Alphas Final Roster Stab (after PS game 3)

[Alphadawg7]

First, what a preseason!  Not only did a lot of our young guys, especially our young DL players, shine...but wow did Allen and the first team offense come out and make a statement.  Granted it was against backups, but the throws Allen was dealing were just perfect and they were dialed in.  Congrats to the whole Bills organization on an impressive preseason!

 

Ok, so this is my final stab at this, as we all know there are only really a few roster spots that are likely unsettled, so not a whole lot going to be different with this final mock, but here goes:

 

Offense:  Total 24

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Knox - Hollister

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 26

LDE:  Hughes - Rousseau, Johnson

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Boogie

DT:  Star - Butler, Phillips

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 3.0 - ADDITIONS 

DE Johnson - Beane during the game spoke about how he has been getting trade calls along the DL, and especially at DE.  And with how well both Rousseau and Boogie have played, I think Beane feels more confident in being able to move one of the DE's to create a roster spot to keep DJ.  I think its going to come down to Addison or Obada, and if I had to guess right now, I think it will be Obada.   

 

DT Phillips - I added him back into the fold once his injury seemed not as severe as first thought.  I haven't been able to find anymore clearer information on it, so under the assumption its not a significant injury, I have him back on the 53.  And I think they end up keeping both Butler and Phillips, at least initially, until there is a clear timeline on Phillips.  

 

CHANGES from 3.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

TE Sweeney - I have had him on and off my roster projections now, and I think with the emergence of Stevenson and Sweeney getting another injury, that its more and more likely we keep 7 WR's this year and Sweeney is now the odd man out.  

 

DE Obada - He had (reportedly) one of the strongest camps of anyone this year, but he hasn't done a whole lot during preseason compared to some of the other guys.  I think they really want to keep DJ, and right now I think Obada may be the odd man out.  He is still running 3rd on the depth chart as well.  So in this final stab at the roster, I have us trading Obada.  It could still be Addison as well, and think its going to be one of those 2 guys if a trade is made.  But right now, I think its Obada given Addison led the team in sacks last year and knows the defense.  

 

NEW TE STARTER - KNOX:  In version 2.0 I started speculating Hollister might emerge as a surprise starter.  But given Knox ran with the ones this game, and did a good job, I think the job is safely Knox's to start the season with Hollister likely getting decent amount of snaps as well.  But I do think Knox could see Hollister push him for the starting role throughout the season if Knox shows inconsistency catching the ball and blocking.

 

NOTES:

AJE vs Addison:  I am even more confident AJE is locked in to start, Addison seems to have been running mostly with the two's this preseason as well and actually think either Addison or Obada will be a trade before week 1 at this point.  (more on that below)

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and its still possible we only keep 5, but I still think its going to be 6 given how well Smith and Matakevic have played and how much they contribute to ST.  

 

Potential Trade:  I think a trade is in the cards here at DE, especially after Beane's comments during the game.  I think it's pretty clear the top 2 candidates are Obada and Addison.  Wouldn't surprise me to see someone like Butler get moved, but until there is more clarity on Phillips availability I think its unlikely.  

 

OL Addition:  I think there will be an OL potentially added once cuts happen before the season begins.  

 

Taiwan Jones doesn't make my final roster again:  Welp, guess I am dying on this hill.  I think Brieda sealed his spot and role on this team, meaning on game days, all 3 of Devin, Moss, and Brieda will be active.  Gilliam will likely be as well, so I just do not see them keeping 5 RB's active on game days just to get Taiwan on the field for ST.  And I always felt they would keep one of either Taiwan or Daryl Johnson here their primary role would be ST this year given their positions on the depth chart.  And with the potential of a trade at DE, I think its DJ that gets kept over Taiwan.  

Edited August 29, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Bermuda Triangle]

Thanks for this - well thought out.

 

Tuesday will be very interesting, no doubt.

[Big Blitz]

Great job!  Agree with almost all of it.  

 

 

So Obada vs Addison.

 

I think I'd rather keep Obada I feel like he has played well.  I've also just never been an Addison guy. 

[Motorin']

I could see going 5 LB's and keeping Obada. Trying to get Dodson to the practice squad.

 

If I'm being honest though, I really don't see the upside in keeping Addison over Obada. Does Addison really have much left in the tank? 

[NewEra]

If we trade Obada for anything less than a 2nd rd pick I’ll be furious.  Even then, I don’t know if a 2nd is worth it.  Winning the SB in 2021 >>>>>> a draft pick.  After what I’ve seen from the guy, I think that he can help us win a SB. Lesser chance to win without him. 

dude is a monstrous physical specimen and we need as many monstrous physical specimens as we can get.  Keep Obada please.

