A Few Thoughts about the Dolphins Game, in no particular order

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

3 - Pass Protection - After a terrible week one, the Bills increased their blocker projection by sometimes have 7 pass protectors on the field, including Gilly.  From this, Allen had more time and we saw a much more effective rushing attack.  We still ran our share of spread offense and had some rushes stopped behind the line of scrimmage, but it was a noticeable improvement from the prior week.  Allen wasn't running for his life, which creates other questions....

 

I'm hampered by "No All-22" and the new Gamepass interface which, unless I'm missing something, has no ability to go directly to different plays.  It sucks.

That said, I'm halfway through a detailed re-watch of the game and I'm here to say that I see a BUTTLOAD of pressure still.

 

There were 3 throw aways under pressure and a batted pass - that's 25% of the passes thrown in the first half.  Of the 16 throws, I consider Allen under pressure in half of them.

 

 Now I'll say right here that it's not the whole story - there were 2 high throws and a pick, and there was an additional throw I would call a bad decision.  Two were not thrown under pressure and 2 were. So that's 25% of the passes thrown in the first half. 

 

A number of the 7 completions lacked pressure only because they were quick passes.  There was one completion on a deep pass.

 

So I would say that while it wasn't the complete and total jailbreak of the Pitt game, there was still a lot of pressure and Allen wasn't running for his life trying to pass as much because he was either getting the ball out quickly, or he was just running.

 

4 hours ago, Virgil said:

6 - Allen/Daboll - Not everything was roses and sunshine in the game, as Josh and the pass game wasn't the main reason behind out 35 points.  At halftime, Allen only had 62 passing yards.  Last season, I remember being able to count on one hand the amount of uncatchable balls Josh threw.  Like the Steelers game, Josh was still missing guys all over the field, even shockingly under-throwing them.  He did have a great deep pass early to Sanders, but some would argue it was more of a rope than a soft pass needed for most deep throws.  He missed Motor on a swing pass that could have been a solid gain and his interception was behind Diggs.  He also should have been picked off for a second time on a poor pass into coverage deep to McKenzie.  Pass rush was not a concern, nor was players getting open.  Josh simply was missing them.  It's concerning two games in a row, but not enough to think he's regressing.  We are also still seeing a game plan that utilizes throws to Sanders.  For two games in, here is my concern:  Are we changing up our scheme and receiver focus just enough to kill the rhythm we had last year.  I feel like Sanders is being targeted more than Diggs and Beasley, when that rapport is already established.  I would love to see some All-22 reviews, but something is still clearly off. 

 

See, I disagree with a lot of the take here (see above).  I think pass rush was still a concern, and I don't understand how someone could watch the game and think it wasn't.  There were poor throws - a high throw and the pick - that were NOT thrown under pressure.    Rashoman-like!  Most of the first half completions had no pressure only because they were quick throws.

 

I said elsewhere and will repeat here, one objective stat is the 'pocket time" metric on pro-football-reference.  It was 2.6 seconds last year, and is 1.2 seconds so far this year.  Pressure is an issue.  Hopefully all the running we did this game will help.

 

However....you may be "on" to something about the impact of Sanders.

Diggs 13 receptions on 21 targets, 62%

Beasley 12 receptions on 17 targets, 71%

Sanders 6 receptions on 14 targets, 43%

He's not being targeted more than Diggs or Sanders, but he's getting a lot of targets and catching less of them, and I would say that Allen's timing with him is just off.

 

 

 

[BobbyC81]

Bills are now 53-61-1 vs Miami all-time in regular season.  This is significant when you consider they went 0-20 in the 1970s.  Man those years were tough.

[TtownBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Virgil said:

Black lab. Breeder gave her up for not selling fast enough.  Adopted her from a program. 12 weeks. 

I have two black labs, and my girl decided she needed a little rat-dog.  Picked up a sweet little long-haired rat-dog (sorry, she calls it a chiahuahua.)  Sweet little pup, even if it resembles a squirrel or a rat.

[bmur66]

The new Frazier "everyone gets a sack" program. I like this!

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Was Harrison Phillips a healthy scratch?

 

Yes. 

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm hampered by "No All-22" and the new Gamepass interface which, unless I'm missing something, has no ability to go directly to different plays.  It sucks.

That said, I'm halfway through a detailed re-watch of the game and I'm here to say that I see a BUTTLOAD of pressure still.

 

There were 3 throw aways under pressure and a batted pass - that's 25% of the passes thrown in the first half.  Of the 16 throws, I consider Allen under pressure in half of them.

 

 Now I'll say right here that it's not the whole story - there were 2 high throws and a pick, and there was an additional throw I would call a bad decision.  Two were not thrown under pressure and 2 were. So that's 25% of the passes thrown in the first half. 

