Picking up Edmunds Option a Rare Beane Mistake

[nedboy7]

Currently we have the #3 defense in the league. Yes our MLB is not a star on a loaded D. Who cares. Talking about trading him is just stupid. 
 

Edited September 29, 2021 by nedboy7

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:

 
 

So did Milano, Williams, and Mongo - yet all took below market value to come back - no reason to believe Edmunds who seems to like this staff and this FO can’t find a manageable middle ground - I would assume someplace around his 5th year option is the sweet spot.

 

Based upon your above contract I would not think he would get signed, but if he wants an AAV of 12-14 million over 4 years in an extension plus the 5th year - you could easily do:

 

2022 - 25 M signing bonus + 3 million salary = 8 M Cap (savings of almost 5 million next year)

2023 - 5M salary = 10 M Cap (can covert to roster bonus to spread out)

New TV money hits

2024 - 8 M Salary = 13 million Cap 

2025 - 8 M Salary = 13 million cap

2026 - 11 M Salary = 16 million cap

 

That would be a 4 year 48 million extension plus the 12 million for the 5th year option - essentially right in the 12 million a year range they are willing to pay on the option.  You can also massage the numbers up or down - especially later and get more savings upfront.  You can also use roster bonuses and work out bonuses to spread out more.  
 

Beane could also break the signing bonus up to make the savings year 1 and 2 even more with both still guaranteed.  Allowing them to retain more players.

 

You gave him a 4 year 70 million extension or about 17.5 million per season.  I think that is higher than they are willing to go.  
 

I could even see meeting in the middle of ours and going up to 55 million and add ~2 - million more to the last 3 years making it 13.7 AAV on the extension.

 

There are a ton of options some palatable and some less so.  The question becomes where do they slot him - versus where does he slot himself.
 

 

The contract was based on the estimates by @GunnerBill

Mostly I was trying to figure out what a contract would look like given the parameters he discussed.  I was not advocating giving Edmunds that deal.

 

I didn’t think Milano would take the discount he did to stay, so you never know.  Maybe Edmunds will take a big discount too, but I don’t think we can bank on that.  I don’t think we have to split hairs here though.  If the Bills retain Edmunds beyond next season, then his contract is going to be a big one.  Bigger than Milano’s 4 year, $41.5M deal for sure.  I don’t think he warrants that, so I’d rather they move on and use the money more wisely.

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I know this is a popular excuse for Edmunds not getting extended.

 

But the two contracts are no more dependent on each other than any of the other signings they made this offseason..........or any more limiting than in the consecutive transactions of signing Tre White and Dion Dawkins long term while also adding Stefon Diggs long term contract. 

 

Allen was signing his deal in 2021........and they've had a good idea where they would have to be on Allen's deal since at least the end of last season........more likely since last fall.

 

Agreeing to the specifics was just a matter of time.

 

If people think Beane/Overdorf were working day and night for 5 months to get Allen's deal done or that the STRUCTURAL variations of the contract were preventing them from drawing up the parameters of an Edmunds contract they are just wrong.             

 

Edmunds has not been extended because he's not forced the issue with his play..............he's still in the wait-and-see category. 

 

 

 

Listening again to Beane’s press conference after signing Josh - he specifically mentions needing to get the Allen deal done so they would know what funds they had left and when to allow them to sign or re-sign other players that they have drafted and developed.
 

I think the 2 contracts are very much dependent on each other.  I agree they were not working solely on Josh’s contract, but they were working on the term and bonuses - so they know when they have money and when they don’t.  Beane even mentioned he and Josh had a conversation before he could even sign as to ideas they wanted and it still took 6 months to find the common ground and almost had to go until next off season.

 

Once they got the terms and length in place - they know exactly how much they have to work out the extension for Edmunds if they want.  They were never signing Edmunds before the Allen deal was done - they needed to ensure they had maximum flexibility for Allen’s deal.  That was always priority #1.

 

You say Edmunds has not been extended because of his play, but I guess what would have been the rush in trying to sign him before Josh.  I don’t think you are right - I think there was no needed rush to sign Edmunds because he was under contract this year at a very reasonable rate - that the Bills really had no reason to change.  
 

Therefore the best extension for Edmunds would be later this year or in the off season before the 5th year option kicks in.  Then they get the cheap year this year and can adjust his salary down next year and use the savings to sign others.

