Kurt Warner break down of Josh vs Pittsburgh week 1

[Motorin']

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think Josh faced a lot of 3 or 4 man pressures last season because frankly, not that many teams can "bring it" with 3 or 4 consistently, especially if we might keep blockers in and of course, there was always the possibility that Allen would escape and run.  So I think part of what slowed Josh initially was that he wasn't familiar with some of the 7 man looks the Steelers were giving him and the Bills weren't expecting them.  He was looking at it and decoding it the first few series, and that should be OK vs. just assuming you know what you're seeing and throwing a pick. 

 

In the second play breakdown where Warner was saying it just becomes a 3 deep over 4 coverage,  I'm not sure that's something dual threat NFL QBs see a lot.  I think Warner saw it a lot, because in the Greatest Show on Turf days the Rams used to run a fair amount of 4 and 5 wide splitting Faulk out, and teams did that to counter.  Warner was not a dual threat QB at all, he might pick up a first down with a slide now and again.

 

Kevin Butler did promise they were going to show the Bills "something they hadn't seen before", give him credit for perhaps following through on that.

 

 

 

I liked Matt Milan's take during the Dolphins game where he said the last part of Allen's game that he needs to develop is the Manning level ability to read the field pre and post snap.

 

I think its still early enough in his career where he has to go through rules in his head to know where to go with the ball. And Pittsburgh started throwing new schemes at him to throw him off of his rules. And when he needs to take more time to process, his proper throwing mechanics are off. Which explains a lot of the inaccurate throws. 

 

With time and experience he'll get better at seeing the field intuitively, and as a result will be able to make faster decisions and utilize his proper throwing mechanics more consistently.

 

 

[GETTOTHE50]

Some plays were misses, but Warner has never liked JA17. He’s jealous of him IMO 

[PolishDave]

5 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

I liked Matt Milan's take during the Dolphins game where he said the last part of Allen's game that he needs to develop is the Manning level ability to read the field pre and post snap.

 

I think its still early enough in his career where he has to go through rules in his head to know where to go with the ball. And Pittsburgh started throwing new schemes at him to throw him off of his rules. And when he needs to take more time to process, his proper throwing mechanics are off. Which explains a lot of the inaccurate throws. 

 

With time and experience he'll get better at seeing the field intuitively, and as a result will be able to make faster decisions and utilize his proper throwing mechanics more consistently.

 

In that Steeler's game it looked to me like Josh was just "off his game".    I am guessing he got that way by first being under extreme pressure going into that game, big contract, big expectations, high bar set for himself mentally, first time in front of a home field full house again in a playoff like atmosphere.   Then you couple that with an intense pass rush up the middle of the pocket in a pass heavy scheme.   Add to it that Josh was still focused on trying to hit the long ball every play.   It really starts to make sense how he never got into his flow state.    I bet Josh Allen never got right mentally during that Steeler's game.   Too many things going wrong around him adding to his mental stress level preventing him from calmly and quickly being decisive in the pocket.

 

I recall seeing the same thing happen to historically great passers like Dan Marino for example.   I have seen it happen with Brady although not very often at all.    You get heavy pressure on them up the middle early in the game.   It gets in their head and gets them off their game.    The next deep snap they take, instead of just focusing on where to deliver the football, they are first focused on whether or not they are about to get pancaked.   They can then feel rushed even if the pass protection holds up.   You are in their head now.  They are off their game.   You start seeing them get frustrated.    They make poor decisions and throw with less accuracy.   In Allen's case he also fudged his mechanics and sometimes resorted to playing "backyard football" . 

 

Allen may have successfully course corrected if his coaches had successfully coached him to recognize the situation for what it was and to start decisively targeting the checkdown receivers and if Daboll had adjusted by choosing plays with formations that provided max pass protection.   Looked to me like they didn't do either of those enough and were just waiting for Allen to spontaneously "snap out of his funk" and pull magic out of his ass. 

 

I think the Bills will get there.   McDermott appears to be a great leader.  Daboll is smart enough.   Allen is talented enough.    There is massive upside in their future yet this season.    But, they had better prepare to face the same situation they did with the Steelers again, because they will face it again, possibly as soon as this weekend, and especially in the playoffs.   Hopefully by the second half of the season the Bills are firing on all cylinders preparing for a run.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BarleyNY]

13 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The pocket time for Allen so far this season is 1.2 sec vs 2.6 sec last year, so no one is expecting 3 or 4 seconds.  But I think the routes are drawn up expecting 2-2.5 sec of protection.

 

I agree ball is coming out too slow, but Allen has never liked to take the checkdown and he has always tried to go for the "kill shots".  I don't know if you recall but last season I facetiously suggested attaching blaze orange 10' fiberglass "Snow poles" to Singletary and Knox to attract Allen's attention.  It's not that he doesn't know they're there, it's that he doesn't WANT to go there.  It's a different problem.

 

To Allen's credit, he acknowledged that after the Pitts. game and he took them against Miami.

 

 

 

Maybe, but by all reports Allen was 🔥 in camp, so I don't think it's mechanics per se. To my recollection it wasn't uncommon for Allen to miss high or wide on a few of the first passes of the game last season.  It's when he misses the first few where he has time, but then doesn't have time or take the short ones he can hit.

 

 

 

Pressure stats

 

Pocket time for Allen both last season and this season is 2.6 seconds.  So that’s not it. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Pressure stats

 

Pocket time for Allen both last season and this season is 2.6 seconds.  So that’s not it. 

wonder where PFR is getting the stats I quoted then, and why they differ

[BarleyNY]

8 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

wonder where PFR is getting the stats I quoted then, and why they differ

Dunno.  But 1.2 seconds can’t be correct.  It would be the worst pass blocking on record (by a fair bit).  We know we don’t have that and we don’t typically see someone totally unblocked.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

Dunno.  But 1.2 seconds can’t be correct.  It would be the worst pass blocking on record (by a fair bit).  We know we don’t have that and we don’t typically see someone totally unblocked.

so part of their definition is time from snap to throw & watching Mia game a lot of Josh’s completions were very short & fast 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

so part of their definition is time from snap to throw & watching Mia game a lot of Josh’s completions were very short & fast 

Okay but every play would have to be like that to get an average of 1.2.  And that didn’t happen.  2.6 looks correct for an average. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

10 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Okay but every play would have to be like that to get an average of 1.2.  And that didn’t happen.  2.6 looks correct for an average. 

I understand your point, but PFR is usually pretty reliable.  Homer nods I suppose