Allen probably won't ever be the best deep ball thrower in the league

[transplantbillsfan]

I just don't think Allen is ever going to throw those consistent rainbow dimes that Russell Wilson (best deep ball thrower in the league, IMHO) or even Patrick Mahomes throw.

 

But ya know what... that's okay.

 

First of all, the reason I don't think he reaches that point is his tendency to throw a flat ball on those traditional (using that word on purpose... I'll get back to it) "bombs" QBs throw. Now... I think Allen is accurate enough on his deep balls and I think he can get better, but I just don't think he'll ever be the league's best.

 

But once again, that's okay.

 

I think Allen is already up there with Rodgers as the most accurate intermediate passer in the NFL. Here's a good example:

 

...but wait... that's a pass that traveled nearly 40 yards in the air without Allen’s feet planted as he's running to his right. Wouldn't that be a "deep ball" for a bunch of NFL QBs? Yet Allen throws a dime with such ease.

 

So while I think we will occasionally get upset for missed bombs down the field from Allen that he probably should have hit (week 1 to Manny Sanders... though that one was really only off by a yard or 2), we can rejoice that we have what looks like one of the most accurate intermediate passers in the NFL... and that intermediate range appears to be anything up to 35-40 yards beyond the LOS.

 

Pretty impressive if ya ask me 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

21 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I just don't think Allen is ever going to throw those consistent rainbow dimes that Russell Wilson (best deep ball thrower in the league, IMHO) or even Patrick Mahomes throw.

 

But ya know what... that's okay.

 

First of all, the reason I don't think he reaches that point is his tendency to throw a flat ball on those traditional (using that word on purpose... I'll get back to it) "bombs" QBs throw. Now... I think Allen is accurate enough on his deep balls and I think he can get better, but I just don't think he'll ever be the league's best.

 

But once again, that's okay.

 

I think Allen is already up there with Rodgers as the most accurate intermediate passer in the NFL. Here's a good example:

 

...but wait... that's a pass that traveled nearly 40 yards in the air without Allen’s feet planted as he's running to his right. Wouldn't that be a "deep ball" for a bunch of NFL QBs? Yet Allen throws a dime with such ease.

 

So while I think we will occasionally get upset for missed bombs down the field from Allen that he probably should have hit (week 1 to Manny Sanders... though that one was really only off by a yard or 2), we can rejoice that we have what looks like one of the most accurate intermediate passers in the NFL... and that intermediate range appears to be anything up to 35-40 yards beyond the LOS.

 

Pretty impressive if ya ask me 

I think he tries to laser them in to keep them out of the wind...that deep ball he floated to diggs early in the game drifted way right in the wind.  Dude was hitting frequent bombs his rookie season to Robert foster of all people 🤣 

[Big Turk]

Those rollout throws that he puts into tiny windows with perfect ball placement are almost unbelievable. The ball looks like it is a frozen rope that just hovers in the air.

[Utah John]

Some of the greatest basketball centers couldn't shoot free throws well.  None of their shot motions -- either a close-in pop or a set shot from 10 feet -- worked.  Sometimes they tried backing up from the free throw line so they could take a shot that fit their bodies.

 

Maybe Josh's problem is that he doesn't have optimal mechanics on what would be range-stretching deep throws for most QBs.  When he throws a 40 yard pass, it's a laser, and that doesn't work for deep throws where he needs air under the ball so the receiver can track it and make adjustments.  He has great touch on shorter passes but not on that range.  Maybe he needs to let the receivers get farther downfield, and then unleash a 60-70 yard arc the receiver can run under.  DBs won't believe they need to cover WRs that far.

[transplantbillsfan]

13 minutes ago, Utah John said:

Some of the greatest basketball centers couldn't shoot free throws well.  None of their shot motions -- either a close-in pop or a set shot from 10 feet -- worked.  Sometimes they tried backing up from the free throw line so they could take a shot that fit their bodies.

 

Maybe Josh's problem is that he doesn't have optimal mechanics on what would be range-stretching deep throws for most QBs.  When he throws a 40 yard pass, it's a laser, and that doesn't work for deep throws where he needs air under the ball so the receiver can track it and make adjustments.  He has great touch on shorter passes but not on that range.  Maybe he needs to let the receivers get farther downfield, and then unleash a 60-70 yard arc the receiver can run under.  DBs won't believe they need to cover WRs that far.

