Picking up Edmunds Option a Rare Beane Mistake

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

 

Ah yeah, this makes much more sense. I can only see this happening if they're confident they can get a similar coverage LB in the draft.

 

Yeah, and honestly if there is a LB they see in the draft they could land that they covet, it might influence their decision on Edmunds, especially if Edmunds play hasn't convinced them they must keep him.  

[BarleyNY]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are not releasing him. The 5th year is fully guaranteed. He is either traded or extended IMO and I lean strongly towards them doing the latter.

I can’t imagine a trade works out.  No one will give up much of anything for a player on their fifth year option.  They’d need to negotiate a long term deal first, but that’s a tough road to go down.  We would have to tell Edmunds that we want to trade him, find a trade partner and hope his agent can negotiate an extension with them.  Or, if we can’t find a trade partner, we would wind up with a MLB who knows we were trying to trade him on a one year $12.7M contract.  That would likely spur the relationship.  There is just too much downside risk involved in that path.

 

This is why I didn’t think we should’ve picked up the option.  He plays out his fifth year option or we compound things and pay him even more to stick around a few more seasons.  By picking up the option we set the floor for his next Bills contract and he’s just not worth that kind of money.

Edited September 28, 2021 by BarleyNY

[Coach Tuesday]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I can’t imagine a trade works out.  No one will give up much of anything for a player on their fifth year option.  They’d need to negotiate a long term deal first, but that’s a tough road to go down.  We would have to tell Edmunds that we want to trade him, find a trade partner and hope his agent can negotiate an extension with him.  Or if we can’t find a trade partner we would wind up with a MLB who knows we were trying to trade him on a one year $12.7M contract.  There is just too much downside risk involved in that.

 

This is why I didn’t think we should’ve picked up the option.  He plays out his fifth year option or we compound things and pay him even more to stick around a few more seasons.  By picking up the option we set the floor for his contract here and he’s just not worth that kind of money.

Didn’t the Texans trade for Tunsil after his fifth year option was picked up?

[BarleyNY]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Didn’t the Texans trade for Tunsil after his fifth year option was picked up?

Unfortunately Bill O’Brien is not running an NFL franchise into the ground at this time so we can’t take advantage of his stupidity. 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I can’t imagine a trade works out.  No one will give up much of anything for a player on their fifth year option.  They’d need to negotiate a long term deal first, but that’s a tough road to go down.  We would have to tell Edmunds that we want to trade him, find a trade partner and hope his agent can negotiate an extension with them.  Or, if we can’t find a trade partner, we would wind up with a MLB who knows we were trying to trade him on a one year $12.7M contract.  That would likely spur the relationship.  There is just too much downside risk involved in that path.

 

This is why I didn’t think we should’ve picked up the option.  He plays out his fifth year option or we compound things and pay him even more to stick around a few more seasons.  By picking up the option we set the floor for his next Bills contract and he’s just not worth that kind of money.

 

I just see very little chance he plays on $12.7m. It feels highly unlikely to me that the Bills are willing to drop that much on a guy they are about to part from. So if they decide he is done after next year they will try and trade him IMO (agree getting a deal together is hard to do). 

 

Which is why I think far more likely they extend him and there is a way to do it (as I set out before) where you can slot him in as the 5th best paid off the ball 'backer in the NFL with a good yearly average and a good chunk of new guaranteed money and leave the Bills flexibility after the third year of the deal. That is the kind of thing I am expecting. Numbers that look like the Bills are committing long term but that in reality equate to a 2 year extension onto his current deal with manageable cap hits.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

0% chance he will be released...the only way Edmunds isn't in Buffalo next season as @GunnerBill alluded to if he doesnt get his extension this offseason is by trade.  Edmunds will have plenty of suitors who will look to trade for him and Beane will get value back before outright cutting him.  

 

And quite frankly, he could easily get a 2nd for him right now, and maybe even more like multiple picks or even a first.  He will have multiple suitors bidding on him.  Doesn't matter what people on this board think, he has value across the league as a young 2 time pro bowl MLB who is the captain of his defense.  Beane would shop him saying we can't afford to retain him next year and easily get good value in a trade for him if he decides Edmunds is not in our future plans.  

 

And I kind of agree with GunnerBill on this that if Beane has decided to NOT extend him as soon as this season ends, I think Beane makes a move to trade him this offseason rather than risk losing him for nothing given he will get some good value for him.  Now its possible before now and end of the season Edmunds could lower his value if he has a rough year, but today, easily get a 2nd and possibly more for him.   

