Predict the Season

[GunnerBill]

This is the final of my annual offseason posts. I generally do it around the time, middle of camp, and I try and predict the Bills season game by game. Some of the specific game write ups are for fun, obviously, but I have a pretty good history of being close to the Bills final record. Last year I had them 11-5 and so was two games out. I have been doing this since 2014 on this site and that is only the second time I have been more than one game out (the first was 2015 when I had them 10-6 and they went 8-8). I did get 14 of 16 predictions right last year. The only two I got wrong were I had defeats at San Francisco and Denver, both of which ended up wins (though in my defence those two ended up the two most injury ravaged teams in the league last year). I started last season 11-0 after starting 2019 8-0. In 2019 I nailed the final record (10-6) but got four individual game win / loss predictions wrong. 

 

So here we go.... here is my 2021 prediction:

 

Week 1 - Steelers 24 Bills 27 - A nerve shredder for the Bills to open the season. Ben's arm was noticeably more live in the first 6 weeks of the season than it was thereafter in 2020 and that continues this year as he comes out hot and takes the Steelers into a 17-10 halftime lead. The Bills claw their way back into the game in the second half with Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis scoring to put them into a 24-17 lead. But Big Ben is still a gamer and taking the ball inside 4 minutes he marches his team down the field to tie the game with 40 seconds on the clock, only to see Josh Allen execute a lightening drive and a spike with :03 remaining. Tyler Bass hits the game winner as time expires. 1-0

 

Week 2 - Dolphins 16 Bills 31 - The Bills go into Miami and suffocate the Fish on defense. Tua throws a pick 6 right to Tre White early on and Greg Rousseau, back in the state where he played his college ball, has an NFL coming our party with two sacks. Allen throws for 300 yards, 3 touchdowns and a perfect passer rating against the team he increasingly loves to beat. This one is never close. 2-0

 

Week 3 - WFT 20 Bills 23 - Another narrow win in a home game for Buffalo. The Bills get 14-0 up early with some very well scripted and executed drives to keep the fearsome WFT pass rush off balance. However, the third quarter slump (in evidence early in 2020) makes an unwelcome return as the Bills struggle to move the ball after half time and the WFT climb back into the game. Another Bass Field Goal is the difference but only after Jordan Poyer picks off Fitz on a 4th down play in the final seconds, because Fitz is gonna Fitz. 3-0

 

Week 4 - Texans 9 Bills 38 - If the Bills first two home games have been nervy affairs this one is a beat down that is over by half time. The Bills are 28-6 up at the break thanks to Emmanuel Sanders first touchdown in a Bills uniform and a productive day for Singetary and Moss who have a score apiece. The Bills pull Josh Allen midway through the third and let Trubisky finish it out in what proves to be Tyrod Taylor's final start of the season for Houston. 4-0

 

Week 5 - Bills 24 Chiefs 30 - Under the Sunday Night lights the Bills give a decent account of themselves at Arrowhead but still, ultimately, come up short against the Chiefs. The defense manages to exert some pressure on Mahomes and Ed Oliver and Jerry Hughes both record sacks, however, the Chiefs get a two score lead early and even though the Bills are always in touching distance they just can't quite haul themselves on terms. The game ends on a failed 4th down throw from Allen to Diggs which goes incomplete. The Chiefs corner only has two hands grabbing Diggs's jersey so the officials decide not to throw a flag. 4-1

 

Week 6 - Bills 27 Titans 26 - Last year the Bills went 4-0 before defeats in successive weeks to Kansas City and Tennessee but they avoid that fate this year after a back and forth game where both offenses move the ball but turn it over at vital times. Tannehill throws 2 interceptions and Julio Jones has a fumble while Josh Allen throws one pick and loses a fumble on a Quarterback keeper at which point TBD goes into meltdown about Brian Daboll's play calling and he returns to the hot seat. In the end, with the Titans in desperation mode on 4th down, the Bills force their 4th takeaway of the game when Greg Rousseau gets around the edge and forces a strip sack. The Bills survive. 5-1

 

Week 7 - BYE

 

Week 8 - Dolphins 20 Bills 30 - The Dolphins fare moderately better against the Bills second time around. The Bills commit two turnovers - one on special teams (which of course leads to a week of "cut McKenzie" threads) - that give the Dolphins short fields which they take advantage of and going into the 4th this is tied at 17-17. The Bills stretch away as Stefon Diggs finally breaks free from Xavien Howard to have 88 yards receiving and a touchdown in the final quarter. 6-1 