[Dr. K]

Very reasonable. Your roster does seem thin at cornerback, though. Tough decisions on the last few men to make the roster. 

[Shaw66]

Thanks.  Good stuff. 

 

Beane doesn't like being on the sidelines.   He wants to be on the field, making plays.   So, I have trouble seeing him get through Tuesday without making a deal somewhere.  

[HappyDays]

The fact that Taiwan Jones didn't even dress last week, in a game when all locked in starters didn't dress, means he is a roster lock. He is a special teams starter as much as Tre White is a defensive starter, that's how this coaching staff sees him. With this roster I would switch out Kumerow with Jones and cross my fingers Kumerow clears waivers.

 

After Beane's comments during the game yesterday it does seem quite likely that one of our DEs will be traded, and I agree that it is likely Addison or Obada. I would probably prefer we keep Obada but he has been pretty meh in preseason so I'm not going to lose sleep over it either way.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, Dr. K said:

Very reasonable. Your roster does seem thin at cornerback, though. Tough decisions on the last few men to make the roster. 

 

That would be because the Bills roster at present seems very thin at CB.

[dave mcbride]

Great job, but I have a hard time seeing only 5 cbs. Beane yesterday on the telecast went on and on about how more CBs see the field more than LBs these days. 

2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

That would be because the Bills roster at present seems very thin at CB.

It is, but if two go down, they’d have play a safety or a LB in dime, and they don’t really have a chase-and-cover LB outside of Milano. Teams play dime a LOT.

Edited August 29, 2021 by dave mcbride

[Alphadawg7]

16 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

I could see going 5 LB's and keeping Obada. Trying to get Dodson to the practice squad.

 

If I'm being honest though, I really don't see the upside in keeping Addison over Obada. Does Addison really have much left in the tank? 

 

Addison would be a move for this years SB push.  And with 4 young DE's on the roster in AJE, Groot, Boogie, and DJ...the need to keep youth over older vet isn't as critical.  So for that reason, I think Obada may be the odd man out.  Still, wont surprise me to see them trade Addison either, just think his experience in the defense, leading the team in sacks last year, and the push this year for a SB title is what narrowly gives him the edge to stick.

3 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Great job, but I have a hard time seeing only 5 cbs. Beane yesterday on the telecast went on and on about how more CBs see the field more than LBs these days. 

 

Agreed, and I had Wildgoose on this final 53 until the very end where I took him off to keep a 6th LB.  And the reason was also Beanes emphasis on ST contributions, and all our back end LBs are important on ST.  So I am not going to be shocked to see us keep a 6th DB, but I narrowly gave it to the LB's in this final mock solely on ST contributions.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Great job, but I have a hard time seeing only 5 cbs. Beane yesterday on the telecast went on and on about how more CBs see the field more than LBs these days. 

It is, but if two go down, they’d have play a safety or a LB in dime, and they don’t really have a chase-and-cover LB outside of Milano. Teams play dime a LOT.

 

I'm trying to find the stats, but I thought when Milano is healthy the Bills play dime about the least in the league, because Milano fills the role of a dime CB?

 

I tried to look it up on Sharp Football Stats but oddly, when I chose Defense and "personnel grouping frequency" I still got the offensive groupings!!!!

 

Anyway, I know the Bills most common defensive personnel set is Nickle, which means they commonly have 2 LB and 3 CB on the field.

It seems the number of players on the roster at least ought to reflect that reality.   

 

6 LB and 5 CB does not.

 

 

[Motorin']

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Addison would be a move for this years SB push.  And with 4 young DE's on the roster in AJE, Groot, Boogie, and DJ...the need to keep youth over older vet isn't as critical.  So for that reason, I think Obada may be the odd man out.  Still, wont surprise me to see them trade Addison either, just think his experience in the defense, leading the team in sacks last year, and the push this year for a SB title is what narrowly gives him the edge to stick.

 

I think you're probably right, as far as McD's thinking goes. But I would counter with a question, isn't it a problem that Addison was the leader in sacks last year with just 5? And isn't the lack of production from the top DE's the reason you went out and got Groot, Boogie, Obada and have focused on developing AJ?

 

It's a luxury issue in a sense. But only because we don't have 6 solid cb's to keep. 

 

I really wish Levi was cb 4. But we don't have someone better than him at cb 2. I think lack of cb depth is going to hurt more than lack of pass rush this year.

[TheBeaneBandit]

29 minutes ago, NewEra said:

If we trade Obada for anything less than a 2nd rd pick I’ll be furious.  Even then, I don’t know if a 2nd is worth it.  Winning the SB in 2021 >>>>>> a draft pick.  After what I’ve seen from the guy, I think that he can help us win a SB. Lesser chance to win without him. 

dude is a monstrous physical specimen and we need as many monstrous physical specimens as we can get.  Keep Obada please.

