Picking up Edmunds Option a Rare Beane Mistake

[Coach Tuesday]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

 

It's not two years, its two year increments over six years. That's 155 pairs of consecutive team-seasons, or 310 individual data points.

I know that - but my point is he’s still comparing two consecutive seasons in each “set,” looking for correlation.

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Typical. When there's no reasonable argument to be made, pull a quick switch, insert a straw man and pretend you're arguing with what he actually said.

 

Remind us, with your arguments about turnover differential, did he ever say that turnovers are random? Yeah, the answer to that is "No." Wouldn't make sense to. Interceptions are anything but random. Nor is causing fumbles. What is pretty close to random is who recovers them. 

 

Having disposed of your first straw man, let's proceed to the second. Did he say that recovering fumbles was evenly distributed among all players based on number of snaps? Because if he had, you certainly polished off that argument very well. Thing is, that's not what he said.

 

I wouldn't go quite so far as random myself, not on the player vs. player level. Some positions get more, some get less, those are facts. On the team level, yeah, the stats show that offense/defense recoveries go pretty close to 50:50. On the player vs. player level, though, yeah, it's wildly affected by luck, by how close you are, by direction you're going, by the bounce, and so on. That will - duh - not result in recoveries being spread out evenly across the roster based on number of snaps. That's not how randomness works.

If you read the study linked to above, the author basically concludes that forcing interceptions and fumbles is close to random, too, which makes little sense.

 

Also, is he counting fumbles out of bounds as “recoveries” by the offense?  If so that will skew the results.  To do the study right I think you’d want to exclude those, perhaps by only measuring recoveries of fumbles by the quarterback (since they tend to occur toward the middle of the field/in bounds more often than not).

Edited September 28, 2021 by Coach Tuesday

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

Holy *****!... I've still never read a single post in this thread.  My gut says athlete over football player, but he's still a young MLB on a learning curve.  I think this offense and defense can withstand some more patience-time for one promising player in one friggin' position. 
 

Can we give him the season- even if he gets pulled, I'd rather watch it play out than see the title of this thread one more time.  

[GunnerBill]

Something else to throw into the mix here.... but at the moment the Bills have 37 players under contract in 2022 and $20m of cap space. They can make about another $16m of space if they cut AJ Klein (he is a goner), Daryl Williams (and depending on Brown's development that is possible) and Cole Beasley (not impossible, he will be 33 by the time next season starts). 

 

Regardless of the space Stef, Tre and Josh (our three best players) will account for just under a quarter of our total cap. If you add Dion to that you are at nearly 30% on four players and if you add Tremaine on his 5th year option you are above 35% on five players. 

 

My conclusion? It is highly unlikely Tremaine is playing for the Bills on that option. His option hit of $12.7m is high and I suspect the Bills want to lower that number. While they could, of course, trade him the likelihood is they wouldn't get close to the value they gave up to get him. He'd fetch at best a 3rd round pick. Joe Schobert was traded for a 6th this past offseason and while I don't think he is as talented as Edmunds he is a former pro-bowler too. MLBs just don't fetch big compensation in the trade market. Therefore by far the most likely outcome IMO is the Bills extend Edmunds and they extend him in such a way that lowers that cap hit in 2022, and keeps his hits manageable through 2023 and 2024 too while guaranteeing him money in those years meaning that when the bigger hits commence in 2025 the Bills can get out if they wish to. 

 

Spotrac has Edmunds between $14m per year and $16.5m per year (when adjusted for his younger than normal age). Fred Warner got $19m per year and $40m guaranteed. I can well imagine the Bills giving Edmunds 5 years, $82m, $35m guaranteed. If you did $20m of that as a singing bonus and guaranteed his year 1 and year 2 salary entirely that would allow them to reduce the cap hit in 2022 to about $6-8m, with about $10-12m per year hits in 2023 and 2024, and mean your cap hit if you wanted to cut bait after 2024 would only be around $8m (and at that stage the Bills would have some leverage to restructure if they wanted to keep him). 

