Calling it now: Devin will be a 1000 yard back this year

[Alphadawg7]

57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I do think he will have a bounce back a bit from last year. By the end of last season Moss was this team's more trusted back. That flips back I reckon and Devin has looked good in pre-season but for Devin to get 15 carries per game... Moss will get at least 6 or 7.... I just don't see this team being a 25 rush per game team. 

 

I could see his carry number up somewhere near 200 on the year (he has been around 150 the last two years, but the extra game, him playing all 16 and taking a few carries back from Moss... I think 180 to 200 carries) and at a career average of 4.8 (though that is still heavily influenced by his first 5 games as a pro, he averaged 4.4 yards last year) would get him 900 yards plus. 

 

So not completely impossible he gets 1,000 and I also drafted him late for one of my teams (that since drafting has lost JK Dobbins ) but I suspect just under 1,000 and for fantasy I do worry Moss nicks goalline (as will Allen and maybe Gilliam). 

 

 

Aaron Jones had over 1100 yards last year on 190 carries  

 

And yeah TDs may get vultured

[Bookie Man]

Well crap I drafted Moss late. 

 

This team is hard to gauge fantasy wise. Outside of Allen, Diggs and Beasley(ppr), who is going to put up numbers? Sanders or Davis? Either could easily put up 1000 yards or just as well 600. Same thing with Moss and Singletary. But I agree, Motor has looked good in preseason and is running with purpose it seems. Going back I probably would have drafted DS over Moss.

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Aaron Jones had over 1100 yards last year on 190 carries  

 

And yeah TDs may get vultured

 

 

Jones got 201 attempts, and the next back got 119. Think Singletary will get almost twice the carries Moss gets?

 

GB RBs (including tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams) totalled 381 carries. Where ours, including Antonio Williams and Yeldon, had 290. Think we're going to run 31% more also?

 

If you do think those two things, you might well think Singletary might do that. I would totally disagree.

 

 

 

Edited September 4, 2021 by Thurman#1

[Chandler#81]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Aaron Jones had over 1100 yards last year on 190 carries  

 

And yeah TDs may get vultured

Dawg, I applaud your convictions and am impressed with the way you handle yourself, whether your predictions materialize or not. To me, you’re a Stand Up guy. 
I get the additional game X ~ 48ypg aspect and yes, Motor looks to have ‘arrived’. 
2 points of contention:

*The 1000 yd rushing season which has always been a marker for RBs has been significantly diminished since the League went to 16 games, to say nothing of a 17th now.

* This team ‘runs’ through Allen -literally and figuratively. Motor has proven himself a fine receiver and I expect this aspect of his game to be further featured this season and going forward.

 

You may well be correct in your prediction. I’d love to see an effective running game introduced in our Air Allen Offense, if only to eat time when comfortably ahead.  But a ‘K-Season’ just doesn’t mean much anymore.

[Saxum]

I do not think he will get that many yards because the OL is not that good at run blocking.

I think the Bills have been sacrificing ability to run block with ability to pass block on the line as well as OL scheme.

This is partly why Quittin Spain became less effective after getting a good size extension.

[The Firebaugh Kid]

He looks like a new man out there. Fingers crossed he can channel his inner Thurman, we're gonna need him. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I know, I know…we are a passing team and have a RB by committee type approach on paper.
 

But…I think we are going to see Devin actually be used more as a lead back than people think.  Moss will also still get touches, with Brieda likely being peppered in some too.

But I think Devin will average around 15 carries a game.  And with his career YPC  of 4.8 YPC that would put him at 1152 yards on a 16 game season, and 1224 on a 17 game season.

Ive been drafting Singletary late in FFL because he’s been available in every draft I’ve done in the later rounds with Moss always going ahead of him too.  But barring injury, I think that Devin is going to out touch Moss by a bigger margin than many expect.  
 

And to be clear, that’s not a knock on Moss by any means, I just think Singletary is going to be a break out player for us this year.  People forget in his rookie year, despite splitting carries, he was in the top 10 in most 20+ Yard runs, and averaged over 5 YPC.  Last year, coaches talked about how lack of camp hurt him, especially conditioning. 
 

Well this year he’s in the best shape of his life and I think he looks substantially better so far than he did last year and is going to be our most effective RB with Moss working more to spell him or down and short situations.  Brieda, if active on game days (skeptical you they will have 5 active RBs on game day) will be more of a receiving back in passing situations.

 

With the addition of a 17th game that comes to 58.8 yards a game (if healthy for all 17). 1000 yard seasons aren't really that impressive even in a pass priority offense. I'll go as far to say he had better step it up last that range or Beane needs to be RB hunting next season.

[TampaBillsJunkie]

I think you are assuming right, especially with game 17.

 

If Devin doesn't have an injury he needs 59 yds a game. If he averages 4.5 yds per carry he needs 13 carries per game.  4.0 yds per carry = 15 carries.

With an average of 75 plays per game, we should rush about 25.  Thats 66% passing 33% rushing.  If we go 75% passing that is still 19 rushing plays. 

Devin would need about 13 of 19 carries or most likely 14/15 of 25.

