Scouting The Washington Football Team

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Well, it's always a much more enjoyable week after a win and especially a shutout/blowout win over a division rival! Week 1 was a gut punch and beating the Dolphins didn't prove that all our faults are fixed, but it was a great start. This defense, especially the young guys on the defensive line, looks to be for real and are getting much more pressure on the opposing QBs this season than we were used to in 2020. On top of that, Matt Milano and Taron Johnson might be our two best performers in 2021 so far, plenty of splash plays from that duo. The offense and Josh Allen still looked off and both Daboll and the players have some things to clean up. However, it was a much needed bounce back game from the offensive line, Singletary and Moss looked effective, and we scored points/built the lead on sustained drives at the start of both halves which was significant in securing the win. There's still a lot of questions, but the offense did enough to get the win and it's wild to think that a 35-0 win over a team that won ten games last season has elicited a somewhat 'Meh' reaction from the fanbase...goes to show how far the team has come and how our expectations have changed with it. 

 

Looking ahead, we're back at home to take on the Washington Football Team coming off their one-point win against the New York Giants. It's worth noting that this will be the WFT's first road game of the season and also that they will have a rest advantage having played on Thursday Night Football. In general, their offense has overachieved despite some key injuries and their vaunted defense (which ranked #2 in total defense in 2020) has underwhelmed. Our old friend Ryan Fitzpatrick and Curtis Samuel are both on the IR and will miss this match up. Same as the previous weeks/seasons, I wanted to do an amateur deep dive/scouting session into the WFT's last two games based on their game highlights (granted it's not the All-22 film but still nearly an hour of tape) and then list some keys/X-factors for our matchup this week. Anyways, hope you enjoy/find this useful:

 

***Offensive and Defensive Ranks are based on Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average statistics***

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings  ***take these with a huge grain of salt since it has only been two weeks!***

 

Just a quick note that this post for our Week 3 opponent will be a bit different/shorter than the usual format given that we only have the opening two games to go on so far (as the season progresses, I will continue to look at the opponent's three previous games as usual). 

 

Sunday September 12th- Week 1 Home Loss vs. the Los Angeles Chargers (the Chargers (current record: 1-1) have the 20th ranked offense, 20th ranked defense, and 27th ranked special teams) by a score of 20-16:

 

Taylor Heinicke (11/15 for 122 yards, 1 passing TD, and 0 INT with 17 rushing yards)- Heinicke entered the game just before halftime after a hip injury sidelined starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick. Right away, he showed off the mobility and athleticism that gave Tampa Bay fits in the 2020 playoffs, throwing accurately on the move and leading a drive for a FG as time expired in the first half. In the second half, Heinicke showed off his improvisation skills as he escaped pressure and hit McLaurin on a shovel pass for a 17 yard gain. The numbers don't jump off the page, but he limited mistakes and was a steady replacement. The offensive line kept Heinicke upright for the most part (only 1 sack allowed). 

 

WFT Running Game- I always knew Antonio Gibson (90 yards and 4.5 YPC as well as 3 catches for 18 yards) was fast and was a great receiving back, but I never realized how big and physical he actually is. Gibson is skilled at bouncing off would-be tacklers and maintaining his balance to keep moving forward and is very dangerous once he reaches the second level. He proved to be a mismatch for LAC's linebackers on swing passes as well. However, it's fair to argue that Gibson cost Washington this game as he fumbled inside his own five yard line in the fourth quarter, leading to a Chargers TD and a lead they wouldn't relinquish. JD McKissic is a talented and versatile back up for the WFT, but only got one carry for eight yards. WFT drafted Jaret Patterson out of UB in this past draft and he received two carries for nine yards.

 

Terry McLaurin (4 catches for 62 yards)- One of the most underrated playmakers and route runners in the NFL. Was kept quiet during the first half, but brought in an acrobatic catch on a contested deep ball to set up Washington for their first TD. 

 

Dyami Brown (1 catch for -2 yards)- Rookie speedster from UNC who a lot of draft experts had targeted to the Bills. Drew a defensive pass interference call on a deep ball in the second quarter that netted 30+ yards. Brown definitely looks to be a threat down the field if the QB can get it to him, but wasn't a factor in this game otherwise. 

 

Adam Humphries (2 catches for 10 yards)- not heavily involved, but continues to be an underrated slot WR IMO. 

 

Logan Thomas (3 catches for 30 yards and 1 TD)- Former college QB and Buffalo Bill who has really developed into a solid NFL TE and played his way to a nice contract. Out-jumped his man in the end zone for a big TD that gave Washington its first lead in the third quarter.

