"If Allen Plays Like Crap This Week, Accept that He's Simply Not Good

[FilthyBeast]

18 minutes ago, zow2 said:

This needs to be a game where the O shows up.  Justin Herbert and Daniel Jones both had really good games against Washington.  If Allen and the Bills offense struggles again at home, in front of our fans, we're going to have a board meltdown.   I don't think Buffalo will be able to run the ball all that well, but they should be able to throw it and have great success.

 

Agree, if Allen plays like crap again this week there are no more excuses. It will be time to accept that he's simply not good and behind closed doors in Orchard Park there will be serious buyers remorse knowing that he had a fluke year during the weird fanless covid year.

 

Washington has a good dline and but has struggled mightily overall and is lucky to be 1-1 right now. And even if they were a top defense Allen played extremely well against many top 10 defenses last year and has to show that again given his contract. Really hope he can turn it around and come out firing.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Agree, if Allen plays like crap again this week there are no more excuses. It will be time to accept that he's simply not good and behind closed doors in Orchard Park there will be serious buyers remorse knowing that he had a fluke year during the weird fanless covid year.

 

Washington has a good dline and but has struggled mightily overall and is lucky to be 1-1 right now. And even if they were a top defense Allen played extremely well against many top 10 defenses last year and has to show that again given his contract. Really hope he can turn it around and come out firing.

Ridiculous overreaction. O-line has to get their act together. Josh is a little off. Defensive Coordinators studied the film and figured out what we were doing. Strategy and tactics adapt. They'll work it out, just maybe not quick enough to stop Chicken Littleitis.

Just now, TBBills said:

So funny when someone puts "I hope the players are not doing that"... you do know I am a fan and not a player. I am allowed to down talk a team, to help my own confidence going into the game b.c I cannot play.

 

I did not mean this in a bad way but as a fan I feel the need to be overly confident just b.c if I am worried the whole week I wont like it.

Alright, if that makes you feel better, go for it. I don't think it's one of the easier games, particularly.

[BillsFan619]

2 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

Agree, if Allen plays like crap again this week there are no more excuses. It will be time to accept that he's simply not good and behind closed doors in Orchard Park there will be serious buyers remorse knowing that he had a fluke year during the weird fanless covid year.

 

Washington has a good dline and but has struggled mightily overall and is lucky to be 1-1 right now. And even if they were a top defense Allen played extremely well against many top 10 defenses last year and has to show that again given his contract. Really hope he can turn it around and come out firing.

Good thing you’re not McBeane when JA had a similar struggle last year that lasted three to four games instead of two.

[FilthyBeast]

1 hour ago, BillsFan619 said:

Good thing you’re not McBeane when JA had a similar struggle last year that lasted three to four games instead of two.

 

It's really this simple, until Allen proves last year wasn't a fluke he's the same guy we saw in 2018/2019 right now....extremely erratic with a few glipses of greatness sprinkled in. You don't pay $250M for that, not even close and we have the right to demand better as fans since there were many of us that understood last year could have been an outlier and not really who Allen is. And you can't make the comparison to midseason last year since he came out guns blazing in the first four games.

 

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday. Honestly Allen is lucky he didn't have 3 or 4 INT yesterday but obviously it's not under the microscope so to speak because our defense gave one of the best performances of the McD/Frazier era.

 

Allen must get his head right quickly starting this week.

[Big Blitz]

These next 2 games you just gotta put in the bank.  

 

Sucks we could have seen Fitz and then Tyrod back to back at home. 

40 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

 

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday. Honestly Allen is lucky he didn't have 3 or 4 INT yesterday but obviously it's not under the microscope so to speak because our defense gave one of the best performances of the McD/Frazier era.

 

Allen must get his head right quickly starting this week.

 

 

Haden and Bush did not play and Watt played 1 quarter.   

 

That was not the Steelers defense yesterday.  

 

 

We played 2 elite pass defenses with ball hawks around the field.  Would I have liked Allen to light them up sure.  But the oline was a mess week 1 and Howard and Jones played really well yesterday.  Allen's threat opened up the running game and that's what has to happen as he sees more and more 7 men 2 deep coverage.   

