The Edmunds Report - Week 3, WTF's v. Bills, 09/26/21

[NoHuddleKelly12]

On 9/27/2021 at 10:06 PM, Freddie's Dead said:

Since Edmunds is still getting so much hate, I'm going to do this weekly.  The PIT game convinced me that much of the Edmunds hate is undeserved, but I want to see if I'm missing anything.  I'll use the same point system -1, 0, +1, and keep a running total.  I'll ignore plays where he's not involved and only look at coverage if he's onscreen (I don't have the All-22).  I'll also flag plays for the haterz so they can skip the rest.  Let's go to the tape.

 

WTF 1st possession

1st and 10, WTF 21.  Run off RT, TE overruns the hole, blocked out (HATERZ PLAY), 9 yard gain (-1,-1)

3rd and 2, WTF 29.  McKissic comes out, throws a pick on TE, draws the OPI after first down by McLaurin (+1,0)

3rd and 12, WTF 19.  TE covers Logan Thomas in flat, makes tackle 1 yard short of first down (+1,+1)

 

WTF 2nd possession

3rd and 8, WTF 37.  TE blitzes, but peels off to cover RB in the flat, Muffler goes to Logan Thomas, fumble (+1,+2)

 

WTF 3rd possession

1st and 10, WTF 25.  TE blitzes, doesn't get there, 10 yard reception (0,+2)

1st and 10, WTF 35.  Run, TE blocked at point of attack, 4 yard gain (0,+2)

2nd and 6, WTF 39.  TE drops into coverage on the right, Muffler throws left, Poyer INT (0,+2)

 

WTF 4th possession

1st and 10, WTF 25.  TE calls a line shift, Gibson up the gut, stuffed by TE in the hole for 2 yards (+1,+3)

2nd and 8, WTF 27.  TE drops into coverage, screen to Gibson, TE blocked 11 yards downfield by 79 (HATERZ PLAY), turns to chase Gibson, runs into a pile of people (-1,+2) You know the rest, complete Bills D collapse, 73 yard TD

 

WTF 5th possession

1st and 10, BUF 24.  WR end around, TE blocked backward at point of attack, 7 yard gain (-1,+1)

2nd and 3, BUF 17.  Gibson sweep, TE pursues down line, Poyer 1 yard TFL (0,+1)

3rd and 4, BUF 18.  TE drops into short zone, covers 13, then slides to 17, Logan Thomas settles in seam behind TE, 15 yard completion (0,+1)

2nd and goal, BUF 3.  TE drops into coverage, Muffler takes off and beats everyone to the pylon (0,+1) 

 

WTF 6th possession

1st and 10, WTF 25.  TE drops into coverage, Muffler chased OB, 1 yard gain (0,+1)

2nd and 9, WTF 26.  TE drops into coverage, Gibson sweep TFL by Cookie (0,+1)

3rd and 10, WTF 25.  TE drops into coverage, Muffler complete to 13, TE WITH THE STUFF, laying the lumber on 13, 3 yards short of 1st down (+1,+2)

 

WTF 7th possession

1st and 10, WTF 25.  TE drops, McKissic run, TE blocked 5 yards downfield (HATERZ PLAY), 10 yards, 1st down (-1,+1)

1st and 10, WTF 35.  TE drops into coverage on Logan Thomas, Muffler throws it, Thomas tips it, Taron Johnson INT.  Did not see the holding call on TE, which was declined, looked like he had good coverage otherwise (0,+1)

1st and 10, WTF 41.  TE covers McKissic in the flat, Muffler throws to McKissic, 4 yard gain (0,+1)

 

1st half observations:

 

1.  Up and down half for TE.

2.  I flagged three HATERZ PLAYs that the haterz will use to talk down TE.

3.  Neither Rapelisberger nor Muffler threw much TE's way in coverage.  Those who keep saying that TE is terrible in coverage need to show us some tape, 'cause I'm not seeing it.

