Who Would the AAC Steal?

[BillsfaninSB]

If UCF, Cincinnati and Houston go to the Big 12, who would the AAC go after?

[PromoTheRobot]

Why not Buffalo? They could use a Northeast school to replace UConn. Top public college in New York. Good at football and basketball. Buffalo is a top 60 TV market and the alumni base includes NYC metro. UB would be a great fit in the AAC.

[May Day 10]

Buffalo would be a slam dunk IMO if they were adding multiple teams from the AAC standpoint, but it seems like a strange location for Buffalo to desire TBH.  Without those 3 teams (and UConn), the AAC loses a lot of luster, at least enough to justify an arduous travel situation.

 

It is probably a step up from the MAC, but how large?  

 

I wonder what is going to happen between the MAC, MWC, CUsa, AAC, and the Sunbelt.  You would think some sort of shuffling is bound to happen?  If so, I would think Buffalo should be primed to land on their feet in an 'upper tier' class/conference of those teams.  That is, if they desire to. 

 

 

You also wonder at what point some of the weakest links in some of these power conferences may be culled to either increase the piece of the pie for the better programs, and/or bring on a team who is more appealing.  (The Rutgers, Washington State, Vanderbilts, Oregon States of the world).

 

Edited September 3, 2021 by May Day 10

[BillsfaninSB]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

Why not Buffalo? They could use a Northeast school to replace UConn. Top public college in New York. Good at football and basketball. Buffalo is a top 60 TV market and the alumni base includes NYC metro. UB would be a great fit in the AAC.

Not sure about the money but it feels like a lateral move.  With those 3 teams gone it actually feels like a downgrade plus more traveling. 
 

I’m thinking they have to look to schools like Troy or Appalachian State. 

[PromoTheRobot]

No one knows what the future of college football looks like but right now the only realistic upgrade moves for UB are Conference USA or the American. The B1G Ten makes some sense (location, academics, TV market) but I can't see them taking a MAC school as a new member. Could the Big 12 pick Buffalo? It would give West Virginia a regional rival.

[That's No Moon]

19 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

No one knows what the future of college football looks like but right now the only realistic upgrade moves for UB are Conference USA or the American. The B1G Ten makes some sense (location, academics, TV market) but I can't see them taking a MAC school as a new member. Could the Big 12 pick Buffalo? It would give West Virginia a regional rival.

Conferences shop for schools that give them a recruiting footprint and/or TV market access. UB isn't one of those schools so it's not going to be on anyone's short list to add. They will be one of the schools that are leftover and fill up conferences like the MAC. They are competitive in the MAC, they can be competitive in that conference in the short and long term. The Big 12? UB is going up against Texas and Baylor and Oklahoma St and West Virginia in football but also basketball? They'd be roadkill. The Big 10 would be worse. It's a good school but it doesn't have anywhere near the athletic facilities to recruit against even someone like Rutgers let alone Penn State or Michigan or Ohio State.

 

FWIW, I have to think West Virginia would like to get into the ACC to realign with Pitt and VA Tech, etc. Big 12 and WVA never made sense.

Edited September 4, 2021 by That's No Moon

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, That's No Moon said:

Conferences shop for schools that give them a recruiting footprint and/or TV market access. UB isn't one of those schools so it's not going to be on anyone's short list to add. They will be one of the schools that are leftover and fill up conferences like the MAC. They are competitive in the MAC, they can be competitive in that conference in the short and long term. The Big 12? UB is going up against Texas and Baylor and Oklahoma St and West Virginia in football but also basketball? They'd be roadkill. The Big 10 would be worse. It's a good school but it doesn't have anywhere near the athletic facilities to recruit against even someone like Rutgers let alone Penn State or Michigan or Ohio State.

 

FWIW, I have to think West Virginia would like to get into the ACC to realign with Pitt and VA Tech, etc. Big 12 and WVA never made sense.

 

But Buffalo would be a good fit in the AAC now that they are losing 3 members to the Big 12.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2021/09/03/big-12-conference-new-schools-join-byu-houston-ucf-cincinnati/5721822001/

[That's No Moon]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

But Buffalo would be a good fit in the AAC now that they are losing 3 members to the Big 12.

