Josh Allen is looking a lot more like the 2019 version

[JohnNord]

If you take the 2nd quarter out of the mix yesterday, Allen ended up with a decent day.  

[Bangarang]

31 minutes ago, Tenhigh said:

We got our butts handed to us in the AFC Championship game on BOTH sides of the ball, on offense partly because our scheme was 1 dimensional.   If we can establish the threat of a real run game instead of just praying that Allen plays out of his mind, that opens this team up for a real shot at a championship.   It also makes Allen's life easier.

We got our butts handed to us because the o-line couldn’t block and the d-line couldn’t get pressure. That’s what actually happened. 

 

[Mikie2times]

10 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

No offense (see what I did there?  heh) but generally speaking when someone picks a non-standard grouping to analyze, it's a sign of cherrypicking data to prove a point.  Why not pick the last 4 regular season games, or the last 8 regular season games? 

 

I expect you could pick a couple 4 week windows in 2020 and argue that Josh Allen is looking like 2019 Josh Allen.

Try week 3-6 or week 4-8

 

 

 

I was targeting data to make Allen look bad? Use your eyes as a starting point. Exclude last year if you wish. Call it 2021 (yes only two games), but how many franchise QB's forget how to read the field for consecutive games? At least 3 consecutive if you get snug with data? Not relevant and overly fit when you can't make your progressions? He doesn't know where to go with the football right now. I put the issue just as much on Daboll as Josh. If we can develop a run game perhaps teams will stop treating us like the 90's Bills, maybe this time we decide to run Thurman. Right now teams have our offense mapped and we just keep walking right into it. It's a problem with Josh and Daboll and it is not a sample size issue. It will 100% continue unless something changes based on the nature of the problem.   

 

 

13 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You don't think the Baltimore, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and Miami defenses had anything to do with this?

 

Those were last year's #2, #3, #6 and #11 defenses. This year's opponents were #3 and #6. That's a very high level pair we've faced so far this year.

 

IMO the answers are simple, but not easy, to steal from Marv. Stop killing yourself with penalties. Figure out how to adapt to what they're doing to us. Play with discipline and attention to detail.

 

 

 

I suppose we shouldn't say the defense has excelled because they played two bottom third offenses going on three after Washington? That's not true. They really are this good. It doesn't work both ways 

 

 

 

Edited September 20, 2021 by KzooMike

[Hapless Bills Fan]

38 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

We got our butts handed to us because the o-line couldn’t block and the d-line couldn’t get pressure. That’s what actually happened. 

 

 

That's part of it, especially that last.  As far as the O-line, I would say Allen's aggressivness instead of taking what the D gave him and possibly the game plan (maybe by then it was too late for anything else) were strong contributors - not to be interpreted as saying the O-line wasn't a big factor, but I think the game plan and the read choices did  hang them out to dry a bit

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Just now, ScottLaw said:

Eh… Feliciano got ran over the entire game, regardless of Allen hanging onto the ball. 

 

If the Chiefs had to worry even a little bit about a run game and misdirection, Chris Jones couldn't pin his ears back and run over Feliciano.

 

If Allen were taking some of the short dump-offs, the ball would be gone before he got there.  I saw Singletary and sometimes Knox with enough green around them to plant a sod farm and harvest it.  Why?  Because it was on tape all season that Allen couldn't or wouldn't take those throws, so defend the guys he does seek.

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, NJKBillsfan said:

I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but is it possible that Allen was never really that good? Last year's schedule was pretty weak. Combine that with playing in front of no fans and I think it's entirely possible that last year could have been a fluke. 

 

 

 

 

 

I think 2019 is as low as Josh can go and that's good enough to certainly be a playoff QB. He's a talented player even when he's not making his reads. That said, I do think a lot is up for debate as far as if we just caught lightning in a bottle in 2020 and if he can be that type of player/we can be that type of offense. It's not as if teams were game planning for Josh outside of mobility last year, certainly not for the greatest show on turf offense. Teams blitzed us a lot last year, which is a huge mistake against Josh. It tips the coverage and minuses a defender that he usually matadors. He is being contained in the pocket. His sideline escape ropes are not as available. Teams are dropping a lot of players in coverage and using a base 4 man rush to sort of contain and crash the pocket. They aren't being as reckless with the rush. So far they are getting home. 

