Hypothetical: Do the Bills win if we give Singletary 25 carries?

[BarleyNY]

49 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

That adjustment can help open up things though.  If they're bringing LB's and S's closer to the LOS, you can create space behind them.  I think we were shocked with how much zone they ran, and how much pressure they got simply with their front 4.  This team blitzed and manned up a year ago, and we came in with a game plan of spreading them out to create mismatches.  Instead they sat in zones and tackled really well.

 

Pittsburgh blitzed once, and pressured allen 20 times.  There were some screen calls, but not enough imo - I know allen missed beasely on the one, but I'd have liked to see more here.  Buffalo ran 8 PA plays total in the game.  Play action can create space in the zones.  Missed opportunity there as well. 

In theory, sure.  I haven’t rewatched the game yet (barf) so I might get a better feel after that, but I don’t think it would’ve been enough even if it did work.  And it here is no guarantee that it would have.  One of the disadvantages of play action is that it takes longer to get a pass off.  That could’ve just as easily backfired since Allen already didn’t have much time.  The main issues were that the Steelers were handily winning the LOS battle and Allen wasn’t consistently hitting his passes.  Oh, and there was definitely some questionable coaching.  Don’t get me wrong, in retrospect it wouldn’t have hurt for them to have tried your suggestions.  After all, what they did didn’t work, but it would be way down the list of why they lost IMO. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, BarleyNY said:

In theory, sure.  I haven’t rewatched the game yet (barf) so I might get a better feel after that, but I don’t think it would’ve been enough even if it did work.  And it here is no guarantee that it would have.  One of the disadvantages of play action is that it takes longer to get a pass off.  That could’ve just as easily backfired since Allen already didn’t have much time.  The main issues were that the Steelers were handily winning the LOS battle and Allen wasn’t consistently hitting his passes.  Oh, and there was definitely some questionable coaching.  Don’t get me wrong, in retrospect it wouldn’t have hurt for them to have tried your suggestions.  After all, what they did didn’t work, but it would be way down the list of why they lost IMO. 

 

Yea, definitely a consideration.  But on the other hand, it creates gaps in the zones that they needed. 

[DrPJax]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Singletary's a very good back. Not a bell cow, but he can be a #1 back, which is why he is one and why he was one his rookie year as well.

 

And you're exaggerating about his catch percentage. His two seasons he's never averaged below 70%. Totalled around 72.9, and improved last year to 76%. Daying he will probably catch 60 - 75% is misleading. It's true, but actually he will probably catch 70 - 75%, which isn't awful, though it's not great either.

 

If he wasn't a threat he wouldn't have killed them on those two runs late, and he wouldn't have averaged 6.5 YPC, and he wouldn't be averaging 4.8 YPC for his career.

 

 

 

I really appreciate your points.  I was just gut guessing on his catch percentage  , I was off a few points but he has shown a propensity at clutch times( nit counting preseason) , like the KC game , to drop balls at critical times and he has also had ball security issues.  Two fumbles that likely went out of bounds is not indicative of a 1 back.  Coukd he improve, yes, but time is ticking on him. If either of those fumbles is lost he would be benched. We can tolerate jish fumbling cuz he is your franchise about, but like I saidrb is not valued much now inthe NFL in the sense that many teams move on quickly and motor was only a 3 rd round draft pick. Also runs are situational.  His ypa were up because of the runs in essentially garbage time.  Pitt was in a soft zone and willing to give up yardage for time off the clock. It’s like a receiver padding stats when the team is down 3 scores in the 4 th.   Look at his stats in the first half, he had around 5 carries and I don’t remember any 10-15 yard runs then. I will say the o line played terribly and he was hit in the backfield. Still doesn’t excuse his fumble propensity and what about his lack of situational awareness when he failed to step out of bounds and the clock kept running.  Again, 1 backs don’t make poor decisions like that. It’s not just one thing, but several things that are beginning to add up. You usually also can use your 1 back for short  and goal line situations.   If the Bills are scratching healthy backs, your “1” is going to have to be more consistent and keep josh from having to pick up yards.  You signed him as your franchise QB now , lots of $ involved , so that commitment needs protection. RB 1 has to produce or it’s time to go to moss , which was happening before he got hurt. 
 

I’m not saying  motor is bad or not NFL caliber  , I am saying he lacks consistency AT THIS POINT, And just pulling out a single stat like ypc can be misleading. Wade has a good ypc avg based on his few carries, that doesn’t make him a”1”  back! Lol !    He is a better runner , average pass catcher, who needs to take away that fear of him putting the ball on the ground.  He could do all those , but I think he needs some very productive games soon or he may be behind Moss and gone next year. He can have some great flashes, I just wish that felt confident and not anxious when he gets reps.  He really needs better o line play which is out of his control. 

