McDermott Historically Not the Best on Opening Day, But Don't Worry

[theRalph]

As the Bills HC, McDermott is now 3 - 2 in openers (including this loss) and 9 - 4 over the first three games since 2017.  McDermott's opening day wins have all come against Jet teams that finished 14 - 34 (.292) those seasons. Opening day losses (including the Steelers and using their 2020 record of 11-5) were against teams that finished 21 - 11 (.656). This makes his 2017 - 2020 .750 in openers — now .600, including this current loss — look suspect when the three wins came against the Jets (including coming back from 16 down in 2019!) and the 2018 Ravens dropped 47 on the one-field-goal-Bills. 

 

On the other hand, McDermott recovers nicely in Games 2 and 3, where wins were against teams with a cumulative record of 39-56-1 (.419) The losses came against teams with a cumulative record of 23-9 (.719). McDermott is currently .750 in Games 2 and 3 — versus competition that finished .488.  Looking at Games 4 - 16, wins were against teams with a cumulative record of .428 and losses came against teams with a cumulative record of .599. Overall, McDermott is .557 in games 4 - 16 versus .504.

 

There is an argument that McDermott is not the best opening day coach...but one of the best at adjusting thereafter. 

 

Of the 110 Super Bowl teams, 20 have lost their opener — and in a number of cases a few more early games. 

 

 

Edited September 15, 2021 by theRalph
clarity

[MJS]

I think the trend of the Bills getting off to a slow start is a strong one. We luckily faces a poor jets team multiple times which still allowed us to pull out wins despite the poor showing.

 

I fully expect the Bills to get better as the season goes on.

[billybrew1]

47 minutes ago, theRalph said:

As the Bills HC, McDermott is now 3 - 2 in openers (including this loss) and 9 - 4 over the first three games since 2017.  McDermott's opening day wins have all come against Jet teams that finished 14 - 34 (.292) those seasons. Opening day losses (including the Steelers and using their 2020 record of 11-5) were against teams that finished 21 - 11 (.656). This makes his 2017 - 2020 .750 in openers — now .600, including this current loss — look suspect when the three wins came against the Jets (including coming back from 16 down in 2019!) and the 2018 Ravens dropped 47 on the one-field-goal-Bills. 

 

On the other hand, McDermott recovers nicely in Games 2 and 3, where wins were against teams with a cumulative record of 39-56-1 (.419) The losses came against teams with a cumulative record of 23-9 (.719). McDermott is currently .750 in Games 2 and 3 — versus competition that finished .488.  Looking at Games 4 - 16, wins were against teams with a cumulative record of .428 and losses came against teams with a cumulative record of .599. Overall, McDermott is .557 in games 4 - 16 versus .504.

 

There is an argument that McDermott is not the best opening day coach...but one of the best at adjusting thereafter. 

 

Of the 110 Super Bowl teams, 20 have lost their opener — and in a number of cases a few more early games. 

 

 

Ah go on, this simply is too small of sample to draw anything valuable. He created his team over the last four years. It was a build. You can't draw conclusions from a build.

 

BTW, the build is not done. In fact, next season may see a fairly big turnover.

I know this season holds a ton of promise and that that's the reason there are no articles about next season, but I find next season fascinating with so many huge contracts coming off the books. And while Allen's huge big money doesn't kick in yet.

It might be next season, that we truly go for it.

We probably have enough money to attract someone in FA that could have a high impact plus we have nine picks in next year's draft. I'm really hoping we really hit on the 2020 and 2021 drafts and that they really lift us up next year.  I also think all nine picks from next year's draft make it if they're actually drafted and I think they will be and if we hit reasonable players with all nine. My point is, next season is a rebuild year..... We keep Allen, Diggs, Dion Dawkins and White, Milano and Edmunds, Daryl Williams And Feliciano.....and perhaps get rid of Hughes, Star, Addison to name a few big contracts that perhaps are running out of gas.... We have to decide about Ed O....IDK, the team might be quite a bit different.... We really gotta nail this upcoming draft!

 

Go Bills!

[Paup 1995MVP]

12 minutes ago, billybrew1 said:

Ah go on, this simply is too small of sample to draw anything valuable. He created his team over the last four years. It was a build. You can't draw conclusions from a build.

 

BTW, the build is not done. In fact, next season may see a fairly big turnover.

I know this season holds a ton of promise and that that's the reason there are no articles about next season, but I find next season fascinating with so many huge contracts coming off the books. And while Allen's huge big money doesn't kick in yet.

It might be next season, that we truly go for it.

We probably have enough money to attract someone in FA that could have a high impact plus we have nine picks in next year's draft. I'm really hoping we really hit on the 2020 and 2021 drafts and that they really lift us up next year.  I also think all nine picks from next year's draft make it if they're actually drafted and I think they will be and if we hit reasonable players with all nine. My point is, next season is a rebuild year..... We keep Allen, Diggs, Dion Dawkins and White, Milano and Edmunds, Daryl Williams And Feliciano.....and perhaps get rid of Hughes, Star, Addison to name a few big contracts that perhaps are running out of gas.... We have to decide about Ed O....IDK, the team might be quite a bit different.... We really gotta nail this upcoming draft!

