Picking up Edmunds Option a Rare Beane Mistake

[HomeskillitMoorman]

I’m somewhere in the middle here. I think picking up the option was absolutely the right call, but I agree he’s kind of a disappointment overall and not the player I had hoped he was going to be.

 

I wouldn’t bring him back on a long term deal but for basically 1 year and taking the chance he could make a leap this season, I was down for that. 

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There aren't really metrics to support the "near impossibility" of attacking Edmunds in zone drops.

 

He took a step back last year when opposing QB's started attacking him more.   He's still too easily manipulated.   In college he was really just a see-ball get-ball LB and not instinctive or good at recognizing the broader scope of how plays are going to unfold.  It's not a mistake that instinctive backers make plays......their anticipation allows it.  But just as important Edmunds has not been a threat to make plays on the football if you throw at him and when that's the case then eventually QB's will take their chances.    That happened to the tune of a woeful 114 passer rating against and passing 4 TD's allowed by him in 2020.

 

I remember on Sunday the Dolphins worked him for a 13 yard gain to Waddle on a play where he and Gesicki both attacked the middle.    Brissett read Edmunds shoulders and that was that(setting up the 4th down where Jackson made the great shoe-string tackle).    So, still not impossible. 

 

Edmunds is the nail too often in the passing game and QB's are getting better at being the hammer.   It's pretty early in the season but he's been targeted 4 times and allowed 3 completions so far and his passer rating allowed is 106 (which would, of course,  be very bad as a season figure).

 

 

So you know I am a fan of Edmunds and I agree, the bolded is true and the biggest leak in his game. It relates directly to the amount of space he's required to cover in his zone drops while being aware of receivers underneath or coming across his vision...part of the defense by design in nickle is to utilize his length in the MOF to add the extra DB BUT...he's still getting caught with his eyes in the backfield and savvy QBs  make him pay. Brady used to do it, Mahomes has been the one to take advantage of it recently. It's a very valid criticism.

 

However, in man coverage his responsibilities are typically the RB where Edmunds is very, very effective. I would guess that the poor passer rating in 2020 is due almost entirely to the zone looks where he was simply the closest defender to the receiver, because in man he is a very effective pass defender. If you watch when we are in a man look and the RB goes flat or wheel like here he basically wipes it out:

 

He does this consistently and at a high level. Being able to win 1v1 in pass coverage vs one of Brisset's reads there (you can see him look at the wheel route as the RB turns his head) allows them to bring a safety down into the box to cloud the crossers instead of leaving him high to help w the flat/wheel. That's one of the reasons we get the sack here.

 

Basically, Edmunds is a McDermott player through and through. He's cerebral and reliable to a fault: he's always in his Agap on run fits, always in his zone or man responsibilities in coverage. His athleticism is almost secondary to his reliability, strange as that may sound. Now is he perfect, clearly no. There is a lack of big play ability (some of which is due to his style which is admittedly conservative due to scheme, some would wrongly label it a lack of physicality), being too easily manipulated in zone as stated, and sometimes he will make a mistake or take a wrong angle but you'd be hard pressed to find an LB who doesn't. He is a great scheme fit MLB for this defense.

[Rochesterfan]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

I think if they felt that Edmunds was the foundation that the entire defense was built around that he'd at least have been inked to a long term deal by now.

 

 

This is a terrible point and you should be better than this.

 

This was the first off season they could resign him and everyone knew Josh was the first guy they had to sign - which got done near the end of training camp.

 

The only facts we have in regards to how they feel about him and a long term deal is the fact they picked up the 5th year option despite the fact the due to 2 ProBowls (whether anyone wants to count them or not - for his contract they absolutely counted) causing his option to be higher than other at the position.

 

Other than picking up the option - none of us know what the Bills and Edmunds agents have discussed for long term deals.  We don’t know which other LBs Edmunds agents wanted signed first to set value, we don’t know if the Bills offered him a long term contract and they declined because of how the cap will play out with the new TV deal.  None of us knows if they mutually decided to wait until this next off season because of the salary cap or maybe talked about other options.  

 

To say that he isn’t the foundation because in the 4 months they have been allowed to sign him - they haven’t yet, is absolutely wrong - especially with his draft classmate having to get signed 1st.  If he plays out the rest of the contract and they don’t try to re-sign him - then this becomes a legitimate statement, but until then we can only judge his worth on the fact that the Bills did pick up the very expensive 5th year option and Beane has said after Josh was done they would look at his contract.  
 