The guy could really hit his stride right in time for a deep playoff run. 

[Alphadawg7]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

The fact that Taiwan Jones didn't even dress last week, in a game when all locked in starters didn't dress, means he is a roster lock. He is a special teams starter as much as Tre White is a defensive starter, that's how this coaching staff sees him. With this roster I would switch out Kumerow with Jones and cross my fingers Kumerow clears waivers.

 

After Beane's comments during the game yesterday it does seem quite likely that one of our DEs will be traded, and I agree that it is likely Addison or Obada. I would probably prefer we keep Obada but he has been pretty meh in preseason so I'm not going to lose sleep over it either way.

 

The old he didnt start counter argument again.  Sorry, I do not agree Taiwan is so vital he is treated with bubble wrap while substantially more important starters played not only last week, but the week before who are already locked into their positions.  

 

IMO, Taiwan has nothing to show...he is one dimensional, and they want to see other guys on the roster fill in on ST to see if Taiwan is vital to keep or not.  

 

And more importantly...show me the roster spot not only on the 53, but the active gameday roster where Taiwan has a spot.  Do you really think that Devin, Moss, Brieda, Gilliam, AND Taiwan will be active on game days?  Taiwan will not see a single snap at RB, and they are intent on Devin and Moss, and they brought Brieda here to be out there on game days as a home run threat.  

 

So, very easy to say "he sat last week so he is a lock", but its a lot harder to actually find a roster spot on the Active game days rosters given Brieda seems safe.  Unless you don't think we keep Brieda.  And if he is not active on game days, he has zero value to the team.  

 

Conclusion for me, Kumerow is the new gunner and Taiwan doesn't make the final roster.  

[Kwai San]

39 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

With this roster I would switch out Kumerow with Jones and cross my fingers Kumerow clears waivers.

 

After Beane's comments during the game yesterday it does seem quite likely that one of our DEs will be traded, and I agree that it is likely Addison or Obada. I would probably prefer we keep Obada but he has been pretty meh in preseason so I'm not going to lose sleep over it either way.

 

Methinks you don't have enough fingers to cross.  I doubt highly Kumo clears.....anything is possible but this doesn't seem probable.

[Alphadawg7]

44 minutes ago, NewEra said:

If we trade Obada for anything less than a 2nd rd pick I’ll be furious.  Even then, I don’t know if a 2nd is worth it.  Winning the SB in 2021 >>>>>> a draft pick.  After what I’ve seen from the guy, I think that he can help us win a SB. Lesser chance to win without him. 

dude is a monstrous physical specimen and we need as many monstrous physical specimens as we can get.  Keep Obada please.

 

I want to keep Obada, dont get me confused with what I want or what I think will happen.  But, no chance Obada fetches a 2nd round pick IMO. 

 

It really could still be Addison, I just think Addison knowing the defense, leading the team in sacks last year, and a push this year for a SB run gives him the slight edge given how young the rest of our DE room is outside Hughes.  

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

First, what a preseason!  Not only did a lot of our young guys, especially our young DL players, shine...but wow did Allen and the first team offense come out and make a statement.  Granted it was against backups, but the throws Allen was dealing were just perfect and they were dialed in.  Congrats to the whole Bills organization on an impressive preseason!

 

Ok, so this is my final stab at this, as we all know there are only really a few roster spots that are likely unsettled, so not a whole lot going to be different with this final mock, but here goes:

 

Offense:  Total 24

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Knox - Hollister

WR Diggs - Kumerow, Stevenson

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 26

LDE:  Hughes - Rousseau, Johnson

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Boogie

DT:  Star - Butler, Phillips

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 3.0 - ADDITIONS 

DE Johnson - Beane during the game spoke about how he has been getting trade calls along the DL, and especially at DE.  And with how well both Rousseau and Boogie have played, I think Beane feels more confident in being able to move one of the DE's to create a roster spot to keep DJ.  I think its going to come down to Addison or Obada, and if I had to guess right now, I think it will be Obada.   

 

DT Phillips - I added him back into the fold once his injury seemed not as severe as first thought.  I haven't been able to find anymore clearer information on it, so under the assumption its not a significant injury, I have him back on the 53.  And I think they end up keeping both Butler and Phillips, at least initially, until there is a clear timeline on Phillips.  

 

CHANGES from 3.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

TE Sweeney - I have had him on and off my roster projections now, and I think with the emergence of Stevenson and Sweeney getting another injury, that its more and more likely we keep 7 WR's this year and Sweeney is now the odd man out.  

