Something to keep an eye on: Point differential?

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

2 hours ago, mannc said:

Not always easy, but when it happens the same way in 5 or 6 games, which it did, it's fair to conclude that it's a result of more conservative play-calling on offense and prevent defense.

I think that's more a fair hypothesis than a fair conclusion. To make a conclusion about this alleged change in play calling, I'd think you'd have to study the actual play calling.

[machine gun kelly]

Hap, good question, and I’ve used this example both to patients when describing A1C with diabetics is 9+1=10/2=5.  6+4=10/2=5 too.  Do you want an A1C where you are a BG of 40 and 400, or do you want a variance of 70 vs. 135.  I know you’re medical history so you get my point.

 

Pt. differential is a data point, but needs to be taken in context as you bring up.  There have been some comments about driving up the score, and love it, but we relied so much on the pass, look at the injuries to the WR’s.  Maybe there is no correlation, but if we didn’t have one guy with a broken leg, torn oblique, and two with knee and ankle problems, could we have done better when it mattered.  Maybe not.

 

If we can make a difference and win late with RB’s as they are more competent (we hope this year) that gives our most important weapon, the passing game, I’m all for it.  I’m also in the beginning of the 4th quarter we are up by 21 or more, happy to have MT in there and protect JA17.  I want to win, but I want our guys healthy right t the end of at all possible so if that means we win by 10 on a particular team, vs. 21, no problem for me.  You can always throw you’re starters back in if thing go south halfway in the 4th quarter.

[RoyBatty is alive]

Point differential is meaningless.

 

Example,  there were MANY Bills-Pats games that were numerically close BIUT the Pats dominated us and Belichek, the master egomaniac., for whatever reason often decided not to run up the score.  When he feels slighted or embarrassed by the Bills or some dumb arse comment by a Bill, he would put the pedal down to the floor.

 

Or when a game has long been decided and the winning team, plays soft defense, the much lauded "garbage points" can add up.

Winning the point differential is like Rex declaring we won the pre-season.

[Mango]

2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Question:

 

How do you tell the difference between "took our foot off the gas" on Offense vs. stalled out/couldn't move the ball against defensive adjustments?

(3Q syndrome)

 

How do you tell the difference between "allowed the other teams to move up and down the field" and "couldn't stop them, resulting in a comeback where we had to re-take the lead"?

 

This is a good point. One thing to note, until the Bills huge last quarter of the season, they were among the worst 3Q scoring teams in the NFL. This has been true under McD since 2017. 

The Bills have been one of the best 4th quarter scoring teams in the NFL in 2019 and 2020. Even without the big final month in 2020. 

Defensive points allowed by quarter have been a mixed bag over the last 4 seasons for Buffalo. Last year Buffalo allowed some of the most points in the 3rd quarter as well...up until the final month again, where they were able to move from 28t to 21st. 

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/

3rd quarter woes have become a pattern for us the last few years for whatever reason. If we can fix that, I think we become pretty dangerous as last years final month showed. And the entire point differentia probably takes an uptick. 

To note, in the playoffs we were +3, +14,and -7 in the 3rd quarter. 

[YattaOkasan]

22 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Point differential is meaningless.

 

Example,  there were MANY Bills-Pats games that were numerically close BIUT the Pats dominated us and Belichek, the master egomaniac., for whatever reason often decided not to run up the score.  When he feels slighted or embarrassed by the Bills or some dumb arse comment by a Bill, he would put the pedal down to the floor.

 

Or when a game has long been decided and the winning team, plays soft defense, the much lauded "garbage points" can add up.

Winning the point differential is like Rex declaring we won the pre-season.

But it isnt meaningless.  At the end of the season it predicted 12 of 14 playoff teams.  That was better than DVOA (same as weighted DVOA though).  the weight of its meaning is debatable but to say it has no meaning is wrong.

Edited September 7, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

But it isnt meaningless.  At the end of the season it predicted 12 of 14 playoff teams.  That was better than DVOA (same as weighted DVOA though).  the weight of its meaning is debatable but to say it has no meaning is wrong.

Over the course of an entire season, it is definitely meaningful, but not definitive, of course.

[RoyBatty is alive]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

But it isnt.  At the end of the day it predicted 12 of 14 playoff teams.  That was better than DVOA (same as weighted DVOA though).  the weight of its meaning is debatable but to say it has no meaning is wrong.

 

 

That is like saying if team X rushes for over 200 yards they win 95% of the games.    True but worthless.

 

W/L records "predicted" 12 out of 14 playoff teams.

Just now, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

That is like saying if team X rushes for over 200 yards they win 95% of the games.    True but worthless.

 

By definition is you outscore your opponent, you win the game.  If you win by 1 or by 40 is irrelevant.  Also by definition if you have a bigger pint differential you have likely won my games, a "circular proof'

 

W/L records "predicted" 12 out of 14 playoff teams.

 

[Coach Tuesday]

3 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

 

That is like saying if team X rushes for over 200 yards they win 95% of the games.    True but worthless.