 

WFT Run Defense- Austin Ekeler (57 yards, 3.8 YPC and 1 TD) and Larry Rountree III (27 yards and 3.4 YPC) gashed the WFT defense on the ground early on especially running off the left tackle. There were a fair share of missed tackles as well. However, it seemed like after the first quarter the Chargers favored a pass heavy approach and the WFT adjusted to stuff the run more effectively. Overall, the Chargers were 14 of 19 on third down as the WFT defense just couldn't get off the field. 

 

WFT Pass Defense- Made a couple splash plays throughout the game, but looked beatable and struggled to cover the Chargers wide receivers and tight ends. Justin Herbert (31/47 for 337 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT) looked very comfortable early on as the WFT pass rush failed to get home on most snaps (only 2 sacks and I didn't notice many pressures on tape). Washington had no answer for Keenan Allen (9 catches for 100 yards) and Jared Cook (5 catches for 56 yards), particularly on crossing and seam routes so I'm hoping Gabe Davis and Dawson Knox will be able to take advantage of this in a similar way with their size and speed. On the positive side, Jonathan Allen was able to sack Herbert on a key 2nd-and-goal play late in the first half that helped to force a FG and Montez Sweat was able to get around the edge and hit Herbert's arm during his throwing motion to force a pivotal incompletion...or at least it should have been. The refs ruled it a fumble that went out of the back of the end zone for a touchback which was a truly awful call IMO given that his arm was clearly moving forward before contact. On the Chargers next possession, LAC was driving deep into Washington territory when Herbert sailed a throw and William Jackson broke on the route and was in perfect position to intercept. However, with about seven minutes left in the fourth quarter, the Chargers received the ball inside their own ten yard line and they proceeded to run out the clock mostly on chunk passing plays between the hashes. WFT couldn't get a stop when it mattered the most. 

 

Miscellaneous- Hopkins missed a key 51 yard field goal attempt wide left in the fourth quarter. WFT averaged 5.3 yards per play (they ran 29 less plays on offense compared to LAC and were outgained 424-259 in this contest) and committed 8 penalties for 57 yards. 

 

Thursday September 16th- Week 2 Home Win vs. the New York Giants (the Giants (current record: 0-2) have the 12th ranked offense, 27th ranked defense, and 5th ranked special teams) by a score of 30-29:

 

Taylor Heinicke (34/46 for 336 yards, 2 passing TDs, and 1 INT)- after a full week of preparation as the starter, Heinicke and the Washington offense started slowly, but went on to have a much better and efficient game. Heinicke took an ugly sixteen yard sack that killed an early drive and was pressured and forced to throw the ball away in the first quarter, but began to adjust and did a good job of taking what the Giants defense gave him and evading pressure. He threw a killer fourth quarter INT which could have cost them the game, but made up for it by engineering a two minute drive for the winning FG. The offensive line put together another stellar performance, allowing just the one early sack. 

 

WFT Running Game- McKissic (10 rushing yards and 1 TD along with 5 catches for 83 yards) scored untouched on a nicely blocked zone run on third-and-goal and later beat an NYG linebacker on a wheel route for 50+ yards in the fourth quarter. McKissic also made some hugely significant plays on the WFT's winning FG drive, a massive fourth down conversion on a inside run being the standout play. Gibson (69 yards and 5.3 YPC) broke off one big run between the RG and RT to set up a field goal at the end of the third quarter and otherwise helped to pace the offense. 

 

Terry McLaurin (11 catches for 107 yards and 1 TD)- Washington's offense only really got going once they started to target McLaurin and they kept going back to that well often. He beat his man on a post route for the first WFT TD (the Giants corners gave him way too much cushion on the TD and then on several other catches throughout the contest which confused me as I would have thought you'd want to affect his release and timing). The way he breaks off his comeback routes is almost unmatched and he is just so clean and reliable in all aspects of the position. The Giants don't have anyone close to Tre White's level on their roster, but it should still be one of the toughest match ups White will face all season. 

 

Dyami Brown (3 catches for 34 yards )- Played much better in his second career game. Went up and high-pointed a ball to help out his QB on their first scoring drive. 

 

Adam Humphries (7 catches for 44 yards)- Helped keep the chains moving and played a part on the winning drive.

 

Logan Thomas (5 catches for 45 yards) - Nothing spectacular, but a steady presence and safety valve who got open over the middle. Ricky Seals-Jones also made a crucial TD catch in the back of the end zone with only minutes left to put Washington ahead for the first time.

