THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Throw the Dolphins on the Pile

[Buffalo716]

47 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Last year early in the season, we were winning at times in spite of the offense. 

Week 1: we won handily against the Jets, because, Jets.

Week 2: we were leading 17-7, and our D let the Dolphins back in it, scoring 10 unanswered points to take the lead before we buckled down and put them away

Week 3: we were leading the Rams nicely 28-3 before our D let the Rams back in it with 29 unanswered points to take the lead before we clawed our way back to a final TD on an ugly drive that featured a facemask penalty by our QB (!!!), among other things.

Week 4: leading the Raiders 17-6 until the Raiders scored 10 unanswered to cut our lead to a single point.  Josh Allen got hurt just before halftime in the game, and people were talking about how the first 4 weeks were a "flash in the pan" and he was back to the "old Allen" until Week 9.

 

Going into the season, we were expecting to see a dominant D as we'd had in 2019 (#2 overall), and were hoping the offense would take enough of a step from 23-24th overall to maybe 10th, enough to give us a shot to go somewhere.  Overall, at that point in the season everyone was "whoaoah Allen's on Fire" but "where TF did our D go?"  Some, @Buffalo716 among others but he sticks out in my mind because he had some very specific things to say about how our secondary coverage had becomepredictable, pointed out that our D had been "solved" to some extent and needed to be revised.  And over the season, the D started to improve until by week 12 and on, it was pretty damned good.

 

Going into this season, we were expecting to see "Allen on Fire Part 2" and instead it looks like we're seeing the 2019 D Reprise but the offense has been "solved", and that's probably true in part.  It sounds simple that if your offense has put down too much film, just do something else, but what that "something else" is can only be guessed until you're actually in real games.  I think Daboll thought our OL would hold up better than it has (Feliciano told him "he'd be fine" against Cam Heyward) and that the solution would feature 4 WR with both Sanders and Beasley running option routes and Diggs running deep (or Sanders and Diggs running option routes and Sanders running deep.  And maybe it will, eventually; it should be remembered that both Diggs and Sanders were on Injury Report and not practicing, through most of training camp and pre-season, which was good for developing the other WR but bad for Allen developing timing with them.  Instead, defenses seem to have figured out how to bracket our option routes and get Allen and his option receivers on different pages, the timing on deep routes is off, and Allen is struggling to have good technique under pressure. 

 

So the offense is a bit of a mess, but I think we'll keep plugging and working on it.  As McDermott and Frazier kept telling us last season, the goal is to play your best football in November and December and then January

Thanks for the bump

 

I don't think our defense was solved but I do think they became too predictable in their play calling which stifles it 

 

They have definitely stopped being as predictable in their coverages

[Buddo]

Allen definitely isn’t firing on all cylinders. I have a few areas of concern there. Not least of which is that I don’t see him scanning the field as well as he was last year.

 

in fairness, both the ‘Fins and the Steelers have good secondaries, so there’s some mitigation there - there haven’t been so many opportunities, with more than one guy open.

 

 I will also question the O-Line play, and the play calling ( more so against the Steelers).

 

Regardless, the job got well done at the end of the day, yesterday, and the Defense is looking very promising - they were simply on fire yesterday.

 

All said and done, onwards and upwards to the WTF are they going to call themselves team 😀

[SoCal Deek]

I didn't look through all the responses but reading Shaw's take it occurs to me that these first two weeks of the season were/are really what would've normally been the last two weeks of the preseason.  Everyone is still feeling things out.  All cylinders are not firing as of yet, but I'm thinking it might just be the 'new normal' in the NFL with a shortened off-season, and a lengthened season. Let's see what happens next Sunday, and the next one.....

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Thanks for the bump

 

I don't think our defense was solved but I do think they became too predictable in their play calling which stifles it 

 

They have definitely stopped being as predictable in their coverages

 

🤷‍♂️  If a defense is predictable, and therefore can be identified/neutralized - I think it may be a semantic issue as to whether it's "solved" or "stifled"

 

I feel the same about our offense right now, I feel we have become too predictable in our routes, and that (coupled with being unable to hold protection long enough for deeper routes in the absence of any doubt that we're passing) is effectively "solved" or "stifled"  Becoming less predictable by effectively running the ball "enough" to exploit dime and 7 DB coverage and get it off the field should help.

[dave mcbride]

3 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Guess what, the Jets are about to "Darnold" Zach Wilson as are the Jax Jaguars with Trevor Lawrence.  What kind of NYJet brain trust was behind the idea to have no veteran QB leaderships for Wilson and start him immediately. 

 

Too much water under that bridge, sometimes a trade is good for both player and team.  The Jets did get some value for Darnold.

I've long said that Darnold was a lot better than the Jets situation made him look. He has real talent. He's a classic example of a bad organization ruining a player's ability to perform at a high level. It didn't seem to ruin his potential, though, and the Panthers are the beneficiaries. 