 

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

On the manipulation in zone thing... it is helped by the defense getting the offense into 2nd and 3rd and longs. Last year we lost so consistently on 1st down we were constantly vulnerable to play action where teams found it easier to get Edmunds to take the bait. In 2019 we were a better 1st down defense and so far this year we have been too and to an extent it simplifies the things Edmunds has to think about it in those zone coverages. 

 

I think when it comes to 2020 both of the following statements are true:

 

- Edmunds' play took a step back; and

- there were a number of aspects to that aside from just him himself (poor Dline play, bad 1st down D as a whole, injury). 

[Coach Tuesday]

10 hours ago, 97bills said:

And what about white blitzes, they really never saw that on tape I think one in a blue moon his none that 

[Putin]

On 9/20/2021 at 4:39 AM, Brennan Huff said:

Edmunds is a very polarizing figure on these boards. He’s made the Pro Bowl 2 out his 3 years in the league but yet a lot of you say he’s terrible and want to run him out of town. I don’t get it. I hope we do offer him a contract 

I agree with you !

I just think people expect more from him as far as impact or even  being a difference maker ,  and also because ( IMO ) they are looking at Milano who was a 5th round pick and so far has been the better LB ..

[34-78-83]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

So you know I am a fan of Edmunds and I agree, the bolded is true and the biggest leak in his game. It relates directly to the amount of space he's required to cover in his zone drops while being aware of receivers underneath or coming across his vision...part of the defense by design in nickle is to utilize his length in the MOF to add the extra DB BUT...he's still getting caught with his eyes in the backfield and savvy QBs  make him pay. Brady used to do it, Mahomes has been the one to take advantage of it recently. It's a very valid criticism.

 

However, in man coverage his responsibilities are typically the RB where Edmunds is very, very effective. I would guess that the poor passer rating in 2020 is due almost entirely to the zone looks where he was simply the closest defender to the receiver, because in man he is a very effective pass defender. If you watch when we are in a man look and the RB goes flat or wheel like here he basically wipes it out:

 

He does this consistently and at a high level. Being able to win 1v1 in pass coverage vs one of Brisset's reads there (you can see him look at the wheel route as the RB turns his head) allows them to bring a safety down into the box to cloud the crossers instead of leaving him high to help w the flat/wheel. That's one of the reasons we get the sack here.

 

Basically, Edmunds is a McDermott player through and through. He's cerebral and reliable to a fault: he's always in his Agap on run fits, always in his zone or man responsibilities in coverage. His athleticism is almost secondary to his reliability, strange as that may sound. Now is he perfect, clearly no. There is a lack of big play ability (some of which is due to his style which is admittedly conservative due to scheme, some would wrongly label it a lack of physicality), being too easily manipulated in zone as stated, and sometimes he will make a mistake or take a wrong angle but you'd be hard pressed to find an LB who doesn't. He is a great scheme fit MLB for this defense.

this is a good point you make. I was thinking about the "rating against" stat and the first thing I thought of is that more than half the time we are in zone so how is this stat actually being measured? Lots of assumptions like typical analytic based stats can contain...However, to see another contract here in Buffalo, the dude IS going to have to make some impact plays to go with his scheme fit this year...

[JaCrispy]

I’m not sure the difference in talent between Edmunds and his backup would match the difference in pay should the bills decide to extend him...

 

[Buffalo Junction]

25 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

This is really the point…. There is no way the Bills can justify a Leonard type extension with his current play. 

I agree with that. The question though becomes whether or not they can bring him back for a more modest contract. I wouldn’t scoff if Beane managed to resign Edmunds for something like a 4 year $55M contract, or maybe a bit higher with some “outs” in it. It’ll be interesting to see how that negotiation plays out. If the kid could reliably tip 1-3 passes a game we probably wouldn’t be having this conversation. Just getting his rookie season turnovers reliably would start making him look like a better resigning. It’s just odd that he’s gotten worse at making splash plays every year of his career. I can’t recall ever seeing that before. 

[JaCrispy]

The Bills should take the temperature of the trade market...if they can get a bottom 1st rounder or two 2nd rounders, I would take it and run...

[LabattBlue]

3 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Eh. I’d rather they just let him walk altogether and use that money for an interior offensive lineman, pass rusher, CB, or another offensive playmaker…. But McD seems to love him so I wouldn’t be surprised if they resign him even if it is a slight overpay…. The allocation of money and draft picks seems to be heavily defensive sided(outside of Josh’s contract). Would really like to seen them invest more offensively.

I think next year you will see picks in the first three rounds used on interior OL, and DB’s. 