 

You honestly might be right... maybe we need to really give him some 7 step drops with max protect and let him chuck the ball 60-70 yards down the field more often.

 

Hopefully Stevenson develops into a legit deep threat.

[Doc Brown]

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

[The Wiz]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

Another point to this is Mahomes and Wilson have Hill and Metcalf would can absolutely burn their coverage and have time to adjust to a rainbow throw to them. 

 

I know we have fast wrs but those guys are FAST.

 

I will say Wilson does throw a very accurate deep ball.  I feel like Hill makes the play more than mahomes does on his deep catches. 

Edited September 28, 2021 by The Wiz

[Utah John]

16 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

That throw to Diggs against the Broncos sort of proves my point.  When Allen released the ball he was standing on his own 25 yard line.  Diggs caught it at the other 15 yard line.  60 yards in the air.  It was a very accurate throw but because it had an arc it also gave Diggs a little room to make adjustments, which made it look like the throw itself was the only reason for the accuracy.  Diggs also had a lot to do with it.  Anyway, 60 yards seems to be a good distance for Allen making deep throws.  

[Doc Brown]

34 minutes ago, Utah John said:

That throw to Diggs against the Broncos sort of proves my point.  When Allen released the ball he was standing on his own 25 yard line.  Diggs caught it at the other 15 yard line.  60 yards in the air.  It was a very accurate throw but because it had an arc it also gave Diggs a little room to make adjustments, which made it look like the throw itself was the only reason for the accuracy.  Diggs also had a lot to do with it.  Anyway, 60 yards seems to be a good distance for Allen making deep throws.  

There was another throw of about 60 yards against the Chiefs in the regular season game last year to Diggs that went threw his hands in the back of the endzone.  It would've been a tough catch but the ball placement was perfect with the right arc.

 

There's been a lot of throws over the last few years where a WR gets a little separation 25 to 40 yards down the field with no safety help and Josh doesn't put enough air under it to let the WR make a play on the ball.  The most glaring example I can remember is against the Ravens in 2019 in the 1st quarter where John Brown had a couple of steps about 30 yards down the field and Josh threw the ball too much on a rope and overthrew him.  Just throw the ball a little farther with some arc and Brown easily has a touchdown.  You saw the same thing to Sanders against Pittsburgh.  It's a difficult problem to fix but I think if there's any QB who could fix it.  It's Allen.

Edited September 28, 2021 by Doc Brown

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

Having applied real science to the trajectory curve of Allen's sweet spot inverted-fish alpha* curvature, aka 'projected force v. finesse under duress, 1983 mk.2', Allen should come into prime in year 23, with an apex approaching week 12, 2041- projections indicate likely a Wednesday. However, the ensuing morale curve is a lagging figure, with optimum results on March 15'th 2046. Using the deductive coefficient, we can safely assume to tune out the Buffalo Bills until at least 2038, with an optimum 'check for relevance' window beginning in approximately 2043, August. 

 

*real scientific term

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Really?

 

Give us a championship and nothing else matters 

 

3 games and you throw in the towel?

 

 

Quote

Allen shook off his early season inconsistencies with a career-high-matching five touchdowns (four passing, one rushing), and his completion rate jumped from 56 through two games to 62. With 358 yards passing, he improved to 9-0 when topping 300, and the offense generated 481 yards after combining for just 685 in opening the season 1-1.

https://wtop.com/washington-football/2021/09/bills-allen-led-attack-finds-swagger-in-rout-of-washington/

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Jesus. 
 

you ain’t seen nothing yet. 
 

Imagine Josh

 

For a decade or more 🤔  

Edited September 28, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[maryland-bills-fan]

Folks,  time for a little physics lesson here.   The laws of gravity are real but most people, and that includes physics students, do not really comprehend them.  Skipping the equations and the simple differential equations, a summary is this.   The distance that an object drops depends upon the square of the time that it is in the gravitation field.  That is time (sec) X time(sec).   .... There is a "free fall calculator" ( https://www.omnicalculator.com/physics/free-fall  ) that can do these calculations for you. ... (These are for a small object without wind resistance to forward motion, or the football "sailing" and floating down slower than a little piece of lead).  Anyway lets compare how far the object sinks (arcs) if it travels the same forward distance in different times-  that is it is thrown faster or slower.

