Alphas Final Roster Stab (after PS game 3)

[Alphadawg7]

34 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I'm trying to find the stats, but I thought when Milano is healthy the Bills play dime about the least in the league, because Milano fills the role of a dime CB?

 

I tried to look it up on Sharp Football Stats but oddly, when I chose Defense and "personnel grouping frequency" I still got the offensive groupings!!!!

 

Anyway, I know the Bills most common defensive personnel set is Nickle, which means they commonly have 2 LB and 3 CB on the field.

It seems the number of players on the roster at least ought to reflect that reality.   

 

6 LB and 5 CB does not.

 

 

 

While I dont disagree, they kept 6 LBs last year and 5 DBs running this same defense.  

 

I think Wildgoose has a legit shot to be on the roster, but I only kept 6 LBs because of their value on ST's as well as showing well on the field too at their respective positions.  But yeah, totally possible and reasonable to see them keeping 5 at LB to hold onto another DB.  I just think Wildgoose might also be easier to sneak onto the PS as well.  

[Motorin']

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Valid counter point, but IMHO, I think they know that the low sack numbers were a direct result of being so undersized in the trenches.  They have been singing Addison praises all camp too and saying this is they guy they expected last year.  I mean if that was the case, Hughes would be just a vulnerable and I think there is almost no chance they trade him.  

 

I guess I didn't see much from Addison to inspire my confidence in him yesterday, while Jerry was impacting the qb quite a bit.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think when McKenzie is healthy they will make Brieda inactive on gamedays. He is on the roster as an emergency RB in case Singletary or Moss get injured, and as an emergency gadget player in case McKenzie gets injured. All the plays he was involved with yesterday are plays where McKenzie would normally get the ball.

 

When the staff continually calls Jones an "elite gunner" and treats him like a starter in preseason you can't ignore those signs.

 

Kumerow is just the latest training camp star that doesn't actually produce in games. He was the same guy in Green Bay. Outside of one nice toe tap catch against the Bears he has been a non-factor in preseason games going against 2nd and 3rd stringers.

 

Assuming Bam Johnson and Neal and Jones all make the team I don't see the need for another special teams gunner in Kumerow. Based on everything this staff has said they feel that Jones is the best gunner on the team. So between Jones and Kumerow, neither of which are likely to see any snaps on offense, they are going to use their special teams value as the deciding factor.

 

If either Kumerow or Brieda dont make the final roster, absolutely I see Taiwan being a guy who does, especially if its Brieda who is left off.

 

But where I disagree with you on is on just that.  Kumerow not only seems destined for the roster now, Beane alluded to considering keeping 7 WR's during the game last night.  And I don't think that they see Brieda as a guy to run plays they would run for McKenzie.  They have repeatedly said they want someone with some wheels specifically at RB, and my experience with Beane and McD is they mean what they say.  

 

So for me, I think Brieda is a guy they are planning to use on gameday, not just an emergency RB.  And I think Kumerow is they guy who actually kicks Taiwan off the roster because he is also a good gunner.  

 

Im not arguing Taiwan isn't excellent at his job, I am arguing that Kumerow is still good enough at the same job that it doesn't warrant cutting a player who contributes more at another position to keep a little bit of an upgrade at gunner.  

 

Just my 2 cents, I could be wrong, just how I see it personally right now.

Edited August 29, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Motorin']

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

If either Kumerow or Brieda dont make the final roster, absolutely I see Taiwan being a guy who does, especially if its Brieda who is left off.

 

But where I disagree with you on is on just that.  Kumerow not only seems destined for the roster now, Beane alluded to considering keeping 7 WR's during the game last night.  And I don't at all think they see Brieda as a guy to run plays they would run for McKenzie.  They have repeated said they want someone with some wheels specifically at RB, and my experience with Beane and McD is they mean what they say.  

 

So for me, I think Brieda is a guy they are planning to use on gameday, not just an emergency RB.  And I think Kumerow is they guy who actually kicks Taiwan off the roster because he is also a good gunner.  

