Alphas Final Roster Stab (after PS game 3)

[Pete]

Good job again!

I think we keep 6 CBs- that last cut is tough.

OK, Taiwan makes it- then Breida gets cut IMO

Im guessing Beane works his wizardry, and trades DL, maybe and/or WR for draft picks.  That makes cuts a little easier

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, maddenboy said:

2) Maybe, just maybe, Taiwan has very real trade value.  Maybe the wizard brought in Kumerow precisely to unlock Taiwan's trade value in case of roster cutting emergency.

 

Not sure how that logic works when Kumerow was signed to a futures deal on January 26th and Taiwan Jones was re-signed as a Free Agent on March 29th...

Edited August 29, 2021 by BillsFanForever19

[dollars 2 donuts]

@Alphadawg7

 

Your

 

Best

 

To

 

Date

 

I am essentially with you on 53 out of 53.

 

I am comfortable in rolling with Alpha Roster 3.0 at kickoff in 2 weeks.

 

Well done and well reasoned my friend. 

[LABILLBACKER]

I agree they'll release Taiwan. They won't have a Yeldon RB inactive most weeks like last year. They'll rotate Motor, Moss & Brieda. I too like Obada so I guess we'll all have to wait and see which DE gets traded or cut between Efe, Bam & Mario. I think with Kumerow and Stevenson playing well we're destined to go with 7 wrs. 

[No_Matter_What]

Is there any other healthy player other than Taiwan Jones who did not play a single snap in preseason?

 

It is really weird imo. People are saying it because he is valueable but so is Josh or Tre and they and everybody else played.

 

[ColoradoBills]

13 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Is there any other healthy player other than Taiwan Jones who did not play a single snap in preseason?

 

It is really weird imo. People are saying it because he is valueable but so is Josh or Tre and they and everybody else played.

 

 

Only for health reasons I believe.  Morse and Diggs for example.  I never heard about a gunner/jammer being held out of preseason

in all my years as a fan.  It is strange and really is quite intriguing to watch what happens Tuesday.

One side of this will be right and the threads will get quite lively I predict!

[Hapless Bills Fan]

42 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Only for health reasons I believe.  Morse and Diggs for example.  I never heard about a gunner/jammer being held out of preseason

in all my years as a fan.  It is strange and really is quite intriguing to watch what happens Tuesday.

One side of this will be right and the threads will get quite lively I predict!

 

Morse played Sunday, didn't he?  Follow-up: Yes he did, there's a clip of Allen hugging him after the TD pass to Davis.

 

Diggs didn't play although he's started practicing, guess you could say "health"

 

Strange.  The only thing I can think is that the Bills are very confident about what he can and can't do as an RB and a ST'er, so they wanted as much look as possible at other guys who might fill those roles.

 

EDIT: Oh, and of course, less risk of injury to him which might complicate any plans.

[ColoradoBills]

Just now, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Morse played Sunday, didn't he?  Follow-up: Yes he did, there's a clip of Allen hugging him after the TD pass to Davis.

 

Diggs didn't play although he's started practicing, guess you could say "health"

 

Strange

 

I didn't see that he did.  Good news that he was out there.

Keeping Jones on the sidelines the entire preseason is the most puzzling thing I've seen in a long time.

 

I'm sticking with his worth is known and McDermott and Beane want to know if another guy can do his job adequately enough.

We all find out Tuesday.

[Just Joshin']

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I hear you but I don't think you are going to get a team throwing a really silly offer (say a 3rd round pick) at a guy with 1 start. The fact he is a rotational player more than anything else limits that value was more my point.

Plus on a 1 year  contract.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

13 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First, what a preseason!  Not only did a lot of our young guys, especially our young DL players, shine...but wow did Allen and the first team offense come out and make a statement.  Granted it was against backups, but the throws Allen was dealing were just perfect and they were dialed in.  Congrats to the whole Bills organization on an impressive preseason!

 

Ok, so this is my final stab at this, as we all know there are only really a few roster spots that are likely unsettled, so not a whole lot going to be different with this final mock, but here goes:

 

Offense:  Total 24

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Knox - Hollister

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 26

LDE:  Hughes - Rousseau, Johnson

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Boogie

DT:  Star - Butler, Phillips

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 3.0 - ADDITIONS 

DE Johnson - Beane during the game spoke about how he has been getting trade calls along the DL, and especially at DE.  And with how well both Rousseau and Boogie have played, I think Beane feels more confident in being able to move one of the DE's to create a roster spot to keep DJ.  I think its going to come down to Addison or Obada, and if I had to guess right now, I think it will be Obada.   

 

DT Phillips - I added him back into the fold once his injury seemed not as severe as first thought.  I haven't been able to find anymore clearer information on it, so under the assumption its not a significant injury, I have him back on the 53.  And I think they end up keeping both Butler and Phillips, at least initially, until there is a clear timeline on Phillips.  