 

We will see where it goes - I just don’t see any logic to your point of well if they didn’t sign him already with 2 years left - they must not think he is worth it.  Pretty sure they just re-signed Williams, Mongo, and Milano just days before hitting the market, but based on your logic - they didn’t really want them back.

[BADOLBILZ]

30 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Listening again to Beane’s press conference after signing Josh - he specifically mentions needing to get the Allen deal done so they would know what funds they had left and when to allow them to sign or re-sign other players that they have drafted and developed.
 

I I just don’t see any logic to your point of well if they didn’t sign him already with 2 years left - they must not think he is worth it.  Pretty sure they just re-signed Williams, Mongo, and Milano just days before hitting the market, but based on your logic - they didn’t really want them back.

 

1. Standard negotiation talk.   "We need to get your deal done now so we can pay your teammates."    The structure of Josh Allen's deal wasn't going to vary so much that it would have ANY impact on whether they signed Edmunds or not.    

 

2. You don't see any logic in that?  So if Edmunds were a dominating, first team All Pro last season you don't think they would have worked out an extension this offseason?

 

Tre White got his deal done after year 3.........not because they had cap space to burn........because he was a proven All Pro.

 

There was no question about Tre White......his worth was established as elite.

 

Josh Allen?.......his worth was also established as elite.  

 

Easy decisions to extend immediately after season 3.

 

Edmunds worth is not nearly as in focus as that.........what's illogical is to claim that it is.

 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Do you mean cash, salary, or cap hit?  For 2022 he’s currently listed as 10th highest cap hit for ILB on spotrac. Do we need to lower hit if he is 10th in terms of cap?  
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2022/cap-hit/inside-linebacker/

 

They are the same thing for the purposes of 2022. It isn't about where he ranks among linebackers for 2022 it is about the makeup of the Bills cap. I cannot see him playing in Buffalo on the option. I think likely they extend him to reduce the 2022 hit. 

7 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I wanted to circle back and look at this more closely in case I missed something.  Based on your contract parameters I get something this:
2022: $20M SB + $3M salary, cap hit of $7M

2023: $5M salary, $9M cap hit

2024: $16M salary, $20M cap hit

2025: $18M salary, $22M cap hit

2026: $20M salary, $24M cap hit

 

Effectively a minimum 3 year, $44M deal due to some salary guarantees carrying into year 3. There’s just a lot better ways to spend that cap space IMO.  I just don’t think Edmunds is worth close to that. 

 

Something in that range, yes. You'd have the signing bonus left as dead cap after year 3 but otherwise he'd then be cuttable or the Bills would have the leverage for a restructure  

[GunnerBill]

5 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

The contract was based on the estimates by @GunnerBill

Mostly I was trying to figure out what a contract would look like given the parameters he discussed.  I was not advocating giving Edmunds that deal.

 

 

 

And just to be clear I didn't make the AAV number up from thin air it is the Spotrac projection: $14-16.5m. 

 

That feels about right to me too. He is going to want slotting in as the 5th or 6th best paid inside backer.

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

1. Standard negotiation talk.   "We need to get your deal done now so we can pay your teammates."    The structure of Josh Allen's deal wasn't going to vary so much that it would have ANY impact on whether they signed Edmunds or not.    

 

2. You don't see any logic in that?  So if Edmunds were a dominating, first team All Pro last season you don't think they would have worked out an extension this offseason?

 

Tre White got his deal done after year 3.........not because they had cap space to burn........because he was a proven All Pro.

 

There was no question about Tre White......his worth was established as elite.

 

Josh Allen?.......his worth was also established as elite.  

 

Easy decisions to extend immediately after season 3.

 

Edmunds worth is not nearly as in focus as that.........what's illogical is to claim that it is.

 

 

Where I disagree is that without having Joshes contract done - you are not sure of the final length you are getting - nor the years he is willing to be lower with salary and years he is higher in salary.  His contract is very non-standard in both length and structure.  Beane even said they had a lot of give and take on structure for things Josh wanted versus things the Bills wanted.

 

If you look at his contract structure - they very directly had years with more salary and years with less salary and Beane in his post signing contest specifically mentioned this as a way to re-sign other players that they draft and develop.  One of the years that is lower is next year - a decrease of 8-10 million from his 5th year option number.  
 

I think that gives Beane the flexibility to decide can I get an Edmunds deal done at what I want and if not I now have the money to let him play on that 5th year option and move on if needed. 
 

