Week 1: Steelers at Bills

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

8 hours ago, Logic said:

I'll be in the stands, screaming my head off and banging on the seats. I'm a little nervous about going, for obvious reasons, but life is short and I love the Bills, so here we are.

It's gonna be an absolutely insane game day atmosphere. Sometimes, this Bills roster comes out a little bit too hyped up in situations like this. As much as it will negatively affect the Steelers, it won't surprise me if it negatively affects the Bills a little bit, too, at least in the first quarter.

While I think the Bills will have a great season and win 12 or so games, I am picking the Steelers to steal one here.

The Bills have beaten them the last two times out, sure, but this game feels different to me. Duck Hodges will not be the quarterback. We will be seeing Roethlisberger right at the start of the season, rather than later in the season, meaning that his arm should be fresher. The Steelers defense will be healthier than the last couple times we played them -- even though Stephon Tuitt being out is a big blow. Najee Harris should add a dimension to their offense that it lacked last year.

At the end of the day, Mike Tomlin is a great coach, Big Ben is a Hall of Fame quarterback, they have a great corps of offensive playmakers, and their defense is likely to be elite. As previously mentioned, I also expect our guys to be a little too hyper in front of the raucous crowd.

Ultimately, the Bills win 12 or 13 games, but week 1 isn't one of them. Steelers 23, Bills 19

 

This could happen. But it is equally plausible that the Bills win this game by 4 TD’s. We get a lead, pressure Ben (who has lost all mobility) , take Harris out of the game, and pour it on. 
 

I think the odds are probably somewhere in the middle of both extremes, more towards what the betting line is— Bills win by about 7-10 points. 

[billsherd]

Season Preview on right now on NFL Network.

[Blank Stare]

3 hours ago, eball said:

 

Agreed.  The "oh no, we're facing Fresh Ben" worry warts have become tiresome.

Do you have no respect for Ben as a QB any more then? For the record, I think the Bills should win. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest Ben may be a slightly more effective QB earlier in the year. They started off 11-0 last year. It wasn’t all an accident. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Just bought tix. I just can't stay away.

Lots of seats just came down in price. Check nfl ticket exchange. 

[YattaOkasan]

3 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Do you have no respect for Ben as a QB any more then? For the record, I think the Bills should win. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest Ben may be a slightly more effective QB earlier in the year. They started off 11-0 last year. It wasn’t all an accident. 

It wasn’t all accident cause a lot of close games particularly against weaker teams. They played nfc east and afc south last year.  They had the look of paper tiger before they lost it all against the football team. They almost lost to Andy dalton in prime time. 

[Blank Stare]

35 minutes ago, billsherd said:

Season Preview on right now on NFL Network.

And, right on cue, they’ve wedged the Cowboys into most of the segments so far. Between that and the incessant Bucs commercials (“no risk it, no biscuit” “Boy the biscuit tastes really good”), I’m struggling to hang in there. 

[Stank_Nasty]

4 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Do you have no respect for Ben as a QB any more then? For the record, I think the Bills should win. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to suggest Ben may be a slightly more effective QB earlier in the year. They started off 11-0 last year. It wasn’t all an accident. 

Do yourself a favor and go look at the teams and qb’s they faced during that start. Jeff driscal, Wentz, Daniel Jones, griffin, garret gilbert, Joe burrow,…. Jake freakin Lutton for god sakes. 
 

that team was a complete fraud and it showed up later. 

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

It wasn’t all accident cause a lot of close games particularly against weaker teams. They played nfc east and afc south last year.  They had the look of paper tiger before they lost it all against the football team. They almost lost to Andy dalton in prime time. 

It wasn’t even dalton. It was third stringer gilbert. 

[Blank Stare]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

It wasn’t all accident cause a lot of close games particularly against weaker teams. They played nfc east and afc south last year.  They had the look of paper tiger before they lost it all against the football team. They almost lost to Andy dalton in prime time. 

Oh, I agree. I think we can all agree they weren’t a strong 11-0 team who benefited from an easier schedule and good fortune. But earlier in the year, Ben was a more threatening passer than by the end. He was throwing almost nothing down the field later in the year. 

[Malazan]

The longer this TJ Watt thing goes on the better. 

[Blank Stare]

4 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Do yourself a favor and go look at the teams and qb’s they faced during that start. Jeff driscal, Wentz, Daniel Jones, griffin, garret gilbert, Joe burrow,…. Jake freakin Lutton for god sakes. 
 

that team was a complete fraud and it showed up later. 

