Analyze Josh Allen decisions not the stats - Pretty good Kubiak article

[WideNine]

https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-dont-analyze-josh-allens-stats-analyze-the-decisions-hes-making/article_dca2609a-1a64-11ec-a59d-1b92017538b4.html

 

Sorry if this was posted elsewhere, but does a better job explaining things to fans tied to just the passing numbers than I do.

 

 

 

[K-9]

That’s the whole point of when I said Josh could actually have lesser stats this year and still be a better QB than he was last year. If we appreciate the difference between being a QB and being a passer, it’s pretty easy to understand.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

It was posted in the Dolphins Postgame thread with some excerpts, but easily deserves its own thread.

 

And I'll say again, this guy knows his stuff.  He is detailed and backs up his opinion with charts and film and uses a "do your job" coaches play-by-play grading system   Kubiak IMO is worth the $1/month intro special to check it out for a few months.  Then either cancel, or decide it's worth it and subcribe.

 

Here for my excerpts:

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, K-9 said:

That’s the whole point of when I said Josh could actually have lesser stats this year and still be a better QB than he was last year. If we appreciate the difference between being a QB and being a passer, it’s pretty easy to understand.

 

Yeah, this is where IMO the people who are all "Allen is regressing" "Allen is just like 2019 (or 2018)" either don't know what the hell they're watching, or are just chasing stats.

 

Is Allen missing a couple of throws where he's not under pressure and he should hit them?  Yes he is, but he did that last year too.

Is Allen under a very high rate of pressure?  Yes he is. 

 

But in the Miami game he took the short, quick hits OR threw the ball away, and he didn't do that enough in 2019.  In 2018 he would have just pulled it and run, or fought to make a play and taken a sack or thrown a pick.  Throwing the ball away and taking the quick hit will drop his completion % and his YPA, but that decision making is part of his progression towards becoming a complete NFL QB.

 

Daboll said something in his Monday presser very similar to Kubiak's conclusion, that he told Allen "I don't care how many times you throw it away, just make good decisions".

[billybrew1]

I don't care what anybody sez, it doesn't take a genius to know that Allen is not playing up to last year's standards any way you look at it. No, he is not terrible but he is not playing like a franchise QB at all. His passes are all over the place. Too long too don't, into triple coverage, yuck.

He threw with incredible accuracy last season putting the ball right on the mark.

Do I expect him to come back?

Yes, he's slumping, end of story. He might have to come to terms with that contract. He know makes way more than any other Bill and I think that is unsettling for a team oriented guy like Josh. How can you be a great team mate when you make ten times more than the next guy? That is a ton of pressure, just a ton.

On tap of all that, Pittsburgh played its super bowl against our s and whooped our ass making things really tough on Allen and Miami might have the very best secondary in the league. 

Now, this week, he faces perhaps the best front four in the league. Yes, maybe better than Pittsburgh's....

Washington, I suppose, is going to try to do the same exact thing Pittsburgh did.

Josh has to throw short with speed and accuracy and Daboll must run some well coordinated runs.

We might be wise to run that reverse pass offense where you look short first then long.... Get five yards a pop for around 16 plays ending with a TD. Make the defense feel the pressure instead. And no, Josh has not thrown particularly well throwing short yet this year. Against WTF, would be his first accurate short game of the year.... but he can do it! I know he can.

[Draconator]

1 minute ago, billybrew1 said:

I don't care what anybody sez, it doesn't take a genius to know that Allen is not playing up to last year's standards any way you look at it. No, he is not terrible but he is not playing like a franchise QB at all. His passes are all over the place. Too long too don't, into triple coverage, yuck.

He threw with incredible accuracy last season putting the ball right on the mark.

Do I expect him to come back?

Yes, he's slumping, end of story. He might have to come to terms with that contract. He know makes way more than any other Bill and I think that is unsettling for a team oriented guy like Josh. How can you be a great team mate when you make ten times more than the next guy? That is a ton of pressure, just a ton.

On tap of all that, Pittsburgh played its super bowl against our s and whooped our ass making things really tough on Allen and Miami might have the very best secondary in the league. 

Now, this week, he faces perhaps the best front four in the league. Yes, maybe better than Pittsburgh's....

Washington, I suppose, is going to try to do the same exact thing Pittsburgh did.