You talk about Tre and Josh as being signed because they are elite and I think you can even throw Dawkins in there, but this year (and next year) the cap is still impacted by the COVID situation and Beane had less to work with than his original planning called for.  He mentioned in interviews he had been planning and structuring contracts knowing he had 2 1st round picks and one being the QB coming up this off season.  I think that plays very much into the decision making.

 

I think if Edmunds was a dominating All-Pro - I still think The Allen deal gets done first and they are in the same boat.  That was the #1 priority that had to happen.  Where things change to me is if he was on Josh’s or Tre’s level would be that Milano does not get re-signed. They then use part of his money to boost Edmunds deal.  
 

I think they have a slotted value for Edmunds right now that they want - SPOTRAC mentions 14-16 million AAV and in interviews with the creator of SPOTRAC- he has specifically mentioned Beane has routinely come in with AAV’s 1-2 million below his projections.  My guess is that slots him in with an AAV very close to his 5th year option - so they had no reason to rush the deal.  
 

We will see, but I still think they are going to find a way to get an extension done that will free up some additional cap space and allow them to retain at least 1 or 2 additional players next year - with a look at Taron Johnson being the 1st target.  If they don’t get the extension done - then I think that puts his future in doubt here and probably costs up at least I additional re-sign.

 

 

 

 

 

[Real McClappy]

14 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

Currently we have the #3 defense in the league. Yes our MLB is not a star on a loaded D. Who cares. Talking about trading him is just stupid. 
 

Just a convo, all this should take place after playing KC and the Titans after week 6 IMO. The first 4 weeks we have played a QB whom needs to retire and 3 back-ups in the league. One would expect your 1st rd. MLB to feast in 1 or 2 of those games.

I'm curious to see how Edmunds performs against Mahomes and Tannehill/Henry before I make my final assesment at this phase. 

 

This entire thread reminds me of the old Tyrod days with half the forum split down the line and trying to twist and turn statistics to support opinions on that player. Stats are fun and legit to a point, I prefer to use my trained eyes.

 

To me this is the make or break year for Edmunds. I don't think he has lived up to his draft position thus far but truly want him to take off big time. I feel he is one of the big chess board pieces to a deep, deep playoff run and possible SB victory. 

Edited September 29, 2021 by Real McNasty

[GunnerBill]

9 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I wanted to circle back and look at this more closely in case I missed something.  Based on your contract parameters I get something this:
2022: $20M SB + $3M salary, cap hit of $7M

2023: $5M salary, $9M cap hit

2024: $16M salary, $20M cap hit

2025: $18M salary, $22M cap hit

2026: $20M salary, $24M cap hit

 

Now I have the numbers I worked my calculation out on in front of me here is how I had it breaking down:

 

5 years, $82m, $35m guaranteed - that puts him 4th in total value, 5th in AAV, 3rd in fully guaranteed money among off the ball linebackers. 

 

$20m signing bonus amortised over the length of the contract. Structure looks basically like this:
 

Year	Amortised Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	Non-guaranteed Salary	Total Cap Hit	Dead Money (based on post season cut)
2022	$4m	$4m	-	$8m	$27m
2023	$4m	$7m	-	$11m	$16m
2024	$4m	$4m	$7m	$15m	$8m
2025	$4m	-	$19m	$23m	$4m
2026	$4m	-	$21m	$25m	UFA

 

If you could get Tremaine to agree to a deal like that (maybe with an additional clause that his entire 2024 salary guarantees on the third day of the league year) it is essentially putting $24m into his pocket next season rather than $12.7m and is all but guaranteeing him $42m over 3 years - which comes out at the bottom end of this AAV range as $14m. Then if you want to keep him beyond 2024 the Bills have a lot of leverage because he has very little guaranteed money left so you turn some of that non-guaranteed money into restructure bonus, spread that out, add real years or dummy years, but at that point you are going to need to start paying him in the high teens, low 20s per year. But by then who knows where the cap will be?

 

This is all speculation and spitballing but it is fun to imagine the games Beane and Meganck are going to be playing with this and I don't think the above is completely unrealistic. Maybe Edmunds side would want you to bring another million or two forward from years 4 and 5 into years 2 and 3... but structure wise it basically works. 

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Where I disagree is that without having Joshes contract done - you are not sure of the final length you are getting - nor the years he is willing to be lower with salary and years he is higher in salary.  His contract is very non-standard in both length and structure.  Beane even said they had a lot of give and take on structure for things Josh wanted versus things the Bills wanted.