[Dablitzkrieg]

Washington is not scoring more than 10.  Bills flood.  27-10

45 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's really this simple, until Allen proves last year wasn't a fluke he's the same guy we saw in 2018/2019 right now....extremely erratic with a few glipses of greatness sprinkled in. You don't pay $250M for that, not even close and we have the right to demand better as fans since there were many of us that understood last year could have been an outlier and not really who Allen is. And you can't make the comparison to midseason last year since he came out guns blazing in the first four games.

 

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday. Honestly Allen is lucky he didn't have 3 or 4 INT yesterday but obviously it's not under the microscope so to speak because our defense gave one of the best performances of the McD/Frazier era.

 

Allen must get his head right quickly starting this week.

Imagine thinking an entire year is a fluke 

[Pokebball]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's really this simple, until Allen proves last year wasn't a fluke he's the same guy we saw in 2018/2019 right now....extremely erratic with a few glipses of greatness sprinkled in. You don't pay $250M for that, not even close and we have the right to demand better as fans since there were many of us that understood last year could have been an outlier and not really who Allen is. And you can't make the comparison to midseason last year since he came out guns blazing in the first four games.

 

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday. Honestly Allen is lucky he didn't have 3 or 4 INT yesterday but obviously it's not under the microscope so to speak because our defense gave one of the best performances of the McD/Frazier era.

 

Allen must get his head right quickly starting this week.

Not arguing your point that Josh needs to return to form.  But yes, the Raiders appear to be that good and two, Watt was injured in the first half and didn't return.  He's the leader of the Steeler's defense.  His absence mattered.

Edited September 20, 2021 by Pokebball

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's really this simple, until Allen proves last year wasn't a fluke he's the same guy we saw in 2018/2019 right now....extremely erratic with a few glipses of greatness sprinkled in. You don't pay $250M for that, not even close and we have the right to demand better as fans since there were many of us that understood last year could have been an outlier and not really who Allen is. And you can't make the comparison to midseason last year since he came out guns blazing in the first four games.

 

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday. Honestly Allen is lucky he didn't have 3 or 4 INT yesterday but obviously it's not under the microscope so to speak because our defense gave one of the best performances of the McD/Frazier era.

 

Allen must get his head right quickly starting this week.

First off he was a lot better in 2019 then he was in 2018.  So combining those two years is not justified by the way he played.  For example in 2018 Allen had 10 TD passes and 12 INT's.  In 2019 he had 20 TD passes and 9 INTS. 

 

And through the first two games of 2021 he hasn't looked anything like he did in 2018.

 

IMO Allen is operating about halfway between 2019 & 2020. Yesterday he had 3TD's (yes he scored on his run) to 1 INT. 

 

To use the word "terrible" to describe Allen's first two games is just as big of an exaggeration as saying he played "great".

 

And please with the he could have had "3 or 4 INT" stuff. Mahomes had one INT and could have had 2 more.  Every week QB's almost throw INT's - so what? 

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

First off he was a lot better in 2019 then he was in 2018.  So combining those two years is not justified by the way he played.  For example in 2018 Allen had 10 TD passes and 12 INT's.  In 2019 he had 20 TD passes and 9 INTS. 

 

And through the first two games of 2021 he hasn't looked anything like he did in 2018.

 

IMO Allen is operating about halfway between 2019 & 2020. Yesterday he had 3TD's (yes he scored on his run) to 1 INT. 

 

To use the word "terrible" to describe Allen's first two games is just as big of an exaggeration as saying he played "great".

 

And please with the he could have had "3 or 4 INT" stuff. Mahomes had one INT and could have had 2 more.  Every week QB's almost throw INT's - so what? 

 

 

 

My goal isn't to trash Allen, as of now I still believe in him and think that as a whole this entire offense just isn't right and off to a slow start.

 

But the numbers don't lie and everything ultimately goes back to the QB so until I see it with my own eyes he's simply not up to the standard an alleged elite franchise QB needs. Regression is fine and was expected to a certain degree but not with completion percentage among other metrics being so dreadful.

[newcam2012]

5 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Ridiculous overreaction. O-line has to get their act together. Josh is a little off. Defensive Coordinators studied the film and figured out what we were doing. Strategy and tactics adapt. They'll work it out, just maybe not quick enough to stop Chicken Littleitis.

Alright, if that makes you feel better, go for it. I don't think it's one of the easier games, particularly.

