DrDawkinstein Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 1:00 left, 4th and 1... Do you punt the ball and trust your Defense against Mahomes? Or do you poll your star QB and listen to his feedback (which will obviously be "go for it")? Going for it is Playing to Win. Punting is Playing not to lose. We FINALLY called a Josh sneak on 4th and 1 yesterday. But it kills me that it isnt an automatic, easy call every time it's 3rd/4th and 1. I'd like to think that McD would have some killer instinct in this situation, but a bigger part of me is pretty certain he would punt and lean on our Defense. 2 2 1 1 2
TheBrownBear Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 He knew his defense wasn't stopping Mahomes in that situation. It's an easy call when you're looking across the field at one of the 5 GOAT QBs. And I believe McDermott makes the same call there. 5 5
Logic Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 Yes, I think he absolutely does. McDermott was one of the most aggressive 4th and 1 coaches in the league last year. 1 5 2
DrDawkinstein Posted September 20, 2021 Author Posted September 20, 2021 1 minute ago, TheBrownBear said: He knew his defense wasn't stopping Mahomes in that situation. It's an easy call when you're looking across the field at one of the 5 GOAT QBs. And I believe McDermott makes the same call there. Even with our D playing as well as they have and McD being a D guy? Just now, Logic said: Yes, I think he absolutely does. McDermott was one of the most aggressive 4th and 1 coaches in the league last year. Well, I hope he gets his groove back soon because his two wussy calls in the 1st half of the Steelers game helped us lose that one. 3 1 2
TBBills Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 (edited) 8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: 1:00 left, 4th and 1... Do you punt the ball and trust your Defense against Mahomes? Or do you poll your star QB and listen to his feedback (which will obviously be "go for it")? Going for it is Playing to Win. Punting is Playing not to lose. We FINALLY called a Josh sneak on 4th and 1 yesterday. But it kills me that it isnt an automatic, easy call every time it's 3rd/4th and 1. I'd like to think that McD would have some killer instinct in this situation, but a bigger part of me is pretty certain he would punt and lean on our Defense. This is from before the season started talking about Harbaugh guts for going for in on 4th down. He is in a list of top 5. https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-s-best-fourth-down-decision-makers-kevin-stefanski-john-harbaugh-among-top-c Edited September 20, 2021 by TBBills Forgot link 1
nucci Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 4th and 1 or 2 should be a go more than 90% of the time 1 1
TBBills Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 1 minute ago, nucci said: 4th and 1 or 2 should be a go more than 90% of the time That is what the stats are telling coaches now, this will be the new norm sooner or later. 1
RyanC883 Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 McD may make the same call, but is Daboll smart enough to call a QB sneak, or will he get cute? I don't get the QB sneak hesitancy. Brady did this all the time with the Pats**, and it almost always worked. And I don't recall him ever getting injured from it. 3 2
Tenhigh Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 Not going to lie, I was thinking McD would lean on his defense in that scenario. 4
Logic Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 This is since 2018, and has McDermott in 13th place in the "going for it when they should on 4th down" metric. Looking at just 2020, I believe McDermott was top three, although I can't seem to find a graphic to prove it.