 

The only point I disagree with is the compensation. I can't think of a single off the ball linebacker who has ever been traded for a 2nd round pick. Two pro bowl linebackers have been traded within the last year in Kwon Alexander and Joe Schobert - both top 15 type linebackers in the league and they fetched a 5th and a 6th respectively. Neither is as young or naturally gifted as Edmunds, I get that... but they are two proven, highly productive players. I think the best you are getting for Edmunds is a 3rd. You might get a third and something throw away.... a future 6th or a 7th.... but I don't think there is any chance you get a 2nd round pick. That market just doesn't exist for the position.

 

EDIT: just to make clear for anyone reading only this post... I still think a trade is an unlikely scenario. The most likely scenario by far is he is extended IMO. 

Edited September 28, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Rochesterfan]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just see very little chance he plays on $12.7m. It feels highly unlikely to me that the Bills are willing to drop that much on a guy they are about to part from. So if they decide he is done after next year they will try and trade him IMO (agree getting a deal together is hard to do). 

 

Which is why I think far more likely they extend him and there is a way to do it (as I set out before) where you can slot him in as the 5th best paid off the ball 'backer in the NFL with a good yearly average and a good chunk of new guaranteed money and leave the Bills flexibility after the third year of the deal. That is the kind of thing I am expecting. Numbers that look like the Bills are committing long term but that in reality equate to a 2 year extension onto his current deal with manageable cap hits.

 

I agree and I think it highly likely that the FO likes him enough to want to get this done and he likes playing for this staff enough to want to make it work.

 

It seems like an easy no brainer to slot him in and save money next year by having signing and roster bonuses to provide some flexibility and keep the core together.  The money savings may also allow the Bills to work on retaining another DB - like getting a deal done with Johnson if things continue this year.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The only point I disagree with is the compensation. I can't think of a single off the ball linebacker who has ever been traded for a 2nd round pick. Two pro bowl linebackers have been traded within the last year in Kwon Alexander and Joe Schobert - both top 15 type linebackers in the league and they fetched a 5th and a 6th respectively. Neither is as young or naturally gifted as Edmunds, I get that... but they are two proven, highly productive players. I think the best you are getting for Edmunds is a 3rd. You might get a third and something throw away.... a future 6th or a 7th.... but I don't think there is any chance you get a 2nd round pick. That market just doesn't exist for the position.

 

EDIT: just to make clear for anyone reading only this post... I still think a trade is an unlikely scenario. The most likely scenario by far is he is extended IMO. 

 

I respectively disagree.  When Kwon got traded he was not considered the same player he was considered we has signed to a FA contract.  I am personally supremely confident that Edmunds will have significantly higher trade value than either Kwon did or Schobert.  Edmunds is built in a way that DC's dream of, and with his young age and 2 Pro Bowls in his first 3 years, he will have a significantly higher trade value and I do really think he gets a 2nd right now if Beane were to look to trade him.  In a passing league, have a guy his size who can defend the pass and roam side line to side line is something that is coveted and not easily found.  

 

And with young he was he entered the league, and how raw he was...they will see him as someone who may not even reached his potential yet.  And I would counter argue why you don't see a market is because you don't see someone like him traded very often because most teams hold onto them until they are resigned or leave in FA.  

 

But you do see teams trade up in drafts giving up 2nd round picks, further first round picks, multiple draft picks etc to land LB's they covet.  And yes I get in those draft trade ups they get the LB on a rookie deal for 4 to 5 years where Edmunds will be do a new contract a year later, but I am just pointing out that trades with high value draft picks have happened this way proving there is a trade market.

 

So for me, the trade value is there for Edmunds IMHO if Beane were to look to make the trade today.  Like I said earlier, by seasons end that could change if he battles injuries again, his play lags, or both...but today, I am quite confident he would have multiple suitors where he could get at least a 2nd for him.  

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Rochesterfan said:

They were never signing Edmunds before that deal got done because they needed to know what the flexibility surrounding Allen’s cap number was going to do.  

 

 

I know this is a popular excuse for Edmunds not getting extended.

 

But the two contracts are no more dependent on each other than any of the other signings they made this offseason..........or any more limiting than in the consecutive transactions of signing Tre White and Dion Dawkins long term while also adding Stefon Diggs long term contract. 

 

Allen was signing his deal in 2021........and they've had a good idea where they would have to be on Allen's deal since at least the end of last season........more likely since last fall.

 

Agreeing to the specifics was just a matter of time.

 

If people think Beane/Overdorf were working day and night for 5 months to get Allen's deal done or that the STRUCTURAL variations of the contract were preventing them from drawing up the parameters of an Edmunds contract they are just wrong.             

 

Edmunds has not been extended because he's not forced the issue with his play..............he's still in the wait-and-see category. 