 

A number of the 7 completions lacked pressure only because they were quick passes.  There was one completion on a deep pass.

 

So I would say that while it wasn't the complete and total jailbreak of the Pitt game, there was still a lot of pressure and Allen wasn't running for his life trying to pass as much because he was either getting the ball out quickly, or he was just running.

 

 

See, I disagree with a lot of the take here (see above).  I think pass rush was still a concern, and I don't understand how someone could watch the game and think it wasn't.  There were poor throws - a high throw and the pick - that were NOT thrown under pressure.    Rashoman-like!  Most of the first half completions had no pressure only because they were quick throws.

 

I said elsewhere and will repeat here, one objective stat is the 'pocket time" metric on pro-football-reference.  It was 2.6 seconds last year, and is 1.2 seconds so far this year.  Pressure is an issue.  Hopefully all the running we did this game will help.

 

However....you may be "on" to something about the impact of Sanders.

Diggs 13 receptions on 21 targets, 62%

Beasley 12 receptions on 17 targets, 71%

Sanders 6 receptions on 14 targets, 43%

He's not being targeted more than Diggs or Sanders, but he's getting a lot of targets and catching less of them, and I would say that Allen's timing with him is just off.

 

 

 

 

I agree there was still too much pressure. I will review the all22 today but I think on a first view the pressure has got into Josh's head a bit and his feet are fidgety which is why he is still missing some non pressurised throws. I am not sure the line played that much better than last week. It just faced a weaker opponent.

[machine gun kelly]

7 hours ago, elijah said:

Didn’t realize how much I looked forward to this every week until I caught myself checking the forum all day for it 😭 

 

Thanks @Virgil, good job as always 🍻 

Same Virg.  Specifically AJ has been fantastic through two games.  It seems having an off season and he looks like he’s gained at least 10 lbs. and it helps.  Milano is one of my favorites and is showing up this season.  What a difference maker he is when healthy.  Polian mentioned this on late hits a couple of weeks ago.  He said a healthy Milano completely changed the Bills defense between when he was playing or out hurt.  Haack concerns me with his time to get it off.  Allen is of course off these first two games, but I’m not ding the same in Sanders.  I hope I’m not reading into it as it looks like Josh is trying to get it to him vs. whoever is open.  Hopefully someone finds some editorials on the all 22 today or tomorrow.

 

I don’t want to get too excited until later in the year, but this defense looks excellent.  Not perfect, but excellent.  I liked the balance on running, but agree with an earlier poster second down runs would be great.  Last year we passed the most in the league on 1st downs.  Maybe that is why in the Miami game we ran more as opposing defenses expect us to pass.  If that is the case then that makes sense.

 

[CSBill]

8 hours ago, Virgil said:

Unlike someone else who hasn't shown up after his big payday,

 

Edmunds or Allen ???  🤷‍♂️

 

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 Now I'll say right here that it's not the whole story - there were 2 high throws and a pick, and

 

However....you may be "on" to something about the impact of Sanders.

Diggs 13 receptions on 21 targets, 62%

Beasley 12 receptions on 17 targets, 71%

Sanders 6 receptions on 14 targets, 43%

He's not being targeted more than Diggs or Sanders, but he's getting a lot of targets and catching less of them, and I would say that Allen's timing with him is just off.

 

 

 

 

To my untrained eye, I am seeing the same thing. It feels (looks?) as if Josh is trying to hard too get it to Sanders, while missing his bread-and-butter guys of Diggs and Beasley.

 

I would love to see Davis given the opportunity to be wide-out #2, and move Sanders to the 4th stop in WR depth. He is not impressing me. And for whatever reason, it sure looks force-fed to him?

 

And as always, thanks for the insights Virgil.

 

Edited September 21, 2021 by CSBill

[Wayne Cubed]

7 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Allen is in the middle of a slump. The more I think about it the more confident I am he will come out of it. One of these weeks he is going to come out firing the ball like 2020 MVP caliber Josh Allen and never look back. I have no objective reason to believe this, I just feel it with absolute certainty. You don't escape a slump by trying to get out of it. You just keep playing until it goes away on its own. Allen is working through that process now. He did not suddenly forget how to play QB.

 

Agree with that. When he threw the INT on Sunday, I was a little dissapointed that they went to 4 straight runs when the Bills got the ball back and it was in the 2 min drill. I thought alright, one run to get them to use a timeout but then they just kept going. Got lucky with the muffed punt. Josh needs to throw to get out of his slumps. 

[Wo-Bah]

I like the Pearl Jam reference.