[3rdand12]

On 9/13/2021 at 11:17 AM, bmur66 said:

Has Singletary ever got that many carries in a Bills game?

Moss was a healthy scratch, Gee  think Daboll is going to pass much ?
get the run game going please. and stop the fancy dancy crap

[PromoTheRobot]

No. We lose by even more because the PIT front 7 would eat him alive. He only racked up yards late because the Steelers were selling out for the pass.

[quinnearlysghost88]

12 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

No. We lose by even more because the PIT front 7 would eat him alive. He only racked up yards late because the Steelers were selling out for the pass.

So they weren’t selling out for the pass the other 51 plays? That makes no sense. When you have a balanced run/pass, the defense has to guess more. When you throw 51 times, every play is selling out for the pass, regardless of the score. Running would’ve been effective in any quarter. And if their front 7 stacked the box then you throw. That’s 101. 

[Alphadawg7]

On 9/13/2021 at 8:16 AM, MAJBobby said:

My bad monday and math never good. 

 

But 25 total runs is right about where I want to be

Not when 10 of those runs are not RBs.  15 carries for our RBs is terrible, especially when our RB is averaging over 6ypc.

 

More importantly Daboll MUST STOP this utter garbage of having Josh take off on the snap up the middle on these RPOs.  He is not a RB, he is not Lamar.  He is a passing QB who can be lethal with his legs when the play breaks down, he’s extending the play, etc.  we don’t need him running up the middle off the snap for 4 yards 9 times a game into a crowded box.  
 

Josh should really only have most his runs come from 3 scenarios:  Designed rollouts where the option to pass is there, QB sneaks, or when the play breaks down from either pass rush or no ones open.  
 

Josh Allen is the next Steve Young not the next Cam Newton.  How the hell Daboll can’t get that through his thick skull is mind blowing.  Stop running these stupid RPOs, not only is he not very dangerous as a runnner in that scenario, he is also a fumble liability and higher injury risk.

[MJS]

I just don't think our oline could handle the Steelers dline. I don't believe running it more would have been a significant difference. The times we have played the Steelers the past couple of years has been a defensive slug fest. The difference has been capitalizing on mistakes from the other team.

 

I think if we play them again, for instance in the playoffs this year, the approach should change to short passes and check downs, as well as screens. Draws in the run game. Just anything to get the ball out quickly. Sustain long drives. Take points when they come and focus on taking care of the football. The Steelers aren't our best matchup.

[PromoTheRobot]

3 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

So they weren’t selling out for the pass the other 51 plays? That makes no sense. When you have a balanced run/pass, the defense has to guess more. When you throw 51 times, every play is selling out for the pass, regardless of the score. Running would’ve been effective in any quarter. And if their front 7 stacked the box then you throw. That’s 101. 

 

The Steeler's defense was unbelievable that day. There were holes that were open at handoff that suddenly closed because one player shot in like a rocket. The pass rush was relentless and the secondary was all over the receivers. I was way up high in Sec 336 so I had an all-22 view and I kept thinking " no one is open!" It's like they knew every play we would run.

[quinnearlysghost88]

45 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

The Steeler's defense was unbelievable that day. There were holes that were open at handoff that suddenly closed because one player shot in like a rocket. The pass rush was relentless and the secondary was all over the receivers. I was way up high in Sec 336 so I had an all-22 view and I kept thinking " no one is open!" It's like they knew every play we would run.

They sat in nickel all day. 

[Simon Says]

On 9/13/2021 at 11:09 AM, quinnearlysghost88 said:

He averaged 6.5 yards on 11 carries. How much does another 14 carries change the game? 
 

Personally, Josh throwing 51 times isn’t sustainable, and we did him zero favors by not establishing the run. 

25 carries isnt sustainable, either 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Funny on WGR this week where they interview Adam Begnini and he says run more, they interview Paul Hamilton and he said they should have run more, Doug Farrah is asked directly about it by Mike Schopp.
 

But when the callers say they should have run more in that game they get lectured about how it’s not their identity and this is why we paid Allen.

 

New England was game to game flexible with their plan. Jonas Gray for 200 yards, and never heard from again.

 

Not the Bills, every game is Josh Allen gunning no matter the actual score in the game.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Georgie said:

25 carries isnt sustainable, either 

It’s about the specific scenario that was playing out in that game.

 

It was 10-6 Bills into the 4th Quarter.

 

At no point was this a shootout and the defense played great. 
 