 

 

Edited September 28, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[GunnerBill]

44 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I respectively disagree.  When Kwon got traded he was not considered the same player he was considered we has signed to a FA contract.  I am personally supremely confident that Edmunds will have significantly higher trade value than either Kwon did or Schobert.  Edmunds is built in a way that DC's dream of, and with his young age and 2 Pro Bowls in his first 3 years, he will have a significantly higher trade value and I do really think he gets a 2nd right now if Beane were to look to trade him.  In a passing league, have a guy his size who can defend the pass and roam side line to side line is something that is coveted and not easily found.  

 

And with young he was he entered the league, and how raw he was...they will see him as someone who may not even reached his potential yet.  And I would counter argue why you don't see a market is because you don't see someone like him traded very often because most teams hold onto them until they are resigned or leave in FA.  

 

But you do see teams trade up in drafts giving up 2nd round picks, further first round picks, multiple draft picks etc to land LB's they covet.  And yes I get in those draft trade ups they get the LB on a rookie deal for 4 to 5 years where Edmunds will be do a new contract a year later, but I am just pointing out that trades with high value draft picks have happened this way proving there is a trade market.

 

So for me, the trade value is there for Edmunds IMHO if Beane were to look to make the trade today.  Like I said earlier, by seasons end that could change if he battles injuries again, his play lags, or both...but today, I am quite confident he would have multiple suitors where he could get at least a 2nd for him.  

 

I still don't buy that there is any proof of a market. I get that guys like Edmunds don't move very often. Maybe he is the unicorn but until I see it personally I doubt it.

[John from Riverside]

My question is as it has always been....

 

If we trade or let Edmunds hit the market....who replaces him?

 

- A drafted player not yet on the team?

- Klein?

[Augie]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

My question is as it has always been....

 

If we trade or let Edmunds hit the market....who replaces him?

 

- A drafted player not yet on the team?

- Klein?

 

It seems Klein can only go forward effectively. Just my opinion. 

[John from Riverside]

14 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

It seems Klein can only go forward effectively. Just my opinion. 

That is my feeling as well.....a excellent backup player but I just think we are going to see teams gutting us to the middle of the field all game long if we go the Klein route.

 

That is why I find people saying Edmunds is a bad player buffoons......is he worth top 5 money?  No......but he is not a bad player

[Augie]

27 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

That is my feeling as well.....a excellent backup player but I just think we are going to see teams gutting us to the middle of the field all game long if we go the Klein route.

 

That is why I find people saying Edmunds is a bad player buffoons......is he worth top 5 money?  No......but he is not a bad player

 

I’m afraid with Klein in there it will just be a matter of pitch and catch over the middle as opponents march down the field. 

 

Edmunds can certainly help, but, as you and others point out, only at the right price. 

 

If you actually CAN improve QB accuracy, maybe a MLB can improve instincts?   🤷‍♀️

 

 

.

Edited September 28, 2021 by Augie

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just see very little chance he plays on $12.7m. It feels highly unlikely to me that the Bills are willing to drop that much on a guy they are about to part from. So if they decide he is done after next year they will try and trade him IMO (agree getting a deal together is hard to do). 

 

Which is why I think far more likely they extend him and there is a way to do it (as I set out before) where you can slot him in as the 5th best paid off the ball 'backer in the NFL with a good yearly average and a good chunk of new guaranteed money and leave the Bills flexibility after the third year of the deal. That is the kind of thing I am expecting. Numbers that look like the Bills are committing long term but that in reality equate to a 2 year extension onto his current deal with manageable cap hits.

My issue is that $12.7M is now the AAV floor for an extension and a longer deal means a lot more guaranteed money than that.  I get your point about lowering his cap hit in the first year and keeping it low in the second, but we will have to take the rest of that hit eventually.  It’s just a road that I would have preferred they had not gone down.

[YattaOkasan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just see very little chance he plays on $12.7m. It feels highly unlikely to me that the Bills are willing to drop that much on a guy they are about to part from. So if they decide he is done after next year they will try and trade him IMO (agree getting a deal together is hard to do). 

 

Which is why I think far more likely they extend him and there is a way to do it (as I set out before) where you can slot him in as the 5th best paid off the ball 'backer in the NFL with a good yearly average and a good chunk of new guaranteed money and leave the Bills flexibility after the third year of the deal. That is the kind of thing I am expecting. Numbers that look like the Bills are committing long term but that in reality equate to a 2 year extension onto his current deal with manageable cap hits.