1.5 second to get there ====== drops 36'

1.0 seconds ==============drops 16'

0.75 seconds=============drops 9'

 

The drop is from the highest spot the ball rose to compared to where it was caught.  The ball always is thrown upwards to start.

 

Allen throws a fast ball, it doesn't spend much time in the air and doesn't get real high and doesn't have much drop.  A good thing is that in windy conditions, a side wind or wind from behind or against, does not have much time to change where the ball is going.  That is a good thing. Especially in Buffalo.

 

The fastball  is not in the air very long, which does not give much time for the defensive back to react to the ball and knock it down. That is a good thing.

 

If a linebacker is between the QB and WR, they can knock down/catch the pass IF they are not in the right spot.  If they are NOT in the right spot, then hey have little time to recover and get in the way.  So the QB can sling it fast and "thread" it between DB's OR float it over the LB heads with arc but give the DB more time to break on the ball.

 

On the long balls, a weak arm QB, will throw a rainbow that can drop down over the DB and this is good if the DB is beat by speed and running directly away from the QB.  Another way to work is for the WR to be running across the field and then a slow arcing ball is a bad thing because the DB can recover. A fast pass can go to the WR easier.  Notice how many passes Allen throws that way.

 

I disagree that Allen will never be a good long ball passer.  He has enough "touch" to throw the sideline fade and can throw the rainbow to the WR running directly away from him to a burner WR. For many QB that is their only long ball.  He does not do that many of those plays but rather uses deep breaks to achieve the same thing.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by maryland-bills-fan

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

16 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I disagree that Allen will never be a good long ball passer.  He has enough "touch" to throw the sideline fade and can throw the rainbow to the WR running directly away from him to a burner WR. For many QB that is their only long ball.  He does not do that many of those plays but rather uses deep breaks to achieve the same thing.

I was saying yesterday that I am no longer worried about 3rd and 15 (or more)

 

why? Because “inaccurate” Josh can do it way more than not. 
 

his conversion rate is far better than many if not all on 3rd and 15+
 

and not Hail Mary plays or one’s gotten by flags 

[Matt_In_NH]

When Josh is "on" he can hit anything.  The only issue I see is he is not always "on" but during his career we have seen a dramatic improvement of this.  My opinion is he tends to put a lot of pressure on himself and that is not good for his performance but when he is relaxed he is money.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

28 minutes ago, mattynh said:

When Josh is "on" he can hit anything.  The only issue I see is he is not always "on" but during his career we have seen a dramatic improvement of this.  My opinion is he tends to put a lot of pressure on himself and that is not good for his performance but when he is relaxed he is money.

 

Favreian when he was on, he was on 

when he was off …. My god he was bad. 
 

I’ve yet to see Josh have a bad Favre like game (matured - not rookie road bumps)

[pocoboy]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Pretty impressive if ya ask me 

 

The impressive part is the side of his game that was deficient at one point is now a strength, so much so that things he used to do well are now getting criticized by detractors and "we need it all now" fans...

 

If you hit 1/3 long passes, you've done well. It won't be long where at least 1 of the misses will draw flags based on reputation...

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

5 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

He's shown the ability to do it.  

 

 

He usually misses but I wouldn't bet against Josh Allen in somehow fixing it.

thats it, he needs Denver Wyoming type thin air 🤷‍♂️ 

1 hour ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

I was saying yesterday that I am no longer worried about 3rd and 15 (or more)

 

why? Because “inaccurate” Josh can do it way more than not. 
 

his conversion rate is far better than many if not all on 3rd and 15+
 

and not Hail Mary plays or one’s gotten by flags 

I remember in maybe 2019, it was 3rd and 15 from their own maybe 5? He stood in the the end zone a d delivered a 20 yard out to zay or smoke. I felt then at that moment  the days of 3rd and 5 or more being a guaranteed punt were over. 

[The Jokeman]

Honestly, I'd prefer Josh make the short throws and keep the clock moving and drives alive etc. As watching Brady and Manning to me that's how you win. Bombs are great but sustaining a long drive to me is football at it's best. 

[zow2]

We talked about it the past 2 years. His deep balls need a higher trajectory (ala Russell Wilson) or arc as the OP mentioned.  

That way WRs can run under them and it’s much harder for DB’s to knock the ball away with an out stretched arm.

But yeah, on the intermediate throws and roll outs Josh is money.