 

If you look at his contract structure - they very directly had years with more salary and years with less salary and Beane in his post signing contest specifically mentioned this as a way to re-sign other players that they draft and develop.  One of the years that is lower is next year - a decrease of 8-10 million from his 5th year option number.  
 

I think that gives Beane the flexibility to decide can I get an Edmunds deal done at what I want and if not I now have the money to let him play on that 5th year option and move on if needed. 
 

You talk about Tre and Josh as being signed because they are elite and I think you can even throw Dawkins in there, but this year (and next year) the cap is still impacted by the COVID situation and Beane had less to work with than his original planning called for.  He mentioned in interviews he had been planning and structuring contracts knowing he had 2 1st round picks and one being the QB coming up this off season.  I think that plays very much into the decision making.

 

I think if Edmunds was a dominating All-Pro - I still think The Allen deal gets done first and they are in the same boat.  That was the #1 priority that had to happen.  Where things change to me is if he was on Josh’s or Tre’s level would be that Milano does not get re-signed. They then use part of his money to boost Edmunds deal.  
 

I think they have a slotted value for Edmunds right now that they want - SPOTRAC mentions 14-16 million AAV and in interviews with the creator of SPOTRAC- he has specifically mentioned Beane has routinely come in with AAV’s 1-2 million below his projections.  My guess is that slots him in with an AAV very close to his 5th year option - so they had no reason to rush the deal.  
 

We will see, but I still think they are going to find a way to get an extension done that will free up some additional cap space and allow them to retain at least 1 or 2 additional players next year - with a look at Taron Johnson being the 1st target.  If they don’t get the extension done - then I think that puts his future in doubt here and probably costs up at least I additional re-sign.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You got the highlighted right.

 

Extending Milano was a sign that they didn't feel Edmunds was an elite player who they HAD to retain like Tre or Josh.

 

And on the other side of the equation.........if Edmunds had played at that elite level and didn't get treated like Tre or Josh his representation probably would have advised him to hold out or not practice with the team like TJ Watt just did.

 

At this point I think both parties know that they want to see more..........the Bills want more impact from Edmunds and his representation is going to want more than 75% of what Darius Leonard signed for.

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Now I have the numbers I worked my calculation out on in front of me here is how I had it breaking down:

 

5 years, $82m, $35m guaranteed - that puts him 4th in total value, 5th in AAV, 3rd in fully guaranteed money among off the ball linebackers. 

 

$20m signing bonus amortised over the length of the contract. Structure looks basically like this:
 

Year	Amortised Bonus	Guaranteed Salary	Non-guaranteed Salary	Total Cap Hit	Dead Money (based on post season cut)
2022	$4m	$4m	-	$8m	$27m
2023	$4m	$7m	-	$11m	$16m
2024	$4m	$4m	$7m	$15m	$8m
2025	$4m	-	$19m	$23m	$4m
2026	$4m	-	$21m	$25m	UFA

 

If you could get Tremaine to agree to a deal like that (maybe with an additional clause that his entire 2024 salary guarantees on the third day of the league year) it is essentially putting $24m into his pocket next season rather than $12.7m and is all but guaranteeing him $42m over 3 years - which comes out at the bottom end of this AAV range as $14m. Then if you want to keep him beyond 2024 the Bills have a lot of leverage because he has very little guaranteed money left so you turn some of that non-guaranteed money into restructure bonus, spread that out, add real years or dummy years, but at that point you are going to need to start paying him in the high teens, low 20s per year. But by then who knows where the cap will be?

 

This is all speculation and spitballing but it is fun to imagine the games Beane and Meganck are going to be playing with this and I don't think the above is completely unrealistic. Maybe Edmunds side would want you to bring another million or two forward from years 4 and 5 into years 2 and 3... but structure wise it basically works. 

 

Thanks Gunner for breaking down how contracts like this actually work out.  I believe if/when Edmunds is signed this is the structure and your

overall numbers are probably really close.

 

Now if you use this type of structure (albeit to a lesser degree and terms) in signing Taron Johnson I have no fear that they can't get both

done next year.  Too often poster look at the AAV vs current Cap and come to wild speculations.

 

Side Note:  If Andre Smith is as capable as some of us hope Klein very much could be a cut and another LB taken in the mid round draft next year.

Same holds true about Dodson staying who is an ERFA next year who is backing up Edmunds on the depth chart.