Do you mean cash, salary, or cap hit?  For 2022 he’s currently listed as 10th highest cap hit for ILB on spotrac. Do we need to lower hit if he is 10th in terms of cap?  
 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2022/cap-hit/inside-linebacker/

Edited September 28, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[Rochesterfan]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

My issue is that $12.7M is now the AAV floor for an extension and a longer deal means a lot more guaranteed money than that.  I get your point about lowering his cap hit in the first year and keeping it low in the second, but we will have to take the rest of that hit eventually.  It’s just a road that I would have preferred they had not gone down.

 

Not necessarily.  They can work out an extension and have a lower AAV.  It all depends upon what they agree to.  
 

He could look for more or he could take money up front and then adjust the AAV throughout.  
 

There is no rule that he has to be that high, but he could want that since that is where he would be without an extension. 
 

We have no idea what has been discussed - we only know that Beane stated he wanted to get Allen done 1st and then look at others once he had Allen’s cap hits figured out.

 

 

[BarleyNY]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Spotrac has Edmunds between $14m per year and $16.5m per year (when adjusted for his younger than normal age). Fred Warner got $19m per year and $40m guaranteed. I can well imagine the Bills giving Edmunds 5 years, $82m, $35m guaranteed. If you did $20m of that as a singing bonus and guaranteed his year 1 and year 2 salary entirely that would allow them to reduce the cap hit in 2022 to about $6-8m, with about $10-12m per year hits in 2023 and 2024, and mean your cap hit if you wanted to cut bait after 2024 would only be around $8m (and at that stage the Bills would have some leverage to restructure if they wanted to keep him). 

 

I wanted to circle back and look at this more closely in case I missed something.  Based on your contract parameters I get something this:
2022: $20M SB + $3M salary, cap hit of $7M

2023: $5M salary, $9M cap hit

2024: $16M salary, $20M cap hit

2025: $18M salary, $22M cap hit

2026: $20M salary, $24M cap hit

 

Effectively a minimum 3 year, $44M deal due to some salary guarantees carrying into year 3. There’s just a lot better ways to spend that cap space IMO.  I just don’t think Edmunds is worth close to that. 

27 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Not necessarily.  They can work out an extension and have a lower AAV.  It all depends upon what they agree to.  
 

He could look for more or he could take money up front and then adjust the AAV throughout.  
 

There is no rule that he has to be that high, but he could want that since that is where he would be without an extension. 
 

We have no idea what has been discussed - we only know that Beane stated he wanted to get Allen done 1st and then look at others once he had Allen’s cap hits figured out.

 

 

I’m assuming that he has a competent agent.

[JaCrispy]

There’s no way I would give Kelvin Sheppard, I mean Trumaine Edmunds, that contract...

[Rochesterfan]

34 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I wanted to circle back and look at this more closely in case I missed something.  Based on your contract parameters I get something this:
2022: $20M SB + $3M salary, cap hit of $7M

2023: $5M salary, $9M cap hit

2024: $16M salary, $20M cap hit

2025: $18M salary, $22M cap hit

2026: $20M salary, $24M cap hit

 

Effectively a minimum 3 year, $44M deal due to some salary guarantees carrying into year 3. There’s just a lot better ways to spend that cap space IMO.  I just don’t think Edmunds is worth close to that. 

I’m assuming that he has a competent agent.

 
 

So did Milano, Williams, and Mongo - yet all took below market value to come back - no reason to believe Edmunds who seems to like this staff and this FO can’t find a manageable middle ground - I would assume someplace around his 5th year option is the sweet spot.

 

Based upon your above contract I would not think he would get signed, but if he wants an AAV of 12-14 million over 4 years in an extension plus the 5th year - you could easily do:

 

2022 - 25 M signing bonus + 3 million salary = 8 M Cap (savings of almost 5 million next year)

2023 - 5M salary = 10 M Cap (can covert to roster bonus to spread out)

New TV money hits

2024 - 8 M Salary = 13 million Cap 

2025 - 8 M Salary = 13 million cap

2026 - 11 M Salary = 16 million cap

 

That would be a 4 year 48 million extension plus the 12 million for the 5th year option - essentially right in the 12 million a year range they are willing to pay on the option.  You can also massage the numbers up or down - especially later and get more savings upfront.  You can also use roster bonuses and work out bonuses to spread out more.  
 

Beane could also break the signing bonus up to make the savings year 1 and 2 even more with both still guaranteed.  Allowing them to retain more players.

 

You gave him a 4 year 70 million extension or about 17.5 million per season.  I think that is higher than they are willing to go.  
 

I could even see meeting in the middle of ours and going up to 55 million and add ~2 - million more to the last 3 years making it 13.7 AAV on the extension.

 

There are a ton of options some palatable and some less so.  The question becomes where do they slot him - versus where does he slot himself.
 

 

Edited September 29, 2021 by Rochesterfan