 

Go Bills!

We need another starting caliber CB, and some O lineman who are tough and talented.  

[Patrick Duffy]

38 minutes ago, Paup 1995MVP said:

We need another starting caliber CB, and some O lineman who are tough and talented.  

I think S. Brown might turn out to be good 

[SCBills]

I’ve always been torn about whether I’d rather face a tough team or easy team on opening day, as they can be wildly unpredictable.  
 

Would I rather have a loss to one of the tougher teams on our schedule opening day (for our style at least) in the Steelers?

 

or

 

Have a loss to one of the easier, albeit road games, like the Ravens have with their Raiders L?

 

Of course, the flip side has been our almost assuredly 1-0 starts with the Jets.  
 

 

Edited September 15, 2021 by SCBills

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

He’s bad at halftime adjustments too 

[LeGOATski]

I think this is part of the process.

 

Failure towards the beginning of the season is a good thing. Like Josh said in his presser, you learn more from failure and its better to get those lessons in early.

[Thurman#1]

I politely disagree.

 

There's not much to analyze there, not when you're only able to look at five games, and they went 3-2 in those games. That's as close to no pattern as you can get in five games without having a tie involved.

 

You're right the Jets were involved, but that only means that there's even less useful data. You can only play who you're scheduled. We lost two of the first three, when we were a bad team in the process of a rebuild. Won two of the last three when we're a good team.

 

No real info there. We did what we were expected to do up until this year.

[Thurman#1]

5 hours ago, billybrew1 said:

Ah go on, this simply is too small of sample to draw anything valuable. He created his team over the last four years. It was a build. You can't draw conclusions from a build.

 

BTW, the build is not done. In fact, next season may see a fairly big turnover.

I know this season holds a ton of promise and that that's the reason there are no articles about next season, but I find next season fascinating with so many huge contracts coming off the books. And while Allen's huge big money doesn't kick in yet.

It might be next season, that we truly go for it.

We probably have enough money to attract someone in FA that could have a high impact plus we have nine picks in next year's draft. I'm really hoping we really hit on the 2020 and 2021 drafts and that they really lift us up next year.  I also think all nine picks from next year's draft make it if they're actually drafted and I think they will be and if we hit reasonable players with all nine. My point is, next season is a rebuild year..... We keep Allen, Diggs, Dion Dawkins and White, Milano and Edmunds, Daryl Williams And Feliciano.....and perhaps get rid of Hughes, Star, Addison to name a few big contracts that perhaps are running out of gas.... We have to decide about Ed O....IDK, the team might be quite a bit different.... We really gotta nail this upcoming draft!

 

Go Bills!

 

 

Next year, we have about $20M left on the cap. $20.39M, to be specific. (Spotrac) 23rd in the league. We are not going to be able to do much about bringing in FAs next year.

 

If those three guys you mentioned, (and it's an if, especially with Star), are off the team, we would soar all the way up to $24.6M. That would vault us all the way up from 23rd to, oh, um, still 23rd. And if they're gone, those three, they would need to replace probably two of the three if they carry one less DL next year.

 

Beane has shown he's an intelligent handler of cap, conservative and he will keep money available for the future. But the COVID cap cuts came at the worst possible time for this team, leaving us with little money to work with in the last two years before Josh's major cap hits start.

Edited September 16, 2021 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Next year, we have about $20M left on the cap. $20.39M, to be specific. (Spotrac) 23rd in the league. We are not going to be able to do much about bringing in FAs next year.

 

If those three guys you mentioned, (and it's an if, especially with Star), are off the team, we would soar all the way up to $24.6M. That would vault us all the way up from 23rd to, oh, um, still 23rd. And if they're gone, those three, they would need to replace probably two of the three if they carry one less DL next year.

 

Beane has shown he's an intelligent handler of cap, conservative and he will keep money available for the future. But the COVID cap cuts came at the worst possible time for this team, leaving us with little money to work with in the last two years before Josh's major cap hits start.

 

Unless the guard play significantly improves on what we saw on Sunday as the season rolls on they need to go and find the best guard available in free agency, sign him, pay him, and kick the can if necessary. 

[Malazan]

13 hours ago, theRalph said:

As the Bills HC, McDermott is now 3 - 2 in openers (including this loss) and 9 - 4 over the first three games since 2017.  McDermott's opening day wins have all come against Jet teams that finished 14 - 34 (.292) those seasons. Opening day losses (including the Steelers and using their 2020 record of 11-5) were against teams that finished 21 - 11 (.656). This makes his 2017 - 2020 .750 in openers — now .600, including this current loss — look suspect when the three wins came against the Jets (including coming back from 16 down in 2019!) and the 2018 Ravens dropped 47 on the one-field-goal-Bills. 

 

On the other hand, McDermott recovers nicely in Games 2 and 3, where wins were against teams with a cumulative record of 39-56-1 (.419) The losses came against teams with a cumulative record of 23-9 (.719). McDermott is currently .750 in Games 2 and 3 — versus competition that finished .488.  Looking at Games 4 - 16, wins were against teams with a cumulative record of .428 and losses came against teams with a cumulative record of .599. Overall, McDermott is .557 in games 4 - 16 versus .504.