 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2021/09/03/big-12-conference-new-schools-join-byu-houston-ucf-cincinnati/5721822001/

I dont agree with that either. They'd be recruiting against Cincinnati, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, East Carolina, SMU. The travel is terrible and they'd still get wrecked. They are in the correct conference for them and their level of commitment to athletics. 

[PromoTheRobot]

4 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

I dont agree with that either. They'd be recruiting against Cincinnati, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, East Carolina, SMU. The travel is terrible and they'd still get wrecked. They are in the correct conference for them and their level of commitment to athletics. 

 

I think your looking at where they are now versus the trajectory of the program. I can't speak for the administration, or SUNY that has traditionally deemphasized athletics, but they have worked steadily to raise the profile of their program. To say that winning in the MAC is their peak is pretty demoralizing. As a university UB belongs with other B1G Ten schools. Athletically they don't, yet. The idea of being peers with Central Michigan, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green forever it's just depressing.

[That's No Moon]

5 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

I think your looking at where they are now versus the trajectory of the program. I can't speak for the administration, or SUNY that has traditionally deemphasized athletics, but they have worked steadily to raise the profile of their program. To say that winning in the MAC is their peak is pretty demoralizing. As a university UB belongs with other B1G Ten schools. Athletically they don't, yet. The idea of being peers with Central Michigan, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green forever it's just depressing.

If they want to be big the investment in facilities goes up a lot. Like exponentially. Penn State has an 80 million dollar hockey arena, a 100,000 seat football stadium, a really nice new lacrosse field, and the Bryce Jordan center and nice facilities for all of the other sports as well. On top of that the training facilities are top notch. That is the Big 10 level. They aren't close. 

 

They are doing well with respect to their current conference because compared to Akron or Bowling Green, Amherst can be pretty appealing. The school is good and the facilities stack up well against those people. To recruit against the current AAC means recruiting against Tampa, Memphis, Dallas, Philadelphia, New Orleans, etc. What's going to be your sell to the athlete as a growing program? You can't sell tradition, you can't sell facilities unless they build a ton of them, you really can't sell the weather compared to some of your competition, you can't sell market exposure. There isn't really a community of alumns who are willing to pony up big NIL money to buy recruits.

[gonzo1105]

On 9/3/2021 at 10:56 AM, May Day 10 said:

Buffalo would be a slam dunk IMO if they were adding multiple teams from the AAC standpoint, but it seems like a strange location for Buffalo to desire TBH.  Without those 3 teams (and UConn), the AAC loses a lot of luster, at least enough to justify an arduous travel situation.

 

It is probably a step up from the MAC, but how large?  

 

I wonder what is going to happen between the MAC, MWC, CUsa, AAC, and the Sunbelt.  You would think some sort of shuffling is bound to happen?  If so, I would think Buffalo should be primed to land on their feet in an 'upper tier' class/conference of those teams.  That is, if they desire to. 

 

 

You also wonder at what point some of the weakest links in some of these power conferences may be culled to either increase the piece of the pie for the better programs, and/or bring on a team who is more appealing.  (The Rutgers, Washington State, Vanderbilts, Oregon States of the world).

 

I believe that the AAC makes about 7 million dollars more per team than the MAC as it currently stands. I think UB should make that push to go to the AAC and may need Temple to push for them strongly. 

 

I think Buffalo would be a team considered but the attendance numbers that Buffalo produces aren’t appealing. Plus if I was the AAC I’d focus on continuing the push for top level upcoming football programs. 
 

If I’m going after 4 teams I’m looking at App State, Coastal Carolina and Boise for sure(prob won’t happen but take that shot on Boise). I’d also settle for Army, Navy, Marshall, Toledo. Buffalo would be in the mix but I don’t think they’d be in the top 7 options or so to replace those 4 schools

[BillsfaninSB]

On 9/4/2021 at 5:08 AM, That's No Moon said:

Conferences shop for schools that give them a recruiting footprint and/or TV market access. UB isn't one of those schools so it's not going to be on anyone's short list to add. They will be one of the schools that are leftover and fill up conferences like the MAC. They are competitive in the MAC, they can be competitive in that conference in the short and long term. The Big 12? UB is going up against Texas and Baylor and Oklahoma St and West Virginia in football but also basketball? They'd be roadkill. The Big 10 would be worse. It's a good school but it doesn't have anywhere near the athletic facilities to recruit against even someone like Rutgers let alone Penn State or Michigan or Ohio State.