 

I think the solution is in the run game probably more than it is even Josh. I don't know if Josh was ever supposed to be like 2020. He's incredible out of playaction. It gives him natural timing. I posted this thread because you can see when a QB has a bad game or if it's a sign of something more serious in my opinion just based on how fast and decisive his reads are. Josh has been 100% indecisive thus far. Pat, pat, pat, back foot throw. Again, is it his fault if he's throwing into 7-8 players each down? Was the Daboll unbalanced air show supposed to last forever or does Josh and this team in general require more balance?  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

24 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

I was targeting data to make Allen look bad? Use your eyes as a starting point.

 

There are phenomena called "Recency Bias" and "Confirmation Bias" which are common fallacies.

 

The idea is that people have a conclusion, and then look for evidence that confirms their conclusion; they also look at what they've heard or seen recently, and weight it far more strongly than what they may have heard or seen in the past.

 

In other words, without context and care, our eyes can "trick" us.

 

I'm respectfully suggesting that may be at play here, at least to some extent.

 

 

[White Linen]

Daboll looks like Roman.

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

There are phenomena called "Recency Bias" and "Confirmation Bias" which are common fallacies.

 

The idea is that people have a conclusion, and then look for evidence that confirms their conclusion; they also look at what they've heard or seen recently, and weight it far more strongly than what they may have heard or seen in the past.

 

In other words, without context and care, our eyes can "trick" us.

 

I'm respectfully suggesting that may be at play here, at least to some extent.

 

 

We also have euphoria which often leads to disillusionment. I explained why I think this will last more than once. I don't want to be correct in that statement and I hope we don't see it play out that way. So I guess we really don't have much else to discuss on the topic. 

5 minutes ago, White Linen said:

Daboll looks like Roman.

Actually pretty funny you put it that way but I agree 100%. 

[CincyBillsFan]

2 hours ago, NJKBillsfan said:

I haven't seen this mentioned yet, but is it possible that Allen was never really that good? Last year's schedule was pretty weak. Combine that with playing in front of no fans and I think it's entirely possible that last year could have been a fluke. 

 

 

 

 

 

Last years schedule was weak?  Allen and the Bills were 3 - 1 against the NFC West with their only loss being the Hail Murry and Allen shined in all four games.

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

I have a feeling Allen won’t reach his peak until he’s like 33 years old.  He’s young and has a lot of sugar high still in him…age will naturally settle him down.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

15 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

I guess we will see when the all-22 comes out. But I am pretty sure I am right and you are only focusing on the misses. He made some poor throws, for sure. But I think we will see that he made some great ones and that the receivers were pretty much blanketed in tight man coverage all game. 
 

Overall, my sense is that it’s some rust by him (and the other offensive skill players) and the offensive coaches still trying to get into a groove. 

 

Glad to know I'm not the only one Jonesing for the all-22

 

[Bangarang]

3 hours ago, White Linen said:

Daboll looks like Roman.

In what way? 

[machine gun kelly]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Last years schedule was weak?  Allen and the Bills were 3 - 1 against the NFC West with their only loss being the Hail Murry and Allen shined in all four games.

 

 

I’m sure you know prior to the season strength of schedule comes out based on upcoming opponents and their records the prior year.  Last year prior to the entrance of the season, we had a SOS as 5th hardest in the NFL.  Post season looking back based on how these teams finished we had the 15th hardest SOS.  The reason these SOS are so marginal in importance is you can’t account fir injuries, etc. like the 49ers who lost so many key players just prior or in the beginning of the season.  They were in the darn SB the previous year.  We didn't have a weak schedule.

 

We had a middle of the pack schedule.  We played 6 of the top 10 defenses last year and beat all of them in the season or the playoffs.  I’ll agree Allen is off these first two games, but to rewrite last year as Allen was only good because he played easy teams is silly, and not true.  Bottom line is I haven’t read any real reason why Allen is off other than he’s in a slump for whatever reason.  It happens in baseball all the time.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 hours ago, KzooMike said:

We also have euphoria which often leads to disillusionment. I explained why I think this will last more than once. I don't want to be correct in that statement and I hope we don't see it play out that way. So I guess we really don't have much else to discuss on the topic.