 

DE Obada - He had (reportedly) one of the strongest camps of anyone this year, but he hasn't done a whole lot during preseason compared to some of the other guys.  I think they really want to keep DJ, and right now I think Obada may be the odd man out.  He is still running 3rd on the depth chart as well.  So in this final stab at the roster, I have us trading Obada.  It could still be Addison as well, and think its going to be one of those 2 guys if a trade is made.  But right now, I think its Obada given Addison led the team in sacks last year and knows the defense.  

 

NEW TE STARTER - KNOX:  In version 2.0 I started speculating Hollister might emerge as a surprise starter.  But given Knox ran with the ones this game, and did a good job, I think the job is safely Knox's to start the season with Hollister likely getting decent amount of snaps as well.  But I do think Knox could see Hollister push him for the starting role throughout the season if Knox shows inconsistency catching the ball and blocking.

 

NOTES:

AJE vs Addison:  I am even more confident AJE is locked in to start, Addison seems to have been running mostly with the two's this preseason as well and actually think either Addison or Obada will be a trade before week 1 at this point.  (more on that below)

 

6 Linebackers:  I had us keeping 6 all the way, and its still possible we only keep 5, but I still think its going to be 6 given how well Smith and Matakevic have played and how much they contribute to ST.  

 

Potential Trade:  I think a trade is in the cards here at DE, especially after Beane's comments during the game.  I think it's pretty clear the top 2 candidates are Obada and Addison.  Wouldn't surprise me to see someone like Butler get moved, but until there is more clarity on Phillips availability I think its unlikely.  

 

OL Addition:  I think there will be an OL potentially added once cuts happen before the season begins.  

 

Taiwan Jones doesn't make my final roster again:  Welp, guess I am dying on this hill.  I think Brieda sealed his spot and role on this team, meaning on game days, all 3 of Devin, Moss, and Brieda will be active.  Gilliam will likely be as well, so I just do not see them keeping 5 RB's active on game days just to get Taiwan on the field for ST.  And I always felt they would keep one of either Taiwan or Daryl Johnson here their primary role would be ST this year given their positions on the depth chart.  And with the potential of a trade at DE, I think its DJ that gets kept over Taiwan.  

 

Not all that sold on Doyle making the 53, they may just take a chance on exposing him to a waiver claim and picking up a better OT someplace.  Or he could make the roster on Tuesday, but be gone by Thursday once other teams make their cuts.

 

I think only 5 LB and would put Obada back on the 53 to start with.  If Phillips wasn't hurt would cut Butler.

 

Having said that, assuming there is a trade made, then tend to agree a likely name could be Obada in that case maybe they keep 6 LB's though personally I'd prefer they get some CB help instead. The team rarely plays 3LB's on the field so I'd be fine going with 5

 

To me the two positions that need to be strengthened are backup OT and CB, would be happy to see a pickup there.

[Alphadawg7]

26 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

I think you're probably right, as far as McD's thinking goes. But I would counter with a question, isn't it a problem that Addison was the leader in sacks last year with just 5? And isn't the lack of production from the top DE's the reason you went out and got Groot, Boogie, Obada and have focused on developing AJ?

 

It's a luxury issue in a sense. But only because we don't have 6 solid cb's to keep. 

 

I really wish Levi was cb 4. But we don't have someone better than him at cb 2. I think lack of cb depth is going to hurt more than lack of pass rush this year.

 

Valid counter point, but IMHO, I think they know that the low sack numbers were a direct result of being so undersized in the trenches.  They have been singing Addison praises all camp too and saying this is they guy they expected last year.  I mean if that was the case, Hughes would be just a vulnerable and I think there is almost no chance they trade him.  

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

And more importantly...show me the roster spot not only on the 53, but the active gameday roster where Taiwan has a spot.  Do you really think that Devin, Moss, Brieda, Gilliam, AND Taiwan will be active on game days?  Taiwan will not see a single snap at RB, and they are intent on Devin and Moss, and they brought Brieda here to be out there on game days as a home run threat.  

 

I think when McKenzie is healthy they will make Brieda inactive on gamedays. He is on the roster as an emergency RB in case Singletary or Moss get injured, and as an emergency gadget player in case McKenzie gets injured. All the plays he was involved with yesterday are plays where McKenzie would normally get the ball.

 

When the staff continually calls Jones an "elite gunner" and treats him like a starter in preseason you can't ignore those signs.

 

Kumerow is just the latest training camp star that doesn't actually produce in games. He was the same guy in Green Bay. Outside of one nice toe tap catch against the Bears he has been a non-factor in preseason games going against 2nd and 3rd stringers.

 

Assuming Bam Johnson and Neal and Jones all make the team I don't see the need for another special teams gunner in Kumerow. Based on everything this staff has said they feel that Jones is the best gunner on the team. So between Jones and Kumerow, neither of which are likely to see any snaps on offense, they are going to use their special teams value as the deciding factor.