It wasn’t even dalton. It was third stringer gilbert. 

What does that have to do with how well Ben played at the start of the year vs the end? Ben doesn’t play the opposing QB. Do yourself a favor and go look at the stats. Ben was more effective at the beginning of the year than the end. Facts. Its completely disingenuous to suggest otherwise. 

Edited September 8, 2021 by TheProcess

[billsherd]

NFL Game day season preview with Rich and the crew have been pretty kind to bills so far.

[YattaOkasan]

4 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Oh, I agree. I think we can all agree they weren’t a strong 11-0 team who benefited from an easier schedule and good fortune. But earlier in the year, Ben was a more threatening passer than by the end. He was throwing almost nothing down the field later in the year. 

Sure I don’t think it’s wrong to say that. I question if it’s that big of an effect though. That’s what I thought you meant with the 11-0 comment. Seems like we both agree they werent strong 11-0 and Ben is better at the start. I just don’t think he’s that much better to make much of a difference. 

[HappyDays]

 

[The Wiz]

6 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

 

Honestly amazed it wasn't a zoom call with juju doing an interpretive dance to answer the questions. 

[Coach Tuesday]

Watt will play on Sunday and will make an impact.

[MasterStrategist]

First thing people need to do, is forget what we saw Pitt do the last 2 years against us, or what we did against them.

 

Much different team, new offensive coordinator and a healthier group (albeit Tuitt).

 

That said, Canada is all about winning on the "possession downs". Expect healthy dose of rushing attack/screens/check downs to Najee, playaction (which they never ran last 2 seasons), pre-snap motions (like our offense) and alot of 3-step drops.

 

We need to counter by being aggressive, jamming their WRs (which has been an emphasis with our secondary this TC) and get Juju and Claypool frustrated, and keep Najee in check.  Blitzing on early downs to keep the sticks in our favor for 3rd downs.  Then stunt like crazy against that young oline on 3rd, try to overload/zone blitz and make their o-line confused.  Ben is good for holding that ball out 1-2x a game for a strip sack, need to take advantage of that.

 

Then offensively, find a way to keep Hayward out of the backfield and keep ourselves out of 3rd and long (their exotic/slot blitzes).  They are susceptible to the deep pass and think Sanders/Beas are I store for a potentially huge game (100 yr each).  I think they will try and bracket Diggs, but not sure it will matter he will get his touches.

 

Prediction: Bills-30 Steelers -20.  McKenzie breaks a long punt return (no Td, but 30+) and Edmunds tips a pass into the waiting arms of Hyde

[billsherd]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Hopefully Watt doesn't come angry to cause havoc, with a point to make to the front office.

[Stank_Nasty]

8 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

What does that have to do with how well Ben played at the start of the year vs the end? Ben doesn’t play the opposing QB. Do yourself a favor and go look at the stats. Ben was more effective at the beginning of the year than the end. Facts. Its completely disingenuous to suggest otherwise. 

My point was it seemed you try to fall back on their record as an argument that Ben was significantly better the first part of the year. I would argue the teams they played had much more to do with that record than his slightly better play. 
 

 

[Blank Stare]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Sure I don’t think it’s wrong to say that. I question if it’s that big of an effect though. That’s what I thought you meant with the 11-0 comment. Seems like we both agree they werent strong 11-0 and Ben is better at the start. I just don’t think he’s that much better to make much of a difference. 

Fair take. I’m not saying he’ll come out looking like the Ben of old. He’s definitely getting close to the end. To a competitor, particularly at the most elite level of the sport, when you’re questioned all off season about whether you’re washed, I’m only saying I think we’ll get his best on Sunday. What his best actually is at this stage of his career is completely up for debate.

Seems I’m on the slightly more optimistic end of that than most on here. Which is all completely fair. Best part is, we’ll all find out on Sunday. Believe me, I hope he face plants and throws 4 picks and we roll, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he plays well and it’s a close game. 

Just now, Stank_Nasty said:

My point was it seemed you try to fall back on their record as an argument that Ben was significantly better the first part of the year. I would argue the teams they played had much more to do with that record than his slightly better play. 
 

 

Fair. I probably didn’t word it all that great. So that’s on me. 

[billsherd]

32 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

And, right on cue, they’ve wedged the Cowboys into most of the segments so far. Between that and the incessant Bucs commercials (“no risk it, no biscuit” “Boy the biscuit tastes really good”), I’m struggling to hang in there. 

Did you have your biscuit or did you risk it? So when did this start with the BUCS? Hearing it first time today.