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

🤷‍♂️  If a defense is predictable, and therefore can be identified/neutralized - I think it may be a semantic issue as to whether it's "solved" or "stifled"

 

I feel the same about our offense right now, I feel we have become too predictable in our routes, and that (coupled with being unable to hold protection long enough for deeper routes in the absence of any doubt that we're passing) is effectively "solved" or "stifled"  Becoming less predictable by effectively running the ball "enough" to exploit dime and 7 DB coverage and get it off the field should help.

Our offense and route combinations are absolutely predictable 

 

The Hallmark of the  NFL is to stay ever changing.. you can't run the same combinations on the same down and distance every week 

 

Coordinators are way too smart and they will figure it out

 

Adapt is the name of the game

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Our offense and route combinations are absolutely predictable 

 

The Hallmark of the  NFL is to stay ever changing.. you can't run the same combinations on the same down and distance every week 

 

Coordinators are way too smart and they will figure it out

 

Adapt is the name of the game

 

So there we have it. 

A strong why it appears our WR are getting less separation, Allen is taking more time to try to find someone open, and the OL can't hold up.

 

It's rather disappointing that Daboll had all summer and didn't come up with new or less predictable combinations.

[GoBills808]

19 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Our offense and route combinations are absolutely predictable 

 

The Hallmark of the  NFL is to stay ever changing.. you can't run the same combinations on the same down and distance every week 

 

Coordinators are way too smart and they will figure it out

 

Adapt is the name of the game

 

If you watch the 2nd quarter INT you realize pretty quickly this is true; @ the 4:30 mark of the video

 

 

 

Diggs' drag behind Davis deeper slant to clear but the MLB barely moves off his spot over the middle and worse, the RDT and RDE don't even bother to rush, they just stay in the throwing lane and put up their hands to force the throw into a bad window. Dolphins 100% knew that look and how to defeat it.

[ctk232]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Credit to that poster, as that is what resonates most with me after seeing Allen’s play the past two weeks. First, what we know about Allen’s mentality is that he isn’t one to rest on his laurels after being handed the contract, media appellations, and general expectations - it’s that he will do anything to meet all of them. In line with the poster’s comparison with 2019 Josh, this would seem to dictate his performance this season thus far in trying to do too much in proving these expectations. Last year his composure made all the difference, and with this season so far it seems like he’s returned to the do it all mentality. The assurance here being it’s all totally correctable and he will address it as the season progresses.

 

Second, to contribute something to this thread - the idea of 2019 Josh returning, the one constantly throwing on his back foot or off-balanced, was also one who looked like he didn’t trust his OL in front of him. Last year we saw a Brady-esque statue form from Allen, and his accuracy improved tremendously. I need to dig into the OL metrics, but an armchair’s perspective has me seeing Allen distrusting his OL like that of 2019 - and it’s not entirely unwarranted. Dawkins, Feliciano, and Williams have all regressed, and Ingram and Watt made a considerable impression in week one. I hope this changes too as we go forward, but right now it’s my biggest concern as OL play impacts how everyone else executes and performs. I guess we’ll see against a stout WFT front this week.

Edited September 20, 2021 by ctk232

[clayboy54]

13 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So there we have it. 

A strong why it appears our WR are getting less separation, Allen is taking more time to try to find someone open, and the OL can't hold up.

 

It's rather disappointing that Daboll had all summer and didn't come up with new or less predictable combinations.

In the postgame interviews, it was said that Daboll was installing new plays and blocking schemes on Saturday. This is what you're asking for, albeit a little late. It looks like although sloppy, they worked. It seems obvious that they're working on it and they'll eventually find the right combination.

 

After all, you never know if what you've got will work until it either does or doesn't on Sundays. If it doesn't you just have to make some changes.

[Shaw66]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I feel the same about our offense right now, I feel we have become too predictable in our routes, and that (coupled with being unable to hold protection long enough for deeper routes in the absence of any doubt that we're passing) is effectively "solved" or "stifled"  Becoming less predictable by effectively running the ball "enough" to exploit dime and 7 DB coverage and get it off the field should help.

Far be it from me to explain how he does it, but lt seems that part of Andy Reid's continuing success is that every week he layers on a few brand new wrinkles.   Different motions, a few different plays.  And I think he then adjusts their existing scheme to run off those motions.  The effect is that he freezes one or a few defenders for a split second, and that allows receivers running the same routes they ran last week to get separation.   The defender is ready for that route, the defense has prepared for it, but the new looks give the receivers the momentary edge they need. 

 

Every week, it's some new looks, but they aren't overhauling the offense every week.   It's simple but detailed creativity to get an edge. 

 

When your offense is running three or four new plays, and disguising 15 old plays to look like the new plays, the defense is put back on their heals, and then here comes the steamroller. 

 

I don't see with the Bills, at least not yet.   

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

If you watch the 2nd quarter INT you realize pretty quickly this is true; @ the 4:30 mark of the video

 

 

 

Diggs' drag behind Davis deeper slant to clear but the MLB barely moves off his spot over the middle and worse, the RDT and RDE don't even bother to rush, they just stay in the throwing lane and put up their hands to force the throw into a bad window. Dolphins 100% knew that look and how to defeat it.

