Something to keep an eye on: Point differential?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Difference between points scored and points allowed.

 

The Bills finished at +126, which is respectable at 7.9 ppg and higher than the Chiefs at 6.9 ppg

 

But that's largely driven by 3 games at the end of the season (Denver, NE, and Mia) where we kicked butt and took names.

In a lot of the early games, we barely squeaked by and of course, we got embarrassed in Tenn and by KC.

 

I seem to recall a bunch of regulars here sounding a warning note early in the season because our point differential was so slender, hovering close to 0 for 4 weeks before the bye.

 

Jim Kubiak has an article up on TBN about it (I value his QB analysis every week, if you're unfamliar, and they have a Deal)

 

On the one hand, I see the point (haha): differential is a straightforward metric that asks if both offense and defense are Doing Their Job.  And it would be less nail-biting to see it be more consistent

 

On the other hand, I fall into the category that "a win is a win", no style points.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

[fergie's ire]

I think that people talk about point differential because in sports like basketball and baseball it is extremely predictive.  If a team is leading the division at the all star game, but has a narrow or even negative point differential, they are probably going to regress in the second half.  It seems there was a team that bucked the odds a few years ago and continued with a strong record despite a poor run differential, but it's really rare.  However, at the mid-point of the season those sports have 40 or 80 games on which to base an avg.  The NFL has 8.  The problem is, as you pointed out with the Bills, a few games can complete skew the average...There just isn't a large enough sample size.

[Mango]

I believe I was one of those posters who had some concern about point differential. I think it could still be a concern. We need better production from the defense on a consistent basis. I think the DL will be somewhat improved. Unsure if they will take the leap we hope. I think the back 7 need to do a better job at holding their own. Specifically CB depth and LB's. 

Winning a lot of games with a poor differential is tough, especially over multiple seasons. 

EDIT: Mid October last year I had a post on it. Not often do teams make the playoffs with a negative point differential. More often than not, they lose early and lose big in the playoffs. Something to keep an eye on. 
 

 

Edited September 7, 2021 by Mango

[DCofNC]

Nobody talks about point differential if you win a championship.  The ring is all that matters.   Just win.

 

Last year the Bills played against some pretty garbage teams and did what they were supposed to do, beat the snot out of them.   They need to continue to do that, don’t play down, that’s how you lose.  This team needs to play like the Patriots did when they were dominating.  Go out, strike fear in the hearts of your opponents, bury them and don’t apologize, especially to divisional opponents.  Win as many as you can, stay hated/feared and try for that ring, that’s all that matters.  Having teams feel like they have to be perfect to beat you, puts pressure on them, they usually crack under that pressure.

[LeGOATski]

I think point differential is certainly a good indicator of how dominant a team has been. It could also show how weak their schedule has been.

 

With all stats, you have to dig into the "why" and provide sufficient context.

 

As we all know, early last year the Bills were struggling to keep the pedal to the metal. They kept letting teams get back into the game in the 3rd quarter. They weren't protecting the ball well enough. And again as we all know, that improved a bit with a change in mentality after the "Hail Murray."

[Rc2catch]

I’m in the a win is a win category. Teams make it to the playoffs in many different ways and I’m a firm believer you just need to get hot at the right time. I clearly want this team to win and get at least to a super bowl, but I don’t care if they’re 14-3 #1 seed or 10-7 wildcard, I still see them as the same kind of team. The only thing that changes anything for me is key injuries which we hopefully don’t see many of. So I don’t value point difference as any real measuring stick. 

[Mr. WEO]

[stosh64]

I think this team changed it's philosophy after the 'hail murray' loss.

Instead of holding on to leads and letting our D finish them off I think McDermott and crew said screw this, score as often as you can until the final horn sounds, the final games speak for themselves.

I don't foresee it being a problem this year, McD, and the whole team learn lessons well and tend not to repeat mistakes.

[YattaOkasan]

Needs to be taken in context.  The Steelers were the other team being discussed in the point differential discussion last year.  And as @Mango mentioned they finished weak and were knocked out of the playoffs in embarrassing fashion.  The context to me is why point differential so close.  For us our D was injured and we got healthy the second half which resulted in us dominating teams.  For the Steelers it was a concern as they took a couple more injuries and their schedule got harder.  

[dorquemada]

The one thing I'd like to see is the Bills really taking care of business against lesser teams, which will of course buffer up the points diffy.   Close games against peer and near peer teams are expected but i don't want to see the Jets hanging around until Q4.  I want to see confident play, mistakes minimized, and a coherent yet flexible game plan.  Still not sure what happened against TN and KC last year but hopefully no more sleepwalking games like those

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

24 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Difference between points scored and points allowed.