 

WFT Run Defense- Were susceptible to draw plays including a 45 yard Saquon Barkley (57 yards and 4.4 YPC) run as the pass rush left a large gap in the middle. The defensive line also failed to play with the proper contain technique and got burned by Jones on RPOs and designed QB sweeps several times (especially Montez Sweat who kept crashing down over and over). Jones actually had a 56 yard TD run (!!!) called back on a pretty bogus holding penalty and he still had 9 other carries for 95 yards and 1 rushing TD that counted. I didn't really see the Giants utilize the screen game and it's not a big part of our usual scheme either, but the Washington front seems to play with reckless abandon so mixing in some screens could be beneficial.

 

WFT Pass Defense- Another game where this defense underachieved compared to its play in 2020 and its blue-chip talent on paper this season. Even in third-and-long situations, it failed to stop Daniel Jones (22/32 for 249 yards and 1 TD) and the Giants offense too often. The middle of the field was just wide open constantly. Sterling Shepard was the engine of the NYG offense with 9 catches for 94 yards. Darius Slayton got behind Jackson one-on-one down the sideline for a 33 yard TD in the second quarter. Landon Collins is always looking for the big hit at the expense of most other things and he looks very vulnerable the further he is from the LoS. Benjamin St-Juste (who was a long, athletic CB prospect I liked in this year's draft) looks a bit raw right now and could be had for some big plays as well. It should be noted that the Giants have one of the worst offensive line groups in the NFL, but the pass rush did make itself known in this game (4 total sacks) and they also did a good job of forcing the Giants to settle for three points rather than seven. Jonathan Allen was dominant on the interior, getting two more sacks and rarely allowed Jones to step up in the pocket.

 

Miscellaneous- The Giants led for nearly the entire game, but never managed to put the WFT away. Slayton actually dropped a wide open 45 yard TD pass on a busted coverage in the fourth quarter that could have put them up by two scores with 5 minutes remaining. Then as Dustin Hopkins missed the go-ahead field goal as time expired, Dexter Lawrence was called for Offside and Hopkins made his second attempt, giving Washington their first win. WFT averaged 5.9 yards per play and committed 9 penalties for 80 yards. 

 

 

Sunday September 26th Preview- Week 3 Washington Football Team (current record: 1-1, have the 9th ranked offense, 18th ranked defense, and 2nd ranked special teams) vs the Buffalo Bills (current record: 1-1, have the 26th ranked offense, 2nd ranked defense, and 25th ranked special teams):

 

Bills On Offense- The strength and elite level of talent of the WFT defense lies in the defensive line and their pair of outside corners. We have to have a plan for Chase Young/Montez Sweat on the outside and Jonathan Allen on the inside and not allow them to wreck the game. Getting the ball out quickly, utilizing Singletary/Moss as well as some extra TEs/OLs in pass pro, and allowing Josh Allen to use his legs more effectively than we have seen this year all seem like advantages. Mix in some play-action, RPOs, jet sweeps to freeze the defense for that half second...all elements of the scheme that were successful last season that Daboll hasn't used as much in 2021. The WFT defense have been vulnerable in the middle of the field as their LBs and safeties have struggled to hold up in coverage. This is a defense with several new players and it's important that we test their communication and chemistry with our route combinations. Washington as a team have one of the most penalized in the NFL through two weeks and their defense in particular have committed several costly penalties. This WFT defense is in poor form so far so we just need to take the easy yards, limit turnovers, and hammer the middle of the field with crossing and seam routes.

 

Bills On Defense- First off, Taylor Heinicke is no scrub, he has definitely impressed me on tape for a guy with his resume. He's athletic, accurate, and steady-handed in leading this offense and he's proven that this league isn't too big for him so far. The number one key to success IMO is to take McLaurin away by all means necessary and force their other skill players to beat you. I don't know if that means White shadowing him which isn't typical for our defense, but I don't think Dyami Brown, Adam Humphries, and Logan Thomas can make enough plays and carry this offense if we eliminate McLaurin. Next, we need to blitz Heinicke (who struggles more than most when blitzed) and get creative like we did against Miami so he doesn't know where the pressure is coming from (and yes that means that occasionally Groot, Epenesa, and the other DEs will drop into coverage). Heinicke is pretty athletic and mobile, but he only has 23 combined rushing yards thus far so we should get after him in the pocket without having to worry too much about him taking off. Also, for all their relative success on offense so far, the WFT have been woeful on third downs through the first two games (7/23), ranking last in the NFL. We need to continue to create negative plays on defense, get them behind the chains, and force them into third-and-long situations. 

 

On Special Teams- Dustin Hopkins (former Bills draft pick) has made 84% of his career field goal attempts and is an average NFL kicker. Tress Way is an excellent punter who helps flip the field for the WFT effectively while DeAndre Carter has bounced around a bit and is an average but steady returner both on kicks and punts.

