Week 2: Bills at Dolphins

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

5 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

We will see what this team is made of. Was last year was an annomally or if we a legit contenders? Teams that start out 0-2 have about a 12% chance of making the post season. I'd say the Bills are in a must win situation. Not something I ever thought I'd be saying at this time.

A Bayesian statistics view would say the 12% isn't the right number here. Many of the teams that start 0-2 are truly terrible. We'd need to look at something like "Teams that won 12 or more games the prior year that start 0-2". 

[Coffeesforclosers]

On 9/12/2021 at 11:24 PM, newcam2012 said:

Right now,  I'm still in shock, disbelief, and denial about how bad the Bills looked. Feels like a gut punch! I can't even think about the Miami game right now. 

 

It was pretty simple in the end.  Pitt won because they out-schemed us on special teams, their O crept by on the bare minimum, and their DL knew our OLs protections and sets for given personnel.  Dabes didn't self-scout for tendencies and got out coached.  Cover 1 broke this down, and Pitt knew our OL protections and how our OLine likes to play.

 

This is all stuff we can change, and I'm betting McD took the Offensive staff behind the woodshed Sunday night.  Tomlin and Butler did us a favor...but I wouldn't want to be the OL coach right now.  His ass may be a little warm...

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 hour ago, Greg S said:

 

If they lose to Miami then they will have to find a way to get a split in the B2B road games at KC/TEN. I expect them to beat a Fitzless WFT and hapless Texans team at home in weeks 3 and 4. So if the Bills win Sunday then there is a very good chance they are 3-1 heading into KC for SNF.

I used to think the Texans game was as close to a gimme as you can in the NFL but after our putrid performance, those hapless Texans are at the top of their conference and dominated their game last weekend yes versus a weak JAX.  People dramatically underestimated Tyrod Taylor and yes he will have special motivation against the Bills.

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

I used to think the Texans game was as close to a gimme as you can in the NFL but after our putrid performance, those hapless Texans are at the top of their conference and dominated their game last weekend yes versus a weak JAX.  People dramatically underestimated Tyrod Taylor and yes he will have special motivation against the Bills.

 

I know the "any given Sunday" thing but if the Bills can't beat the Texans at home then what kind of Super Bowl chances do we really have. 

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, teef said:

that's true, but to be honest, i'm not expecting the bills to get the 1 seed anyway.  it's obviously the goal, but i wouldn't put money on it.  i do expect them to win the division and go from there, but you're correct.

 

I agree with this.  

 

I expect us to win the division with whatever record that is that wins the divison.  

 

I don't expect us to be the #1 seed.  I think Beane was true to his belief of having a year in/year out contender this past offseason, but didn't make the moves to surpass Kansas City.  The only way we surpass them is if the DL is a wrecking unit and Josh Allen becomes the better QB to Mahomes.... I say better, because Mahomes has the most unstoppable 1-2 punch i've ever seen in the NFL with Hill stretching the field and Kelce occupying the underneath/middle. 

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I agree with this.  

 

I expect us to win the division with whatever record that is that wins the divison.  

 

I don't expect us to be the #1 seed.  I think Beane was true to his belief of having a year in/year out contender this past offseason, but didn't make the moves to surpass Kansas City.  The only way we surpass them is if the DL is a wrecking unit and Josh Allen becomes the better QB to Mahomes.... I say better, because Mahomes has the most unstoppable 1-2 punch i've ever seen in the NFL with Hill stretching the field and Kelce occupying the underneath/middle. 

 

Mahomes may be the best QB in the league but he also gets lucky a lot with his improvising. Last week after Cleveland went up 29-20. Mahomes then throws up a prayer which gets caught for a 75 yard TD pass on the very next play from scrimmage. He literally just threw it up there like a hail mary play. Cleveland has to stop that. It should have been stopped. That particular play was more lucky than good.

[P Riv]

Hey, at least we're not Green Bay?  😁

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

Hopefully, Allen won't miss another opportunity like this. This is tough to watch.

 

 

[SCBills]

15 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Mahomes may be the best QB in the league but he also gets lucky a lot with his improvising. Last week after Cleveland went up 29-20. Mahomes then throws up a prayer which gets caught for a 75 yard TD pass on the very next play from scrimmage. He literally just threw it up there like a hail mary play. Cleveland has to stop that. It should have been stopped. That particular play was more lucky than good.

