Home field advantage for the playoffs - road to the SB

[LabattBlue]

After the last two CLE vs. KC games, I think all Browns fans, along with Bills fans will agree.  If you want to make it to the SB, the road cannot go through KC.

 

In fact, my three key points for the Bills to make the SB are...

 

1 - home field advantage...as mentioned above

 

2 - much improved pass rush

 

3 - Josh takes another step up from last season

[MPL]

“Playoffs? Don’t talk about? playoffs?! You kidding me? Playoffs?! I just hope we can win a game!" - All Bills fans this morning

[FilthyBeast]

9 minutes ago, BTB said:

After the last two CLE vs. KC games, I think all Browns fans, along with Bills fans will agree.  If you want to make it to the SB, the road cannot go through KC.

 

In fact, my three key points for the Bills to make the SB are...

 

1 - home field advantage...as mentioned above

 

2 - much improved pass rush

 

3 - Josh takes another step up from last season

 

This is why some fans are truly underestimating the impact of yesterday's loss......not only did they lose at home to a team that I really don't believe is going to be an upper echelon contender this year, but they are already behind the eight ball for landing the only 1st round playoff bye and home field throughout the playoffs.

 

Sure the Bills may win their next 10 in a row including the game in KC and seize control of the #1 seed but it's highly unlikely given this teams flaws that were exposed yesterday and the Chiefs are probably not losing more than 3 total games this year even if they drop one to the Bills.

 

Bottom line, yesterday's game was one that fans and pundits alike had penciled in for a win because they did in fact assume the Bills are a SB contender. And SB contenders find a way to win this type of game in their home field no matter how hard the opponent hits you (see Chiefs/Browns yesterday).

[Marv's Neighbor]

Both Cleveland & us lost conference games yesterday.  They could matter a lot at the end of the season, if tie breakers are involved. 

[LabattBlue]

26 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

This is why some fans are truly underestimating the impact of yesterday's loss......not only did they lose at home to a team that I really don't believe is going to be an upper echelon contender this year, but they are already behind the eight ball for landing the only 1st round playoff bye and home field throughout the playoffs.

 

Sure the Bills may win their next 10 in a row including the game in KC and seize control of the #1 seed but it's highly unlikely given this teams flaws that were exposed yesterday and the Chiefs are probably not losing more than 3 total games this year even if they drop one to the Bills.

 

Bottom line, yesterday's game was one that fans and pundits alike had penciled in for a win because they did in fact assume the Bills are a SB contender. And SB contenders find a way to win this type of game in their home field no matter how hard the opponent hits you (see Chiefs/Browns yesterday).

Yep! 

[Milanos Milano]

This is the main reason I’m upset over the game. Tired of playing 2nd fiddle to KC. 

[teef]

Just now, IronMaidenBills said:

This is the main reason I’m upset over the game. Tired of playing 2nd fiddle to KC. 

it's been one year.

[Milanos Milano]

Just now, teef said:

it's been one year.

About to be 2 at the rate we are going. Just win. I still believe in Allen and team, but Daboll is on my mental hot seat. 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

I think it's just as likely that this team wins a Super Bowl after taking a road journey through the playoffs. It might even be more likely with this team's DNA.

 

 

[teef]

2 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

I think it's just as likely that this team wins a Super Bowl after taking a road journey through the playoffs. It might even be more likely with this team's DNA.

 

 

Trying far too hard now. 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

1 minute ago, teef said:

Trying far too hard now. 

Lighten up.

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

This is why some fans are truly underestimating the impact of yesterday's loss......not only did they lose at home to a team that I really don't believe is going to be an upper echelon contender this year, but they are already behind the eight ball for landing the only 1st round playoff bye and home field throughout the playoffs.

 

Sure the Bills may win their next 10 in a row including the game in KC and seize control of the #1 seed but it's highly unlikely given this teams flaws that were exposed yesterday and the Chiefs are probably not losing more than 3 total games this year even if they drop one to the Bills.

 

Bottom line, yesterday's game was one that fans and pundits alike had penciled in for a win because they did in fact assume the Bills are a SB contender. And SB contenders find a way to win this type of game in their home field no matter how hard the opponent hits you (see Chiefs/Browns yesterday).

The Bills were not just beaten by KC twice last year, we were outclassed.

 

Unless that changes in week 5, we don't need to worry about a Super Bowl berth.

 

If the road doesn't literally go through KC the city this year, it will go through KC the team, who is going to be playing in the AFC championship game again this year almost certainly.

 

If you can't compete with them, why bother with various SB scenarios?

 

You can see why Week 5 is, for me, by far, the most anticipated game of the season.

 

 

 

 

[Big Blitz]

16 minutes ago, teef said:

it's been one year.

 

 

That's fantastic lolol

[FilthyBeast]

3 minutes ago, Nextmanup said:

The Bills were not just beaten by KC twice last year, we were outclassed.

 

Unless that changes in week 5, we don't need to worry about a Super Bowl berth.

 

If the road doesn't literally go through KC the city this year, it will go through KC the team, who is going to be playing in the AFC championship game again this year almost certainly.