 

FWIW, I have to think West Virginia would like to get into the ACC to realign with Pitt and VA Tech, etc. Big 12 and WVA never made sense.

Cincinnati joining the Big 12 will help that odd connection with WV. 

[PromoTheRobot]

On 9/4/2021 at 11:06 AM, That's No Moon said:

I don't agree with that either. They'd be recruiting against Cincinnati, South Florida, Temple, Tulane, East Carolina, SMU. The travel is terrible and they'd still get wrecked. They are in the correct conference for them and their level of commitment to athletics. 

 

They got wrecked for years in the MAC. It's the price of moving up. UB has a good rep now, especially with assistant coaches looking to be head coaches. Just look at the staff Mo Linguist assembled. It's obvious that Mo expects success and to move on in a year or two, and his successor, and their successors, are on the staff in waiting. As for travel, they can't move up to any decent conference without increasing travel. So if that scares you away what's the point of building a program? Again, don't look at what UB is now. Look at their trajectory. If I said they'd be nationally ranked ten years ago, you'd say I was high. 

[That's No Moon]

6 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

They got wrecked for years in the MAC. It's the price of moving up. UB has a good rep now, especially with assistant coaches looking to be head coaches. Just look at the staff Mo Linguist assembled. It's obvious that Mo expects success and to move on in a year or two, and his successor, and their successors, are on the staff in waiting. As for travel, they can't move up to any decent conference without increasing travel. So if that scares you away what's the point of building a program? Again, don't look at what UB is now. Look at their trajectory. If I said they'd be nationally ranked ten years ago, you'd say I was high. 

If that's where the administration wants to go then they better be rounding up their donors and expanding their booster base to pay for the upgrades they will need to compete.

 

Football is both a blessing and a curse. In basketball they could probably move to the A-10 without much difficulty but that's not a football conference. Finding a home that is beneficial for both programs is not easy and the reality is that, even at the biggest schools, athletics as a whole lose money. For example, at Penn State, football and men's basketball make money, men's hockey breaks even. Everything else loses money. In some cases a lot, largely because of the required air travel and lack of tv money. Football needs a plane to get to Tampa to play South Florida, SMU etc, so do all the other sports. It racks up fast.

[SirAndrew]

On 9/4/2021 at 8:54 PM, That's No Moon said:

If they want to be big the investment in facilities goes up a lot. Like exponentially. Penn State has an 80 million dollar hockey arena, a 100,000 seat football stadium, a really nice new lacrosse field, and the Bryce Jordan center and nice facilities for all of the other sports as well. On top of that the training facilities are top notch. That is the Big 10 level. They aren't close. 

 

They are doing well with respect to their current conference because compared to Akron or Bowling Green, Amherst can be pretty appealing. The school is good and the facilities stack up well against those people. To recruit against the current AAC means recruiting against Tampa, Memphis, Dallas, Philadelphia, New Orleans, etc. What's going to be your sell to the athlete as a growing program? You can't sell tradition, you can't sell facilities unless they build a ton of them, you really can't sell the weather compared to some of your competition, you can't sell market exposure. There isn't really a community of alumns who are willing to pony up big NIL money to buy recruits.

Recruiting at a Big 10 level would be difficult for UB imo. NYS doesn’t have enough high level talent. You’re instantly at a disadvantage because you have little in state talent to choose from, which forces the school to compete out of state. The Midwest Big 10 schools have decent in state talent, and enough of a reputation to compete elsewhere. UB would be stuck as a Rutgers type football school. 

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, SirAndrew said:

Recruiting at a Big 10 level would be difficult for UB imo. NYS doesn’t have enough high level talent. You’re instantly at a disadvantage because you have little in state talent to choose from, which forces the school to compete out of state. The Midwest Big 10 schools have decent in state talent, and enough of a reputation to compete elsewhere. UB would be stuck as a Rutgers type football school. 

 

It's worth noting UB pounded Rutgers the last time they played. As for recruiting in NYS, the new head coach Mo Linguist, who made a name for himself as a recruiter, has upped recruitment in the region because he felt a lot of talent was being overlooked.

[That's No Moon]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

It's worth noting UB pounded Rutgers the last time they played. As for recruiting in NYS, the new head coach Mo Linguist, who made a name for himself as a recruiter, has upped recruitment in the region because he felt a lot of talent was being overlooked.