 

The Bills finished at +126, which is respectable at 7.9 ppg and higher than the Chiefs at 6.9 ppg

 

But that's largely driven by 3 games at the end of the season (Denver, NE, and Mia) where we kicked butt and took names.

In a lot of the early games, we barely squeaked by and of course, we got embarrassed in Tenn and by KC.

 

I seem to recall a bunch of regulars here sounding a warning note early in the season because our point differential was so slender, hovering close to 0 for 4 weeks before the bye.

 

Jim Kubiak has an article up on TBN about it (I value his QB analysis every week, if you're unfamliar, and they have a Deal)

 

On the one hand, I see the point (haha): differential is a straightforward metric that asks if both offense and defense are Doing Their Job.  And it would be less nail-biting to see it be more consistent

 

On the other hand, I fall into the category that "a win is a win", no style points.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

Everyone is influenced in both directions by blowouts though.  The other factor is garbage time.

 

Did it matter that we beat miami by 3?  No, because we were up 10 with under 2 to go.  Buffalo gave up 7 in the last minute against NYJ week 1.  Raiders scored with sub 2 minutes left in a 2 score game.  Titans scored in the last 2 minutes of that blowout.  Seattle scored in the last 2 minutes to lose by 10.  Chargers almost did to lose by 3.  49ers scored in the last minute.  Denver did - but cancelled by singletary.  

 

So 6 Garbage time scores - that literally meant nothing to the end result of games.  I'm sure this happens throughout the league, but it also makes a game look a lot closer.  The jets was a blowout, the dolphins game while tight, was a 2 score game in the last 2 minutes, raiders was really never in doubt, seattle was never in doubt.  Same with SF.

2 minutes ago, stosh64 said:

I think this team changed it's philosophy after the 'hail murray' loss.

Instead of holding on to leads and letting our D finish them off I think McDermott and crew said screw this, score as often as you can until the final horn sounds, the final games speak for themselves.

I don't foresee it being a problem this year, McD, and the whole team learn lessons well and tend not to repeat mistakes.

 

At teh end of the day, its hard to be motivated to stop the opponent when you are up 14 with 2 minutes left.  You're just trying to get the game over with.  

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

It really doesn't mean much to me as a raw number unless the data is normalized to take into consideration the strength of each individual opponent.  Some people use power rankings or current winning percentage of the opponents.  Some gamblers will even use both.  Most people just use the old eyeball test of watching the games.  This allows people to discount the unusual plays that swing a game ( ie hail Murray).

[H2o]

5 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

You have to gif this one Weo, the mere picture doesn't do it justice.

 

[Mango]

4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

I think point differential is certainly a good indicator of how dominant a team has been. It could also show how weak their schedule has been.

 

With all stats, you have to dig into the "why" and provide sufficient context.

 

As we all know, early last year the Bills were struggling to keep the pedal to the metal. They kept letting teams get back into the game in the 3rd quarter. They weren't protecting the ball well enough. And again as we all know, that improved a bit with a change in mentality after the "Hail Murray."

 

There can be a whole lot of why, but I think ultimately it is a concern. Teams with low or negative point differentials rarely have good runs in the playoffs. One thing to note is, outside of the final 3 games of the season, the Bills point differential was +2.9 points per game/+38 on the season. The schedule was harder for sure. But the Bills also had some struggles on defense that they didn't have in 2019 where our differential was higher. Buffalo had a negative differential in 17 and 18. 

[FilthyBeast]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Difference between points scored and points allowed.

 

The Bills finished at +126, which is respectable at 7.9 ppg and higher than the Chiefs at 6.9 ppg

 

But that's largely driven by 3 games at the end of the season (Denver, NE, and Mia) where we kicked butt and took names.

In a lot of the early games, we barely squeaked by and of course, we got embarrassed in Tenn and by KC.

 

I seem to recall a bunch of regulars here sounding a warning note early in the season because our point differential was so slender, hovering close to 0 for 4 weeks before the bye.

 

Jim Kubiak has an article up on TBN about it (I value his QB analysis every week, if you're unfamliar, and they have a Deal)

 

On the one hand, I see the point (haha): differential is a straightforward metric that asks if both offense and defense are Doing Their Job.  And it would be less nail-biting to see it be more consistent

 

On the other hand, I fall into the category that "a win is a win", no style points.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

I think the Bills did have a not so great point differential at midseason even when they were 6-2 but created separation in the 2nd half of the season when they started beating teams more decisively so hopefully that trend continues and we don't play down to the level of competition so to speak.

[Coach Tuesday]

To be clear: the “context” here is the defense - the offense did its job every week except against KC, basically.  So the issue was the defense letting the other team keep the game close.  It’s not like the offense was laying goose eggs some weeks.  Point differential can mean different things to different teams but in the Bills’ case, the defense needs to improve this year and not let teams hang around.

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Difference between points scored and points allowed.