 

If you can't compete with them, why bother with various SB scenarios?

 

You can see why Week 5 is, for me, by far, the most anticipated game of the season.

 

 

 

 

 

This is also a valid point, even if we were to finish with the #1 overall seed in the AFC and get the Chiefs at home there's no evidence yet to suggest that we will beat them or even hang with them even at home.

 

This is why this team really needs to use the next three weeks as 'get right' type of games and presumably beat up on lessor teams to set up the right level of confidence heading into KC for a primetime game because anybody that says it's just another game is kidding themselves. This whole team, coaching staff, etc know they have to go in there and have a good showing and you really wonder if they are already looking ahead in some ways thinking that these first four games were all going to be a cakewalk.

[The Frankish Reich]

Home field advantage ain't what it used to be. In fact, it's barely there at all*

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

 

From 2002 to 2018, home teams won at least 56 percent of the time during all but two seasons, and in three seasons won at least 60 percent.

In various ways, effects of those factors have dissipated. In the past three years, home teams have not cracked a 52 percent winning percentage. More than half of this season’s playoff teams — the Bengals, Patriots, Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Cardinals and 49ers — posted a better record on the road than at home. The Cardinals averaged seven points fewer in Arizona than they did on the road, and finished with a losing record at home. So did the Eagles, who allowed 2.6 points per drive at home, the second-worst mark in the NFL. So, too, did the Patriots, who hadn’t had a losing record at home since Bill Belichick’s first year as coach in 2000. The 12th man needs to watch the film and regroup.

 

*possible exception for Lambeau

Edited January 14, 2022 by The Frankish Reich

[Rampage]

10 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Home field advantage ain't what it used to be. In fact, it's barely there at all*

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/01/14/nfl-home-field-advantage-pandemic/

 

From 2002 to 2018, home teams won at least 56 percent of the time during all but two seasons, and in three seasons won at least 60 percent.

In various ways, effects of those factors have dissipated. In the past three years, home teams have not cracked a 52 percent winning percentage. More than half of this season’s playoff teams — the Bengals, Patriots, Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles, Rams, Cardinals and 49ers — posted a better record on the road than at home. The Cardinals averaged seven points fewer in Arizona than they did on the road, and finished with a losing record at home. So did the Eagles, who allowed 2.6 points per drive at home, the second-worst mark in the NFL. So, too, did the Patriots, who hadn’t had a losing record at home since Bill Belichick’s first year as coach in 2000. The 12th man needs to watch the film and regroup.

 

*possible exception for Lambeau

I think travel, accommodation and sport science has advanced so much to the point where road games aren't putting as much of a strain on these players like it used to. Most of them are used to raucous college football crowds as well, which in most cases trumps the NFL atmosphere so crowd noise isn't as much of a factor as you would think.

[The Frankish Reich]

1 minute ago, Rampage said:

I think travel, accommodation and sport science has advanced so much to the point where road games aren't putting as much of a strain on these players like it used to. Most of them are used to raucous college football crowds as well, which in most cases trumps the NFL atmosphere so crowd noise isn't as much of a factor as you would think.

Agreed. It may be paywalled, but a lot of the article focuses on the same factors (sports science on travel, etc.) you cite.

The long term trend toward the NFL being a TV product continues. Ratings are up sharply. It may be sacrilege here, but for people who really want to enjoy the game itself (not the tailgating fan-bonding experience), football is far better on a big screen at home. My rough approximation of what sports are better in person vs. on TV, from "in person best" to "can't beat TV" --

1. Hockey. TV never does it justice.

2. Basketball IF you've got good seats. A whole different live experience.

3. Baseball. Because it just means warm summer nights and a kind of "choose your experience" thing - sit up close and watch pitches break. Tour the concourse and find a bar area for a few innings. Sit above the bullpens and watch the whole late-game ritual. Sit in the cheap seats just to enjoy the evening.

4. Football. The action will be far away from you most of the time.

[Nextmanup]

I've been mentioning that there is no home filed advantage in the NFL, for at least the last 3 seasons, all over this board for a long time! 

 

No such thing as "momentum" or "trap games" and lots of other fan supported nonsense either.

 

I agree with the OP that we STILL don't want our path to the SB to go through KC!

 

Disagree Josh needs to "take another step."  He just needs to play at or near the top of his game as it's been for the last couple of seasons.  Has to have good games in all the games.

 

Improved pass rush would certainly help, but I think defensive backfield coverage is more important.

 

 

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, Nextmanup said:

I've been mentioning that there is no home filed advantage in the NFL, for at least the last 3 seasons, all over this board for a long time! 

 

No such thing as "momentum" or "trap games" and lots of other fan supported nonsense either.

 

I agree with the OP that we STILL don't want our path to the SB to go through KC!

 

Disagree Josh needs to "take another step."  He just needs to play at or near the top of his game as it's been for the last couple of seasons.  Has to have good games in all the games.

 

Improved pass rush would certainly help, but I think defensive backfield coverage is more important.

 

 

 

Bills' last two seasons in the playoffs: 2-0 at home, 0-2 on the road....

Edited January 14, 2022 by billsfan1959