 

You mean this:

 

Geesh, plenty of blame to go around there.

 

Allen appears to be staring down Diggs all the way.  Whether or not they knew what was coming earlier, they certainly do at this point.  He could at least be glancing at Beasley to the bottom L, although Beasley would be lucky to get 4 yards on it.  Feliciano and Dawkins have been beaten like drums, meaning there would be no time for a deeper route or more separation to develop with Davis.   And Davis is not doing as much as he could to "sell" his route as a realistic option - he slows up before Allen throws and I don't believe he thinks the ball is coming his way.

 

But yeah, the Dolphins are 100% like "we've seen this movie before and we know how the Bills want it to end"

[Buffalo716]

21 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So there we have it. 

A strong why it appears our WR are getting less separation, Allen is taking more time to try to find someone open, and the OL can't hold up.

 

It's rather disappointing that Daboll had all summer and didn't come up with new or less predictable combinations.

He may have.. he may be not trying to put it all on film because it's a long season

 

But the predictability in the route combinations has to change up 

 

He runs a combo called INC (In + curl ) 

 

Digs and Beasley are a great one two for that concept... Problem is on third and five... Coordinators know this concept comes a lot 

 

Maybe.. instead of the in for diggs and curl for Beasley.. let diggs take the top off... And run Beasley on an out behind it

 

Just have to switch route combinations up sometimes

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said:

He may have.. he may be not trying to put it all on film because it's a long season

 

But the predictability in the route combinations has to change up 

 

He runs a combo called INC (In + curl ) 

 

Digs and Beasley are a great one two for that concept... Problem is on third and five... Coordinators know this concept comes a lot 

 

Maybe.. instead of the in for diggs and curl for Beasley.. let diggs take the top off... And run Beasley on an out behind it

 

Just have to switch route combinations up sometimes

 

So this is saying that we didn't take advantage of deep enough self-scouting over the summer - OR that we self-scouted, but thought we execute well enough to make it work even if they know it's coming.

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

You mean this:

 

Geesh, plenty of blame to go around there.

 

Allen appears to be staring down Diggs all the way.  Whether or not they knew what was coming earlier, they certainly do at this point.  He could at least be glancing at Beasley to the bottom L, although Beasley would be lucky to get 4 yards on it.  Feliciano and Dawkins have been beaten like drums, meaning there would be no time for a deeper route or more separation to develop with Davis.   And Davis is not doing as much as he could to "sell" his route as a realistic option - he slows up before Allen throws and I don't believe he thinks the ball is coming his way.

 

But yeah, the Dolphins are 100% like "we've seen this movie before and we know how the Bills want it to end"

Yep but re: Davis- that’s a cover1 look i believe so there’s single high safety over the top. He’s not an option like you say. 
 

very vanilla play design and too similar to what we ran last year

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

So this is saying that we didn't take advantage of deep enough self-scouting over the summer - OR that we self-scouted, but thought we execute well enough to make it work even if they know it's coming.

More inclined to think that , they think they're scheme works

 

And that if they execute it well enough it can't be stopped

 

Problem is defensive coordinators are getting paid to stop them

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

More inclined to think that , they think they're scheme works

 

And that if they execute it well enough it can't be stopped

 

Problem is defensive coordinators are getting paid to stop them

This is exactly right.  I've mentioned before that I haven't been a big Daboll fan, and I was a little perplexed that some people thought he was the next sure-fire head coaching candidate.  

 

To date, I'd say Daboll is gimmicky, but not creative in layering on wrinkle after wrinkle.  Reid forces you to defend last season's offense, with a new layer every game.  It just gets more and more complicated.   Bills have a good base, but I don't think we're seeing the additional layers of complication.  

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Buffalo716 said:

Our offense and route combinations are absolutely predictable 

 

The Hallmark of the  NFL is to stay ever changing.. you can't run the same combinations on the same down and distance every week 

 

Coordinators are way too smart and they will figure it out

 

Adapt is the name of the game

 

So true....its not even a season to season adjustment anymore. Each week you gotta switch it up. Tape exists and whatever worked week 2 won't work against Washington. We're all hoping JA works out this wierd funk and the D stays hot. As Shaw says keep putting W's on the pile and don't get to high on wins or too low on loses. 

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

So true....its not even a season to season adjustment anymore. Each week you gotta switch it up. Tape exists and whatever worked week 2 won't work against Washington. We're all hoping JA works out this wierd funk and the D stays hot. As Shaw says keep putting W's on the pile and don't get to high on wins or too low on loses. 

So how about Daboll just watches the Chiefs tape from the week before and runs THOSE plays? That’d save a lot of time and aggravation. Someone buy OBD a Directv subscription!

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

So how about Daboll just watches the Chiefs tape from the week before and runs THOSE plays? That’d save a lot of time and aggravation. Someone buy OBD a Directv subscription!

Personnel. Specifically Kelce