 

I just think when you look at the bigger picture here and the fact that coming up after him the Bills still have Ed Oliver, possibly Dawson Knox if we believe his improvement is real, AJ Epenesa... all in the next two years it brings home how carefully they have to manage things and how much forward planning they have to do. You can make it work, the cap is nothing if not malleable, but you can't really have guys playing on 5th year options because they are very inflexible things.  

Edited September 28, 2021 by GunnerBill

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Something else to throw into the mix here.... but at the moment the Bills have 37 players under contract in 2022 and $20m of cap space. They can make about another $16m of space if they cut AJ Klein (he is a goner), Daryl Williams (and depending on Brown's development that is possible) and Cole Beasley (not impossible, he will be 33 by the time next season starts). 

 

Regardless of the space Stef, Tre and Josh (our three best players) will account for just under a quarter of our total cap. If you add Dion to that you are at nearly 30% on four players and if you add Tremaine on his 5th year option you are above 35% on five players. 

 

My conclusion? It is highly unlikely Tremaine is playing for the Bills on that option. His option hit of $12.7m is high and I suspect the Bills want to lower that number. While they could, of course, trade him the likelihood is they wouldn't get close to the value they gave up to get him. He'd fetch at best a 3rd round pick. Joe Schobert was traded for a 6th this past offseason and while I don't think he is as talented as Edmunds he is a former pro-bowler too. MLBs just don't fetch big compensation in the trade market. Therefore by far the most likely outcome IMO is the Bills extend Edmunds and they extend him in such a way that lowers that cap hit in 2022, and keeps his hits manageable through 2023 and 2024 too while guaranteeing him money in those years meaning that when the bigger hits commence in 2025 the Bills can get out if they wish to. 

 

Spotrac has Edmunds between $14m per year and $16.5m per year (when adjusted for his younger than normal age). Fred Warner got $19m per year and $40m guaranteed. I can well imagine the Bills giving Edmunds 5 years, $82m, $35m guaranteed. If you did $20m of that as a singing bonus and guaranteed his year 1 and year 2 salary entirely that would allow them to reduce the cap hit in 2022 to about $6-8m, with about $10-12m per year hits in 2023 and 2024, and mean your cap hit if you wanted to cut bait after 2024 would only be around $8m (and at that stage the Bills would have some leverage to restructure if they wanted to keep him). 

 

I just think when you look at the bigger picture here and the fact that coming up after him the Bills still have Ed Oliver, possibly Dawson Knox if we believe his improvement is real, AJ Epenesa... all in the next two years it brings home how carefully they have to manage things and how much forward planning they have to do. You can make it work, the cap is nothing if not malleable, but you can't really have guys playing on 5th year options because they are very inflexible things.  

 

 

The fact that an extension isn't done already says A LOT about what they think about Edmunds.

 

Those who think the Bills absolutely love what they see are oblivious to this rather obvious point...........if he had been playing like the All Pro they expected he'd be they probably would have let Milano walk and would have given Edmunds a huge deal this summer.

 

Being able to extend both Allen and Edmunds from Beane's very first draft class would have been a huge feather in the cap for the GM.

 

Picking Edmunds option up was only a mistake if you were hoping to get a comp pick for losing him though...........you are right that he has little trade value with that figure,  modest production and looming free agency but someone with a glaring hole at MLB, a lot of cap space and no intention of wasting a 1st round pick on a devalued position would likely take him for at least a day 3 pick.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The fact that an extension isn't done already says A LOT about what they think about Edmunds.

 

Those who think the Bills absolutely love what they see are oblivious to this rather obvious point...........if he had been playing like the All Pro they expected he'd be they probably would have let Milano walk and would have given Edmunds a huge deal this summer.

 

Being able to extend both Allen and Edmunds from Beane's very first draft class would have been a huge feather in the cap for the GM.

 

Picking Edmunds option up was only a mistake if you were hoping to get a comp pick for losing him though...........you are right that he has little trade value with that figure,  modest production and looming free agency but someone with a glaring hole at MLB, a lot of cap space and no intention of wasting a 1st round pick on a devalued position would likely take him for at least a day 3 pick.

 

Do you think there is a good chance he plays on that 5th year option then? When I look at the cap situation that number just looks big and if I can get it down to avoid having the cut Daryl Williams and possibly Beas that is attractive to me if I am Brandon Beane. 