 

Im not arguing Taiwan isn't excellent at his job, I am arguing that Kumerow is still good enough at the same job that it doesn't warrant cutting a player who contributes more at another position to keep a little bit of an upgrade at gunner.  

 

Just my 2 cents, I could be wrong, just how I see it personally right now.

 

Taiwan's a 4.3 guy. But I think Haack has more hangtime than Bojo's  line drives. So we don't need the elite speed as much... Idk, it's going to be interesting. 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I guess I didn't see much from Addison to inspire my confidence in him yesterday, while Jerry was impacting the qb quite a bit.

 

Addison's value wasn't determined in yesterdays preseason game. They know who he is what he brings to the table.  Their decision to keep him will come down to trade offers, and numbers on the roster cut downs.  

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

Taiwan's a 4.3 guy. But I think Haack has more hangtime than Bojo's  line drives. So we don't need the elite speed as much... Idk, it's going to be interesting. 

 

And at the end of day, good players will be cut from this team or traded.  We cant keep them all.

[Locomark]

It will be all about: 1) who is fetching trade offers 2) do they view it important to keep Addison’s presence to help the kids

 

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

So for me, I think Brieda is a guy they are planning to use on gameday, not just an emergency RB.  And I think Kumerow is they guy who actually kicks Taiwan off the roster because he is also a good gunner.  

 

I'm not 100% confident in my prediction that Brieda will be inactive on gamedays. But right now he is just a gadget player. He contributes nothing as a conventional RB and not enough on special teams to be worth an active roster spot every week. Yesterday he looked good in the McKenzie role but obviously he isn't taking McKenzie's job any time soon as long as he's healthy. So I struggle to see what his role will be on gamedays. If Daboll envisions Breida in a separate but just as necessary gadget role then yes he will be active more often than not.

 

You're focusing too much on what Jones and Kumerow contribute outside of special teams. In a vacuum I would probably agree that Kumerow does more on offense than Jones. But the staff doesn't care. Since neither player will actually have a role on offense (except in case of injury) they are going to default to the player that gives them more on special teams. Maybe they find a way to keep both.

 

It's funny we are having this debate when just 48 hours from now we will have our answer.

[Kelly the Dog]

I don’t think it’s insignificant that our new punter is going to get far more fair catches, ob punts and downed inside the 10 than our last guy, making the ST gunner less important. And we don’t punt much, maybe even less this year, making gunner slightly less important. Our PK in his second season has a tremendous leg and kicking the ball to touchback on regular basis, making gunner slightly less important. 

[Turk71]

At first glance the depth at CB and OT is concerning. I don't think Brown or especially Doyle are ready for prime time at all. I remember thinking when they picked the 2nd tackle project of their draft: 2 project tackles, how will they be able to keep them both if they're not ready to play?  I'm thinking Doyle could head to the PS and the Bills could pick up another backup tackle. I'm also hoping the Bills can pick up decent CB help through a trade. I was surprised they did nothing this off-season in that regard. 

[John from Riverside]

To me it comes down to Addison versus Obada

 

Addison has also done virtually nothing in preseason well Obata has had the stronger camp and is younger

 

MacBean is not above cutting a player they have given money to

Edited August 29, 2021 by John from Riverside

[Don Otreply]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

The fact that Taiwan Jones didn't even dress last week, in a game when all locked in starters didn't dress, means he is a roster lock. He is a special teams starter as much as Tre White is a defensive starter, that's how this coaching staff sees him. With this roster I would switch out Kumerow with Jones and cross my fingers Kumerow clears waivers.

 

After Beane's comments during the game yesterday it does seem quite likely that one of our DEs will be traded, and I agree that it is likely Addison or Obada. I would probably prefer we keep Obada but he has been pretty meh in preseason so I'm not going to lose sleep over it either way.