Rutgers in the Big10 has been an absolute disaster for Rutgers in terms of being competitive.  The Big10 wants them in because it gives them the NYC media market and, frankly, that's the only reason they are there. Rutgers has been a doormat the vast majority of their time in the conference because they haven't been able to compete at that level. They haven't been able to consistently recruit for squat and NJ gets raided for talent all the time.

 

One other thing we haven't spoken about a lot is what conferences are looking for when adding schools.  It's not always about the school or quality of competition they would bring, it's very often about what TV and media markets do those teams bring because that it what drives the big money for the conferences. I'm going to leave the Big 10 alone because it's not worth discussing any time soon. Let's stick with the AAC. They will lose Houston, Orlando, and Cincinnati.  That's, in order, the #8, #17, and #36 media markets in the US. Buffalo is #53.  That's a major downgrade when teams like UNC Charlotte (#22), UNLV (#40), Florida Atlantic (#18 and #39), Rice (#8), UT San Antonio (#31), San Diego St (#27), Air Force (#16 and #82 + a nationwide following to add to Navy), Army (#1 + a nationwide following to add to Navy) are all out there to be recruited. If you want to talk about an upcoming program who would be looking to move up who has made a MASSIVE commitment to athletics across the board recently it would be Liberty.  Their market size is smaller at #71 so, again, they wouldn't be top choice, but if they could snag UNC Charlotte to go along with them and add to East Carolina it would make a lot of sense.

[PromoTheRobot]

7 hours ago, That's No Moon said:

Rutgers in the Big10 has been an absolute disaster for Rutgers in terms of being competitive.  The Big10 wants them in because it gives them the NYC media market and, frankly, that's the only reason they are there. Rutgers has been a doormat the vast majority of their time in the conference because they haven't been able to compete at that level. They haven't been able to consistently recruit for squat and NJ gets raided for talent all the time.

 

One other thing we haven't spoken about a lot is what conferences are looking for when adding schools.  It's not always about the school or quality of competition they would bring, it's very often about what TV and media markets do those teams bring because that it what drives the big money for the conferences. I'm going to leave the Big 10 alone because it's not worth discussing any time soon. Let's stick with the AAC. They will lose Houston, Orlando, and Cincinnati.  That's, in order, the #8, #17, and #36 media markets in the US. Buffalo is #53.  That's a major downgrade when teams like UNC Charlotte (#22), UNLV (#40), Florida Atlantic (#18 and #39), Rice (#8), UT San Antonio (#31), San Diego St (#27), Air Force (#16 and #82 + a nationwide following to add to Navy), Army (#1 + a nationwide following to add to Navy) are all out there to be recruited. If you want to talk about an upcoming program who would be looking to move up who has made a MASSIVE commitment to athletics across the board recently it would be Liberty.  Their market size is smaller at #71 so, again, they wouldn't be top choice, but if they could snag UNC Charlotte to go along with them and add to East Carolina it would make a lot of sense.

 

Buffalo counts as media market #1 too because of a  significant alumni base downstate. Certainly more than Rutgers.

[May Day 10]

I think the best bet would be to continue in the MAC and keep trying to build and wait for another shakeup which is going to happen sooner than later.  

 

Like what if things hit the fan and there was an opportunity to create a "Big East" type conference with institutions like Syracuse, Buffalo, UConn, Rutgers, Temple, UMass, West Virginia, Cincinnati, Toledo, Pitt, Army, Maryland, Marshall....

*Just shooting from the hip, dont need to know details on why "X" would never....

 

Something like that would be optimal for a bunch of those teams.  

 

[That's No Moon]

3 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

 

Buffalo counts as media market #1 too because of a  significant alumni base downstate. Certainly more than Rutgers.

That's not how that works and you know that. It's about getting the game televised in that market. The Big 10 couldn't care less if anyone in NYC actually cares about Rutgers. It is a vehicle for their other schools to show recruits that they will be on TV in their home area. It's also a way to pump up the TV contract knowing that the largest market in the country is within the broadcast area. It's why they will never kick Northwestern out even though Northwestern isn't like any of the other Big10 schools. It's the Chicago market.

Edited September 7, 2021 by That's No Moon