 

If Mahomes threw that pass Allen overthrew to Sanders, its a TD.  Hill has a crazy extra gear that nobody else has and he's turned many a Mahomes overthrow into TD's.  

 

I respect Beane's process... I like that he wants to be a contender year in, year out and builds for the now and future.  With that said, we banked on improvement from Allen, the DL, Edmunds etc., to catch the Chiefs.  The Chiefs went out and rebuilt the one weakness they had exposed in the Super Bowl.  Talent wise, they are still ahead of us, and most everyone else in the league.  It will take Allen surpassing Mahomes and our DL becoming a dominant unit to close that gap. 

 

Edited September 15, 2021 by SCBills

[RoyBatty is alive]

14 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Mahomes may be the best QB in the league but he also gets lucky a lot with his improvising. Last week after Cleveland went up 29-20. Mahomes then throws up a prayer which gets caught for a 75 yard TD pass on the very next play from scrimmage. He literally just threw it up there like a hail mary play. Cleveland has to stop that. It should have been stopped. That particular play was more lucky than good.

 

 

The defender on that play was laughable, no way that should happen in the NFL,

[Dan]

1 hour ago, Coffeesforclosers said:

 

It was pretty simple in the end.  Pitt won because they out-schemed us on special teams, their O crept by on the bare minimum, and their DL knew our OLs protections and sets for given personnel.  Dabes didn't self-scout for tendencies and got out coached.  Cover 1 broke this down, and Pitt knew our OL protections and how our OLine likes to play.

 

This is all stuff we can change, and I'm betting McD took the Offensive staff behind the woodshed Sunday night.  Tomlin and Butler did us a favor...but I wouldn't want to be the OL coach right now.  His ass may be a little warm...

 

This is the most troubling thing about the Steelers game, perhaps mostly because it’s not the first time an opponent has seemed to have our game plan figured out and when this happens; the coaches make zero in game adjustments.  After the loss they just say... we need to execute better.  
 

Yes various players played poorly.  But the coaching staff did nothing to help them out.    That is concerning to me. 

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

If Mahomes threw that pass Allen overthrew to Sanders, its a TD.  Hill has a crazy extra gear that nobody else has and he's turned many a Mahomes overthrow into TD's.  

 

I respect Beane's process... I like that he wants to be a contender year in, year out and builds for the now and future.  With that said, we banked on improvement from Allen, the DL, Edmunds etc., to catch the Chiefs.  The Chiefs went out and rebuilt the one weakness they had exposed in the Super Bowl.  Talent wise, they are still ahead of us, and most everyone else in the league.  It will take Allen surpassing Mahomes and our DL becoming a dominant unit to close that gap. 

 

It doesn’t matter how much allen or the DL improves if the OL plays like they did week 1.  We can win plenty of games, but the SB is a different story.  The OL must improve if we have little chance of a Lombardi this season

[SCBills]

7 minutes ago, Dan said:

This is the most troubling thing about the Steelers game, perhaps mostly because it’s not the first time an opponent has seemed to have our game plan figured out and when this happens; the coaches make zero in game adjustments.  After the loss they just say... we need to execute better.  
 

Yes various players played poorly.  But the coaching staff did nothing to help them out.    That is concerning to me. 

 

I think there validity to this and also some of it is, they just need to execute better.

 

If you design plays, and the play works, and somebody involved in the play messes it up... then they need to execute better.  

 

That being said, if we see someone is struggling that day, part of the coaching duties is to help that player or replace that player.  If it's Allen, and the passing game, probably not replacing that player, so how does Daboll get him going?  He can tell Allen to execute better, but sometimes that isn't enough...and that's when we can run some plays to get him into a rhythm, or take the pressure off him - and yes, it seems we didn't see any effort to do that... It was just "be better"... welp, that obviously didn't happen so where's plan B?

 

Same goes for the OL... just block better?  How about we scheme better if that's not the answer for the day?

 

Edited September 15, 2021 by SCBills

[Dr. Who]

Just now, NewEra said:

It doesn’t matter how much allen or the DL improves if the OL plays like they did week 1.  We can win plenty of games, but the SB is a different story.  The OL must improve if we have little chance of a Lombardi this season

Drafted developmental tackles and a late pick on a guard. Whole line was bad last Sunday. You accept Morse is not good at run blocking when the pass protection is good. If it's not, there's nothing to hang your hat on. Still think they will get better, because they were at least decent last year, but it is concerning.