Josh has to throw short with speed and accuracy and Daboll must run some well coordinated runs.

We might be wise to run that reverse pass offense where you look short first then long.... Get five yards a pop for around 16 plays ending with a TD. Make the defense feel the pressure instead. And no, Josh has not thrown particularly well throwing short yet this year. Against WTF, would be his first accurate short game of the year.... but he can do it! I know he can.

 

Did you even read the article? Or would it make your head explode with thoughtful and logical breakdowns on the solid game Josh played?

[1ManRaid]

Doesn't Miami have 2 of the top 5 paid CBs in the league?  Including one that may easily be one of the 3 best.

 

I'll hold off on the "Allen is regressing/was a fluke last year" until he's having "bad" games while NOT under constant pressure against top DBs.

Edited September 21, 2021 by 1ManRaid

[nedboy7]

12 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

I don't care what anybody sez, it doesn't take a genius to know that Allen is not playing up to last year's standards any way you look at it. No, he is not terrible but he is not playing like a franchise QB at all. His passes are all over the place. Too long too don't, into triple coverage, yuck.

He threw with incredible accuracy last season putting the ball right on the mark.

Do I expect him to come back?

Yes, he's slumping, end of story. He might have to come to terms with that contract. He know makes way more than any other Bill and I think that is unsettling for a team oriented guy like Josh. How can you be a great team mate when you make ten times more than the next guy? That is a ton of pressure, just a ton.

On tap of all that, Pittsburgh played its super bowl against our s and whooped our ass making things really tough on Allen and Miami might have the very best secondary in the league. 

Now, this week, he faces perhaps the best front four in the league. Yes, maybe better than Pittsburgh's....

Washington, I suppose, is going to try to do the same exact thing Pittsburgh did.

Josh has to throw short with speed and accuracy and Daboll must run some well coordinated runs.

We might be wise to run that reverse pass offense where you look short first then long.... Get five yards a pop for around 16 plays ending with a TD. Make the defense feel the pressure instead. And no, Josh has not thrown particularly well throwing short yet this year. Against WTF, would be his first accurate short game of the year.... but he can do it! I know he can.

 

That's funny cause I dont care what you say.  Allen will be fine. 

[Rubes]

31 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

I don't care what anybody sez, it doesn't take a genius to know that Allen is not playing up to last year's standards any way you look at it. No, he is not terrible but he is not playing like a franchise QB at all. His passes are all over the place. Too long too don't, into triple coverage, yuck.

He threw with incredible accuracy last season putting the ball right on the mark.

Do I expect him to come back?

Yes, he's slumping, end of story. He might have to come to terms with that contract. He know makes way more than any other Bill and I think that is unsettling for a team oriented guy like Josh. How can you be a great team mate when you make ten times more than the next guy? That is a ton of pressure, just a ton.

On tap of all that, Pittsburgh played its super bowl against our s and whooped our ass making things really tough on Allen and Miami might have the very best secondary in the league. 

Now, this week, he faces perhaps the best front four in the league. Yes, maybe better than Pittsburgh's....

Washington, I suppose, is going to try to do the same exact thing Pittsburgh did.

Josh has to throw short with speed and accuracy and Daboll must run some well coordinated runs.

We might be wise to run that reverse pass offense where you look short first then long.... Get five yards a pop for around 16 plays ending with a TD. Make the defense feel the pressure instead. And no, Josh has not thrown particularly well throwing short yet this year. Against WTF, would be his first accurate short game of the year.... but he can do it! I know he can.

 

Probably should've just ended the post there.

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

This is a great point...people are comparing our start to last season stat wise and to me that's not really the best way to do it.  The jets were absolutely atrocious week 1 last year and I would argue our offense was awful in that game regardless of what the stats say...we should've won that game by 100.  His performance against the steelers was easily better than that but people only remember the L

3 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

I don't care what anybody sez, it doesn't take a genius to know that Allen is not playing up to last year's standards any way you look at it. No, he is not terrible but he is not playing like a franchise QB at all. His passes are all over the place. Too long too don't, into triple coverage, yuck.

He threw with incredible accuracy last season putting the ball right on the mark.

Do I expect him to come back?