 

CHANGES from 3.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

TE Sweeney - I have had him on and off my roster projections now, and I think with the emergence of Stevenson and Sweeney getting another injury, that its more and more likely we keep 7 WR's this year and Sweeney is now the odd man out.  

 

DE Obada - He had (reportedly) one of the strongest camps of anyone this year, but he hasn't done a whole lot during preseason compared to some of the other guys.  I think they really want to keep DJ, and right now I think Obada may be the odd man out.  He is still running 3rd on the depth chart as well.  So in this final stab at the roster, I have us trading Obada.  It could still be Addison as well, and think its going to be one of those 2 guys if a trade is made.  But right now, I think its Obada given Addison led the team in sacks last year and knows the defense.  

 

NEW TE STARTER - KNOX:  In version 2.0 I started speculating Hollister might emerge as a surprise starter.  But given Knox ran with the ones this game, and did a good job, I think the job is safely Knox's to start the season with Hollister likely getting decent amount of snaps as well.  But I do think Knox could see Hollister push him for the starting role throughout the season if Knox shows inconsistency catching the ball and blocking.

 

NOTES:

AJE vs Addison:  I am even more confident AJE is locked in to start, Addison seems to have been running mostly with the two's this preseason as well and actually think either Addison or Obada will be a trade before week 1 at this point.  (more on that below)

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and its still possible we only keep 5, but I still think its going to be 6 given how well Smith and Matakevic have played and how much they contribute to ST.  

 

Potential Trade:  I think a trade is in the cards here at DE, especially after Beane's comments during the game.  I think it's pretty clear the top 2 candidates are Obada and Addison.  Wouldn't surprise me to see someone like Butler get moved, but until there is more clarity on Phillips availability I think its unlikely.  

 

OL Addition:  I think there will be an OL potentially added once cuts happen before the season begins.  

 

Taiwan Jones doesn't make my final roster again:  Welp, guess I am dying on this hill.  I think Brieda sealed his spot and role on this team, meaning on game days, all 3 of Devin, Moss, and Brieda will be active.  Gilliam will likely be as well, so I just do not see them keeping 5 RB's active on game days just to get Taiwan on the field for ST.  And I always felt they would keep one of either Taiwan or Daryl Johnson here their primary role would be ST this year given their positions on the depth chart.  And with the potential of a trade at DE, I think its DJ that gets kept over Taiwan.  

Agree with 7 WR and only 2 true TE's.  You have 11 DL.  That is not going to happen.  They will keep 10 with Phillips going to IR and sub out Johnson and add Obada.  Phillips might just be an injury settlement and they part ways.  I too think they keep an extra LB this year and let Taiwan Jones go.  I agree with your analysis they will not have five active RB's (4 + Gilliam).  

[machine gun kelly]

First thanks again for the thoughtful post again as I’m sure it takes a lot of time.

 

I think they find a spot for Obada.  It could be a swap with Dodson, or maybe Beane and McD has seen enough of the young guys to cut Addison.  We don’t know as he hasn’t played in the PS.

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

While I dont disagree, they kept 6 LBs last year and 5 DBs running this same defense.  

 

I think Wildgoose has a legit shot to be on the roster, but I only kept 6 LBs because of their value on ST's as well as showing well on the field too at their respective positions.  But yeah, totally possible and reasonable to see them keeping 5 at LB to hold onto another DB.  I just think Wildgoose might also be easier to sneak onto the PS as well.  

 

 

While I think your work is thoughtful, observant and interesting here, I think you're off-target in one area.

 

To me - and of course this is just an opinion - I think you are approaching this wrong on the DL. You seem to be saying that there is likely to be a trade (reasonable), so I'm going to look trade-first and figure out who we keep after looking at the trade. And I don't think that's the way they do it.

 

I think they look at who they want to keep, and after deciding that they see if they can rustle up a trade with the folks they don't want to keep.

 

And to me, Obada has been kicking butt this year, to the point that he's one of our two or three best pass rushers, and maybe even better than that.

 

And yet the league-wide perception of him is that he isn't that great. I mean, we were able to get him for a one year, $1.5M contract. So I think if we traded him, we wouldn't get as much value in trade as he would give us on the roster.

 

I think he's right here this year. I agree with most of the rest of what you said, it all seems reasonable and possible. I think it's really possible that some other DL will be traded.

Edited August 30, 2021 by Thurman#1

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

While I think your work is thoughtful, observant and interesting here, I think you're off-target in one area.

 

To me - and of course this is just an opinion - I think you are approaching this wrong on the DL. You seem to be saying that there is likely to be a trade (reasonable), so I'm going to look trade-first and figure out who we keep after looking at the trade. And I don't think that's the way they do it.