I here ya, but, there is not a chance in hell that JK clears waivers, he runs good routes, has good hands, willing and able blocker, and plays gunner on STs, JK makes the 53 imo, he is TD Jesus after all…, 😁

[Just Joshin']

1 hour ago, Motorin' said:

I could see going 5 LB's and keeping Obada. Trying to get Dodson to the practice squad.

 

If I'm being honest though, I really don't see the upside in keeping Addison over Obada. Does Addison really have much left in the tank? 

I agree with the first paragraph - keep Obada and cut Dodson.

 

Beane will be looking ahead to next year when Hughes and Addison are gone.

[Reader]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

To me it comes down to Addison versus Obama

 

Addison has also done virtually nothing in preseason well Obata has had the stronger camp and is younger

 

MacBean is not above cutting a player they have given money to

 

Gotta go with the former president every time.

[Rocky Landing]

FWIW, I would be pretty surprised if there weren't one or two "surprise" cuts this Tuesday that weren't really cuts. I can't remember who it was last year (McKensie, maybe?) who was cut with the promise of re-signing them after moving another player to IR. I don't remember the player, but I do remember the story, and how there was a lot of trust the player had to afford Beane to not entertain other offers, and follow through with the promise. Especially with the continuation of some players getting special designation on the PS that protects them, I think there are several who are not subject to waivers, in lieu of some who are, who could be involved to help get a couple valuable players to the PS.

 

Right now, there are eight WRs, eight DEs, and five backs whom I believe McD/Beane would love to keep around. Some of them include core ST players that are routinely undervalued on this site. But, with the departure of Roberts, I'd be surprised if they were willing to let go of a single one of them.

 

So, I'm going to assume we won't really have the final 53 until a couple days after Tuesday.

 

 

Edited August 29, 2021 by Rocky Landing

[Motorin']

4 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

FWIW, I would be pretty surprised if there weren't one or two "surprise" cuts this Tuesday that weren't really cuts. I can't remember who it was last year (McKensie, maybe?) who was cut with the promise of re-signing them after moving another player to IR. I don't remember the player, but I do remember the story, and how there was a lot of trust the player had to afford Beane to not entertain other offers, and follow through with the promise. Especially with the continuation of some players getting special designation on the PS that protects them, I think there are several who are not subject to waivers, in lieu of some who are, who could be involved to help get a couple valuable players to the PS.

 

Right now, there are eight WRs, eight DEs, and five backs whom I believe McD/Beane would love to keep around. Some of them include core ST players that are routinely undervalued on this site. But, with the departure of Roberts, I'd be surprised if they were willing to let go of a single one of them.

 

So, I'm going to assume we won't really have the final 53 until a couple days after Tuesday.

 

 

 

I believe it was Levi Wallace and/ or Dean Marlowe that was cut and resigned. 

[Bermuda Triangle]

Just now, Motorin' said:

 

I believe it was Levi Wallace and/ or Dean Marlowe that was cut and resigned. 

I believe Marlowe and Roberts were cut and re-signed last season

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Probably a moot point because I see a heavy rotation between Hughes, Rousseau and AJE but you have AJE starting over Rousseau?

 

Yesterday, the starting ends were Hughes and Rousseau. 

[MasterStrategist]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First, what a preseason!  Not only did a lot of our young guys, especially our young DL players, shine...but wow did Allen and the first team offense come out and make a statement.  Granted it was against backups, but the throws Allen was dealing were just perfect and they were dialed in.  Congrats to the whole Bills organization on an impressive preseason!

 

Ok, so this is my final stab at this, as we all know there are only really a few roster spots that are likely unsettled, so not a whole lot going to be different with this final mock, but here goes:

 

Offense:  Total 24

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Knox - Hollister

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 26

LDE:  Hughes - Rousseau, Johnson

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Boogie

DT:  Star - Butler, Phillips

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 3.0 - ADDITIONS 

DE Johnson - Beane during the game spoke about how he has been getting trade calls along the DL, and especially at DE.  And with how well both Rousseau and Boogie have played, I think Beane feels more confident in being able to move one of the DE's to create a roster spot to keep DJ.  I think its going to come down to Addison or Obada, and if I had to guess right now, I think it will be Obada.   

