Kurt Warner break down of Josh vs Pittsburgh week 1

[Brand J]

Allen had something like 55 yards at halftime against the fishies. The Allen that played against the 49ers last season would’ve ripped both those defenses apart, pressure be damned. There are plays to be made out there, he’s just not making them right now.

[SirusB]

I think it's just a comfort issue.  Last year, he was confident with his O-line, he usually had tons of time.  He'd sometimes freeze in the pocket and just watch the play develop.  Total confidence with his O-line. Dawkins was hospitalized, very recently, and struggled against the Steelers week 1.  That has to shake Allen, when Dawkins becomes a liability vs being a strength.

As Josh's confidence in Dawkins' recovery, (and the line as a whole) increases, I think he will be able to focus more on his mechanics and reads, instead of worrying that he will be blindsided by a defender that his LT (or someone else) whiffed on.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

Any gems in here that we don't already know and are ready to move on from? Or is he just going to re-explain to me that Pitt rushed 4, dropped 7, and Allen stunk?

 

 

The review of the plays were interesting even without the sound. 
 

the conclusion looked like bad footwork and poor reads. 
 

But it was inconsistent to me. One play he’s saying he should’ve read the check down and take it, other plays he faulted taking the outside curl or check down instead of a deep seam. 
 

pitt secondary was doing rotating their zone in all sorts of bizarre ways. Good scheme went your front 3 or 4 get home. 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

9 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Allen had something like 55 yards at halftime against the fishies. The Allen that played against the 49ers last season would’ve ripped both those defenses apart, pressure be damned. There are plays to be made out there, he’s just not making them right now.

Ball is coming out too slow.  Needs some of that Brady stuff where he knows where the ball probably is going before the snap and takes Those quick 6 yards gainers. The o line struggles enough, then you ask them to hold up 3 or 4 seconds on 60 plays? 
 

also, I wonder if he lost some of his mechanics perfection he brought into last season. 
 

Same thing happened to Favre off and on. 

[Albwan]

Everyone realizes the other team is coaching and playing too..?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

56 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

This analysis basically says it’s not the pressure.

Allen isn’t seeing the throws that need to be made and his mechanics are off, leading to inaccuracy again.

 

Yeah, that's what he says, but I think the truth is probably more nuanced than that. 

 

Like, see above, he's saying "turn, throw it" at a point where a short curl route would break, but where the curl route on that play actually breaks is several seconds past that point ,and when Warner says "throw it", two WR and two DBs have not separated and it seems to me it's too soon to throw.  I think that's a little problem in the route design against an aggressive defense.

 

At other times, I think Allen sees the short throws, he's just not taking them.  He's going for the kill shot.  That's who he is, but it's a different problem than not seeing the throws, if that makes sense.  And he learned from it - this past Sunday against Miami, Allen took those short quick throws to good effect.

 

 I do think the Pitts. defense confused Allen at times, and again, as I said above, Kevin Butler said he'd come up with something the Bills hadn't seen before and he was going to "make the durn Bills figure it out" and he evidently did.   I thought Chris Simms had a more nuanced and understanding take.  It's not that he thought Allen was good, but he understood why what Pittsburgh was doing was effective with the option routes some of the Bills WR run and created confusion. 

 

But whaddo I know.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

37 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Ball is coming out too slow.  Needs some of that Brady stuff where he knows where the ball probably is going before the snap and takes Those quick 6 yards gainers. The o line struggles enough, then you ask them to hold up 3 or 4 seconds on 60 plays? 

 

The pocket time for Allen so far this season is 1.2 sec vs 2.6 sec last year, so no one is expecting 3 or 4 seconds.  But I think the routes are drawn up expecting 2-2.5 sec of protection.

 

I agree ball is coming out too slow, but Allen has never liked to take the checkdown and he has always tried to go for the "kill shots".  I don't know if you recall but last season I facetiously suggested attaching blaze orange 10' fiberglass "Snow poles" to Singletary and Knox to attract Allen's attention.  It's not that he doesn't know they're there, it's that he doesn't WANT to go there.  It's a different problem.

 

To Allen's credit, he acknowledged that after the Pitts. game and he took them against Miami.

 

 

37 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

also, I wonder if he lost some of his mechanics perfection he brought into last season. 