Yes, he's slumping, end of story. He might have to come to terms with that contract. He know makes way more than any other Bill and I think that is unsettling for a team oriented guy like Josh. How can you be a great team mate when you make ten times more than the next guy? That is a ton of pressure, just a ton.

On tap of all that, Pittsburgh played its super bowl against our s and whooped our ass making things really tough on Allen and Miami might have the very best secondary in the league. 

Now, this week, he faces perhaps the best front four in the league. Yes, maybe better than Pittsburgh's....

Washington, I suppose, is going to try to do the same exact thing Pittsburgh did.

Josh has to throw short with speed and accuracy and Daboll must run some well coordinated runs.

We might be wise to run that reverse pass offense where you look short first then long.... Get five yards a pop for around 16 plays ending with a TD. Make the defense feel the pressure instead. And no, Josh has not thrown particularly well throwing short yet this year. Against WTF, would be his first accurate short game of the year.... but he can do it! I know he can.

Loll he is though and he is likely playing even better...I know we normally dunk on Miami but they are a fringe top 5 defense talent wise and so is pit.  There was no nyj to beat up on early in the season this year. Think about how he played against ten and kc during the regular season last year...he's facing defenses even better than that in the weeks of the season where offenses notoriously look a little sloppy. Flores has now seen Josh two more times since last season and he's got great players all over that defense 

Edited September 21, 2021 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Jobot]

3 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

I don't care what anybody sez, it doesn't take a genius to know that Allen is not playing up to last year's standards any way you look at it. No, he is not terrible but he is not playing like a franchise QB at all. His passes are all over the place. Too long too don't, into triple coverage, yuck.

He threw with incredible accuracy last season putting the ball right on the mark.

Do I expect him to come back?

Yes, he's slumping, end of story. He might have to come to terms with that contract. He know makes way more than any other Bill and I think that is unsettling for a team oriented guy like Josh. How can you be a great team mate when you make ten times more than the next guy? That is a ton of pressure, just a ton.

On tap of all that, Pittsburgh played its super bowl against our s and whooped our ass making things really tough on Allen and Miami might have the very best secondary in the league. 

Now, this week, he faces perhaps the best front four in the league. Yes, maybe better than Pittsburgh's....

Washington, I suppose, is going to try to do the same exact thing Pittsburgh did.

Josh has to throw short with speed and accuracy and Daboll must run some well coordinated runs.

We might be wise to run that reverse pass offense where you look short first then long.... Get five yards a pop for around 16 plays ending with a TD. Make the defense feel the pressure instead. And no, Josh has not thrown particularly well throwing short yet this year. Against WTF, would be his first accurate short game of the year.... but he can do it! I know he can.

 

Read the article, it'll actually make you feel a lot better. It's not technique or accuracy issues. His struggles are all coming from decision making timing and issues. It shows that he's got some educating to do on reading NFL defenses, and when he figures that out.. loook the F out!

 

Oh and don't forget, but we may have a top 5 run game and the number 1 defense...

[Beast]

3 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

 

That's funny cause I dont care what you say.  Allen will be fine. 

 

And Allen probably will be fine but to say he is playing even OK is BS because he isn't.

 

I remember Kelly going through quite a bad stretch in 1989. It happens and it's OK to admit that a player on your team is not performing well.

Edited September 21, 2021 by Beast

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

8 minutes ago, Beast said:

 

And Allen probably will be fine but to say he is playing even OK is BS because he isn't.

I dont see how you can say that two games in when the offensive line has been a sieve.  Josh last year would've struggled just the same or more in these types of games.  Kc and ten absolutely throttled him in the regular season last year 

Edited September 21, 2021 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Beast]

Just now, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I dont see how you can say that two games in when the offensive line has been a sieve.  Josh last year would've struggled just the same or more in these types of games.  Kc and ten absolutely throttled him in the regular season last year 

 

I can say that because of what I've witnessed. Allen has missed wide open receivers when he isn't being pressured. WIDE OPEN receivers.

 

Again, I believe he will settle down but to make excuses for his below average play is puzzling.

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 minutes ago, Beast said:

 

I can say that because of what I've witnessed. Allen has missed wide open receivers when he isn't being pressured. WIDE OPEN receivers.

 

Again, I believe he will settle down but to make excuses for his below average play is puzzling.