 

WTF 8th Possession

1st and 10, WTF 40.  TE on a delayed blitz, Muffler with 1st down completion to McLaurin (0,+1)

1st and 10, BUF 45.  McKissic run, TE sets edge, McK cuts inside, 5 yard run (0,+1)

2nd and 5, BUF 40.  Jet sweep, TE chases down the line, cleans up the 5 yard TFL with Hyde (+1,+2) 

3rd and 10, BUF 45.  TE in coverage on Logan Thomas, Muffler throws incomplete to WR left (+1,+3)

 

WTF 9th possession

1st and 15, WTF 5.  Gibson run, TE sheds a block, dives for the tackle but Gibson fakes him out his jockstrap (HATERZ PLAY, but can't lie, TE looked stupid on this one), 7 yard gain (-1,+2)

2nd and 8, WTF 12.  TE drops, Muffler goes past LOS and throws, illegal forward pass, loss of down (+1,+3)

3rd and 13, WTF 7.  TE drops, Muffler throws his way, and Hyde makes the pick.  It looks like TE baited him into the INT, something I saw another poster complain about, that TE never "baits" the QB.  Sure looks like he did there (+1,+4)

 

WTF 10th possession

1st and 10, WTF 25.  TE washed out a bit, 3 yard run gain (0,+4)

 

WTF 11th possession

1st and 10, WTF 1.  TE piles into line, 1 yard run (0,+4)

2nd and 9, WTF 2.  TE drops, Muffler does not throw his way yet again, dropped pass (0,+4)

3rd and 9, WTF 2.  TE drops, Muffler hits McKissic on safety valve, jukes TE for first down (HATERZ PLAY, but agree, TE needs to make that tackle short of the sticks) (-1,+3)

1st and 10, WTF 14.  TE drops, Muffler pulls it down and scrambles for 7 (0,+3)

2nd and 3, WTF 21.  Muffler with the play action, throws and TREMAINE EDMUNDS, WITH THE REJECTION! (in my best Marv Albert)  Great play by TE, Muffler caught the rejection, and TE cleaned up with a 1 yard TFL (+1,+4)

3rd and 5, WTF 20.  TE drops, Muffler pulls it down after finding no one open, and dives short of 1st down (0,+4)

4th and 1, WTF 24.  TE plugs up the middle, and Cookie cleans Muffler's clock (+1,+5)

 

WTF 12th possession

1st and 10, WTF 25.  Gibson off-tackle, TE sheds blocks and makes the tackle, 7 yard gain (HATERZ PLAY) (0,+5)

2nd and 3, WTF 32.  Gibson up the gut, TE sheds a block, completely whiffs on the tackle (HATERZ PLAY, but again, TE looked stupid on this one) 1st down run (-1,+4)

2nd and 13, WTF 35.  TE covers Logan again, makes tackle after completion to other receiver (0,+4)

1st and 10, BUF 44.  TE drops, Muffler throws to McLaurin, TE misses the tackle (-1,+3)

 

Conclusions

1.  Edmunds is a good MLB, not great.  The Bills will re-sign him if the price is right.

2.  His coverage skills are excellent.  They rarely throw his way, and when they do, he usually makes the tackle for minimal gain.

3.  The haterz had more fodder with today's game, because there were two plays I saw where TE looked completely stupid.  I didn't see that against PIT.

4.  I thought TE had a better game against the Squeelers than he did against the WTF's.  My grades for TE so far:

 

Squeelers - B+

WTF's - B- 

 

For the haterz, I get it, I was with you.  You see one or two plays that look bad, and you extrapolate to TE's entire body of work.  The best example is coverage skills.  I see the complaints, but outside a TE seam route against PIT, TE is solid in coverage.  If you have examples that prove that wrong, please post.  For now, I'm looking forward to seeing TE get better.  

Appreciate all the time/work you put j to this OP, thank you!

[NewEra]

Big Ben. Brissett.  Heineke.  

20 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That's a fair point in terms of the opponents and overall good post.  I will say that at the time we played each of those 3 teams, they were considerable formidable and expected playoff teams.  We dismantled the Dolphins and knocked their QB out, we pretty much dominated them from start to finish, and were up 14-0 already if not mistaken when we knocked Tua out of the game.  And I don't think the Dolphins are as bad as we made them look either, I think we just are that much better than them.  