 

And as most have said, the OC has to call a much smarter game.

[PolishDave]

4 minutes ago, Dan said:

This is the most troubling thing about the Steelers game, perhaps mostly because it’s not the first time an opponent has seemed to have our game plan figured out and when this happens; the coaches make zero in game adjustments.  After the loss they just say... we need to execute better.  
 

Yes various players played poorly.  But the coaching staff did nothing to help them out.    That is concerning to me. 

Good post.

 

It is concerning that the Steelers were able to game plan that well against the Bills' offensive line based on previous years' tapes.

 

That tells me they changed nothing (or at least too little) about what they were doing last year (or perhaps longer) on the offensive line.

 

I don't know how much change can be made in blocking schemes in one week of practice during the season?    But my sense tell me, if you try to change too much you will just create problems that didn't exist before.   I think it takes at least a handful of games for an offensive line to effectively make substantial chances to their blocking schemes.    Maybe I'm wrong there.  I just don't know.

 

We will learn a lot in the Miami game.   And we will really learn a lot about this coaching staff's capabilities once we play another excellent defensive line - like Washington perhaps.

 

 

[YoloinOhio]

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

 

 

[PolishDave]

3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I think there validity to this and also some of it is, they just need to execute better.

 

If you design plays, and the play works, and somebody involved in the play messes it up... then they need to execute better.  

 

That being said, if we see someone is struggling that day, part of the coaching duties is to help that player or replace that player.  If it's Allen, and the passing game, probably not replacing that player, so how does Daboll get him going?  He can tell Allen to execute better, but sometimes that isn't enough...and that's when we can run some plays to get him into a rhythm, or take the pressure off him - and yes, it seems we didn't see any effort to do that... It was just "be better"... welp, that obviously didn't happen so where's plan B?

 

Same goes for the OL... just block better?  How about we scheme better if that's not the answer for the day?

 

 

I think the thing the biggest difference in the Steelers game would have been made by bring a back into the backfield strictly for doubling Heyward.   As in not allowing the back to ever do anything except double him.    Or, had some other scheme to see that he was doubled every single time he was on the field.

 

Heyward destroyed his opponent many times when he was singled.  It was usually Feliciano.   Massive mismatch.   Steelers were licking their chops.    Heyward was twice the factor that any other Steelers defensive lineman was.      If the Bills had successfully blocked Heyward the entire game, (I know that is fantasy), then Allen would have been a lot more effective passing.    We simply allowed WAY too much pressure up the middle.   That is how you defeat every excellent passer in this league.    Pressure up the middle.  Steelers didn't even need to blitz to do it.   They did it when Heyward was one on one.   

 

It sounds laughable, but it is possible that the Steelers could have had an effective pass rush with just Heyward out there and everyone else on the line just standing there holding their hands up to disrupt passing lanes. 

[Solomon Grundy]

35 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

Mahomes may be the best QB in the league but he also gets lucky a lot with his improvising. Last week after Cleveland went up 29-20. Mahomes then throws up a prayer which gets caught for a 75 yard TD pass on the very next play from scrimmage. He literally just threw it up there like a hail mary play. Cleveland has to stop that. It should have been stopped. That particular play was more lucky than good.

 

32 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

Hopefully, Allen won't miss another opportunity like this. This is tough to watch.

 

 

WOW!!!

[Greg S]

18 minutes ago, NewEra said:

It doesn’t matter how much allen or the DL improves if the OL plays like they did week 1.  We can win plenty of games, but the SB is a different story.  The OL must improve if we have little chance of a Lombardi this season

 

Which is why Beane hopefully improves the OL this offseason. I know the Bills scored over 500 points last year but I still would like them to be more balanced on offense. Think Cleveland. Mayfield while not as good as Allen can still make all the throws but they can also run the ball down your throat with Chubb. Granted the Bills don't have a RB as talented as him. If teams had to respect the Bills run game then think of how much more dangerous the Bills passing game would be. A better OL goes a long way in accomplishing this.

Edited September 15, 2021 by Greg S