 

I agree with you about what has happened thus far, what do you think will happen between now and the end of next season when the 5th year option would expire?

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Do you think there is a good chance he plays on that 5th year option then? When I look at the cap situation that number just looks big and if I can get it down to avoid having the cut Daryl Williams and possibly Beas that is attractive to me if I am Brandon Beane. 

 

I agree with you about what has happened thus far, what do you think will happen between now and the end of next season when the 5th year option would expire?

 

 

I really don't know what Beane will do but I'd like to think that he won't extend Edmunds unless he makes what would be very noticeable strides. 

 

Right now 5 of the starters in the back 7 have cap hits over $9M next season..........and that's not counting Taron Johnson who they probably can't afford to re-sign.........it's hard to see that kind of investment working out in the long run.    

 

The cap is malleable but one would hope that they will be in a competitive window with Josh Allen for another decade plus and you don't want to be fighting the cap like New Orleans.    

 

Not even sure the Pegula's would be willing to do that.    According to Forbes the Bills had become used to clearing $70M-$80M per season and last year they registered a loss of close to $20M (after taxes, depreciation + amortization so not necessarily a real loss but a near $100M swing in profit decline).     Beane can want to push debt forward but that has to be a two way street with ownership.   

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I really don't know what Beane will do but I'd like to think that he won't extend Edmunds unless he makes what would be very noticeable strides. 

 

Right now 5 of the starters in the back 7 have cap hits over $9M next season..........and that's not counting Taron Johnson who they probably can't afford to re-sign.........it's hard to see that kind of investment working out in the long run.    

 

The cap is malleable but one would hope that they will be in a competitive window with Josh Allen for another decade plus and you don't want to be fighting the cap like New Orleans.    

 

Not even sure the Pegula's would be willing to do that.    According to Forbes the Bills had become used to clearing $70M-$80M per season and last year they registered a loss of close to $20M (after taxes, depreciation + amortization so not necessarily a real loss but a near $100M swing in profit decline).     Beane can want to push debt forward but that has to be a two way street with ownership.   

 

I don't think he will play in Buffalo next season on the 5th year option. That is my prediction. Either he will be extended to bring that number down or he will be gone. 

[Rochesterfan]

6 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The fact that an extension isn't done already says A LOT about what they think about Edmunds.

 

 

I don’t necessarily agree with this.  Beane said it before - Allen was the first priority to get done.  That took until near the end of training camp with talk of having to put it off until next year.

 

They were never signing Edmunds before that deal got done because they needed to know what the flexibility surrounding Allen’s cap number was going to do.  Allen’s signing was always priority #1 and now they have his payments set.  The only thing it says is that Allen is the single most important piece for the Bills - it really says nothing about Edmunds.

 

I think they now have to figure out Edmunds for next year.  I doubt he plays on the 5th year option.  The question is what is fair and how many years.  I would expect the Bills work to extend him a couple of years with lots of money upfront and lower salary the next 2 years and then 1 year with a nice salary and little bonus left - where the Bills can look at extending or cutting. 
 

He will be paid more than Milano because of the timing - he gets to sign after a couple of LBs cross 19-20 million a season.  
 

I think they would love to keep Taron also, but much like Dean Marlowe - I am not sure they can do it.  The problem is this is where he will play best - so for close money he should stay - I am just not sure the Bills get close enough.

Edited September 28, 2021 by Rochesterfan

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The fact that an extension isn't done already says A LOT about what they think about Edmunds.

 

Those who think the Bills absolutely love what they see are oblivious to this rather obvious point...........if he had been playing like the All Pro they expected he'd be they probably would have let Milano walk and would have given Edmunds a huge deal this summer.

 

Being able to extend both Allen and Edmunds from Beane's very first draft class would have been a huge feather in the cap for the GM.

 

Picking Edmunds option up was only a mistake if you were hoping to get a comp pick for losing him though...........you are right that he has little trade value with that figure,  modest production and looming free agency but someone with a glaring hole at MLB, a lot of cap space and no intention of wasting a 1st round pick on a devalued position would likely take him for at least a day 3 pick.