 

Maybe, but by all reports Allen was 🔥 in camp, so I don't think it's mechanics per se. To my recollection it wasn't uncommon for Allen to miss high or wide on a few of the first passes of the game last season.  It's when he misses the first few where he has time, but then doesn't have time or take the short ones he can hit.

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

I posted a lot of this is another thread. I think from KC on teams have played a very similar strategy against our offense and it's just as much on Daboll to figure it out as Josh.

 

What do you do to young quarterbacks? Send pressure. We saw a lot of that last year. Not a good idea against Josh. Even if it is a good idea against most younger players, it allowed Josh to better isolate one on one match ups, coverages, and the pressure rarely got home. Usually we would see the blitzing player fly right past Allen as he side stepped, bounce off of him, or he would roll out and either create large amounts of time for WR's to get open or have clear running lanes. 

 

This year, it's rush 3 or 4 max. Drop everybody. Stay in a contained rush, break contain and Allen will break the pocket. Essentially we are being dared to run the ball, teams are way over committed to the pass, and teams are employing a much more Allen specific pass rush with the 3-4 they do bring. Those 3-4 are getting home fairly quick and doing so in ways where Allen is not having an easy time escaping. Meanwhile defenses have 7-8 guys dropping back and Daboll is still happy to throw into it. You can blame Josh, but I almost blame Daboll more. Somebody in the other thread said Daboll was like Roman. He is, just the opposite. As advanced as his passing game is, you can't be a one dimensional offensive coordinator. 

 

A couple other factors. Josh is exceptional in play action, has been since Wyoming. It's the only thing I knew he could 100% do right out the gate. He has great timing out of play action. He isn't really getting quality PA reps. We also had zero crowd noise to contend with last year which I think would be much more challenging to the passing game than the running game. 

 

It's entirely possible McDermott will take Dabolls play calling away if he doesn't get in line. I don't think for one second this is what McDermott wants from his offense. He's a defensive mind at heart. He likely see's what's happening and knows balance has to come. Once the offenses embraces the word methodical it will start clicking again. The big plays will come naturally and we will be fine. Until then, I think we see similar results as to what we have of late.    

Edited September 22, 2021 by KzooMike

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

  I don't know if you recall but last season I facetiously suggested attaching blaze orange 10' fiberglass "Snow poles" to Singletary and Knox to attract Allen's attention. 

 

 

 

 

 

I do recall and am willing to help the procurement process.  😝

 

Once great knockout artists decide to use  the jab they can’t be stopped.. 

 

Use the jab Josh. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, KzooMike said:

I posted a lot of this is another thread. I think from KC on teams have played a very similar strategy against our offense and it's just as much on Daboll to figure it out as Josh.

 

What do you do to young quarterbacks? Send pressure. We saw a lot of that last year. Not a good idea against Josh. Even if it is a good idea against most younger players, it allowed Josh to better isolate one on one match ups, coverages, and the pressure rarely got home. Usually we would see the blitzing player fly right past Allen as he side stepped, bounce off of him, or he would roll out and either create large amounts of time for WR's to get open or have clear running lanes. 

 

This year, it's rush 3 or 4 max. Drop everybody.

 

 

I don't think this is true of even what the Dolphins and Steelers did. 

 

The Steelers have a stout enough DL that they could send 3 or 4 and get pressure and flood zone downfield.

The Dolphins played a lot of man and sent more guys

That's what the Chiefs did in the AFCCG, only we fooled them Fins and did some quick passes and ran a lot.

 

 

 

 

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I don't think this is true of even what the Dolphins and Steelers did.

 

 I'm speculating on what is occurring. Combining what I have seen so far and what has been reported by "experts". What I'm discussing is not quantifiable, unless you get advanced stats on blitz% (we already know the Steelers game was very low we already know Josh's destroyed the Blitz last year). I get it, according to you, nothing is occurring, but then again, nothing you say is quantifiable either. So I guess neither opinion has much merit since neither is rooted in anything. Just two different opinions, yet somehow you seem like yours is more rooted in logic, which I don't really understand. I mean Kubiak did say Josh played well. He got a lot of +1 grades for throwing the ball away because we had nobody open.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

 I'm speculating on what is occurring. Combining what I have seen so far and what has been reported by "experts". What I'm discussing is not quantifiable, unless you get advanced stats on blitz% (we already know the Steelers game was very low we already know Josh's destroyed the Blitz last year). I get it, according to you, nothing is occurring, but then again, nothing you say is quantifiable either. So I guess neither opinion has much merit since neither is rooted in anything. Just two different opinions, yet somehow you seem like yours is more rooted in logic, which I don't really understand. I mean Kubiak did say Josh played well. He got a lot of +1 grades for throwing the ball away because we had nobody open.  

