The Edmunds Report - Week 3, WTF's v. Bills, 09/26/21

[Alphadawg7]

25 minutes ago, Lv-Bills said:

I agree with a lot of what is said here.  Except, we have no idea how good our defense is right now.  We've played Big Ben, Tua, Brissett, and Heinicke.  Next week is Davis Mills.  We will find out a lot about our defense when we play real teams......at KC and at Tennessee back to back.  

 

And after next week, what gets a bit frustrating, is when you have a physical specimen the size of Edmunds never really making physical, game changing plays or splash plays.  Everyone can throw all of the stupid stats at me as much as they want, but I want my high draft pick, that is naturally built like an un-earthly god, to make a few physical splash plays a game and intimidate the opposing team and it's offense.   Edmunds looks like a  guy that should be able to single handedly neutralize Henry from Tennessee, but that is probably not going to happen. 

 

He doesn't do that.  He's a freakishly built specimen that is a finesse player thus far, and that just leaves a huge wanting for more by everyone.  That being said, he's nowhere near a bad football player.  He's also not nearly as good as his reputation right now either.

 

That's a fair point in terms of the opponents and overall good post.  I will say that at the time we played each of those 3 teams, they were considerable formidable and expected playoff teams.  We dismantled the Dolphins and knocked their QB out, we pretty much dominated them from start to finish, and were up 14-0 already if not mistaken when we knocked Tua out of the game.  And I don't think the Dolphins are as bad as we made them look either, I think we just are that much better than them.  

 

But still, the quality of QB play we faced doesn't scare anyone really, and those 3 opponents strengths were defense anyway, so still a good point you made of how our defense hasn't been tested yet like it will be against the better offenses in the AFC.  That being said, our defense has at least been dominant in all 3 matchups, which is what you want to see when playing offenses like we did in these first 3 weeks.  

 

I don't disagree about the lack of major splash plays either about Edmunds, I would also like to see more from him in that regard.

 

But I will say this...his draft slot is irrelevant.  Draft slots matter on draft night and negotiating the first contract...after that its pretty meaningless how you got to the team or what draft slot you were taken.  When it comes time to make a decision on resigning him, where he was drafted will literally have zero factor in the decision.  The only thing that matters is 2 things...do Beane and McD agree they want to try and keep him, and then does the value they are willing to pay to keep him align close enough with what Edmunds and his team are willing to take to stay.  

 

 

[Freddie's Dead]

42 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Wanna start severely overpaying players again?  The best teams in the league get players on discounts, not 20-50% over value 

 

One man's severely overpaid is another man's bargain.

[Freddie's Dead]

1 hour ago, thenorthremembers said:

I'd say its a bit of hyperbole to say Fletcher was run out of town.  While he was here he was a very well respected member of the team.   It's also hyperbole to say Preston Brown was run out of town.  The fact is he just wasnt very good, and didnt fit in a defense that needed athletic linebackers.

 

How would you characterize it then?  London Fletcher spent 7 more years with the 'skins, at the top of the league in tackles every year.  But sure, they were downfield.  Don't forget that he singlehandedly derailed the Bills 2011 season when he hit Fitz so hard he cracked his ribs.  One of the stupidest moves the Bills ever made.  It started a merry-go-round of wasted draft picks to find the next MLB.  Now that we've got a good one, the same arguments are being ginned up to run 49 out of town.  I don't want a ticket for that ride again.

[NewEra]

10 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

One man's severely overpaid is another man's bargain.

💯 

 

I just don’t see how Edmunds will ever be considered a bargain on his next contract.  Especially if he leaves Buffalo.  Even if he improves dramatically, I don’t see how he’d be a bargain @16M+ per.  

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, NewEra said:

No offense taken.  I’m just discussing the future.  My frustration with him has nothing to do with his play this season.  Or even last.  I just see him as a lesser player than you do.  He’s not being overpaid right now, so I have no qualms about him.   
 

I think paying a MLB over 15M a year in general is nuts. Let alone a LB that isn’t worth nearly 15M. Maybe 10M imo.  Winning a super bowl is serious business to me.  As I’m sure it is to you.  I have my opinion that overpaying players, especially at lesser positions, can be a substantial burden to teams in the SB mix.   I don’t want his ridiculous contract to him to keep us from keeping/signing/ players at other positions.  
 

I thought the world of the kid when we drafted him.  I still think the world of his character.  Just not a fan of paying him what he’ll get on the open market.  It’s just part of the discussion revolving one of our “cornerstone” players. 

 

And honestly, I am 100% in agreement with you.  I do NOT want to over pay him or any player for that matter.  

 

As far as Edmunds goes, don't get me wrong, I don't see him as irreplaceable, and I dont even take exception to criticism of him because he has earned his fair share of them.  I do think he has more untapped upside as well still though.  The only thing I am taking exception to is the claims by others he is "terrible", "a bad player", "worst LB in the NFL" that I have seen others claim all of which he clearly is not and is a gross exaggeration.  Not to mention a thread claiming picking up his option was a mistake by Beane.