 

I think he gets those carries, especially if we are controlling the clock in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

 

[Not at the table Karlos]

14 hours ago, Gambit said:

That would be awesome but I highly doubt he even reaches 1000 all purpose yds.

He was 44 yards short last year with terrible run blocking and there's an extra game. He averages 962 yards a 16 game season. 60 yards a game. Add a game there's your 1000

Edited September 4, 2021 by Not at the table Karlos

[buffaloboyinATL]

I see more like 1,200 all purpose yards for Singletary, in an 800 rushing, 400 receiving, type split. Which I’ll consider a great year for him. 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

Aaron Jones had over 1100 yards last year on 190 carries  

 

And yeah TDs may get vultured

 

I think Aaron Jones > Devin Singletary though and that is a scheme built off the run. I don't think 1,000 is impossible for Devin but I think the odds are against it.

[Dr. Who]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Aaron Jones > Devin Singletary though and that is a scheme built off the run. I don't think 1,000 is impossible for Devin but I think the odds are against it.

Yes, right. I think receiving yards out of the backfield are important for this explosive offense to become even more dangerous.

[Alphadawg7]

31 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Aaron Jones > Devin Singletary though and that is a scheme built off the run. I don't think 1,000 is impossible for Devin but I think the odds are against it.

I wasn’t comparing them talent wise, I was referencing the amount of carries it took to get to over 1000 yards.  You said you can see Devin getting 200 carries, and Jones got 190 and eclipsed 1000 yards.  And Aaron Jones YPC last year was the same as Singletary rookie year.  
 

Not about whose better, it’s a simple math equation based on the numbers you just said.

Edited September 4, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Patrick Duffy]

Long as the rushing game improves all around then I'm happy. As we all know, even with the deadly passing attack they have, good ground game will make it even more difficult to defend than it already is.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, TampaBillsJunkie said:

I think you are assuming right, especially with game 17.

 

If Devin doesn't have an injury he needs 59 yds a game. If he averages 4.5 yds per carry he needs 13 carries per game.  4.0 yds per carry = 15 carries.

With an average of 75 plays per game, we should rush about 25.  Thats 66% passing 33% rushing.  If we go 75% passing that is still 19 rushing plays. 

Devin would need about 13 of 19 carries or most likely 14/15 of 25.

 

I think he gets those carries, especially if we are controlling the clock in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

 

Im a math guy, and this is exactly how I think about this situation and what spurned my post.  Good post!

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Jones got 201 attempts, and the next back got 119. Think Singletary will get almost twice the carries Moss gets?

 

GB RBs (including tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams) totalled 381 carries. Where ours, including Antonio Williams and Yeldon, had 290. Think we're going to run 31% more also?

 

If you do think those two things, you might well think Singletary might do that. I would totally disagree.

 

 

 

Yes I do think there is going to a large gap between number of carries of Singletary and Moss.  And the Packers 2 backup RBs last year, Williams and Dillon are better than Moss and Brieda...and they still had a wide split in GB.  
 

Moss will get touches, as he’s a good RB too, but I think Singletary is going to play much more of a lead back role than people think with Moss handling more inside running and down and short stuff.  Brieda I am not convinced is going to see a lot of gameday action now that they kept Taiwan Jones just because I am skeptical they will keep 5 active RB's on gameday.  They only kept 4 before, and Giliam I expect will definitely be active given he is also the emergency TE.   
 

I get it, people are hung up on last year.  But I think the Singletary we saw as a rookie is a MUCH better representation of who he truly is as a RB.  
 

Coaches flat out said last years lack of camp and preseason hurt some players and specifically referenced Singletary and the impact it had on his conditioning.  And Singletary responded and came back to camp in the best shape of his life and seems determined to put up his beat season yet and prove he’s a starting RB.  He knows this is his year to do it given they considered taking yet another RB early this past draft and signed a Vet in Brieda too.  
 

So yeah, I can’t see them taking him out of games constantly if he’s playing great and hitting near 5 ypc again. 

Edited September 4, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Rc2catch]

I do think with an improved defense and a deadly offense we will not be in as close of games this year as years past. 
If motor stays healthy him and Moss could put up some good numbers. It’s an interesting topic to follow throughout the season. I have to think teams are fully invested in game planning to stop our aerial attack weekly 

[purple haze]

I think Singletary will play very well, but I doubt he gets 1G.  They just don’t choose to run that often.  If it happens it will be because of the defense.

 

Offense will score points.   If the defense doesn’t give points back to the other team and the opposing team stays blown out, McD and Daboll will definitely grind out the clock at that point.   But Miss and Gilliam would probably get most of that work.

[Saxum]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think Aaron Jones > Devin Singletary though and that is a scheme built off the run. I don't think 1,000 is impossible for Devin but I think the odds are against it.

 

I think if he gets that many yards it is because other things do not go well - WRs being blanketed by DBs able to contact like in Chiefs game, Josh injured so a lot more running, etc.

[K-9]

A bold prediction to be sure considering it’s been several seasons without a 1k rusher and we’ve since become a pass first offense. While I doubt it will happen, if Singletary does end up with a thousand yards, I predict we will only have lost two games and that the old axiom “pass to score, run to win” will have proved true once again.