How confident are you he won’t get extended? Let’s put some money on it.

[Thurman#1]

 

14 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Thats really what the conversation comes down to…. His 5th year option being picked up is already putting him in that top 5 LB money category….. They’d be nuts to pay him as a top 3-5 LB going forward, but I think it’s very possible because I think they love him and already picked up his 5th year option.

 

 

They wouldn't be paying him as a top 3-5 LB. They'd be paying him as the 5th (not the 3rd or 4th, but the 5th) best-paid off-ball linebacker.

 

Leonard, Warner, Wagner and Mosley all get $17M or more. If we pay him at the numbers you're suggesting (a reasonable guess), he'd be 5th. And generally when you have a guy who is, say, the 7th to 12th best at a position, he at first will be paid somewhere around the neighborhood of 5th best. That's the way it works. Then a year or two down the line he has fallen to to 10th or so, and a year or two still later he's still lower. 

 

It's anything but nuts, it's S.O.P. if you want the guy. And I agree with you that they seem to love him, probably because he's doing what they want him to do and is improving with time. Barring injury or regression, it does indeed seem very likely.

 

There are generally somewhere around 9 - 11 guys on most teams who are the core guys and who the team feels they have to pay. The defensive captain who they love and who they have already guaranteed $12.7M to in 2022 seems likely to be one of those.

 

And as Gunner points out, they could re-structure his 5th year option only if they give him a longer contract. And in 2023 they are around $90M below the cap and the cap seems likely to rise a lot at that point as well.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The fact that an extension isn't done already says A LOT about what they think about Edmunds.

 

Those who think the Bills absolutely love what they see are oblivious to this rather obvious point...........if he had been playing like the All Pro they expected he'd be they probably would have let Milano walk and would have given Edmunds a huge deal this summer.

 

Being able to extend both Allen and Edmunds from Beane's very first draft class would have been a huge feather in the cap for the GM.

 

Picking Edmunds option up was only a mistake if you were hoping to get a comp pick for losing him though...........you are right that he has little trade value with that figure,  modest production and looming free agency but someone with a glaring hole at MLB, a lot of cap space and no intention of wasting a 1st round pick on a devalued position would likely take him for at least a day 3 pick.

 

 

That's absolute blather. Name all the 5th year extension pickups who got their extensions by the 3rd game of their 4th year.

 

Hell, name ten.

 

Exactly.

 

As for the further nonsense in your second paragraph, again, obvious balderdash. You desperately attempt to frame it as Edmunds vs. Milano, but it's very obvious they want both. Which is precisely their M.O. 

 

Remind us, which of their two very highly paid LBs did they dump to sign the other one in Carolina? Did they dump Kuechly? Or Davis? 

 

By your jaw-droppingly bad logic here, signing Davis to a major contract was proof that they were going to let Kuechly go. He is playing like the Pro Bowler they hoped he'd be, and they probably think Milano is playing at a very high level too and thus they are thrilled to keep two highly-paid very effective LBs on the roster, just as they have done since Carolina.

 

 

[YattaOkasan]

10 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

They wouldn't be paying him as a top 3-5 LB. They'd be paying him as the 5th (not the 3rd or 4th, but the 5th) best-paid off-ball linebacker.

 

Leonard, Warner, Wagner and Mosley all get $17M or more. If we pay him at the numbers you're suggesting (a reasonable guess), he'd be 5th. And generally when you have a guy who is, say, the 7th to 12th best at a position, he at first will be paid somewhere around the neighborhood of 5th best. That's the way it works. Then a year or two down the line he has fallen to to 10th or so, and a year or two still later he's still lower. 

 

It's anything but nuts, it's S.O.P. if you want the guy. And I agree with you that they seem to love him, probably because he's doing what they want him to do and is improving with time. Barring injury or regression, it does indeed seem very likely.

 

There are generally somewhere around 9 - 11 guys on most teams who are the core guys and who the team feels they have to pay. The defensive captain who they love and who they have already guaranteed $12.7M to in 2022 seems likely to be one of those.

