If it's 4th and short, the play call is easy... or should be

[transplantbillsfan]

Now this stat is from about 6 years ago, but between 1999-2015, a QB sneak on 4th and 2 or less were successful 89.7% of the time.

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down

 

Now, granted... on 4th and 1 it drops to 82.8% for the QB Sneak, but that's still significantly more successful than the 63.4% success rate of all non QB run plays, but an 82%+ percent success rate on 4th and short along with having a 6'5, 240+ lb QB makes the answer obvious.

 

Any (and I mean ANY) time it's 4th and short (definitely less than 1... 2 or less in certain parts of the field) you don't huddle up... you don't take timeouts... you run up and hike the darn ball and run Allen under center for the 1st down!

 

This has been a huge frustration of mine ever since we've drafted Allen. That's on Daboll... period.

[Coach Tuesday]

There is literally already a thread dedicated to that one play.  

[Dan]

And that’s when you go 5 wide to keep half the defense outside the middle of the field.  Don’t intentionally bunch everyone into the middle of the field with an I formation and the lone wr motioning across the line. 

[Nextmanup]

To the OP: you are forgetting we are coached by a HC who makes important call decisions on factors like "wanting to fire the team up at the time" as he said after one game last year.

 

Don't think he knows what percentages are.

 

 

[Haslett_Stomp]

Beane:  do that again and you'll be a candidate for the Texans head coach position this year rather than next.

Edited September 12, 2021 by Haslett_Stomp

[Special K]

That was the absolute worst playcall of the Daboll era....a stunning level of stupidity.

[transplantbillsfan]

15 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

There is literally already a thread dedicated to that one play.  

 

This is less about that single play than the inability of Daboll (who was with the Patriots and saw Brady's success rate on those plays over the years) to understand the asset he has at QB and the proper way to train that asset to run a 4th and short play.

 

There should be no thinking about it... it should be automatic.

[Niagara Dude]

29 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Now this stat is from about 6 years ago, but between 1999-2015, a QB sneak on 4th and 2 or less were successful 89.7% of the time.

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down

 

Now, granted... on 4th and 1 it drops to 82.8% for the QB Sneak, but that's still significantly more successful than the 63.4% success rate of all non QB run plays, but an 82%+ percent success rate on 4th and short along with having a 6'5, 240+ lb QB makes the answer obvious.

 

Any (and I mean ANY) time it's 4th and short (definitely less than 1... 2 or less in certain parts of the field) you don't huddle up... you don't take timeouts... you run up and hike the darn ball and run Allen under center for the 1st down!

 

This has been a huge frustration of mine ever since we've drafted Allen. That's on Daboll... period.

That play was just stupid and handed this game to the Steelers,

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

It was bad news bears kinda stuff

[Bangarang]

The 4th and 8 call and 4th and 1 call were questionable at best. 
 

Not sure why we’d pass on a 53 yard FG attempt to go for it on 4th and 8 after punting on 4th and short multiple times before that. 

[abranovi]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Now this stat is from about 6 years ago, but between 1999-2015, a QB sneak on 4th and 2 or less were successful 89.7% of the time.

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down

 

Now, granted... on 4th and 1 it drops to 82.8% for the QB Sneak, but that's still significantly more successful than the 63.4% success rate of all non QB run plays, but an 82%+ percent success rate on 4th and short along with having a 6'5, 240+ lb QB makes the answer obvious.

 

Any (and I mean ANY) time it's 4th and short (definitely less than 1... 2 or less in certain parts of the field) you don't huddle up... you don't take timeouts... you run up and hike the darn ball and run Allen under center for the 1st down!

 

This has been a huge frustration of mine ever since we've drafted Allen. That's on Daboll... period.

I think Tom Brady is 100% on those conversions

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Bangarang said:

The 4th and 8 call and 4th and 1 call were questionable at best. 
 

Not sure why we’d pass on a 53 yard FG attempt to go for it on 4th and 8 after punting on 4th and short multiple times before that. 

 

Some truly bizarre coaching decisions for McDermott on 4th downs today. Jekyll and Hyde.

[Teddy KGB]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Some truly bizarre coaching decisions for McDermott on 4th downs today. Jekyll and Hyde.

no faith in the OL 

[BillsFan130]

2 hours ago, Special K said:

That was the absolute worst playcall of the Daboll era....a stunning level of stupidity.

I honestly think all the comments in the off season about how smart and creative he was got to him this game.

 

Seemed like he was trying to get too cute and outsmart everyone.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Now this stat is from about 6 years ago, but between 1999-2015, a QB sneak on 4th and 2 or less were successful 89.7% of the time.

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down

 

Now, granted... on 4th and 1 it drops to 82.8% for the QB Sneak, but that's still significantly more successful than the 63.4% success rate of all non QB run plays, but an 82%+ percent success rate on 4th and short along with having a 6'5, 240+ lb QB makes the answer obvious.

 

Any (and I mean ANY) time it's 4th and short (definitely less than 1... 2 or less in certain parts of the field) you don't huddle up... you don't take timeouts... you run up and hike the darn ball and run Allen under center for the 1st down!

 

This has been a huge frustration of mine ever since we've drafted Allen. That's on Daboll... period.

In 2004, the Bills ran this exact same

play for a TD by Willis McGahee. Check out the video at 45

seconds:

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

Anyone notice another 4th and short we screwed the pooch on today?

 

Justin Herbert easily converted a 4th and 1 inside his own 30 just now with a QB sneak...

 

 

 

 

just sayin...

[JohnNord]

On 9/12/2021 at 5:54 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

Now this stat is from about 6 years ago, but between 1999-2015, a QB sneak on 4th and 2 or less were successful 89.7% of the time.

https://sports.sites.yale.edu/success-short-yardage-play-types-fourth-down

 

Now, granted... on 4th and 1 it drops to 82.8% for the QB Sneak, but that's still significantly more successful than the 63.4% success rate of all non QB run plays, but an 82%+ percent success rate on 4th and short along with having a 6'5, 240+ lb QB makes the answer obvious.

 

Any (and I mean ANY) time it's 4th and short (definitely less than 1... 2 or less in certain parts of the field) you don't huddle up... you don't take timeouts... you run up and hike the darn ball and run Allen under center for the 1st down!

 

This has been a huge frustration of mine ever since we've drafted Allen. That's on Daboll... period.

I think Daboll learned his lesson

[transplantbillsfan]

Thursday night game it's all passing on 4th down and Herbert fails.

 

Tonight it's QB sneak with Wentz.

 

Gee... anyone shocked it's a success?

[transplantbillsfan]

Okay... I know this is 2 years old and CoC for old threads states  "This topic is OLD. A NEW topic should be started unless there is a very specific reason to revive this one." but there is a very specific reason to revive it.

 

I'm sick of lining up in Shotgun almost every single 3rd and 4th and short!!!

 

When is McDermott going to realize that Josh is automatic on the QB Sneak?!?!

[K D]

You would have to be a complete moron to pass on 4th and inches. It's not a football discussion at all. It's math