 

I think they look at who they want to keep, and after deciding that they see if they can rustle up a trade with the folks they don't want to keep.

 

And to me, Obada has been kicking butt this year, to the point that he's one of our two or three best pass rushers, and maybe even better than that.

 

And yet the league-wide perception of him is that he isn't that great. I mean, we were able to get him for a one year, $1.5M contract. So I think if we traded him, we wouldn't get as much value in trade as he would give us on the roster.

 

I think he's right here this year. I agree with most of the rest of what you said, it all seems reasonable and possible. I think it's really possible that some other DL will be traded.

 

Obada has, by all reports, had a great camp. I agree he isn't going anywhere because I am not sure you are going to get a pick you feel is worth letting him go. That said, @Alphadawg7's point about Obada not actually being that impressive in the pre-season games is a fair one. He had a reasonable outing vs the Lions but was practically invisible against the Bears and Packers and was out played in both those games by Bam Johnson and Boogie Basham let alone AJ and Greg. Knowing what we know of this staff they value camp as highly as pre-season games and so I suspect Obada is totally safe but I was ranking our ends (excluding the two older vets) over the three games I might have Obada last. 

 

I am struggling to see a DL trade that makes sense for the team getting the player beyond someone chucking you a conditional 7th for Addison or Butler maybe. 

[Not at the table Karlos]

16 hours ago, maddenboy said:

Taiwan Jones is, apparently, an Elite gunner and for sure the entire league knows it.  Therefore:

 

1) You wont be able to cut him and sneak him anywhere near your PS

 

2) Maybe, just maybe, Taiwan has very real trade value.  Maybe the wizard brought in Kumerow precisely to unlock Taiwan's trade value in case of roster cutting emergency.

1. Its Taiwan's choice. If he's cut and there's mutual interest in him coming back, he will he back. He doesn't go through waivers. 

 

2. I highly doubt he has any "very real trade value". Teams don't give up much for old RBs that pretty much just play special teams. 

 

He's not even the best gunner on the team. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

 

He's not even the best gunner on the team. 

 

He is an excellent gunner though. I agree Siran Neal is probably even better at this stage in his career but Taiwan has been an elite gunner for a long time in this league.

[Patrick Duffy]

4 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

1. Its Taiwan's choice. If he's cut and there's mutual interest in him coming back, he will he back. He doesn't go through waivers. 

 

2. I highly doubt he has any "very real trade value". Teams don't give up much for old RBs that pretty much just play special teams. 

 

He's not even the best gunner on the team. 

In your opinion, who would you say is the best gunner? I honestly don't know if it's enough difference to honestly say one is that much better than another.

[Not at the table Karlos]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

He is an excellent gunner though. I agree Siran Neal is probably even better at this stage in his career but Taiwan has been an elite gunner for a long time in this league.

I agree. I'm not saying Taiwan is a bad gunner or anything, he's very good. Neal is just better. Idk if I've ever saw a gunner like Neal. He's consistently to the ball/returner first. 

 

While you're here what are youre thoughts on Olaijah Griffin? 

 

3 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

In your opinion, who would you say is the best gunner? I honestly don't know if it's enough difference to honestly say one is that much better than another.

Neal. I would say Neil is elite and Taiwan is very good. 

[Patrick Duffy]

4 minutes ago, Not at the table Karlos said:

7 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

 

Neal. I would say Neil is elite and Taiwan is very good.

Ok. Well I can't argue with that. I guess it's just something I haven't took enough notice to clearly see a difference. Both are usually pretty fast getting down there so guess I just never put much thought in it.

[Alphadawg7]

On 8/29/2021 at 10:03 AM, HappyDays said:

 

I'm not 100% confident in my prediction that Brieda will be inactive on gamedays. But right now he is just a gadget player. He contributes nothing as a conventional RB and not enough on special teams to be worth an active roster spot every week. Yesterday he looked good in the McKenzie role but obviously he isn't taking McKenzie's job any time soon as long as he's healthy. So I struggle to see what his role will be on gamedays. If Daboll envisions Breida in a separate but just as necessary gadget role then yes he will be active more often than not.

 

You're focusing too much on what Jones and Kumerow contribute outside of special teams. In a vacuum I would probably agree that Kumerow does more on offense than Jones. But the staff doesn't care. Since neither player will actually have a role on offense (except in case of injury) they are going to default to the player that gives them more on special teams. Maybe they find a way to keep both.

 

It's funny we are having this debate when just 48 hours from now we will have our answer.

 

haha all good, debates are fun especially when both sides making calm and rational points on the debate

[Royale with Cheese]

I think Rosseau starts opposite Hughes.  I think he's been that impressive.