 

But still, the quality of QB play we faced doesn't scare anyone really, and those 3 opponents strengths were defense anyway, so still a good point you made of how our defense hasn't been tested yet like it will be against the better offenses in the AFC.  That being said, our defense has at least been dominant in all 3 matchups, which is what you want to see when playing offenses like we did in these first 3 weeks.  

 

I don't disagree about the lack of major splash plays either about Edmunds, I would also like to see more from him in that regard.

 

But I will say this...his draft slot is irrelevant.  Draft slots matter on draft night and negotiating the first contract...after that its pretty meaningless how you got to the team or what draft slot you were taken.  When it comes time to make a decision on resigning him, where he was drafted will literally have zero factor in the decision.  The only thing that matters is 2 things...do Beane and McD agree they want to try and keep him, and then does the value they are willing to pay to keep him align close enough with what Edmunds and his team are willing to take to stay.  

 

 

I agree with all of this……but the Bills defense being “dominant” in all 3 games.  We allowed the Steelers to score on every possession in the 2nd half of the game.  Every.  Possession.  That’s not dominant.  We played a dominant 1st half of defense and a poor 2nd half.  The Steelers scored 10 points in an entire game…..vs the Cinci
d.  17 in the entire game vs the raiders.  16 in the 2nd half vs our D.  
 

sorry, but I had to point this out.  Our D couldn’t get off the field the entire 2nd half vs a terrible offense.  That was painful for me to watch. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Big Ben. Brissett.  Heineke.  

I agree with all of this……but the Bills defense being “dominant” in all 3 games.  We allowed the Steelers to score on every possession in the 2nd half of the game.  Every.  Possession.  That’s not dominant.  We played a dominant 1st half of defense and a poor 2nd half.  The Steelers scored 10 points in an entire game…..vs the Cinci
d.  17 in the entire game vs the raiders.  16 in the 2nd half vs our D.  
 

sorry, but I had to point this out.  Our D couldn’t get off the field the entire 2nd half vs a terrible offense.  That was painful for me to watch. 

 

While there is truth to that it was just the Steelers hitting a couple of big plays. The deep ball to Claypool and the touchdown to Johnson Bills defenders couldn't have played those snaps much better. Sometimes you do just have to tip your hat to the other team. I said before the season week 1 was the worst week to play Pittsburgh. Does not look like I will be wrong on that.

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While there is truth to that it was just the Steelers hitting a couple of big plays. The deep ball to Claypool and the touchdown to Johnson Bills defenders couldn't have played those snaps much better. Sometimes you do just have to tip your hat to the other team. I said before the season week 1 was the worst week to play Pittsburgh. Does not look like I will be wrong on that.

Fair point.  I just don’t think our defense was dominant vs the steelers.  Dominant 1st half, absolutely.  
 

Looks like the the Steelers DC focused his entire offseason on stopping the Bills week 1 and forgot about the rest of the league.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Appreciate the work by the OP.

But PFF just downgraded Edmunds even further. I think last week he was 58th and now ranked 69th out of 83 linebackers.  They still have Milano #2 overall and #1 LB in pass coverage.

 

The PFF ranking fits what we see. Edmunds is one of the worst starting linebackers in the league.  

 

[LABILLBACKER]

31 minutes ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Appreciate the work by the OP.

But PFF just downgraded Edmunds even further. I think last week he was 58th and now ranked 69th out of 83 linebackers.  They still have Milano #2 overall and #1 LB in pass coverage.

 

The PFF ranking fits what we see. Edmunds is one of the worst starting linebackers in the league.  

 

69th is embarrassing yet accurate. What's more astounding is his cult following grows. 

[Lv-Bills]

22 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

We've gone from "I don't see any splash plays" to "I want him to physically dominate and wreck a game".  OK.  I think you've set an impossibly high bar for 49 to meet, but that's your right.  I used to buy into that logic, thinking that Edmunds was terrible, picking out the plays where he does look terrible and magnifying them to the point where I excluded all else.  The tape review has belied some of that.  Edmunds makes as many good plays as he does bad ones.  To me, a third down stop is a game-changing play, because it creates a turnover in the form of a punt.  You don't see it that way, and that's fine.  We're clearly just gonna disagree on this.