[Lv-Bills]

14 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

It's only you and me and we just disagree....

 

I saw four plays that 49 made one-on-one.  He stopped Gibson in the hole for a 2 yard gain, he tackled Logan Thomas and #13 short of a first down, and he rejected Muffler's pass, that Muffler then caught, and 49 cleaned up with a 1 yard TFL.  How many one-on-one plays should he make a game?  Do you have a %age of snaps that would be acceptable?

No, and again, stats have no bearing on what I said.  None.  Who doesn't make a 1 on 1 play, or multiple one on ones at some point in a football game?  They all do.  I want Edmunds to play as physical as his size.  These are things that aren't measured by stats geeks or analytics.  Analytics and stats have a huge place in sports, but so does common sense and your eyes.  If you get a guy that is as physically gifted as Edmunds, you would want him to singlehandedly wreck a game or maybe two by himself on a given years schedule.  Bruce Smith vs. Phil Hansen.  Hansen was a nice player.  Smith was a game wrecker.

 

I want Edmunds to be so physically dominant in some games that he is pretty much the reason a team has folded.  Unfortunately for him his size, span, and athleticism screams for that to happen.......and then all you get is finesse.  And I'm almost positive that when the Bills drafted Edmunds, they did so knowing how young he was, and how well his body was going to still grow.  That growth, I'm sure, they hoped would turn into all pro physicality, and it just hasn't, or at least it hasn't yet.  It's disappointing.  Not so much disappointing in the man himself, but with his body, you want game changing plays.  Not a stop one on one here and there.....you want him to singlehandedly cave an entire side of the field just because he's so dominant, physical and aggressive.  AJ Klein isn't built to accomplish this, but Edmunds is.  In fact, Matt Milano, who is not as gifted physically as Edmunds, arguably already had one of these types of games this season.

 

Given Edmunds size, when is he going to be the beast that he physically is?  He may never get there, and it doesn't mean he is a bad player.....but it leaves everyone wanting more......always.  

[BigAl2526]

Who is "Muffler"  I thought the WFT QB was Taylor Heineke.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And honestly, I am 100% in agreement with you.  I do NOT want to over pay him or any player for that matter.  

 

As far as Edmunds goes, don't get me wrong, I don't see him as irreplaceable, and I dont even take exception to criticism of him because he has earned his fair share of them.  I do think he has more untapped upside as well still though.  The only thing I am taking exception to is the claims by others he is "terrible", "a bad player", "worst LB in the NFL" that I have seen others claim all of which he clearly is not and is a gross exaggeration.  Not to mention a thread claiming picking up his option was a mistake by Beane.

 

What is the appropriate pay scale for the guy?  AJ Klein makes 6M per year.  Jaylon Smiths AAV is like 12, but the final 2 years of the 6 year deal are voidable.  Cunningham and Jack both make about 14-15.  I'm not sure where he would fall tbh.  

[NewEra]

13 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And honestly, I am 100% in agreement with you.  I do NOT want to over pay him or any player for that matter.  

 

As far as Edmunds goes, don't get me wrong, I don't see him as irreplaceable, and I dont even take exception to criticism of him because he has earned his fair share of them.  I do think he has more untapped upside as well still though.  The only thing I am taking exception to is the claims by others he is "terrible", "a bad player", "worst LB in the NFL" that I have seen others claim all of which he clearly is not and is a gross exaggeration.  Not to mention a thread claiming picking up his option was a mistake by Beane.

I feel similarly.  He’s not terrible or bad.  Just not as good as we had hoped and unlikely to be worth his next contract 

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

What is the appropriate pay scale for the guy?  AJ Klein makes 6M per year.  Jaylon Smiths AAV is like 12, but the final 2 years of the 6 year deal are voidable.  Cunningham and Jack both make about 14-15.  I'm not sure where he would fall tbh.  

 

I honestly don't know, I think its really just too early to know.  New cap is coming, contracts are going to start to shape the market, and his play this year and next will start to shape his value as well.  So for me, I am not really focusing on putting a value on his contract today, there are just too many unknowns including his own play between now and then.  

[Freddie's Dead]

33 minutes ago, Lv-Bills said:

No, and again, stats have no bearing on what I said.  None.  Who doesn't make a 1 on 1 play, or multiple one on ones at some point in a football game?  They all do.  I want Edmunds to play as physical as his size.  These are things that aren't measured by stats geeks or analytics.  Analytics and stats have a huge place in sports, but so does common sense and your eyes.  If you get a guy that is as physically gifted as Edmunds, you would want him to singlehandedly wreck a game or maybe two by himself on a given years schedule.  Bruce Smith vs. Phil Hansen.  Hansen was a nice player.  Smith was a game wrecker.