The Bills gave the Steelers great field position with their botched 4th down attempts. 

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, quinnearlysghost88 said:

So they weren’t selling out for the pass the other 51 plays? That makes no sense. When you have a balanced run/pass, the defense has to guess more. When you throw 51 times, every play is selling out for the pass, regardless of the score. Running would’ve been effective in any quarter. And if their front 7 stacked the box then you throw. That’s 101. 

Exactly....it's called play action under center. But Dabs is in love with his shotgun 5 wide. How do you think Zeke must feel playing in Dallas. He's an afterthought. I'm not asking us to run 50% of the time but we have to run more. This was our weakness in the playoffs. If we don't have the OL to run then find better linemen. Calling 7 designed qb draws was ridiculous. The only time I want to see Josh run is inside the 5 or on a scramble.

[BarleyNY]

On 9/15/2021 at 12:46 PM, dneveu said:

 

Yea, definitely a consideration.  But on the other hand, it creates gaps in the zones that they needed. 

One more aspect that I didn’t address is that I don’t think we had the horses for it to be effective against Pittsburgh.  Moss was inactive so it was up to Singletary, who is decent but not a difference maker.  The OL talent is definitely geared toward pass blocking over run blocking.

 

What the Bills did could’ve won them the game if they had executed better.  They just didn’t.  I have reasons to think that more runs and play action passes would not have helped much - running not our forte, longer time to throw, taking Josh’s eyes off the defense after the snap - but again, changing things up might’ve been worth a try.  It certainly is a good option to have if we can run they kind of offense effectively. Also it leads me to some other questions, like: How effective can Allen be in a more run heavy, play action offense?  Why wasn’t the running game invested in more?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

56 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

One more aspect that I didn’t address is that I don’t think we had the horses for it to be effective against Pittsburgh.  Moss was inactive so it was up to Singletary, who is decent but not a difference maker.  The OL talent is definitely geared toward pass blocking over run blocking.

 

What the Bills did could’ve won them the game if they had executed better.  They just didn’t.  I have reasons to think that more runs and play action passes would not have helped much - running not our forte, longer time to throw, taking Josh’s eyes off the defense after the snap - but again, changing things up might’ve been worth a try.  It certainly is a good option to have if we can run they kind of offense effectively. Also it leads me to some other questions, like: How effective can Allen be in a more run heavy, play action offense?  Why wasn’t the running game invested in more?

 

Even shotgun play action, RPO stuff. They were light boxes all game and u can scheme a little space in those shallow zones over the middle.

[BarleyNY]

5 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

Even shotgun play action, RPO stuff. They were light boxes all game and u can scheme a little space in those shallow zones over the middle.

I was surprised that they didn’t try more RPO and RO.  They could’ve incorporated that easily with the 11 and 10 personnel they were using.  Dunno.  Maybe they were protecting Allen by avoiding exposing him to a lot of early season hits.  Seems like weak reasoning if that was it, but I don’t know why else they wouldn’t have avoided running those plays.

 

As for shallow zones over the middle, I’d refer you to the thread about how the Steelers confused Allen.  Seems like they made a point of taking that away.  Really good analysis linked in the OP of that thread. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I was surprised that they didn’t try more RPO and RO.  They could’ve incorporated that easily with the 11 and 10 personnel they were using.  Dunno.  Maybe they were protecting Allen by avoiding exposing him to a lot of early season hits.  Seems like weak reasoning if that was it, but I don’t know why else they wouldn’t have avoided running those plays.

 

As for shallow zones over the middle, I’d refer you to the thread about how the Steelers confused Allen.  Seems like they made a point of taking that away.  Really good analysis linked in the OP of that thread. 

 

Especially if you rotate mckenzie in.  read options to singletary and mckenzie coming across for the pass.  Or you have him follow for a pitch.  Make them pack the box more.  

[BringMetheHeadofLeonLett]

When we're all pass, the D-Line doesn't have to account for anything but to get into the backfield.  It's nice to play to our strengths, but that approach doesn't give them any reason to have to address anything else before attacking. Not sure how Daboli doesn't see this, long-term. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, BringMetheHeadofLeonLett said:

When we're all pass, the D-Line doesn't have to account for anything but to get into the backfield.  It's nice to play to our strengths, but that approach doesn't give them any reason to have to address anything else before attacking. Not sure how Daboli doesn't see this, long-term. 

 

Yeah - and if you don't even have a back back there to keep them honest all you're left with is allen QB draws when you check out of a pass.  And I like Allen as a runner, but running backs are shiftier, have a lower center of gravity, and generally are made to take that punishment.

Edited September 17, 2021 by dneveu