As a longtime high school football defensive coordinator, making a play you are supposed to make, is your job/assignment.  That stuff is expected of a starter whether its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th down.  

 

Being the most physically intimidating, and built, football player on your team....and arguably in the entire league....but being a finesse player is a letdown.  Period.

 

For the 50th time, it doesn't make him a bad player, but it's extremely frustrating that he isn't a game wrecker that his physical stature hints he should be.

 

It's as simple as that.    

[Logic]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Appreciate the work by the OP.

But PFF just downgraded Edmunds even further. I think last week he was 58th and now ranked 69th out of 83 linebackers.  They still have Milano #2 overall and #1 LB in pass coverage.

 

The PFF ranking fits what we see. Edmunds is one of the worst starting linebackers in the league.  

 

 

Do you actually think this?

[Big C]

3 hours ago, NewEra said:

Fair point.  I just don’t think our defense was dominant vs the steelers.  Dominant 1st half, absolutely.  
 

Looks like the the Steelers DC focused his entire offseason on stopping the Bills week 1 and forgot about the rest of the league.  

That overturned pick by Tre changed the complexion of the game. It was a super soft call and it led directly to that great catch by Claypool which gave them the momentum. 

[Don Otreply]

On 9/27/2021 at 7:54 PM, kjack151 said:

Great job!  I appreciate an objective evaluation.  I recall when some folks were complaining about Star’s Lotulelei not producing on the field.  We all saw what happened last year when he wasn’t there. It’s not all about spectacular plays

This^^^
 

To me it appears more and more it’s the fantasy guys that think what they  see in pretend football is what happens in real football, some of these guys obviously blur the lines, after a while the all start sound like The nozzle that said that the WFT was gonna beat up on Josh and the Bills, iirc his name is Nick Wright??? 
 

Go Bills!!!

[Big C]

Also of note: Joe B put out his all 22 review on The Athletic and noted that Tremaine was excellent in pass coverage. Brought up how Poyer’s pick was thanks to Edmunds taking away Heinecke’s intended target and forced him to panic and throw that duck in another direction. 
 

He says a lot of what Tremaine does for the defense doesn’t show up on the stat sheet and that’s also what some of us have been arguing here. He’s big and can cover a lot of ground in a hurry which makes him a very good piece in a defense that’s designed to stop the pass in a league that continues to be more pass happy.

[Big Turk]

So here is the question I will ask those who say TE is a liability.

 

How can a team field a top 5 defense for the vast majority of the time he has been on this team if the QB of the defense(him) "sucks"?

 

That just doesn't compute to me, sorry. I don't think it's possible.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Big Turk

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Appreciate the work by the OP.

But PFF just downgraded Edmunds even further. I think last week he was 58th and now ranked 69th out of 83 linebackers.  They still have Milano #2 overall and #1 LB in pass coverage.

 

The PFF ranking fits what we see. Edmunds is one of the worst starting linebackers in the league.  

 

It’s pff Ethan,  the have repeatedly shown themselves to have no credibility,  the OP has just shown you and the rest of us what is actually happening in games, yet so many persist on believing that all plays are splash, or the player sucks, well, at some point or another they might start to realize that the vast majority of plays are not splash plays… yet are incredibly important to overall success, oh well..,

 

Go Bills!!!

[Freddie's Dead]

8 minutes ago, Big C said:

Also of note: Joe B put out his all 22 review on The Athletic and noted that Tremaine was excellent in pass coverage. Brought up how Poyer’s pick was thanks to Edmunds taking away Heinecke’s intended target and forced him to panic and throw that duck in another direction. 
 

He says a lot of what Tremaine does for the defense doesn’t show up on the stat sheet and that’s also what some of us have been arguing here. He’s big and can cover a lot of ground in a hurry which makes him a very good piece in a defense that’s designed to stop the pass in a league that continues to be more pass happy.

 

49's coverage abilities really stand out once you review the tape.  They simply don't throw his way, and when they do, it's a minimal gain (save the PIT tight end seam route that went for 24 yards week 1).  You can also see them think about it, pull the ball down, then throw it elsewhere.  