 

DT Phillips - I added him back into the fold once his injury seemed not as severe as first thought.  I haven't been able to find anymore clearer information on it, so under the assumption its not a significant injury, I have him back on the 53.  And I think they end up keeping both Butler and Phillips, at least initially, until there is a clear timeline on Phillips.  

 

CHANGES from 3.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

TE Sweeney - I have had him on and off my roster projections now, and I think with the emergence of Stevenson and Sweeney getting another injury, that its more and more likely we keep 7 WR's this year and Sweeney is now the odd man out.  

 

DE Obada - He had (reportedly) one of the strongest camps of anyone this year, but he hasn't done a whole lot during preseason compared to some of the other guys.  I think they really want to keep DJ, and right now I think Obada may be the odd man out.  He is still running 3rd on the depth chart as well.  So in this final stab at the roster, I have us trading Obada.  It could still be Addison as well, and think its going to be one of those 2 guys if a trade is made.  But right now, I think its Obada given Addison led the team in sacks last year and knows the defense.  

 

NEW TE STARTER - KNOX:  In version 2.0 I started speculating Hollister might emerge as a surprise starter.  But given Knox ran with the ones this game, and did a good job, I think the job is safely Knox's to start the season with Hollister likely getting decent amount of snaps as well.  But I do think Knox could see Hollister push him for the starting role throughout the season if Knox shows inconsistency catching the ball and blocking.

 

NOTES:

AJE vs Addison:  I am even more confident AJE is locked in to start, Addison seems to have been running mostly with the two's this preseason as well and actually think either Addison or Obada will be a trade before week 1 at this point.  (more on that below)

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and its still possible we only keep 5, but I still think its going to be 6 given how well Smith and Matakevic have played and how much they contribute to ST.  

 

Potential Trade:  I think a trade is in the cards here at DE, especially after Beane's comments during the game.  I think it's pretty clear the top 2 candidates are Obada and Addison.  Wouldn't surprise me to see someone like Butler get moved, but until there is more clarity on Phillips availability I think its unlikely.  

 

OL Addition:  I think there will be an OL potentially added once cuts happen before the season begins.  

 

Taiwan Jones doesn't make my final roster again:  Welp, guess I am dying on this hill.  I think Brieda sealed his spot and role on this team, meaning on game days, all 3 of Devin, Moss, and Brieda will be active.  Gilliam will likely be as well, so I just do not see them keeping 5 RB's active on game days just to get Taiwan on the field for ST.  And I always felt they would keep one of either Taiwan or Daryl Johnson here their primary role would be ST this year given their positions on the depth chart.  And with the potential of a trade at DE, I think its DJ that gets kept over Taiwan.  

Great job again, and appreciate you putting time pulling these together this preseason. 

 

I think we may roll with 5 LB, if we keep Bam.  Given Bam will be an upgrade over Dodson on ST and think Smith/Makatevich are ahead of Tyrell right now.  So I could see them cutting Tyrell, hoping to sneak him and/or Adams back onto the PS.

 

Then I see us keeping Wildgoose.  With Levi and Dane banged up, albeit minor and should be ready week 1, I think he's done enough to warrant this reserve spot.  

 

I agree with everything else, even the Obada trade makes alot of sense, if we decide to move one.  