 

W/L records "predicted" 12 out of 14 playoff teams.

 

 

It's far from meaningless but you have to go beyond the numbers to understand what's going on.  Did both the offensive and defensive performances vary or just one?  (In the Bills' case, it was just defense).  If they both varied, did the variance coincide, i.e., did the entire team play flat against weaker opponents?  If so you're probably looking at a coaching/focus issue.  If one unit varied, was it addressed in the offseason by player personnel/coaching/scheme changes?  Etc. etc.  There is a lot behind the "why" that absolutely matters.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Difference between points scored and points allowed.

 

The Bills finished at +126, which is respectable at 7.9 ppg and higher than the Chiefs at 6.9 ppg

 

But that's largely driven by 3 games at the end of the season (Denver, NE, and Mia) where we kicked butt and took names.

In a lot of the early games, we barely squeaked by and of course, we got embarrassed in Tenn and by KC.

 

I seem to recall a bunch of regulars here sounding a warning note early in the season because our point differential was so slender, hovering close to 0 for 4 weeks before the bye.

 

Jim Kubiak has an article up on TBN about it (I value his QB analysis every week, if you're unfamliar, and they have a Deal)

 

On the one hand, I see the point (haha): differential is a straightforward metric that asks if both offense and defense are Doing Their Job.  And it would be less nail-biting to see it be more consistent

 

On the other hand, I fall into the category that "a win is a win", no style points.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

 

It's definitely a reflection of overall team strength, IMO.

 

The 2017 Bills had a -57 point differential.......the lowest by an AFC playoff team since the 1980's.......but THAT number was skewed by the epic (post-Dareus trade) -80 point differential 3 game  defensive collapse though.    Without that they were otherwise +23.    

 

I mentioned in the Peter King thread though that the 1991 Redskins produced what was then the highest point differential in the SB era at the time.......+261..........greater than even the 1985 Bears..........and King had the audacity to prognosticate the Cowboys over the Skins and the vaunted 49ers to win the SB in 1992 despite the Cowboys only having a +32 point differential in 1991.  

 

And he was right.........but the Cowboys finished +160 in 1992.

 

 

 

Edited September 7, 2021 by BADOLBILZ

[Mango]

27 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Point differential is meaningless.

 

Example,  there were MANY Bills-Pats games that were numerically close BIUT the Pats dominated us and Belichek, the master egomaniac., for whatever reason often decided not to run up the score.  When he feels slighted or embarrassed by the Bills or some dumb arse comment by a Bill, he would put the pedal down to the floor.

 

Or when a game has long been decided and the winning team, plays soft defense, the much lauded "garbage points" can add up.

Winning the point differential is like Rex declaring we won the pre-season.

 

I don't think it is meaningless. I am also not a statistician, so in some regard a lot of statistics are over my/our collective heads. 

I think it is something to pay attention to and a reasonable talking point amongst fans on a message board. Also, you would never regularly bet on a team with an average point differential of +1.5 ppg to win 13 games (Buffalo before December 2020). I think people look at stats to be a guarantee for things to happen, but most of the time it is a probability. Like Josh Allen's career arch, or the Bills last season. It CAN happen, but not likely. When we talk about +/- here, there aren't a group of people saying the Bills won't be good, or they can't win a lot of games, rather they are making it hard on themselves and will have to beat the odds unless they can address/adjust some things. 

 

Your point about Bills vs. Pats is incredibly flawed. Bill Bellichick vs. the Bills as HC of the Patriots is +10.5. In just about every year in NFL history that would be one of the three highest, if not THE highest +/- in the league, and that is the average against us. It shows that we historically get a public beatdown when we go up against BB. (BB is +6.6 against McD)

Point differential is meaningless at a single game view. But over a season, or multiple season, it is a good starting point for conversation and things to be addressed. 

Source on Bill Belichick vs. Buffalo: https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-england-patriots/teamvsteam?opp=4

[RoyBatty is alive]

7 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

I don't think it is meaningless. I am also not a statistician, so in some regard a lot of statistics are over my/our collective heads. 

I think it is something to pay attention to and a reasonable talking point amongst fans on a message board. Also, you would never regularly bet on a team with an average point differential of +1.5 ppg to win 13 games (Buffalo before December 2020). I think people look at stats to be a guarantee for things to happen, but most of the time it is a probability. Like Josh Allen's career arch, or the Bills last season. It CAN happen, but not likely. When we talk about +/- here, there aren't a group of people saying the Bills won't be good, or they can't win a lot of games, rather they are making it hard on themselves and will have to beat the odds unless they can address/adjust some things. 

 

Your point about Bills vs. Pats is incredibly flawed. Bill Bellichick vs. the Bills as HC of the Patriots is +10.5. In just about every year in NFL history that would be one of the three highest, if not THE highest +/- in the league, and that is the average against us. It shows that we historically get a public beatdown when we go up against BB. (BB is +6.6 against McD)

Point differential is meaningless at a single game view. But over a season, or multiple season, it is a good starting point for conversation and things to be addressed. 