 

First of all, "nothing is occurring" is not a reasonable characterization of anything I've written.

Second, I have provided quantifiable stats.

 

Have a good day.

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

First of all, "nothing is occurring" is not a reasonable characterization of anything I've written.

Second, I have provided quantifiable stats.

 

Have a good day.

What, pocket time? If anything that is backing up what I'm saying. Allen wasn't in the pocket eating a sandwich last year for 2-3+ seconds, he got those additional seconds by breaking contain and extending plays 6-7 seconds+. Something he has barely been able to do this year. I remember Tyrod Taylor used to have exceptional "time to pass" stats. Not that hard when you run around behind the line of scrimmage like Taylor or Josh do. 

[Mikie2times]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

First of all, "nothing is occurring" is not a reasonable characterization of anything I've written.

Second, I have provided quantifiable stats.

 

Have a good day.

By the way give the Kurt Warner video a watch, every play, 4 man front, 4 man pressure, drop 7. 100% of the plays. Nowhere to throw the ball. 

[JaCrispy]

5 hours ago, uninja said:

This was a solid breakdown, my biggest takeaway from watching this and other breakdowns as well as watching game film is pressure. Allen has been under pressure at a higher rate than most QBs this year so far. He's not handling it as well as he did last year, for reasons not clear to me. 

What I took away was that Allen wasn’t taking what the D was giving...

[Mikie2times]

Against five or more pass-rushers in 2020, Allen completed 150 of 226 passes for 1,791 yards, 884 air yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He was the best in the NFL against the blitz and had one of the best seasons in NFL history facing the Blitz. He was in the top 5 most frequently blitzed QB's in both 2019 and 2020.

 

Allen has faced the blitz on 13.1% of his attempts so far this season. Which will end up making him the least blitzed QB in the NFL this year if the trend continues. For context, last season he was blitzed on 42.7% of his attempts. While getting blitzed (defined as 5 or more rushers) nearly a 1/3rd of the frequency as last year, his pressure rate is actually higher in 2021, 30.8% vs 2020, 21.9% on his attempts. So ya, that's pretty telling. I mean teams are getting to him with more consistency by using less players. I think some of this is a lack of decisiveness in his reads (because his passing lanes are flooded) and certainly I'm not absolving offensive line play .

 

Just to summarize if teams aren't blitzing, then they are at minimum dropping 7 in coverage. Again, I don't see how the image I painted is far off from what I described, what the stats are saying. I'm pretty sure the best way to beat a 4 man front is to run the ball. Josh is not fixing anything throwing into 7 people in coverage behind this offensive line, especially if he can't break contain.   

[wjag]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Maybe I just don't like Warner as an analyst. 

 

This is me.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

1 hour ago, KzooMike said:

By the way give the Kurt Warner video a watch, every play, 4 man front, 4 man pressure, drop 7. 100% of the plays. Nowhere to throw the ball. 

Are you sure you watched it? The video was literally talking about where to throw the ball.

[Mikie2times]

9 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Are you sure you watched it? The video was literally talking about where to throw the ball.

I just skimmed the DL rush to be honest, then assumed he wouldn't have anywhere to go with 7 dropping. Bad assumption apparently. 

 

*oh god a watched it. well, now I feel even worse than I did before. thank you. 

Edited September 22, 2021 by KzooMike

[78thealltimegreat]

7 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Maybe. I’m less convinced by these types of theories  ie crowd noise vs empty stadiums , contract etc than  I am by breakdowns of what has happened on the field to influence the play. 

Allen is under a different level of pressure now he’s no longer just a kid who you hope the Bills didn’t bust on…to hey maybe this kid ain’t a bust…to hey this kid can play a little…to hey he’s now one of the faces of the NFL in less then 4 years…Josh Allen is the least of my worries with the Bills