 

Good post, too, by the way.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

We gotta stop talking about last year. 

[Gugny]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Was Harrison Phillips a healthy scratch?

 

Leave it to you to ask a football question in a thread about a dog.

[jletha]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm hampered by "No All-22" and the new Gamepass interface which, unless I'm missing something, has no ability to go directly to different plays.  It sucks.

That said, I'm halfway through a detailed re-watch of the game and I'm here to say that I see a BUTTLOAD of pressure still.

 

There were 3 throw aways under pressure and a batted pass - that's 25% of the passes thrown in the first half.  Of the 16 throws, I consider Allen under pressure in half of them.

 

 Now I'll say right here that it's not the whole story - there were 2 high throws and a pick, and there was an additional throw I would call a bad decision.  Two were not thrown under pressure and 2 were. So that's 25% of the passes thrown in the first half. 

 

A number of the 7 completions lacked pressure only because they were quick passes.  There was one completion on a deep pass.

 

So I would say that while it wasn't the complete and total jailbreak of the Pitt game, there was still a lot of pressure and Allen wasn't running for his life trying to pass as much because he was either getting the ball out quickly, or he was just running.

 

 

See, I disagree with a lot of the take here (see above).  I think pass rush was still a concern, and I don't understand how someone could watch the game and think it wasn't.  There were poor throws - a high throw and the pick - that were NOT thrown under pressure.    Rashoman-like!  Most of the first half completions had no pressure only because they were quick throws.

 

I said elsewhere and will repeat here, one objective stat is the 'pocket time" metric on pro-football-reference.  It was 2.6 seconds last year, and is 1.2 seconds so far this year.  Pressure is an issue.  Hopefully all the running we did this game will help.

 

However....you may be "on" to something about the impact of Sanders.

Diggs 13 receptions on 21 targets, 62%

Beasley 12 receptions on 17 targets, 71%

Sanders 6 receptions on 14 targets, 43%

He's not being targeted more than Diggs or Sanders, but he's getting a lot of targets and catching less of them, and I would say that Allen's timing with him is just off.

 

 

 

Based on what Ive seen, seems like both games the teams bracketed Beasley and Diggs on every play. Basically saying "Youre going to beat us with someone else"

 

Obviously not every team will be able to do this but its also something the Bills need to work on. Beyond that Josh's throwing motion doesnt look the same.

[Protocal69]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm hampered by "No All-22" and the new Gamepass interface which, unless I'm missing something, has no ability to go directly to different plays.  It sucks.

That said, I'm halfway through a detailed re-watch of the game and I'm here to say that I see a BUTTLOAD of pressure still.

 

There were 3 throw aways under pressure and a batted pass - that's 25% of the passes thrown in the first half.  Of the 16 throws, I consider Allen under pressure in half of them.

 

 Now I'll say right here that it's not the whole story - there were 2 high throws and a pick, and there was an additional throw I would call a bad decision.  Two were not thrown under pressure and 2 were. So that's 25% of the passes thrown in the first half. 

 

A number of the 7 completions lacked pressure only because they were quick passes.  There was one completion on a deep pass.

 

So I would say that while it wasn't the complete and total jailbreak of the Pitt game, there was still a lot of pressure and Allen wasn't running for his life trying to pass as much because he was either getting the ball out quickly, or he was just running.

 

 

See, I disagree with a lot of the take here (see above).  I think pass rush was still a concern, and I don't understand how someone could watch the game and think it wasn't.  There were poor throws - a high throw and the pick - that were NOT thrown under pressure.    Rashoman-like!  Most of the first half completions had no pressure only because they were quick throws.

 

I said elsewhere and will repeat here, one objective stat is the 'pocket time" metric on pro-football-reference.  It was 2.6 seconds last year, and is 1.2 seconds so far this year.  Pressure is an issue.  Hopefully all the running we did this game will help.

 

However....you may be "on" to something about the impact of Sanders.

Diggs 13 receptions on 21 targets, 62%

Beasley 12 receptions on 17 targets, 71%

Sanders 6 receptions on 14 targets, 43%

He's not being targeted more than Diggs or Sanders, but he's getting a lot of targets and catching less of them, and I would say that Allen's timing with him is just off.

 

 

 

What's crazy about the ALL-22 thing is that some people have access to them somehow. I  messaged a guy on youtube that had the ALL-22 and he attached a google file link with all of weeks 1 ALL-22 except for the Bills game cause the file was corrupt smh at my request. Here is the file: 

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1GawwQ-BsDNy_k4NaN_MAmt8QmcoDCaKB

[Casey D]

Everyone should read the Kubiak analysis in the BN today.  Explains much.  Sorry but I can't seem to link it.

 

[[Mod Edit to add link: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-dont-analyze-josh-allens-stats-analyze-the-decisions-hes-making/article_dca2609a-1a64-11ec-a59d-1b92017538b4.html

 

It may help to use the little link icon above, or to type some text that you highlight then paste over on an idevice]]

[Protocal69]

I wonder if Diggs and Sanders have gotten into Josh head about hitting the deep ball more and that is affecting Allen play. I know that Diggs wanted more deep ball oppportunites. 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Love the 7-wood analogy— for Me, it’s my 5-wood! 

[Nihilarian]

Good stuff as usual Virgil.

 

It was good to see the Bills win a game with Josh Allen NOT needing to attempt to carry the game.

 

The defense played great from the very start and kept it up all game. They carried this game. 

 

33 passes, 30 runs was a better balance.

 

Interesting... Miami caught more passes and and had more passing yards. 

 

 

Let's not forget that the Miami defense has a very good secondary with two of the highest paid corners in the league. 

 

Opposing teams have had all offseason to figure out Buffalo's offensive passing scheme and defenses have caught up. They all watched that 2020 AFC championship game in which the Chiefs only rushed four and dropped more into coverage.

 

We can expect more difficulty in Buffalo passing the ball until Daboll can work some magic with the offense. Getting that run game working with some scripted runs/short throws to start the game might help. 

 

I have faith the Bills offense will start clicking soon. Would like to see Beas with more targets, 4 targets, 4 catches!! Same with Kumerow to see more targets...one target for Jake doesn't cut it. 

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

11 hours ago, Virgil said:

Everyone has the club in their golf bag.  You know the one I'm talking about (for me, it's the 7 wood).  You are hooking and slicing shots all day and can't quite figure out what's wrong.  Then you pull out that one club, crush it down the middle, and all of your clubs magically start to work again.  For the Bills and McD, that club is the Miami Dolphins.  After a 35-0 beating, one would think that all is right with the world, but confidence still isn't where it was before the season and the offense is the reason why.

 

1 - AJ Epenesa - The more I write these, the more you'll hear me say "I'm wrong a lot."  I'm not willing to say declare him a stud just yet, but AJ played one hell of a game.  I'm going to talk about the rest of the defense in a moment, but AJ deserved his own thought.  I personally believe it's only a matter of time before the NFL makes a rule change because of how he is hitting the quarterback.  We saw it in the preseason and we saw it again today.  After completely bull-rushing the left tackle, AJ launches his whole body off the ground and destroys the upper half of the quarterback.  It's like watching a Madden animation.  In a game where everyone on defense seemed to get theirs, that only goes to show just how good AJ had to play to stand out.  With Groot also having a good game on the other side, it's hard to not be optimistic about the future of this defensive pass rush unit.

 

8 - 4th down - If one thing let to this game to being a shutout blowout, it would be the execution on 4th down.  The Bills were great and the Dolphins were far from it.  The Dolphins easily could have put up 6 points with field goals as they made it deep into Bills territory a few times.  Taron Johnson and Dane Jackson each made huge tackles in the open field to create a turnover on downs and the Bills defense simply found ways to come up big in seemingly every situation.  Beyond that, the Dolphins were sloppy with the ball and seemed rattled from the beginning.  From the memes and media reaction, it appears we are starting to become their white whale.

 

1-1 with two very winnable games coming up.  It's a great position to be in and hopefully the offense can find their rhythm during those games.  If they do, and the defense continues to perform like this, the NFL is will officially be on notice. 

 

Go Bills!!!

Great post as always man! 

 

I highlighted two things you wrote above that jumped out the most to me:

 

Epenesa/Groot/Youth on the Defensive Line- aside from Josh and the passing offense maintaining or exceeding its success in 2020, the pass rush and development of the younger defensive line players is the number one driver to the Bills beating the Chiefs and potentially winning a Super Bowl in my opinion. Early days, but it's been awesome to watch these guys and I'd add Ed Oliver here too...he's been outstanding.

 

Becoming the Miami Dolphins' White Whale- unreal to be on the other side of this type of equation after so many years of losing to the Patriots. It would have been hard to believe just a few years ago that we could be so dominant over a division rival like this...we truly seem to have their number despite their attempts to reconstruct their roster to beat us.

 

Go Bills!

[3rdnlng]

8 hours ago, Gugny said:

 

Did you name her Gug?

He's not that mean. He named it Shitsu instead. 

[qwksilver]

Congrats on Lana. Labs/retrievers are the #1 breed in America for a reason. Have fun.

Another great write up. 

This team will be dangerous if they ever get things straightened out on both sides of the ball at the same time, special teams included.