 

I say all this with the expectations that Edmunds can incrementally keep improving.

[GunnerBill]

58 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Thanks Gunner for breaking down how contracts like this actually work out.  I believe if/when Edmunds is signed this is the structure and your

overall numbers are probably really close.

 

Now if you use this type of structure (albeit to a lesser degree and terms) in signing Taron Johnson I have no fear that they can't get both

done next year.  Too often poster look at the AAV vs current Cap and come to wild speculations.

 

Side Note:  If Andre Smith is as capable as some of us hope Klein very much could be a cut and another LB taken in the mid round draft next year.

Same holds true about Dodson staying who is an ERFA next year who is backing up Edmunds on the depth chart.

 

I say all this with the expectations that Edmunds can incrementally keep improving.

 

Klein is 100% gone. $400k in dead cap vs $5.6m to keep him. But what is equally interesting is as this team moves forwards there will not be too many more AJ Kleins and Josh Normans and Emmanuel Sanders. That middle class if contract earning between $5m and $7m. As more of the money gets tied up at the top end of the roster. That is the price you pay for keeping your top guys and it is why you have to be extra good at finding the Andre Smiths and the Tyrel Dodsons and the Dane Jacksons and the Ike Boettgers. Guys who are either 7th rounders or UDFAs who can be functional depth players for your football team and you have to keep finding the odd early day 3 guy like a Matt Milano, Taron Johnson and Gabriel Davis who can be difference makers on the field. You have seen that with the Chiefs in recent years as they have paid their guys their depth has suffered.

Edited September 29, 2021 by GunnerBill

[ColoradoBills]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Klein is 100% gone. $400k in dead cap vs $5.6m to keep him. But what is equally interesting is as this team moves forwards there will not be too many more AJ Kleins and Josh Normans and Emmanuel Sanders. That middle class if contract earning between $5m and $7m. As more of the money gets tied up at the top end of the roster. That is the price you pay for keeping your top guys and it is why you have to be extra good at finding the Andre Smiths and the Tyrel Dodsons and the Dane Jacksons and the Ike Boettgers. Guys who are either 7th rounders or UDFAs who can be functional depth players for your football team and you have to keep finding the odd early day 3 guy like a Matt Milano, Taron Johnson and Gabriel Davis who can be difference makers on the field. You have seen that with the Chiefs in recent years as they have paid their guys their depth has suffered.

 

Exactly.  I also think Beane is set up pretty good to have a handle on that for the immediate future.  It will be signing a few of his own FAs and get the

bulk of the depth and hopeful starters in the Draft and UDFA.  I get a feeling a lot of fans will be sad when he doesn't sign a lot of market FAs.

[Billy Zabka]

Although it was lowly Jets, didnt miss Edmunds out there at all today.  Even without Lotulelei out there occupying blockers NFL journeyman.Klein looked every bit as good as Edmunds. In fact I think Klein had more TFL's today than Edmunds has his whole career.

Edited November 14, 2021 by Billy Zabka

[Max Fischer]

21 minutes ago, Billy Zabka said:

Although it was lowly Jets, didnt miss Edmunds out there at all today.  Even without Lotulelei out there occupying blockers NFL journeyman.Klein looked every bit as good as Edmunds. In fact I think Klein had more TFL's today than Edmunds has His whole career.

 

If by now you don't know what Edmunds brings on every play there's little point to explain it. 

Edited November 15, 2021 by Max Fischer

[MJS]

33 minutes ago, Buffalo619 said:

Ditch Edmunds. Extend Klein. 

Klein is a fine player, but we don't get to play the Jets every week.

[Billy Zabka]

17 minutes ago, Max Fischer said:

 

If by now you don't know what Edmunds brings on every play there's little point to explain it. 

I know exactly what I get with Edmunds...mediocrity, indecision, and lack of big play ability.  Great guy, great athlete, average MLB.

[Max Fischer]

Just now, Buffalo619 said:

I agree. Good post Billy. He’s average at best. 

 

Y’all must be trolls. If not, we will enjoy when TE is again a pro bowler, is extended, and you lose your minds. 

[Sugar High JA17]

This Smart-Throb will get it right

[Eastport bills]

It's a good thing you don't make personnel decisions. Edmunds is a freakish athlete that makes plays sideline to sideline. Speed, length and 22 years old. He is our QB on defense and it's the top rated defense in football. Your problem with him is his long hair?