It's probably an overreaction but your " the Bills and Allen will figure it out" thinking can be similarly a positive overreaction. There no facts in your conclusion or projection. Sure, you could be right and I hope you are! Just saying it cuts both ways. Others like myself aren't so quick to believe "it will all get figured out." That's ok too right? The fact remains the Bills offense and Allen have been mediocre at best. Let's stick with the facts...

Edited September 20, 2021 by newcam2012

[Success]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

It's probably an overreaction but your " the Bills and Allen will figure it out" thinking can be similarly a positive overreaction. There really is no fact based statements in your conclusion or projection. Sure you could be right and in hope you are! Just saying it cuts both ways. Others like myself aren't so quick to believe it will all get figured out. That's ok too right? The fact remains the Bills offense and Allen have been mediocre at best. Let's stick with the facts...

 

So, aren't you taking more of a 2-game sample, while others are basing their predictions on an entire season of play (2020)?

 

Scientifically speaking, there is a much great probability that Allen is who he was last year, than who we've seen by mid-September this year.

 

[CincyBillsFan]

24 minutes ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

 

Imagine thinking an entire year is a fluke 

I think that Bills fans have the equivalent of football PTSD.  First the Bills lose FOUR straight Super Bowls with a team loaded with all pro and HOF talent.  Then the Bills go into a 20 year equivalent of football purgatory.  Now we have our franchise QB, Head Coach and GM and a roster loaded with talent and the negativism is off the charts for some people.

 

And a lot of that negativism is aimed at Allen as it has been since he was drafted.  Now to be clear this is a minority of Bills fans but they're vocal.  So what if they're just a little bit right and Allen plays well but not like he did in 2020?  Well let's look at Rogers and Green Bay to get an idea:

 

In 2019 GB went 13 - 3 and made it to the NFC championship game.

In 2020 GB went 13 - 3 and made it to the NFC championship game.

 

But look at Rogers:

 

In 2019 his QB rating was a solid 95.4 and his QBR was a good but not great 52.5

In 2020 his QB rating was an outstanding 121.5 and hi QBR was an excellent 84.4.  And he won the MVP.

 

Rogers 2020 season was much better then his 2019 season but the team achieved the exact same thing.  Allen can slip some this year if our Defense and running game improve.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

6 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

My goal isn't to trash Allen, as of now I still believe in him and think that as a whole this entire offense just isn't right and off to a slow start.

 

But the numbers don't lie and everything ultimately goes back to the QB so until I see it with my own eyes he's simply not up to the standard an alleged elite franchise QB needs. Regression is fine and was expected to a certain degree but not with completion percentage among other metrics being so dreadful.

The numbers don't lie but their interpretation can be way off.  And who says that in the fullness of the season Allen is experiencing a regression? It's more likely that we're seeing the normal variability in performance we can expect to see from Allen.  Check out the stats for any of the other elite QB's not named Mahomes and you can see a fair spread from year to year. It is to be expected.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's really this simple, until Allen proves last year wasn't a fluke he's the same guy we saw in 2018/2019 right now....extremely erratic with a few glipses of greatness sprinkled in. You don't pay $250M for that, not even close and we have the right to demand better as fans since there were many of us that understood last year could have been an outlier and not really who Allen is. And you can't make the comparison to midseason last year since he came out guns blazing in the first four games.

 

Let's take a factual look at Allen.  19 games last season, so how about games 10-13?  He wasn't injured or recovering from injury then AFAIK

comp-att-% comp- yds-TD-INT-rating-sacks-yds-Y/A-AY/A

 

Last 2 weeks:

 

Maybe even a record-setting offensive season isn't quite the panacea of unvarying excellence you all seem to expect.

Earlier in the season, Allen passed for this against NE:

We went into that game with another run heavy game plan

 

One step further: 95% of data in a normal distribution lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean.

If we look at regular season 2020, this range is between 53-85% completions, 107-461 ypg, 0-5 TD/game, 0-2 INT/game, and a rating between 62-151

 

I'm not trying to say Allen's been good the last two weeks, but his data isn't even factually outside the range of what we saw in a number of games last season to work yourself into a froth about "last year could have been an outlier and he's the same guy we saw in 2019 and and and and" spluttering.

 

"We have a right to demand better as fans" Geeze Louise, what exactly right do you think you have, who gave it to you, and where is this QB tree you think Beane can stroll up to and pluck an improved QB who never has a down game from?