 

Did he not miss open receivers with time last year? Lol you've gotta keep one eye on your guys blocking at all times it is so much harder to get into a rhythm when your OL can get whooped at any time even with numbers and even the rare times you get good pass protection.  You've gotta be able to trust those guys up front and he just doesn't...it is not even close to puzzling what is happening 

Edited September 21, 2021 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

His overall season stats last season are completely irrelevant...how did he do in games when he could get pressured by 4 rushers? He was pretty dreadful...every qb is.  And in this season he's been mediocre. 

[TheyCallMeAndy]

I couldn’t even read the article because of all the freaking ads. 

[Chaos]

We have come a long way, as be cry in our beer, that our QB is sucking after coming off a 35-0 win.  

[Orlando Buffalo]

I appreciate the article and agree with the overall sentiment, that Josh was been better than his numbers this weekend. The scoring that Kubiak uses makes no sense, how is the 2nd qtr not rated very low since he made no good plays and several bad ones. His third quarter was much better than his second but the scoring was 14% different. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Yeah, this is where IMO the people who are all "Allen is regressing" "Allen is just like 2019 (or 2018)" either don't know what the hell they're watching, or are just chasing stats.

 

Is Allen missing a couple of throws where he's not under pressure and he should hit them?  Yes he is, but he did that last year too.

Is Allen under a very high rate of pressure?  Yes he is. 

 

But in the Miami game he took the short, quick hits OR threw the ball away, and he didn't do that enough in 2019.  In 2018 he would have just pulled it and run, or fought to make a play and taken a sack or thrown a pick.  Throwing the ball away and taking the quick hit will drop his completion % and his YPA, but that decision making is part of his progression towards becoming a complete NFL QB.

 

Daboll said something in his Monday presser very similar to Kubiak's conclusion, that he told Allen "I don't care how many times you throw it away, just make good decisions".

 

FWIW I finished re-watching all of the passes in the Dolphins game.  Here's how I break them down:

 

I finished going through the pass plays vs. Dolphins.  Here's how I break it down:

1. bad decisions - 4.  INT and a throw while being hit in the first half, two balls thrown under pressure that were almost picked in the 2nd half.  Those gotta go

2. poor throws - 3.  Too high for Diggs, too high for Singletary, led Sanders too far.  Technically you could count the INT to Diggs but I think that was decision.

3. throwaways - 4.  One that I score as a throwaway, could arguably be called a high throw to Beasley but I'm pretty sure it was intentional.

4. completions - 17.  By far, most of these are short swing passes or quick routes.  The TD and another completion to Diggs were nice, nice throw to Knox and across the middle to Sanders (similar route to the Diggs pick but thrown beautifully)

5. incompletions - 5.  Batted pass, rushed throw, off his back foot under pressure, great defense, failed try for DPI or DH on Diggs

 

I agree with Kubiak that many of the short-pass completions are a positive development from Allen, because he just wouldn't take them last season and he didn't take enough of them last week.

 

I think last year and certainly 2018, most of the throwaways would have been off the menu.  Allen rarely threw it away.  He would pull it down and run first.  So they're going to count against his completion percentage instead of as scrambles.  FWIW not having them would raise his completion percentage about 7%.

 

The incompletions are going to be there.  The defense gets paid too.  Pressure gets home, guys are covered, passes get defended.

The poor throws - Over both games, some of it I think is Josh not having timing down with Sanders missing camp.  Sanders is 6 of 14 (42.9%).  Diggs is 13 for 21 (61.9%), Beasley is 12 of 17 (70.6%).  But  I think defenses are smarter than that.

 

So what do I think is the problem?  It's not all throwaways.  I think the bad decisions are part of it.  Allen is frustrated by the coverage and by dinking-n-dunking and he's trying too hard to make something happen when sometimes there are yards to be had on a short throw.  That's gotta stop.    Part of it, though, is that defenses have figured out how to defend some of the route concepts we killed people with last season, and we're going to have to adjust and come up with new strategies.  Part of it is our OL not being "up to speed" though, they were better this week. 

 

And part of it is, you know, after you run up 35 points on a few teams dinking-and-dunking and running the ball, the "Clue Bird" will land that it's all fine-and-dandy to hold Josh Allen to 171 yards and 2 TD, but if they run for 143 yards and score 3 rushing TD, YOU STILL LOSE.