 

The Bills finished at +126, which is respectable at 7.9 ppg and higher than the Chiefs at 6.9 ppg

 

But that's largely driven by 3 games at the end of the season (Denver, NE, and Mia) where we kicked butt and took names.

In a lot of the early games, we barely squeaked by and of course, we got embarrassed in Tenn and by KC.

 

I seem to recall a bunch of regulars here sounding a warning note early in the season because our point differential was so slender, hovering close to 0 for 4 weeks before the bye.

 

Jim Kubiak has an article up on TBN about it (I value his QB analysis every week, if you're unfamliar, and they have a Deal)

 

On the one hand, I see the point (haha): differential is a straightforward metric that asks if both offense and defense are Doing Their Job.  And it would be less nail-biting to see it be more consistent

 

On the other hand, I fall into the category that "a win is a win", no style points.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

 

I agree that a win is a win.

 

I doubt I'm alone with this opinion:  I'd much prefer a comfortable win than to allow an opponent to stay in the game.

 

I'm sure we all remember the 3rd Quarter Anemia trend that existed into last season.  But it also began trending differently prior to mid-season and continued to completely buck the original trend.  

 

For last year's wins, the point differential was as follows (in date order):

 

10

3

3

7

8

3

10

10

10

11

29

29

30

 

 

I'm guessing that, as the Bills began playing 4 quarters of offense instead of 3, this helped with the differentials.

 

I'd like to see more of a "go for the jugular," attitude from McDermott.  I don't believe in running a score up.  Go out there and kick every team's ass, I say.

 

 

 

Edited September 7, 2021 by Gugny

[Rochesterfan]

11 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Needs to be taken in context.  The Steelers were the other team being discussed in the point differential discussion last year.  And as @Mango mentioned they finished weak and were knocked out of the playoffs in embarrassing fashion.  The context to me is why point differential so close.  For us our D was injured and we got healthy the second half which resulted in us dominating teams.  For the Steelers it was a concern as they took a couple more injuries and their schedule got harder.  

 

Yet Cleveland was even worse in the point differential and played KC down to the wire.

 

I anticipate the Browns will struggle in the point differential again this year as a run first team, but they are getting a lot of play as SB contender.

 

I think in Football point Differential is the least helpful metric to looking at teams.  The sample size is small and with certain match-ups things can skew very quickly.  Miami was a strong positive point differential team last year - especially early as the defense dominated and created points and turnovers, but the they didn’t even make the playoffs and one game at the end completely flipped their entire point differential by getting absolutely crushed. 
 

I won’t say it can’t be meaningful, but in the NFL there are many significantly more important metrics.

 

 

[mannc]

51 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Difference between points scored and points allowed.

 

The Bills finished at +126, which is respectable at 7.9 ppg and higher than the Chiefs at 6.9 ppg

 

But that's largely driven by 3 games at the end of the season (Denver, NE, and Mia) where we kicked butt and took names.

In a lot of the early games, we barely squeaked by and of course, we got embarrassed in Tenn and by KC.

 

I seem to recall a bunch of regulars here sounding a warning note early in the season because our point differential was so slender, hovering close to 0 for 4 weeks before the bye.

 

Jim Kubiak has an article up on TBN about it (I value his QB analysis every week, if you're unfamliar, and they have a Deal)

 

On the one hand, I see the point (haha): differential is a straightforward metric that asks if both offense and defense are Doing Their Job.  And it would be less nail-biting to see it be more consistent

 

On the other hand, I fall into the category that "a win is a win", no style points.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

In a lot of the early games, we were up big, took our foot off the gas and allowed the other teams to move up and down the field, resulting in a fairly slim margin of vicotry, but where we badly outplayed the opponents. 

[YattaOkasan]

1 minute ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

Yet Cleveland was even worse in the point differential and played KC down to the wire.

 

I anticipate the Browns will struggle in the point differential again this year as a run first team, but they are getting a lot of play as SB contender.

 

I think in Football point Differential is the least helpful metric to looking at teams.  The sample size is small and with certain match-ups things can skew very quickly.  Miami was a strong positive point differential team last year - especially early as the defense dominated and created points and turnovers, but the they didn’t even make the playoffs and one game at the end completely flipped their entire point differential by getting absolutely crushed. 
 

I won’t say it can’t be meaningful, but in the NFL there are many significantly more important metrics.

 

 

 Im not a point differential stan but i do think it adds value.  I thought the steelers were a paper tiger and point differential was indicative there. Cleveland was worse in Point differential than us and left the playoffs earlier (is that what youre saying)?  doesnt that support point differential at predicting playoff success?

 

For Miami, there were some other metrics like FG, TO, and Defensive TDs that indicated a regression to me.  Overall though I i think point differential has done better than most.  What were the many more important metrics for predicting future success?