"If Allen Plays Like Crap This Week, Accept that He's Simply Not Good

[Jobot]

Clown post.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, teef said:

i think everyone is one the same page for improvements needed.  it's the level of reaction/overreaction that seems to be the divide.

 

TBH, not entirely.  For example I read "Pass rush was not a concern, nor was players getting open.  Josh simply was missing them. " from a very reasonable, knowledgeable poster. 

 

Now granted he posts off impressions watching the game the first time through and is open about saying so, but it has me wondering if he and I are watching the same game, because it's just not what I saw.  There's some definite "Rashoman" vibe going down here.

 

I've only gone through half the game in detail because the new gamepass interface SUCKS and not having all-22 SUCKS and nfl.com SUCKS for taking my money and not giving me the same product I paid for, but (for example) in the first half of 16 passes, I saw 2 throws where Allen had time and an open player and simply missed.  I saw 3 throwaways under pressure and a batted ball.  There were two bad decisions (the INT, and another play where Allen was hit as he threw), both under duress.

 

There were 6 completions, and 5 of those completions were swing passes or checkdowns or quick fast passes.  There was only one deep pass where Allen had time to let it develop.  So is this 2018 Allen, no way - that guy never threw the ball away.  Is Josh simply standing there in a clean pocket missing guys?  Also no way, with the 2 exceptions noted above.

 

Objective data towards the above, Allen is listed as 1.2 seconds pocket time vs 2.6 seconds last year on pro-football-reference; and elsewhere posted that he's faced one of the highest "pressure allowed" rates so far.

 

 

[uninja]

4 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

This obsessive worry over Allen seems weird to me.

 

We're a board of Bills fans, most of them deeply scarred and broken by 2 decades of futility and irrelevance, sprinkled in with just enough hope only to have the rug pulled out from under us when we drop our guard.

 

I'm surprised at how civil the discourse here is for the most part.

[billsfan_34]

Two games into the season and the third game we would annoint JA a failure after going to the AFC East Championship Game last year? Call me crazy, but I am for the benefit of the doubt here.

[CincyBillsFan]

Just now, uninja said:

 

We're a board of Bills fans, most of them deeply scarred and broken by 2 decades of futility and irrelevance, sprinkled in with just enough hope only to have the rug pulled out from under us when we drop our guard.

 

I'm surprised at how civil the discourse here is for the most part.

I agree and posted earlier that Bills fans have football's version of PTSS.  And don't forget that right before the great 20 year slump the Bill's lost FOUR straight Super Bowls.  That will shake a fan base for sure.

 

 

Just now, billsfan_34 said:

Two games into the season and the third game we would annoint JA a failure after going to the AFC East Championship Game last year? Call me crazy, but I am for the benefit of the doubt here.

And after a solid outing in 2019 where Allen improved and helped lead the Bills to a playoff game that they earned not one they backed into (see 2017).

 

 

[Rocky Landing]

17 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's really this simple, until Allen proves last year wasn't a fluke he's the same guy we saw in 2018/2019 right now....extremely erratic with a few glipses of greatness sprinkled in. You don't pay $250M for that, not even close and we have the right to demand better as fans since there were many of us that understood last year could have been an outlier and not really who Allen is. And you can't make the comparison to midseason last year since he came out guns blazing in the first four games.

 

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday. Honestly Allen is lucky he didn't have 3 or 4 INT yesterday but obviously it's not under the microscope so to speak because our defense gave one of the best performances of the McD/Frazier era.

 

Allen must get his head right quickly starting this week.

OMFG.....

Proves last year wasn't a fluke to whom???

 

Side Note: I would just like to thank the mods, and @Hapless Bills Fan for making this its own thread. @FilthyBeast should get a plaque, or something.

[1ManRaid]

17 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's really this simple, until Allen proves last year wasn't a fluke he's the same guy we saw in 2018/2019 right now....extremely erratic with a few glipses of greatness sprinkled in. You don't pay $250M for that, not even close and we have the right to demand better as fans since there were many of us that understood last year could have been an outlier and not really who Allen is. And you can't make the comparison to midseason last year since he came out guns blazing in the first four games.

 

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday. Honestly Allen is lucky he didn't have 3 or 4 INT yesterday but obviously it's not under the microscope so to speak because our defense gave one of the best performances of the McD/Frazier era.

 

Allen must get his head right quickly starting this week.

 

You call last year "a few glimpses of greatness"?

[FilthyBeast]

I don't understand how this thread was started because I don't even know how to start my own because I've tried before?

 

But I just want to note that it doesn't mean the season is over after 3 games or Allen is completely trash, it's just hard to understand how a guy who had an MVP caliber season last year can be among the worst QB's in the league after 2 games in 2021. His YPA is even worse than his rookie season which is unfathomable.

[MJS]

So if Allen has another pedestrian passing game, it's impossible for him to have any more good passing games for the rest of the year?

 

That's a tough rule.

[Rocky Landing]

2 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

I don't understand how this thread was started because I don't even know how to start my own because I've tried before?

 

But I just want to note that it doesn't mean the season is over after 3 games or Allen is completely trash, it's just hard to understand how a guy who had an MVP caliber season last year can be among the worst QB's in the league after 2 games in 2021. His YPA is even worse than his rookie season which is unfathomable.

Unfathomable, indeed!

[1ManRaid]

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

I don't understand how this thread was started because I don't even know how to start my own because I've tried before?

 

But I just want to note that it doesn't mean the season is over after 3 games or Allen is completely trash, it's just hard to understand how a guy who had an MVP caliber season last year can be among the worst QB's in the league after 2 games in 2021. His YPA is even worse than his rookie season which is unfathomable.

 

I guess you missed that big neon blue header at the top of the page explaining how it became its own thread?

[wiseman3]

2 games into the season and getting worried is laughable. 2 freaking weeks! At least wait 4 games before freaking out. Deep breaths

[MJS]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

TBH, not entirely.  For example I read "Pass rush was not a concern, nor was players getting open.  Josh simply was missing them. " from a very reasonable, knowledgeable poster. 

 

Now granted he posts off impressions watching the game the first time through and is open about saying so, but it has me wondering if he and I are watching the same game, because it's just not what I saw.  There's some definite "Rashoman" vibe going down here.

 

I've only gone through half the game in detail because the new gamepass interface SUCKS and not having all-22 SUCKS and nfl.com SUCKS for taking my money and not giving me the same product I paid for, but (for example) in the first half of 16 passes, I saw 2 throws where Allen had time and an open player and simply missed.  I saw 3 throwaways under pressure and a batted ball.  There were two bad decisions (the INT, and another play where Allen was hit as he threw), both under duress.

 

There were 6 completions, and 5 of those completions were swing passes or checkdowns or quick fast passes.  There was only one deep pass where Allen had time to let it develop.  So is this 2018 Allen, no way - that guy never threw the ball away.  Is Josh simply standing there in a clean pocket missing guys?  Also no way, with the 2 exceptions noted above.

 

Objective data towards the above, Allen is listed as 1.2 seconds pocket time vs 2.6 seconds last year on pro-football-reference; and elsewhere posted that he's faced one of the highest "pressure allowed" rates so far.

Asking some fans to be objective and actually consider situations on the field is way too much to ask. You should know this. This place has always been reactionary. Every throw is how the rest of Allen's career will go.

 

Honestly, even the positivity after big wins and big passing games is way too reactionary.

 

It's the same sentiment that had Bills fans calling Allen a bust after his first season because of his low completion percentage. They simply can't help but overreact to small sample sizes.

 

I avoid TBD after losses for the most part because it's toxic and just kind of stupid. Even after a 35-0 spanking of the Dolphins fans can't handle some temporary struggles in the passing game.

[Dopey]

Bring in Mitch, and I mean right now!!!

[auburnbillsbacker]

So do we ignore all of last season then?  

[Rico]

25 minutes ago, Jobot said:

Clown post.

Troll post > Clown post. Sounds like Billi. 

[CincyBillsFan]

I recommend that everyone get Sal Maiorana's history of the Buffalo Bills through the 1994 SB called "Relentless".  It has box scores for EVERY Bills game played from 1960 - 1994. You can learn a lot that puts everything into perspective:

 

First a disclaimer - IMO Jim Kelly is the greatest QB to ever play for the Bills and it's not close.  Kelly is also a HOF QB.  But like even the greatest QB's Kelly had his off games including a series of off games.  So let's take a trip down memory lane:

 

1988 - the year the Bills broke through and made it all the way to the AFC championship game.  Here's how Kelly started the first three games that season.  All were Bills wins:

 

week 1: Buffalo 13 Minnesota 10 - Kelly was 17/31 for 204 yards and one INT.  NO TD's

week 2: Buffalo 9 Miami 6 - Kelly was 15/24 for 231 yards and one INT. NO TD's

week 3: Buffalo 16 New England 14 - Kelly was 21/33 for 170 yards and two INT's.  NO TD's. One of his INT's was at the NE two yard line.

 

So through the first 3 games of 1988 Kelly had thrown NO TD passes and FOUR INT's.  We were 3 -0 at the time but can you imagine how this board would have reacted?

 

Now let's jump to later in that season and see how Kelly fared against a bad (4-10) Tampa Bay team:

 

First the Bills lost 10 - 5 and Kelly was 23/40 for 249 yards and two INT's.  NO TD pass. This loss cost us home field advantage in the playoffs that year.

 

I didn't even look at 1989 and when I flipped to 1990 - the Bills first Super Bowl year - I found this in only the 2nd game:

 

week 2: Miami 30 Buffalo 7 - Kelly was 14/23 for 140 yards and one INT.

 

Bottom line we are weeks away from having any reason to be concerned about Allen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Monty98]

23 minutes ago, 1ManRaid said:

 

You call last year "a few glimpses of greatness"?

No I think he's saying last year was the statistical anomaly, and that Allen is looking like the 2019 Allen with meh play but with glimpses of what his potential can be.

 

On to my point, I think part of the reason of his poor start is the lack of playing time he had in the preseason. No time to build chemistry and work on timing with players or get comfortable with their game play. He's not in tune with Sanders just yet, seems like he's not in full synch with Diggs either, and our guys have also had some bad drops. I'm not worried just yet, now if Allen self implodes these next two weeks I'll officially be worried

[GreggTX]

Obviously another bad game will raise concerns, but I don't know how a player can regress this far unless he doesn't care (ie- Dareus) or he gets injured. He looked good in camp too against what's obviously a good defense. I think he'll turn this around, but in the mean time, his haters at PFF, EA Sports and that weird looking, nerdy guy with the taxi door ears on TV that's always crapping on him.

[BringBackFlutie]

16 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Let's take a factual look at Allen.  19 games last season, so how about games 10-13?  He wasn't injured or recovering from injury then AFAIK

comp-att-% comp- yds-TD-INT-rating-sacks-yds-Y/A-AY/A

 

Last 2 weeks:

 

Maybe even a record-setting offensive season isn't quite the panacea of unvarying excellence you all seem to expect.

Earlier in the season, Allen passed for this against NE:

We went into that game with another run heavy game plan

 

One step further: 95% of data in a normal distribution lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean.

If we look at regular season 2020, this range is between 53-85% completions, 107-461 ypg, 0-5 TD/game, 0-2 INT/game, and a rating between 62-151

 

I'm not trying to say Allen's been good the last two weeks, but his data isn't even factually outside the range of what we saw in a number of games last season to work yourself into a froth about "last year could have been an outlier and he's the same guy we saw in 2019 and and and and" spluttering.

 

"We have a right to demand better as fans" Geeze Louise, what exactly right do you think you have, who gave it to you, and where is this QB tree you think Beane can stroll up to and pluck an improved QB who never has a down game from?

 

 

One more time: Pittsburgh was missing 5 of their starting 11 on defense yesterday.  Tuitt (IR), Haden (CB) and Bush (LB) were inactive going into the game.

Alualu (DT) and Watt (DE/LB) were injured during the game.

 

Maybe...when you're missing almost half your starting defense, the quality falls off a bit?

 

Congratulations, you're achieving an unstated goal.

 

For numbers, see above

You're pretty alright in my book, Hap.

 

...pretty alright.