23 minutes ago, Lv-Bills said:

As a longtime high school football defensive coordinator, making a play you are supposed to make, is your job/assignment.  That stuff is expected of a starter whether its 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th down.  

 

Being the most physically intimidating, and built, football player on your team....and arguably in the entire league....but being a finesse player is a letdown.  Period.

 

For the 50th time, it doesn't make him a bad player, but it's extremely frustrating that he isn't a game wrecker that his physical stature hints he should be.

 

It's as simple as that.    

 

It's Dave Mason time.

[Solomon Grundy]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Appreciate the work by the OP.

But PFF just downgraded Edmunds even further. I think last week he was 58th and now ranked 69th out of 83 linebackers.  They still have Milano #2 overall and #1 LB in pass coverage.

 

The PFF ranking fits what we see. Edmunds is one of the worst starting linebackers in the league.  

 

Pro Football Foxus

[Lv-Bills]

10 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

It’s pff Ethan,  the have repeatedly shown themselves to have no credibility,  the OP has just shown you and the rest of us what is actually happening in games, yet so many persist on believing that all plays are splash, or the player sucks, well, at some point or another they might start to realize that the vast majority of plays are not splash plays… yet are incredibly important to overall success, oh well..,

 

Go Bills!!!

So let me get this straight.  PFF covers football ad nauseum, yet they suck.  Their opinion is garbage, right?  But we have an internet poster, that I've seen so many people in this post call "objective" analysis, even though it's the furthest thing from objective.  Which is OK.  It's the OP's viewpoint on what he saw.  It's not objective either.  They make think it is, but there all kinds of hints to a subjective viewpoint.  The OP's analysis, is totally the definition of subjective.  PFF and the OP both have put out subjective analysis, and of course, some of you are using each entity to support your own side of the argument citing whichever analysis you agree with as objective.

 

LOL.  Completely laughable.  And note....please note.....I gave no opinion on which subjective analysis I think is correct (OP or PFF).  That makes this post completely OBJECTIVE as it relates to both the OP or PFF being wrong or right about Edmunds.  I'm calling either one right or wrong, but drawing my own conclusions about what each one has put out there.

 

 

Edited September 29, 2021 by Lv-Bills

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Lv-Bills said:

So let me get this straight.  PFF covers football ad nauseum, yet they suck.  Their opinion is garbage, right?  But we have an internet poster, that I've seen so many people in this post call "objective" analysis, even though it's the furthest thing from objective.  The OP's analysis, is totally the definition of subjective.  PFF and the OP both have put out subjective analysis, and of course, some of you are using each entity to support your own side of the argument citing whichever analysis you agree with as objective.

 

LOL.  Completely laughable.  And note....please note.....I gave no opinion on which subjective analysis I think is correct.  That makes this post completely OBJECTIVE as it relates to both the OP or PFF being wrong or right about Edmunds.

 

 

The OP’s analysis is exactly how PFF compiles their player grades.

[Lv-Bills]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

The OP’s analysis is exactly how PFF compiles their player grades.

And are both completely subjective because someone is grading them based on their opinion.

Edited September 29, 2021 by Lv-Bills

[GoBills808]

Just now, Lv-Bills said:

And are both completely subjective.

At least OP shows his work. It’s unclear whether PFF graders have any real football experience, either in analysis or playing.

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, NewEra said:

Big Ben. Brissett.  Heineke.  

I agree with all of this……but the Bills defense being “dominant” in all 3 games.  We allowed the Steelers to score on every possession in the 2nd half of the game.  Every.  Possession.  That’s not dominant.  We played a dominant 1st half of defense and a poor 2nd half.  The Steelers scored 10 points in an entire game…..vs the Cinci
d.  17 in the entire game vs the raiders.  16 in the 2nd half vs our D.  
 

sorry, but I had to point this out.  Our D couldn’t get off the field the entire 2nd half vs a terrible offense.  That was painful for me to watch. 

Fair point, week 1 was mixed reviews, but our offense stalling out did them no favors either.  
 

Still the D only gave up 16 points total, but you make a fair point about the 2nd half.