 

Alright thanks for reading! I enjoyed putting this together and will look to do so each week moving forward. Can't wait for Sunday! All the best and Go Bills!

 

 

[msw2112]

Thanks for the detailed analysis!

[Solomon Grundy]

I think Frazier will try to confuse Taylor with different looks pre-snap. Also look to take away #17 and make others beat them. 

[Big Blitz]

It's by far the best of the 3 o lines we've played.  

 

We will learn a lot more about our front this week for sure.  

[Pokebball]

23 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

It's by far the best of the 3 o lines we've played.  

 

We will learn a lot more about our front this week for sure.  

As an aside, WFTs center was Josh's center at Wyo

[machine gun kelly]

Billieving, thank you for the work you put into this thread.  This one is up for post of the week.

[billybrew1]

Something Has Got To Give..... JA17 is one of the best players in the league yet has looked pretty bad so far this year, is this the week he finds his game? 

Josh is facing the best DL in the NFL this week but so far this year all four have looked human; is this the week they open it up? Try to copy the Stealers game plan?

Is Josh ready to throw short all the way down the field if needed? Has Daboll given us good, smart run plays to use to stop the front four from teeing off?

Josh has shown the skill to beat any defense last season and if he is on, like last season, he should move the ball right down the field utilizing: Singletary, Sanders, Diggs, Beasley, Davis, Knox and Moss. It's all up to Josh to make it work.

 

It will be interesting to see what kind of defense McD/Leslie chose to use this week. From 2017 - 2020 in the regular season the Bills D mainly used a walk-back front four driving the OL into the QB. A very safe and boring defense to run. Then, in the playoffs (and a few regular season games) they'd open things up and blitz frequently trying very hard to hit the opposing QB, this year, so far, we have shown our playoffs defense. Are we going to play all out, all year?

Im excited to see what we're going to do...I think since we are playing a young QB and have young DEs, we keep up playing our pressure D.

 

Im going with my standard score prediction: Bills - 34, WTF - 17.

 

If Josh Allen wakes up and plays at his peak potential: Bills - 49, WTF - 13..... The NFL looks at Buffalo with awe.... and already starts to talk about the big week five matchup. (Not The Bills, the media)

 

Hey! Nice write-up, thanks.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

10 hours ago, Pokebball said:

As an aside, WFTs center was Josh's center at Wyo

Didn't know that, good shout man...that Wyoming team had a sneaky amount of guys drafted.

 

Roullier is an above average center in the league and their overall line as others have said is the best one we'll have faced so far in 2021. 

[JoPoy88]

38 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Didn't know that, good shout man...that Wyoming team had a sneaky amount of guys drafted.

 

Roullier is an above average center in the league and their overall line as others have said is the best one we'll have faced so far in 2021. 

Fantastic how much work you do into these. Great job dsb.

[H2o]

What I have seen from Heinicke having seen him a little in college @ ODU here in VA, last year against Tampa in the playoffs, and last week? The kid is just a baller. He's going to make some plays. He's got a bit of mobility so there will be some improvisation. Gibson is a solid RB as well. They have some solid receiving options. All this being noted, our defense has not been the problem the first two weeks. We need the offense to start clicking. That DL worries me, especially Chase Young. That whole front four really because our OL hasn't looked up to par yet. I do like our receiver matchups though. They have no one that can guard Diggs or Beasley. I also think we see Sanders have his best game thus far and Knox gets a handful of catches with a score. Will the OL give Josh time? Will Josh take the quick hitters underneath to keep the chains moving? Will we get enough from the running game to keep the defense honest? These will be the determining factors in the game because I expect our defense to hold them under 20. 

[FilthyBeast]

Aside from Allen, the major concerns I would have in this game are:

 

1) Defense having a letdown after such a ridiculous overall performance against the Dolphins especially if this Heinke kid gains steam with extra time to prepare.

 

2) Redskins Dline and overall defense playing up to the expecations of a top 5 defense that most pundits thought heading into the season.

 

One or both of these happen and it will be a tricky game for sure (especially if Allen does in fact continue to struggle).

[LeGOATski]

Josh needs to get the ball out quick in rhythm. I'm hoping to see Beasley and Davis more involved early on, and even Knox.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

On 9/24/2021 at 5:20 PM, LeGOATski said:

Josh needs to get the ball out quick in rhythm. I'm hoping to see Beasley and Davis more involved early on, and even Knox.

Agreed, Sterling Shepard ATE last week and Beasley/Knox should have advantageous matchups tomorrow. Middle of the field is a free pass from what I saw.