 

I want Edmunds to be so physically dominant in some games that he is pretty much the reason a team has folded.  Unfortunately for him his size, span, and athleticism screams for that to happen.......and then all you get is finesse.  And I'm almost positive that when the Bills drafted Edmunds, they did so knowing how young he was, and how well his body was going to still grow.  That growth, I'm sure, they hoped would turn into all pro physicality, and it just hasn't, or at least it hasn't yet.  It's disappointing.  Not so much disappointing in the man himself, but with his body, you want game changing plays.  Not a stop one on one here and there.....you want him to singlehandedly cave an entire side of the field just because he's so dominant, physical and aggressive.  AJ Klein isn't built to accomplish this, but Edmunds is.  In fact, Matt Milano, who is not as gifted physically as Edmunds, arguably already had one of these types of games this season.

 

Given Edmunds size, when is he going to be the beast that he physically is?  He may never get there, and it doesn't mean he is a bad player.....but it leaves everyone wanting more......always.  

 

We've gone from "I don't see any splash plays" to "I want him to physically dominate and wreck a game".  OK.  I think you've set an impossibly high bar for 49 to meet, but that's your right.  I used to buy into that logic, thinking that Edmunds was terrible, picking out the plays where he does look terrible and magnifying them to the point where I excluded all else.  The tape review has belied some of that.  Edmunds makes as many good plays as he does bad ones.  To me, a third down stop is a game-changing play, because it creates a turnover in the form of a punt.  You don't see it that way, and that's fine.  We're clearly just gonna disagree on this.

[AuntieEm]

14 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

I hope he'll at least be better in the booth...

"Backpedaling into no man's land" is how you keep Heinicke from throwing it to Logan Thomas down the middle....

 

It's not a glorious role, I know

 

      Some people just need the stats and the eye candy splash plays.  I'm sure there  would be those who would complain if the Bills defense got 0 sacks the rest of the year while only giving up an avg of 10 points to opponents thru the 17 games.   It would be the best ever statistical points against average in the the nfls history  (talking about across every era but no eye candy fantasy driven statlines) and there would be complaints. Now believe me I don't expect the Bills d to be that dominant all season long.

 

     I will be expecting great defense every week going forward until it doesn't.  I can then reflect on how well  or not the unit performed over that span of games.  I'm gonna be basing my disappointment or my elation on the W-L record of the team not the individual accolades to any one player offense or defense including whether or not Josh Allen puts up the MVP season we know he's capable of.  If some  switch flips for TE and he puts up some highlight plays in more upcoming games and we are STILL winning....  great sign me up.  If he suddenly becomes Kuechly 2.0  but the Bills drop a few more losses then no I'd rather TE remain a winning underachiever that helps the bills defense go  than to be a  DPOY or even league mvp candidate at end of year.   That's just me though.

[LABILLBACKER]

38 minutes ago, Lv-Bills said:

No, and again, stats have no bearing on what I said.  None.  Who doesn't make a 1 on 1 play, or multiple one on ones at some point in a football game?  They all do.  I want Edmunds to play as physical as his size.  These are things that aren't measured by stats geeks or analytics.  Analytics and stats have a huge place in sports, but so does common sense and your eyes.  If you get a guy that is as physically gifted as Edmunds, you would want him to singlehandedly wreck a game or maybe two by himself on a given years schedule.  Bruce Smith vs. Phil Hansen.  Hansen was a nice player.  Smith was a game wrecker.

 

I want Edmunds to be so physically dominant in some games that he is pretty much the reason a team has folded.  Unfortunately for him his size, span, and athleticism screams for that to happen.......and then all you get is finesse.  And I'm almost positive that when the Bills drafted Edmunds, they did so knowing how young he was, and how well his body was going to still grow.  That growth, I'm sure, they hoped would turn into all pro physicality, and it just hasn't, or at least it hasn't yet.  It's disappointing.  Not so much disappointing in the man himself, but with his body, you want game changing plays.  Not a stop one on one here and there.....you want him to singlehandedly cave an entire side of the field just because he's so dominant, physical and aggressive.  AJ Klein isn't built to accomplish this, but Edmunds is.  In fact, Matt Milano, who is not as gifted physically as Edmunds, arguably already had one of these types of games this season.

 

Given Edmunds size, when is he going to be the beast that he physically is?  He may never get there, and it doesn't mean he is a bad player.....but it leaves everyone wanting more......always.  

 

29 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I feel similarly.  He’s not terrible or bad.  Just not as good as we had hoped and unlikely to be worth his next contract 

That's the way I feel. Obviously I expected alot more from TE. As LV said we haven't seen any physicality yet. I guess what bothers me the most about Edmunds is his mediocre "instictual" qualities. We know going in he would be raw with a high ceiling and low floor. Alot like Josh. JA is approaching that high ceiling and Tremaine isn't. If you love him as a downfield tackler that's basically what you have. I would be floored if McD signs him to a long term deal near 15-16/yr. There's no way on God's green earth he worth anywhere near that.