 

Thinking ahead to PS, hope we can sign back:

1. Dodson

2. Adams

3. Josh Thomas

4. McLeod

5. Gentry

6. Hodgins

7. Bryant

8. Webb

9. Fromm

10. Anderson

11. Antonio Williams

12-16. then search for 1 CB, 1 S, 1 Tackle, 1 DL, 1 WR (maybe Lenoir)

17. Free spot: Wade

 

[ganesh]

Tuesday will be once again a sad day when about 33% of the roster will be cut to bring the team size to 53.   It will likely mean the end of the road for 75% of these players who will not make it to a teams Practice Squad.  They will have to go out and look for real life jobs.   Sad day indeed

[Niagara Dude]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First, what a preseason!  Not only did a lot of our young guys, especially our young DL players, shine...but wow did Allen and the first team offense come out and make a statement.  Granted it was against backups, but the throws Allen was dealing were just perfect and they were dialed in.  Congrats to the whole Bills organization on an impressive preseason!

 

Ok, so this is my final stab at this, as we all know there are only really a few roster spots that are likely unsettled, so not a whole lot going to be different with this final mock, but here goes:

 

Offense:  Total 24

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Knox - Hollister

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 26

LDE:  Hughes - Rousseau, Johnson

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Boogie

DT:  Star - Butler, Phillips

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 3.0 - ADDITIONS 

DE Johnson - Beane during the game spoke about how he has been getting trade calls along the DL, and especially at DE.  And with how well both Rousseau and Boogie have played, I think Beane feels more confident in being able to move one of the DE's to create a roster spot to keep DJ.  I think its going to come down to Addison or Obada, and if I had to guess right now, I think it will be Obada.   

 

DT Phillips - I added him back into the fold once his injury seemed not as severe as first thought.  I haven't been able to find anymore clearer information on it, so under the assumption its not a significant injury, I have him back on the 53.  And I think they end up keeping both Butler and Phillips, at least initially, until there is a clear timeline on Phillips.  

 

CHANGES from 3.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

TE Sweeney - I have had him on and off my roster projections now, and I think with the emergence of Stevenson and Sweeney getting another injury, that its more and more likely we keep 7 WR's this year and Sweeney is now the odd man out.  

 

DE Obada - He had (reportedly) one of the strongest camps of anyone this year, but he hasn't done a whole lot during preseason compared to some of the other guys.  I think they really want to keep DJ, and right now I think Obada may be the odd man out.  He is still running 3rd on the depth chart as well.  So in this final stab at the roster, I have us trading Obada.  It could still be Addison as well, and think its going to be one of those 2 guys if a trade is made.  But right now, I think its Obada given Addison led the team in sacks last year and knows the defense.  

 

NEW TE STARTER - KNOX:  In version 2.0 I started speculating Hollister might emerge as a surprise starter.  But given Knox ran with the ones this game, and did a good job, I think the job is safely Knox's to start the season with Hollister likely getting decent amount of snaps as well.  But I do think Knox could see Hollister push him for the starting role throughout the season if Knox shows inconsistency catching the ball and blocking.

 

NOTES:

AJE vs Addison:  I am even more confident AJE is locked in to start, Addison seems to have been running mostly with the two's this preseason as well and actually think either Addison or Obada will be a trade before week 1 at this point.  (more on that below)

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and its still possible we only keep 5, but I still think its going to be 6 given how well Smith and Matakevic have played and how much they contribute to ST.  

 

Potential Trade:  I think a trade is in the cards here at DE, especially after Beane's comments during the game.  I think it's pretty clear the top 2 candidates are Obada and Addison.  Wouldn't surprise me to see someone like Butler get moved, but until there is more clarity on Phillips availability I think its unlikely.  

 

OL Addition:  I think there will be an OL potentially added once cuts happen before the season begins.  

 

Taiwan Jones doesn't make my final roster again:  Welp, guess I am dying on this hill.  I think Brieda sealed his spot and role on this team, meaning on game days, all 3 of Devin, Moss, and Brieda will be active.  Gilliam will likely be as well, so I just do not see them keeping 5 RB's active on game days just to get Taiwan on the field for ST.  And I always felt they would keep one of either Taiwan or Daryl Johnson here their primary role would be ST this year given their positions on the depth chart.  And with the potential of a trade at DE, I think its DJ that gets kept over Taiwan.  

Nice work,  looks pretty accurate