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 6 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said: He knew his defense wasn't stopping Mahomes in that situation. It's an easy call when you're looking across the field at one of the 5 GOAT QBs. And I believe McDermott makes the same call there. Agreed. It was about as no-brainer of a call you can get. I get that he is being praised for his guts— but the alternative was giving Mahomes the ball with like 1:30, and needing only a FG to win. 1
FilthyBeast Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: 1:00 left, 4th and 1... Do you punt the ball and trust your Defense against Mahomes? Or do you poll your star QB and listen to his feedback (which will obviously be "go for it")? Going for it is Playing to Win. Punting is Playing not to lose. We FINALLY called a Josh sneak on 4th and 1 yesterday. But it kills me that it isnt an automatic, easy call every time it's 3rd/4th and 1. I'd like to think that McD would have some killer instinct in this situation, but a bigger part of me is pretty certain he would punt and lean on our Defense. He's going to have to and it goes back to the championship game last year when he decided to kick field goals on fourth and goal situations instead of realizing they need to be aggressive to have a chance. As of right now though it looks the Chiefs defense is not very good but we thought that last year as well and they seemed to play their best game of the season against the Bills when it mattered. 1
BringBackFlutie Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, Logic said: Yes, I think he absolutely does. McDermott was one of the most aggressive 4th and 1 coaches in the league last year. I agree. He seems to be perfectly willing to go for it when he thinks it'll really put things away. One thing I hope we do from now on, though, is realize that that you absolutely need a yard, you put the ball in the best player on the field's hands. Always. We should never go for it on 4th and 1, in a crucial moment, and take the ball out of Josh's hands. 1
TheBrownBear Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said: Even with our D playing as well as they have and McD being a D guy? Of course, it's situational. I assumed you were talking about the same scenario - 1 point lead, facing a Mahomes-led team that has already scored 35 points on your defense (and would have scored more if not for the CEH fumble the moment before). McDermott is absolutely going for it on 4th in that situation. Now, if it's 3-0 Buffalo, and Mahomes has played the worst game in his life and our defense hasn't let him get past midfield, then maybe he punts? But in that scenario, Mahomes isn't "Mahomes", at least not on that day.
Hapless Bills Fan Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said: He knew his defense wasn't stopping Mahomes in that situation. It's an easy call when you're looking across the field at one of the 5 GOAT QBs. And I believe McDermott makes the same call there. IDK man, McDermott made some Squab calls in the AFCCG 1 1
YattaOkasan Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 Yes McD didnt do well in the AFCCG but yesterday he went for it on 4th and 1 up 21-0. If anything AFCCG was the aberration.
DrDawkinstein Posted September 20, 2021 Author Posted September 20, 2021 10 minutes ago, RyanC883 said: McD may make the same call, but is Daboll smart enough to call a QB sneak, or will he get cute? I don't get the QB sneak hesitancy. Brady did this all the time with the Pats**, and it almost always worked. And I don't recall him ever getting injured from it. 6 minutes ago, BringBackFlutie said: I agree. He seems to be perfectly willing to go for it when he thinks it'll really put things away. One thing I hope we do from now on, though, is realize that that you absolutely need a yard, you put the ball in the best player on the field's hands. Always. We should never go for it on 4th and 1, in a crucial moment, and take the ball out of Josh's hands. This is largely what inspired this post. While NFL football has evolved into a highly complex game, the basics are still pretty simple. And get even simpler when all you need is 3 feet, and your QB is well over 6ft. For as much as I hate the Pats, I always respected/appreciated Belichick's ability to get out of his own way and see the opportunities to simplify the game. Biggest case in point was their seemingly hardset rule that if it is Down and 1, they run up to the line and quick sneak it on a silent count for an easy pick-up. No reason to not do that EVERY TIME, and without question. Almost completely regardless of the situation. It was just a confidence and understanding that they WILL pick up 3 feet. Waiting to see the Bills get to that point in their confidence and killer instinct. Simplify the game and take the gimmes. 1
elijah Posted September 20, 2021 Posted September 20, 2021 Does McD need the guts to make the call Harbaugh made? I forget the exact scenario last night, but it was something like BAL ball on their own 40, KC with 0 timeouts with about a minute left If Baltimore doesn’t get it, KC needs 5 yards for FG range and 15 for a ‘safe’ field goal. If Baltimore punts KC has about 50 seconds to go ~45-55 yards with no timeouts. This was more of a ballsy call than the right call in my opinion. If Baltimore doesn’t get this first that’s a head scratching play call with the Ravens almost certainly looking at 0-2. I’m all aboard the go for it on 4th down train, but that one was not one of the times I would’ve supported it. 2 1
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