 

Oh, for sure - preseason we were hearing a lot of "Josh Allen is God" "MVP" etc.  I could be wrong, though, but I don't think the euphoric now-disillusioned types are the ones who are over-the-top critical now.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 9/19/2021 at 6:40 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

He looks unsure of himself. Could be new defensive looks. Could be bad play calls. He's also missing throws he should make easily. Not panic mode but definitely one eyebrow raised.

 

I dunno about "unsure of himself" but he's definitely missing some throws he made last year.  And, he made several "bad decison" throws in the Miami game.

 

On the other hand I just re-watched and charted the 1st Q of the Dolphins game and I don't know where all these "wide open receivers" and "no pressure at all" I've seen some people talking about. 

 

I kind of feel like watching the first 2 Bills games is a "Rashoman" viewing where different people are watching the same game and coming away with different accounts, all of which we feel very certain about.
 

Here's my breakdown of the first half:

1Q passes:  8.  4 complete - 3 no pressure, 1 pressure

                         4 incomplete: 2 poor throws - one high to a covered Diggs (no pressure), one a poor decision that was damned near picked (strong pressure, hit as he threw).  2 throw-aways under pressure                    

                        

So of the 8 passes, there was 1 that he should have completed and didn't

There was 1 poor decision that he should have hung on to or thrown away and didn't.

 

2Q passes: 8.  3 complete,  quick short passes

                        4 incomplete:  1 throwaway under pressure.  1 batted pass under pressure.  1 pass thrown high with enough time, 1 rushed throw

                        1 interception - threw slightly behind Diggs. 

 

So of the 8 passes, there was 1 that he should have completed and didn't and 1 poor decision (the INT).  There were 3 throw aways/bats/rushed throws.

 

Total in the first half: 2 passes he should have completed - had time and an open man - and didn't, 2  poor decisions under pressure one resulting in a pick.  4 throw-aways/batted balls under pressure.

 

IMO we would never have seen the throw-aways in 2018 and seldom in 2019.  We would also not have seen the quick short completions.

Last year out of 16 passes, I would say there were 2, maybe 3, he would have hit last year that he missed Sunday.  So instead of 7/16, we would have seen 9/16 or 10/16 which is better, but nowhere near last year's completion percentage.

 

Is there room for improvement and need for improvement?  Yes. But am I seeing  OMG he's got lots of time and he's just missing guys right and left? No.

 

Another telling stat: I looked up the "Pocket Time" stat in Pro Football Reference Advanced Stats.  They define this as average time the QB had in the pocket between snap and throw, or snap and collapse of the pocket.

In 2020: 2.6 seconds

So far in 2021: 1.2 seconds

I think it's possible that may have something to do with what we're seeing.

 

                        

PS this is  a total PITA to do with the new GamePass interface that doesn't list the plays so I cant just click and go to that play.  Grrrr.

 

 

[Scott7975]

6 hours ago, NJKBillsfan said:

Wouldn't you have to watch the game film to know for sure? 

The Raiders just put up 26 on Pittsburgh.

 

Can we stop with the excuses? 

What gives you so much confidence that he'll turn it around?

 

That wasn't the same Pittsburg defense.

[Tenhigh]

11 hours ago, Bangarang said:

We got our butts handed to us because the o-line couldn’t block and the d-line couldn’t get pressure. That’s what actually happened. 

 

Partly, yes.  The fact that we put up no pretense of a running game didn't help either. 

[njbuff]

Simple.

 

Allen has a bullseye on his back.

 

If you think Allen is struggling, look no further than to Cole Beasley, who has, shockingly, struggled to get open.

 

I’m not panicked in the least.

[CincyBillsFan]

8 hours ago, NJKBillsfan said:

Look at the last 6 games.

Chargers 7-9

49ers 6-10

Denver 5-11

Pittsburgh  Was completely falling apart at the end of the year

And Miami and the Pats weren't great. 

Miami was 10 - 6 and the Pats are the Pats. 

 

And when talking about the entire season there are more then the last 6 games.

 

Also a team may be bad but still have a very good defense - like Denver & SF.

 

As I recall both the Rams & Seahawks were very good playoff teams that Allen eviscerated.