[LeGOATski]

10 hours ago, NewEra said:

That’s the one play everyone remembers because it’s 1 of 1 memorable plays that he’s made

There's just so much hyperbole. It's the one everyone should remember, but they still claim they don't and that Edmunds has made zero plays. 🙄 I'm sure you loved that play against Miami where Edmunds beat 2 blockers to get to the RB behind the LOS. Do you even remember it? It was only 5 days ago.

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

So you know I am a fan of Edmunds and I agree, the bolded is true and the biggest leak in his game. It relates directly to the amount of space he's required to cover in his zone drops while being aware of receivers underneath or coming across his vision...part of the defense by design in nickle is to utilize his length in the MOF to add the extra DB BUT...he's still getting caught with his eyes in the backfield and savvy QBs  make him pay. Brady used to do it, Mahomes has been the one to take advantage of it recently. It's a very valid criticism.

 

However, in man coverage his responsibilities are typically the RB where Edmunds is very, very effective. I would guess that the poor passer rating in 2020 is due almost entirely to the zone looks where he was simply the closest defender to the receiver, because in man he is a very effective pass defender. If you watch when we are in a man look and the RB goes flat or wheel like here he basically wipes it out:

 

He does this consistently and at a high level. Being able to win 1v1 in pass coverage vs one of Brisset's reads there (you can see him look at the wheel route as the RB turns his head) allows them to bring a safety down into the box to cloud the crossers instead of leaving him high to help w the flat/wheel. That's one of the reasons we get the sack here.

 

Basically, Edmunds is a McDermott player through and through. He's cerebral and reliable to a fault: he's always in his Agap on run fits, always in his zone or man responsibilities in coverage. His athleticism is almost secondary to his reliability, strange as that may sound. Now is he perfect, clearly no. There is a lack of big play ability (some of which is due to his style which is admittedly conservative due to scheme, some would wrongly label it a lack of physicality), being too easily manipulated in zone as stated, and sometimes he will make a mistake or take a wrong angle but you'd be hard pressed to find an LB who doesn't. He is a great scheme fit MLB for this defense.

First and foremost, the bolded part is absolutely not correct.  One of Edmunds most glaring problems is that he often leaves his gap responsibility when it looks like the play is away from it.   That leaves the gap wide open for cut backs.  Misdirection and cut back runners are huge problems for him.  Where he excels is scraping sideline to sideline.  As long as he can avoid his blocker he’s great at that.

 

As for his pass responsibilities, he is up and down there too.  Obviously he’s got that sideline to sideline speed to keep up with a RB, but that’s not exactly that difficult of a job.  The tough job his has is in underneath zone and he’s been a mixed bag there.

 

He has been too inconsistent in both phases of the game to warrant the contract he is in line for here.

[NewEra]

41 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

There's just so much hyperbole. It's the one everyone should remember, but they still claim they don't and that Edmunds has made zero plays. 🙄 I'm sure you loved that play against Miami where Edmunds beat 2 blockers to get to the RB behind the LOS. Do you even remember it? It was only 5 days ago.

I remember it.  MnF vs SF. I don’t say he hasn’t made any big play.  Only that he’s made one……and I can’t remember any others.  The thing I remember most about the 4th and 1 stop on mnf……..being so happy that Edmunds made a play like that.  Not to mention shocked.  
 

I like the kid…..but let’s be real, based on everything we’ve seen from him, he’s not worth more than 11M a year…..if he’s even worth that.  Even his biggest supporters would agree that he’s not worth 13M per and he’s gtd to make more than that on the open market.  If he doesn’t improve, we should look for a new option……an option that won’t be extremely overpaid 

[Coach Tuesday]

Edmunds is EXACTLY the kind of player the Patriots would have traded away for premium picks during the Brady years - high potential but too expensive and too easy to replace.

 

I don't know that Beane will have the stones to trade Edmunds to some desperate franchise like the Giants or Cardinals for a 1st but that would be highly preferable to paying a big money extension for a player who too rarely makes a difference.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, LeGOATski said:

There's just so much hyperbole. It's the one everyone should remember, but they still claim they don't and that Edmunds has made zero plays. 🙄 I'm sure you loved that play against Miami where Edmunds beat 2 blockers to get to the RB behind the LOS. Do you even remember it? It was only 5 days ago.

 

 

He has 0 TFL this season.........so would saying he made a tackle behind the LOS qualify as hyperbole?   

 

Yes, yes it would.

 

Like I said........people want to characterize solid plays as game changing or "splash" plays.   They are not.   