Source on Bill Belichick vs. Buffalo: https://www.footballdb.com/teams/nfl/new-england-patriots/teamvsteam?opp=4

Did you read what I wrote. I explained it, do I have to do it again?

 

Sometimes he ran up the score, sometimes he didnt, hardly an indication if the Bills are any good if you want to predict Belcihek's whims.

 

Starting point of a conversation, sure, that is about it.

Edited September 7, 2021 by RoyBatty is alive

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

I think that's more a fair hypothesis than a fair conclusion. To make a conclusion about this alleged change in play calling, I'd think you'd have to study the actual play calling.

 

Which the Bills did at the bye and, seemingly, fixed the issue. I think there were a number of factors but play calling was likely one.

[Mango]

9 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Did you read what I wrote. I explained it, do I have to do it again?

 

Sometimes he ran up the score, sometimes he didnt, hardly an indication if the Bills are any good if you want to predict Belcihick's whims.

 

Starting point of a conversation, sure, that is about it.

 

Right, I get what you said, and you are wrong. The Bills have lost to Bill Belichick by 2 possessions 24/43 times. Over half the time, the Bills lose by 2 scores. 7 of the 19 remaining games the Bills have actually won. That means of the 36 times Bill Belichick has beaten Buffalo, 24, or 66% of the time it is by two possessions. For reference, only 5 teams in the league last year had an average +/- of +7 or greater....

Edited September 7, 2021 by Mango

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 minute ago, Mango said:

 

Right, I get what you said, and you are wrong. The Bills have lost to Bill Belichick by 2 possessions 24/43 times. Over half the time, the Bills lose by 2 scores. 7 of the 19 remaining games the Bills have actually won. That means of the 43 teams Bill Belichick has played Buffalo, he has won by 2 possessions. For reference, only 5 teams in the league last year had an average +/- of +7 or greater....

No I m not "wrong", that is my OPINION, got it? 

 

You state your opinion as if it is fact and then follow it up with a bunch of jumbled indecipherable stats as some kind of "proof".

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

4 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Difference between points scored and points allowed.

 

The Bills finished at +126, which is respectable at 7.9 ppg and higher than the Chiefs at 6.9 ppg

 

But that's largely driven by 3 games at the end of the season (Denver, NE, and Mia) where we kicked butt and took names.

In a lot of the early games, we barely squeaked by and of course, we got embarrassed in Tenn and by KC.

 

I seem to recall a bunch of regulars here sounding a warning note early in the season because our point differential was so slender, hovering close to 0 for 4 weeks before the bye.

 

Jim Kubiak has an article up on TBN about it (I value his QB analysis every week, if you're unfamliar, and they have a Deal)

 

On the one hand, I see the point (haha): differential is a straightforward metric that asks if both offense and defense are Doing Their Job.  And it would be less nail-biting to see it be more consistent

 

On the other hand, I fall into the category that "a win is a win", no style points.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

💭 

 People were complaining about the negative points differential all through September 

so we can allow the late season ppg for what they are 

 

 

 

[Mango]

Just now, RoyBatty is alive said:

No I m not "wrong", that is my OPINION, got it? 

 

You state your opinion as if it is fact and then follow it up with a bunch of jumbled indecipherable stats as some kind of "proof".

 

You were quick to respond, I edited the typo pretty quickly as well. 

Long and short, 66% of the time BB beats the Bills by 2 scores. On average BB beats the Bills by 10.5 points. Sure "some" of those games are closer than other. Hell the Bills even wine "some" of those games, but historically over 20 years, BB beats the Bills by a margin that would rank them at the very top or very close to the very top of point differential in the league on any given year. 

You are welcome to have any opinion you would like, but it does not make it correct. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Tenny was a covid disaster combined with Josh’s shoulder injury. 
 

the O went in a mini slump until the brace came off 3 weeks later 

[RoyBatty is alive]

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

 

You were quick to respond, I edited the typo pretty quickly as well. 

Long and short, 66% of the time BB beats the Bills by 2 scores. On average BB beats the Bills by 10.5 points. Sure "some" of those games are closer than other. Hell the Bills even wine "some" of those games, but historically over 20 years, BB beats the Bills by a margin that would rank them at the very top or very close to the very top of point differential in the league on any given year. 

You are welcome to have any opinion you would like, but it does not make it correct. 

 

Do you even know what Opinion means.  You can not prove any opinion right or wrong,  correct or incorrect,....you can agree or disagree with it.    

 

In my opinion, you are beating a dead horse to multiple deaths.

Edited September 7, 2021 by RoyBatty is alive

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Point differential is meaningless.

 

3 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

 

Do you even know what Opinion means.  You can not prove any opinion right or wrong,  correct or incorrect,....you can agree or disagree with it.    

 

In my opinion, you are beating a dead horse to multiple deaths.

 

If you truly believe point differential is "meaningless," your opinion is "worthless."

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

September usually has the highest scoring games,

 

then the defenses catch up. 


Scoring 40s in December is awesome 

Sure a soft schedule / weaker opponent  helps

Edited September 7, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce