Calling it now: Devin will be a 1000 yard back this year

[Buffalo716]

2 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

1 FL in 8 fumbles is sorta not random.  If its 50/50 for a recovery (I think odds are worse, but having trouble finding data) then i get a p factor 0.04.  Thats statistically significant (despite a small data set of 8).  So his fumble loss rate is not necessarily random.

Thats amazing.  First glance i threw up because of the song.  But the histogrm was great.

Fumble recovery is absolutely random

 

There are a million factors

 

How many players are around the ball, where you fumble, is it getting kicked around... Are you near the sidelines

 

If you fumble the ball and you have three teammates around you of course you're going to have a better chance at recovering it , than if it's you and 3 opponents

[LeGOATski]

5 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

1 FL in 8 fumbles is sorta not random.  If its 50/50 for a recovery (I think odds are worse, but having trouble finding data) then i get a p factor 0.04.  Thats statistically significant (despite a small data set of 8).  So his fumble loss rate is not necessarily random.

Thats amazing.  First glance i threw up because of the song.  But the histogrm was great.

This just means that he's more likely to lose the next one.... ☹️

[YattaOkasan]

12 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

Fumble recovery is absolutely random

 

There are a million factors

 

How many players are around the ball, where you fumble, is it getting kicked around... Are you near the sidelines

 

If you fumble the ball and you have three teammates around you of course you're going to have a better chance at recovering it , than if it's you and 3 opponents

At this point (again small sample size), the data does not support that its random for him.

9 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

This just means that he's more likely to lose the next one.... ☹️

Not how it works.  If I flip a coin 100 times in row as heads.  Does that make it more likely that my next flip is tails?

 

Offensive recovery is slightly greater than 50/50 (54%) on average.  This may increase the probability enough to be greater than 0.05 which would make it not necessarily statistically significant.  

Edited September 21, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[LeGOATski]

This guy analyzes fumbles every season, apparently... http://www.footballperspective.com/the-chargers-had-the-worst-fumble-luck-in-2019/#more-45909

5 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Not how it works.  If I flip a coin 100 times in row as heads.  Does that make it more likely that my next flip is tails?

I know... my post was in jest

 

It's still random.

[YattaOkasan]

2 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

He fumbled it and lost in the playoff game vs. Houston.

Thanks.  That would def make him not being doing anything different than normal.  And more likely hes just lucky.  Not sure how I missed as I was compiling data (cause his splits are still 8/2).

[dave mcbride]

Just now, YattaOkasan said:

Thanks.  That would def make him not being doing anything different than normal.  And more likely hes just lucky.  Not sure how I missed as I was compiling data (cause his splits are still 8/2).

I was wrong about that - I misremembered. He didn't fumble in that game. Sorry!

[YattaOkasan]

6 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I was wrong about that - I misremembered. He didn't fumble in that game. Sorry!

Still caused me to recheck my data set, and there was one I missed.  8/2 would fall within random variability.  My question at this point is about the recovery rate for offense.  Does that mean they jump on the ball or does it include the OBs.  Singeltary does have 1 FR (I believe for his own fumble).  If its the former (offense jumps on the ball) Singeltary has been unlucky in recoveries.  

 

On average, the fumbling team recovered (or the ball went out of bounds, so the fumbling team retained possession) 53.5% of all fumbles in 2019. 

http://www.footballperspective.com/tag/fumbles/

 

Appears its the former so Singeltary is lucky @Buffalo716.  Though 3 more fumbles without a FL would push back towards non random space.

Edited September 21, 2021 by YattaOkasan

[QCity]

Calling out a RB hitting the 1,000 yard mark is sort of like predicting a QB hitting the 3,000 passing yard mark. It was great in the 1980's, but in today's game it doesn't really mean anything.

[MJS]

2 minutes ago, QCity said:

Calling out a RB hitting the 1,000 yard mark is sort of like predicting a QB hitting the 3,000 passing yard mark. It was great in the 1980's, but in today's game it doesn't really mean anything.

It does mean something these days with the decrease in running and increase in passing, as well as the more popular approach of running back by committee.

 

There were only 8 running backs to rush for 1,000 yards or more last year. In 1977, when there were only 14 games, there were 9. So I would contend that it is nearly as impressive today as it was back then given the changes of NFL offenses.

[Alphadawg7]

On 9/3/2021 at 4:42 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

I know, I know…we are a passing team and have a RB by committee type approach on paper.
 

But…I think we are going to see Devin actually be used more as a lead back than people think.  Moss will also still get touches, with Brieda likely being peppered in some too.

But I think Devin will average around 15 carries a game.  And with his career YPC  of 4.8 YPC that would put him at 1152 yards on a 16 game season, and 1224 on a 17 game season.

Ive been drafting Singletary late in FFL because he’s been available in every draft I’ve done in the later rounds with Moss always going ahead of him too.  But barring injury, I think that Devin is going to out touch Moss by a bigger margin than many expect.  
 

And to be clear, that’s not a knock on Moss by any means, I just think Singletary is going to be a break out player for us this year.  People forget in his rookie year, despite splitting carries, he was in the top 10 in most 20+ Yard runs, and averaged over 5 YPC.  Last year, coaches talked about how lack of camp hurt him, especially conditioning. 
 

Well this year he’s in the best shape of his life and I think he looks substantially better so far than he did last year and is going to be our most effective RB with Moss working more to spell him or down and short situations.  Brieda, if active on game days (skeptical you they will have 5 active RBs on game day) will be more of a receiving back in passing situations.

 

 

Sooooo…Devin did eclipse 1000 total yards, but came up a little over 100 yards short on 1000 rushing yards.   But that is only because Daboll didn’t pull his head out his back side until the final 4 games where they finally both featured Devin (71 Carry’s Over final 4 games) and ran the ball.  
 

But everything I said in my OP and thought mostly ended up being accurate, just Daboll didn’t realize it until 4 weeks ago unfortunately otherwise Devin would have gone way over 1000 yards had he been used like this past 4 weeks all season.  So still feel good about this thread.  
 

Maybe Daboll should follow me on TSW🤣😂🤣 

 

PS:  Maybe now people will give Devin more respect and the props he deserves.  He’s clearly our best RB and a weapon for this offense.

 

Project his last 4 games (average if 19 Carey’s a game) over a full season:  1374 yards rushing and 21 TDs.  
 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[WotAGuy]

Calling it now -there’s gonna be more Alpha LAMP threads.  

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

100O yards over 17 games isn’t some awesome achievement TBH

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

100O yards over 17 games isn’t some awesome achievement TBH

If you project Devins last 4 games over a whole season it projects to be 1374 yards rushing, 21 TDs over a 17 game season.  
 

And that’s with Devin averaging just 19 Carry’s a game.  
 

You don’t think that’s impressive? 

 

 

Edited January 10, 2022 by Alphadawg7

[transplantbillsfan]

Honestly, he probably should've been over 1000 yards rushing on his own if we didn't commit so much ridiculous time to Zach Moss, who is terrible.

[Nelius]

He ended up with a nice 4.6 ypc for the year, which he steadily maintained pretty much all season. His career average is still 4.7 which is dang good for nearly 500 career carries. He definitely could have hit 1,000 if he was featured more earlier in the year, that's just math.

Edited January 10, 2022 by Nelius

[jlgarsh]

57 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Sooooo…Devin did eclipse 1000 total yards, but came up a little over 100 yards short on 1000 rushing yards.   But that is only because Daboll didn’t pull his head out his back side until the final 4 games where they finally both featured Devin (71 Carry’s Over final 4 games) and ran the ball.  
 

But everything I said in my OP and thought mostly ended up being accurate, just Daboll didn’t realize it until 4 weeks ago unfortunately otherwise Devin would have gone way over 1000 yards had he been used like this past 4 weeks all season.  So still feel good about this thread.  
 

Maybe Daboll should follow me on TSW🤣😂🤣 

 

PS:  Maybe now people will give Devin more respect and the props he deserves.  He’s clearly our best RB and a weapon for this offense.

 

Project his last 4 games (average if 19 Carey’s a game) over a full season:  1374 yards rushing and 21 TDs.  
 

 

I think Bates being in at LG has tremendously helped the running game. Wish they’d started him sooner, regardless of his versatility. Also, hats off the Mitch Morse for playing all 17 games after almost needing to retire. Lastly, great job Singletary turning his season around and dominating this last month!!!

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Sooooo…Devin did eclipse 1000 total yards, but came up a little over 100 yards short on 1000 rushing yards.   But that is only because Daboll didn’t pull his head out his back side until the final 4 games where they finally both featured Devin (71 Carry’s Over final 4 games) and ran the ball.  
 

But everything I said in my OP and thought mostly ended up being accurate, just Daboll didn’t realize it until 4 weeks ago unfortunately otherwise Devin would have gone way over 1000 yards had he been used like this past 4 weeks all season.  So still feel good about this thread.  
 

Maybe Daboll should follow me on TSW🤣😂🤣 

 

PS:  Maybe now people will give Devin more respect and the props he deserves.  He’s clearly our best RB and a weapon for this offense.

 

Project his last 4 games (average if 19 Carey’s a game) over a full season:  1374 yards rushing and 21 TDs.  
 

 

 

Hoping he doesn't have his usual key drop on a potential huge gain in the playoffs again like he has had in the last 2 playoff runs.

[ArtVandalay]

Antonio Williams would have had 2,000 yards 

[ganesh]

4 hours ago, AlCowlingsTaxiService said:

100O yards over 17 games isn’t some awesome achievement TBH

and this year is weird....there are only 7. 1000 yard RBs and some of them barely made it past the 1000 mark.

 

Player Yards/TD

Taylor. 1811/18

Chubb 1259/8

Mixon.  1205/13

Harris.  1200/7

Cook.   1159/6

Gibson 1037/7

Eliott.   1002/10

 

Weird to not see familiar faces such as Barkley, Kamara,  Fournette, etc.

[Chandler#81]

Ya done good, A-dawg!