 

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday

 

One more time: Pittsburgh was missing 5 of their starting 11 on defense yesterday.  Tuitt (IR), Haden (CB) and Bush (LB) were inactive going into the game.

Alualu (DT) and Watt (DE/LB) were injured during the game.

 

Maybe...when you're missing almost half your starting defense, the quality falls off a bit?

11 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

My goal isn't to trash Allen, as of now I still believe in him and think that as a whole this entire offense just isn't right and off to a slow start.

 

But the numbers don't lie and everything ultimately goes back to the QB so until I see it with my own eyes he's simply not up to the standard an alleged elite franchise QB needs. Regression is fine and was expected to a certain degree but not with completion percentage among other metrics being so dreadful.

 

Congratulations, you're achieving an unstated goal.

 

For numbers, see above

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

It's probably an overreaction but your " the Bills and Allen will figure it out" thinking can be similarly a positive overreaction. There no facts in your conclusion or projection. Sure, you could be right and I hope you are! Just saying it cuts both ways. Others like myself aren't so quick to believe "it will all get figured out." That's ok too right? The fact remains the Bills offense and Allen have been mediocre at best. Let's stick with the facts...

Dude is declaring last year a fraud and behind closed doors the braintrust is going to be in utter despair if Allen has a bad game against WFT. 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

It's really this simple, until Allen proves last year wasn't a fluke he's the same guy we saw in 2018/2019 right now....extremely erratic with a few glipses of greatness sprinkled in. You don't pay $250M for that, not even close and we have the right to demand better as fans since there were many of us that understood last year could have been an outlier and not really who Allen is. And you can't make the comparison to midseason last year since he came out guns blazing in the first four games.

 

He's been terrible from the get go and now we also now Pittsburgh isn't nearly as good as we thought either given Carr's performance yesterday. Honestly Allen is lucky he didn't have 3 or 4 INT yesterday but obviously it's not under the microscope so to speak because our defense gave one of the best performances of the McD/Frazier era.

 

Allen must get his head right quickly starting this week.

I agree with the theme of your post. Won't be popular on here because many continue to drink the "cool aid." I suppose the glass is half full...So many are afraid to be critical of Allen. Glad to see you are not. I will give players their do props when they earn it. 

[Success]

1 minute ago, newcam2012 said:

I agree with the theme of your post. Won't be popular on here because many continue to drink the "cool aid." I suppose the glass is half full...So many are afraid to be critical of Allen. Glad to see you are not. I will give players their do props when they earn it. 

 

Is "earning it" a game-to-game thing?

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

7 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The numbers don't lie but their interpretation can be way off.  And who says that in the fullness of the season Allen is experiencing a regression? It's more likely that we're seeing the normal variability in performance we can expect to see from Allen.  Check out the stats for any of the other elite QB's not named Mahomes and you can see a fair spread from year to year. It is to be expected.

 

Psssst: Shhh. 

Don't tell Mahomie's brother or mom, I don't wanna get trashed on Insta. 

Mahomes had 4 regular games with 58% or less completion last season.  One was 51%! 

He had 4 games less than 58% and a fifth 59% in 2019! 

 

That's with Kelce the truck, Cheetah Hill, and apparently one of the best offensive minds in the game calling plays.

 

It happens to Mahomes too.

[newcam2012]

5 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Dude is declaring last year a fraud and behind closed doors the braintrust is going to be in utter despair if Allen has a bad game against WFT. 

I didn't interpret that in his post. Imho, he wasn't "declaring" that. He merely pointed out that Allen might not be the franchise guy many think we have. I think that's a fair assessment. The sample size of Allen's greatness is about 10 games and out of the box this year he looks serviceable and not franchise like. No one really knows where Allen fits in. Probably somewhere in the middle. If we are seeing "his floor" right now then that's a pretty nice floor. Gotta see how it plays out. 

[newcam2012]

6 hours ago, Success said:

 

Is "earning it" a game-to-game thing?

 

Good question. It's game to game and cumulative. I'd say it's both. My eyes tell me Allen Is struggling mentally, with his mechanics, and has lost some confidence. He seems to be jittery, not going through his progressions, locking into one receiver, poor foot work, and lacking confidence. It's only 2 games and hoping he starts to play like last year. I expect some regression but hopefully it's minimal. 

Edited September 21, 2021 by newcam2012