 

There is an argument that McDermott is not the best opening day coach...but one of the best at adjusting thereafter. 

 

Of the 110 Super Bowl teams, 20 have lost their opener — and in a number of cases a few more early games. 

 

I've been under the impression that McDermott his staff struggle when they don't have good tape. McDermott is a preparation guy. He prepares for as much as possible and when he gets tape of a team from in season, he's good. The first game is always a crapshoot of what's changed and I think that makes it harder to prepare. 

[DCbillsfan]

51 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Unless the guard play significantly improves on what we saw on Sunday as the season rolls on they need to go and find the best guard available in free agency, sign him, pay him, and kick the can if necessary. 

This.  The IOL of the Bills is getting exposed the last few games.  Sign a free agent guard and draft a C/G high in next year's draft.

[BuffaloBillyG]

13 hours ago, theRalph said:

As the Bills HC, McDermott is now 3 - 2 in openers (including this loss) and 9 - 4 over the first three games since 2017.  McDermott's opening day wins have all come against Jet teams that finished 14 - 34 (.292) those seasons. Opening day losses (including the Steelers and using their 2020 record of 11-5) were against teams that finished 21 - 11 (.656). This makes his 2017 - 2020 .750 in openers — now .600, including this current loss — look suspect when the three wins came against the Jets (including coming back from 16 down in 2019!) and the 2018 Ravens dropped 47 on the one-field-goal-Bills. 

 

On the other hand, McDermott recovers nicely in Games 2 and 3, where wins were against teams with a cumulative record of 39-56-1 (.419) The losses came against teams with a cumulative record of 23-9 (.719). McDermott is currently .750 in Games 2 and 3 — versus competition that finished .488.  Looking at Games 4 - 16, wins were against teams with a cumulative record of .428 and losses came against teams with a cumulative record of .599. Overall, McDermott is .557 in games 4 - 16 versus .504.

 

There is an argument that McDermott is not the best opening day coach...but one of the best at adjusting thereafter. 

 

Of the 110 Super Bowl teams, 20 have lost their opener — and in a number of cases a few more early games. 

 

 

Truly amazing how 1 game can change a narrative. Prior to the Steelers game, using your figures this is where he was.

 

3-1 in openers

 

9-3 over 1st 3 games since '17. And as you pointed out the loss was to the Ravens in a year they started out with Peterman at QB and a ridiculous amount in dead cap. He's done all that while almost completely turning over the roster and needing to figure out what he has one opening day as well as what the other teams was doing.

 

That's actually not bad at all. 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Unless the guard play significantly improves on what we saw on Sunday as the season rolls on they need to go and find the best guard available in free agency, sign him, pay him, and kick the can if necessary. 

What are the odds if our guard play doesn’t pick up mid season, we move Williams to guard and Brown to RT?  Is that type of move you can make during a season?

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

What are the odds if our guard play doesn’t pick up mid season, we move Williams to guard and Brown to RT?  Is that type of move you can make during a season?

 

Possible, sure depending on Brown's development. I have to say though in Carolina Williams was a RT only. When he played elsewhere on the line his play was substantially worse. 

[theRalph]

6 hours ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Truly amazing how 1 game can change a narrative. Prior to the Steelers game, using your figures this is where he was.

 

3-1 in openers

 

9-3 over 1st 3 games since '17. And as you pointed out the loss was to the Ravens in a year they started out with Peterman at QB and a ridiculous amount in dead cap. He's done all that while almost completely turning over the roster and needing to figure out what he has one opening day as well as what the other teams was doing.

 

That's actually not bad at all.

The 3 are all against the Jitz. That's sort of the point...

[Success]

At the risk of naming he who should not be named - Belichick & his teams have generally been slow starters, even during some of their better Brady years.

 

Sorry.  But it's true.

 

[theRalph]

18 hours ago, Rock-A-Bye Beasley said:

He’s bad at halftime adjustments too 

With the long walks to and from the dressing room and only 12 minutes of halftime, I understand that very few teams make "halftime" adjustments. With the available cams, staffs should and do make adjustments throughout the game.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, theRalph said:

The 3 are all against the Jitz. That's sort of the point...

As much as fans want to think so there are no "easy" wins in the NFL. Yes, there are games that play out that way. However the preparation, game planning and (as we saw just last weekend) execution still matter. 

 

Those games against the Jets, they still had to plan, prepare and play against a team the overhauls it's personell and signs star players almost on a yearly occurring basis. Same effort, intelligence and planning have to take effect. In thpse games he was 3-0. 

 

My point of it being amazing how 1 game can change a narrative can be shown another way. Hypothetically, the Bills beat the Steelers last weekend. Here's the narrative:

 

"McD is almost unbeatable on opening weekend. 4-1!!! The only time he lost was when we were retooling the roster, started Nate Peterman and had Kelvin Benjamin as WR1. Belichick or Lombardi couldn't even win under those conditions. Those days are sure over!"