[Jester]

Nice write up and thanks for the work but I'm here for the nicknames.  "Cookie" ... 😂

Edited September 28, 2021 by Jester

[Freddie's Dead]

8 minutes ago, Jester said:

Nice write up and thanks for the work but I'm here for the nicknames.  "Cookie" ... 😂

 

1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

Who is "Muffler"  I thought the WFT QB was Taylor Heineke.

 

[BigAl2526]

25 minutes ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

 

Ahh!

 

It figures that the Muffler man is playing for the What the F Team

[MJS]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I will bet you any amount of money that no GM in the NFL would label our 2 time Pro Bowl LB "Bad at his job".   The only people here bad at their job are the people claiming in this thread and the other Edmunds thread that he is terrible, bad at his job, one of the worst in the NFL, etc.  

 

Edmunds is not the best MLB in football, but he is far from the worst and far from being "bad".  And our D is playing at the top of the NFL right now while he is the starting MLB...but some of you talk like our Defense isn't any good and he is the reason.  

 

The amount of egregious over exaggeration is comical at this point about Edmunds.  I have a feeling this is mostly the same crowd that has been mistakenly complaining about Star also not being any good and needing to be cut because they really don't know how to evaluate him properly.  

 

Its like the Edmunds hater crowd sees a play or two a game they feel like he should have made a better decision on or a better play and then decide that represents 100% of his play while they completely ignore all the other positive things he has done.  To see evidence of that, just go to the 20+ page Edmunds thread where they are trying to disregard any positive play and just refocus on some other play they didn't like from him and paint that as the only true representation of him.  

I think what people want are the MLB's of old who stuff runs and make big hits. But the NFL isn't about that anymore. Edmunds is in there for his smarts and his coverage ability. Hitting hard and stuffing runs is the least important thing for him to be doing. The Bills defense sacrifices some run defense and toughness for better pass defense.

 

I agree that he is not an elite guy. I think we have probably seen his ceiling (which isn't bad, since he went to a Pro Bowl for his play).

 

He seems like a guy that might get overpaid in free agency. We'll see how he closes out his contract here. I want to see more.

 

But he certainly is not a bad player and often makes a difference in defending the middle of the field and forcing throws elsewhere.

[wvbillsfan]

appreciate the post
 

Never understood the Edmunds hate. The guys isn’t a downhill thumper. He’s a sideline to sideline player who excels in pass coverage- especially zone

 

Give me that guy in today’s NFL and I’m very happy. 

[Richard Noggin]

21 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

 

I didn't see that.  I saw TE stay in the zone and pursue Muffler after he crossed the LOS.  We just gonna disagree about that play.

Fair enough.

[BigBuff423]

Edmunds, IMHO, is an example of a position or player where people want to see a HOF type of performance or All-Pro and demand that it happen every year. What we, as fans, often struggle with is the idea that in order to have a very good to great 'TEAM' is that you should have 2-3 incredible All-Pro players producing year in and year out, 3-4 very good Pro Bowl worthy players at different positions, and the rest complement each other to be either average to slightly above average *BUT* play well as a team. 

 

As we know, the All-Pro excellent producer usually must be your QB if the team is going to compete every year for a Super Bowl in the modern era of the NFL, and then adding in another one or two positions of similar caliber. For example, the Josh Allen, Diggs, Tre White All-Pro triumvirate and then Dawkins, Milano, T. Johnson, and a DE (Groot / Jerry / AJ, etc.) as the Pro-Bowl players in addition to the previous 3, with the rest of the team playing very, very good team football. But we get so hung up on demanding to see elite production at EVERY position, we forget that's just not how the NFL works. We can go back and look at Super Bowl rosters from previous years and this is typically what we'll observe, IMO. Edmunds is a good MLB, just not Ray Lewis / Luke Kuechly type of MLB but apparently, that's good with McD and Beane because that's how they run their Defense and team. I also agree with some of the other posters in this thread that we have to be careful what we wish for, and I do NOT wish for another turnstile of MLBs to come through Buffalo. 

 

Lastly, let's remember this very important stat, Edmunds is just 23 years old!! He's in his 4th year, but just 23! There is still room for another year or two for him to develop both physically and in understanding the game. Edmunds came into the NFL after declaring as a Junior and was still highly regarded as a LB going into the Draft. Edmunds was the second youngest player ever to be drafted in the NFL at 19 years old!! Just barely 19, but 19 years old!! That's insane. Let's keep that in mind as well. Regardless of where you stand in your opinion, thank you OP for this thread and as always, I appreciate the discourse.