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

First and foremost, the bolded part is absolutely not correct.  One of Edmunds most glaring problems is that he often leaves his gap responsibility when it looks like the play is away from it.   That leaves the gap wide open for cut backs.  Misdirection and cut back runners are huge problems for him.  Where he excels is scraping sideline to sideline.  As long as he can avoid his blocker he’s great at that.

 

As for his pass responsibilities, he is up and down there too.  Obviously he’s got that sideline to sideline speed to keep up with a RB, but that’s not exactly that difficult of a job.  The tough job his has is in underneath zone and he’s been a mixed bag there.

 

He has been too inconsistent in both phases of the game to warrant the contract he is in line for here.

It is correct, and you won't find many examples to support your theory outside a few times last season he was injured and having to deal with a center or guard downfield.

 

Do you really believe McDermott's defense relies on an inconsistent, up and down MLB and that he hasn't recognized the deficiency after four years? And by some miracle they're still performing at a high level? Don't overthink it.

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

So you know I am a fan of Edmunds and I agree, the bolded is true and the biggest leak in his game. It relates directly to the amount of space he's required to cover in his zone drops while being aware of receivers underneath or coming across his vision...part of the defense by design in nickle is to utilize his length in the MOF to add the extra DB BUT...he's still getting caught with his eyes in the backfield and savvy QBs  make him pay. Brady used to do it, Mahomes has been the one to take advantage of it recently. It's a very valid criticism.

 

However, in man coverage his responsibilities are typically the RB where Edmunds is very, very effective. I would guess that the poor passer rating in 2020 is due almost entirely to the zone looks where he was simply the closest defender to the receiver, because in man he is a very effective pass defender. If you watch when we are in a man look and the RB goes flat or wheel like here he basically wipes it out:

 

He does this consistently and at a high level. Being able to win 1v1 in pass coverage vs one of Brisset's reads there (you can see him look at the wheel route as the RB turns his head) allows them to bring a safety down into the box to cloud the crossers instead of leaving him high to help w the flat/wheel. That's one of the reasons we get the sack here.

 

Basically, Edmunds is a McDermott player through and through. He's cerebral and reliable to a fault: he's always in his Agap on run fits, always in his zone or man responsibilities in coverage. His athleticism is almost secondary to his reliability, strange as that may sound. Now is he perfect, clearly no. There is a lack of big play ability (some of which is due to his style which is admittedly conservative due to scheme, some would wrongly label it a lack of physicality), being too easily manipulated in zone as stated, and sometimes he will make a mistake or take a wrong angle but you'd be hard pressed to find an LB who doesn't. He is a great scheme fit MLB for this defense.

 

 

 

Edmunds definitely does some good things IN THIS SYSTEM.......that's why he's a top 10-12 type MLB in the NFL.

 

He's a lot like Tyrod Taylor at QB though...........Tyrod was elite at not turning the football over........before he got benched in 2016 he was about to QB a team to the fewest turnovers ever in a SB era season.    And like Edmunds he made a Pro Bowl,  deservedly,  in a year where only 2 of the top 8 QB's were in the AFC.

 

The thing was.........we all knew Taylor wasn't actually a great QB and that he left a ton of plays on the field.    You couldn't justify paying him top of the market, which was $30M per year.   But $15M on a bridge deal wasn't out of the question because he had lead some good offensive teams.    

 

The issue with Edmunds is that he's not going to be signed for half of what Darius Leonard signed for.    He probably doesn't even deserve Joe Schobert money, to be honest.   And most people on here have no idea who that is.   

[BarleyNY]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It is correct, and you won't find many examples to support your theory outside a few times last season he was injured and having to deal with a center or guard downfield.

 

Do you really believe McDermott's defense relies on an inconsistent, up and down MLB and that he hasn't recognized the deficiency after four years? And by some miracle they're still performing at a high level? Don't overthink it.

Well it’s only been happening the entire time he’s been here.

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It is correct, and you won't find many examples to support your theory outside a few times last season he was injured and having to deal with a center or guard downfield.

 

Do you really believe McDermott's defense relies on an inconsistent, up and down MLB and that he hasn't recognized the deficiency after four years? And by some miracle they're still performing at a high level? Don't overthink it.

And we’re paying Cody Ford, Daryl Williams and Jon Feliciano to protect Josh Allen.  Doesn’t mean that paying them was a good decision.  It just happened to be their decision. 
 

Eager to know how much you would be ok paying Edmunds per year and guaranteed if he plays similarly to how he played last season?  What’s he worth to you?