2021 Allen is looking like 2021 Allen

[Mikie2times]

I was the one who made the 2019 Allen thread last week, I wanted to circle back to his incredible performance this week as well as review the outlook with the data we have.

 

The data tells us teams have game planned for the Bills by avoiding the blitz. Understandably so, against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He was one of the best in the NFL. As of Sunday’s game, Allen and the Bills had faced blitzes on just 13.1% of his attempt’s vs 43% and 44%% in 2020 and 2019.

 

Washington doubled down following the same path as Pittsburgh and Miami, reducing Allen’s Blitz against attempts to just 8.7% on the year. The differential year over year is surely the largest in NFL history and is not sustainable but the pattern is clear on how teams wanted to play the Bills. Pressure with your front four and try and make Josh force it.

Teams have actually pressured Allen on the year 30.8% of his attempt’s vs 21.9% in 2020. Teams were getting home and with more people in coverage. The getting home changed against Washington dropping Allen’s pressure rate on the year to just 20.6%. The 10%+ drop now shows better stats than 2020.

 

As far as the game within the game. I think Daboll and Allen did a few things really well. Allen seemed very alert early to check down routes which he has had in both the two previous games as well as understanding he was only facing a 4 man-rush. Our line played well, but Allen was incredible at taking one or two steps to completely allude the rush. He seemed to feel patient in doing so just knowing he can see four lineman and that’s all that’s coming.

 

After he got warmed up you saw the full extent of his ability making nearly every throw imaginable and some that aren’t. Daboll called a reasonably balanced game and is no

doubt game planning against this “no pressure” style defense teams have pulled the first three weeks. Josh and Daboll likely got teams to really think about being more balanced. Excellent adjustments, Josh should start to see more blitzes. It’s punch/counter punch league and we countered in a big way.

 

Just to be clear, I never was being negative to Josh long term or really in that moment. Teams clearly adjusted to us, at the time we failed to beat the adjustment. We will likely see more of that again. Yes, in the future I won't jump the gun too early. Clearly such a massive difference in the way teams are approaching us this year vs last year shows a level of respect that is exciting. Peak potential arrives when no more adjustments exist which I only think can happen when you get studied and get the kitchen sink thrown at you. Perhaps that's the 2021 Allen we will eventually arrive at. 

Edited September 28, 2021 by KzooMike

[HardyBoy]

It seemed like they did something protection wise to give JA an outlet to scramble to his right. The up the middle pressure wasn't there so he could step up and then out over and over. That could have been a matter of the guards playing better for sure, but wondering if it was something they intentionally adjusted to have happen scheme wise. 

[Mikie2times]

13 minutes ago, HardyBoy said:

It seemed like they did something protection wise to give JA an outlet to scramble to his right. The up the middle pressure wasn't there so he could step up and then out over and over. That could have been a matter of the guards playing better for sure, but wondering if it was something they intentionally adjusted to have happen scheme wise. 

I thought it was schemed into the pass pro. From my vantage point the interior rush was getting movement which is why I wasn't screaming at the roof tops over the improved line play, which was certainly improved. Allen just stepped away and up so naturally each time away from the pressure. It will be interesting to see some all 22 breakdown.   

[HardyBoy]

55 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

I thought it was schemed into the pass pro. From my vantage point the interior rush was getting movement which is why I wasn't screaming at the roof tops over the improved line play, which was certainly improved. Allen just stepped away and up so naturally each time away from the pressure. It will be interesting to see some all 22 breakdown.   

 

Yeah, I'm curious what people who understand line play watch the all 22 (I'm talking specifically about me being clueless). If they're basically letting them get pressure to a specific part of the field intentionally, that's not necessarily bad play I would think. Like they know they're going to likely get beat, so basically make it so you intentionally let them beat you to different places intentionally to let JA shift in the pocket for his 3rd and 4th reads/have the plays turn into secondary planned scramble drills. 

 

Wonder if that is what they did last year so successfully, and they tried the first two games to do what Allen worked on over the off-season, and it just wasn't quite there yet. 

 

I remember hearing Allen say that he has a choice in the off-season to learn new stuff or talk to the coaching staff and just keep certain things out of the game plan. Wondering if they ended up going back to what was working more last year with the line, and they're going to put some of those in cutting routes that JA was working on on hold for a bit. My guess is doing that choreographed Okey doke (assuming that's what they're doing) does make the running game more challenging. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

5 hours ago, KzooMike said:

I was the one who made the 2019 Allen thread last week, I wanted to circle back to his incredible performance this week as well as review the outlook with the data we have.

 

The data tells us teams have game planned for the Bills by avoiding the blitz. Understandably so, against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 2 interceptions. He was one of the best in the NFL. As of Sunday’s game, Allen and the Bills had faced blitzes on just 13.1% of his attempt’s vs 43% and 44%% in 2020 and 2019.

 

Washington doubled down following the same path as Pittsburgh and Miami, reducing Allen’s Blitz against attempts to just 8.7% on the year. The differential year over year is surely the largest in NFL history and is not sustainable but the pattern is clear on how teams wanted to play the Bills. Pressure with your front four and try and make Josh force it.

Teams have actually pressured Allen on the year 30.8% of his attempt’s vs 21.9% in 2020. Teams were getting home and with more people in coverage. The getting home changed against Washington dropping Allen’s pressure rate on the year to just 20.6%. The 10%+ drop now shows better stats than 2020.

 

As far as the game within the game. I think Daboll and Allen did a few things really well. Allen seemed very alert early to check down routes which he has had in both the two previous games as well as understanding he was only facing a 4 man-rush. Our line played well, but Allen was incredible at taking one or two steps to completely allude the rush. He seemed to feel patient in doing so just knowing he can see four lineman and that’s all that’s coming.

 

After he got warmed up you saw the full extent of his ability making nearly every throw imaginable and some that aren’t. Daboll called a reasonably balanced game and is no

doubt game planning against this “no pressure” style defense teams have pulled the first three weeks. Josh and Daboll likely got teams to really think about being more balanced. Excellent adjustments, Josh should start to see more blitzes. It’s punch/counter punch league and we countered in a big way.

 

Just to be clear, I never was being negative to Josh long term or really in that moment. Teams clearly adjusted to us, at the time we failed to beat the adjustment. We will likely see more of that again. Yes, in the future I won't jump the gun too early. Clearly such a massive difference in the way teams are approaching us this year vs last year shows a level of respect that is exciting. Peak potential arrives when no more adjustments exist which I only think can happen when you get studied and get the kitchen sink thrown at you. Perhaps that's the 2021 Allen we will eventually arrive at. 

The thing with how teams are game planning against us though is you need a ton of personnel to pull it off...we just saw 2 of the teams that could do it back to back.  Steelers might have had more trouble if we actually played moss although hindsight is 20/20.  Just the front 4 being stout isn't enough...Miami and pit are stacked at so many positions.  Of course we are the only team that saw some TJ watt this year too 🤣 I don't see too many teams left on the schedule that can pull that off defensively...maybe new orleans?

Edited September 28, 2021 by Generic_Bills_Fan