 

And as Gunner points out, they could re-structure his 5th year option only if they give him a longer contract. And in 2023 they are around $90M below the cap and the cap seems likely to rise a lot at that point as well.

Spot trac has him as the 10th highest in 2022.  So wow thats pretty reasonable if you think hes at number 10 like most of the board (and many posters).

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/2022/inside-linebacker/cap-hit/

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I really don't know what Beane will do but I'd like to think that he won't extend Edmunds unless he makes what would be very noticeable strides. 

 

Right now 5 of the starters in the back 7 have cap hits over $9M next season..........and that's not counting Taron Johnson who they probably can't afford to re-sign.........it's hard to see that kind of investment working out in the long run.    

 

The cap is malleable but one would hope that they will be in a competitive window with Josh Allen for another decade plus and you don't want to be fighting the cap like New Orleans.    

 

Not even sure the Pegula's would be willing to do that.    According to Forbes the Bills had become used to clearing $70M-$80M per season and last year they registered a loss of close to $20M (after taxes, depreciation + amortization so not necessarily a real loss but a near $100M swing in profit decline).     Beane can want to push debt forward but that has to be a two way street with ownership.   

 

I think that 20M loss had a lot to do with literally having 0 fans in the stands.  Tickets don't make you a ton of that, but carrying a 0 when you could be making several million doesn't help things.

[YattaOkasan]

8 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I think that 20M loss had a lot to do with literally having 0 fans in the stands.  Tickets don't make you a ton of that, but carrying a 0 when you could be making several million doesn't help things.

I think its almost all the loss.  I see 104 million lost on forbes and 7 mil per game at another site.  Thats 56-104 mil.

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeozanian/2020/05/18/the-stadium-revenue-each-nfl-team-will-lose-if-games-are-played-without-fans/?sh=1a6417a4691a (figure at bottom)

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/062515/how-nfl-makes-money.asp (half way down they discuss money per event).

 

Edit: Math in the second one didnt add up.  I got it closer to 80.  So yeah most of it was ticket loss.

Edited September 28, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[nucci]

aren't 5th year options guaranteed once picked up?

[YattaOkasan]

2 minutes ago, nucci said:

aren't 5th year options guaranteed once picked up?

Yes by my limited understanding

[LeGOATski]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't think he will play in Buffalo next season on the 5th year option. That is my prediction. Either he will be extended to bring that number down or he will be gone. 

What kind of hit are they taking if they release him?

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

What kind of hit are they taking if they release him?

 

0% chance he will be released...the only way Edmunds isn't in Buffalo next season as @GunnerBill alluded to if he doesnt get his extension this offseason is by trade.  Edmunds will have plenty of suitors who will look to trade for him and Beane will get value back before outright cutting him.  

 

And quite frankly, he could easily get a 2nd for him right now, and maybe even more like multiple picks or even a first.  He will have multiple suitors bidding on him.  Doesn't matter what people on this board think, he has value across the league as a young 2 time pro bowl MLB who is the captain of his defense.  Beane would shop him saying we can't afford to retain him next year and easily get good value in a trade for him if he decides Edmunds is not in our future plans.  

 

And I kind of agree with GunnerBill on this that if Beane has decided to NOT extend him as soon as this season ends, I think Beane makes a move to trade him this offseason rather than risk losing him for nothing given he will get some good value for him.  Now its possible before now and end of the season Edmunds could lower his value if he has a rough year, but today, easily get a 2nd and possibly more for him.   

Edited September 28, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

What kind of hit are they taking if they release him?

 

They are not releasing him. The 5th year is fully guaranteed. He is either traded or extended IMO and I lean strongly towards them doing the latter.

[LeGOATski]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

0% chance he will be released...the only way Edmunds isn't Buffalo next season as GunnerBill alluded to if he doesnt get his extension this offseason is by trade.  Edmunds will have plenty of suitors who will look to trade for him and Beane will get value back before outright cutting him.  

 

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They are not releasing him. The 5th year is fully guaranteed. He is either traded or extended IMO and I lean strongly towards them doing the latter.

Ah yeah, this makes much more sense. I can only see this happening if they're confident they can get a similar coverage LB in the draft.