 

Week 9 - Bills 28 Jaguars 21 - The punchy Jaguars are 4-4 coming into this week 9 matchup and rookie Trevor Lawrence is impressing observers with his poise. The Jags lead 7-0, 14-7 and 21-14 in this game but again the Bills raise their level with the game on the line to get on terms early in the 4th with another Stefon Diggs touchdown catch and then Levi Wallace snags an interception on the next Jags drive and Zack Moss barrels in from close range to win it. 7-1

 

Week 10 - Bills 26 Jets 10 - The Bills get out to a fast start here with Gabriel Davis having himself a day against the Jets corners and snagging two first half touchdown catches. It is field goals the rest of the way for the Bills as the Saleh defense is starting to find its grove in New York but Zach Wilson struggles to diagnose the Bills' coverage packages and throws three picks including a second in two weeks into the hands of Levi Wallace. Wilson slumps on the bench shakes his head and is caught muttering "I'm seeing ghosts, man". The Bills meanwhile are 8-1.

 

Week 11 - Colts 6 Bills 30 - The Bills smash the Colts. Shocking? Yea. About as shocking as Carson Wentz's play. By the end of this game his NFL career is basically over. 4 interceptions, a fumble lost and a completion rate below 50%. It's all over. He is benched midway through the second half and never starts a regular season game again. Fortunately the Colts are prepared having traded just before the deadline for one Nick Foles who takes the starting job and leads them past the Tom Brady led Buccs the following week and to a 5-1 record down the stretch and into the playoffs.  9-1

 

Week 12 - Bills 24 Saints 20 - Trap game? Maybe, and I do think Sean Payton is capable of giving McDermott and Frazier's defense trouble. No offensive coach in the NFL takes advantage of your tendencies as well on a week to week basis as Payton. Alvin Kamara has himself a day against the Bills defense with well over 100 all purpose yards. The Bills are in trouble but squeeze through with a 4th Quarter touchdown pass to Emmanuel Sanders on his return to the Superdome. 10-1

 

Week 13 - Patriots 20 Bills 27 - Another closer game than some might expect as the Patriots find some success running it down the Bills' throats and working the intermediate play action game with Mac Jones. It is tied at 14 at the half but the Bills prevail as Dawson Knox records his first ever 100 yard receiving day and snags a touchdown and Ed Oliver ends the game with a 4th down sack of Jones in the final minute. After two consecutive weeks of run defense woe TBD drive regulars wonder if William Perry (aka The Fridge) could be tempted out of retirement to play 1 tech. 11-1

 

Week 14 - Bills 19 Buccaneers 26 - The Bills fare well for the most part against the reigning Superbowl champions in a surprisingly tight defensive battle that goes back and forth with field goals ruling the roost. Brady gets the ball back with two minutes and change remaining and no time outs. The Bills think they have the drive stopped when Boogie Basham records his first NFL sack on third down at halfway but Tom Brady looks at the referee as he gets up and the ref remembers he is supposed to throw that yellow thing on the floor. The winning touchdown is caught by Antonio Brown who reminds everyone he turned the Bills down just before going off his rocker. Brandon Beane shrugs. 11-2

 

Week 15 - Panthers 30 Bills 34 - The Panthers arrive in Buffalo as one of 2021's surprise packages already with 9 wins and looking to secure a playoff spot in the NFC. For the third time in three seasons the Bills are flexed into the Saturday spot and this is an instant classic. DJ Moore and Robby Anderson take turns in spinning Levi Wallace like a top and the Panthers lead 19-13 at halftime. The Bills claw themselves into a 27-23 lead after a wild 3rd Quarter in which Josh Allen throws for one touchdown and runs for another only for the Panthers to respond with a Sam Darnold score on a Quarterback keeper at the goalline. So it is down to 4th Quarter heroics again and the Bills drive ends up at 4th and 2 right on the edge of Bass's Field Goal range. Sean McDermott rolls the dice and the Bills convert on a flip pass to Dawson Knox before Allen finds Jacob Hollister in the corner of the endzone for his first and only touchdown of the season. 12-2

 

Week 16 - Bills 20 Patriots 21 - The Bills fail to sweep the division for a second straight year losing a heartbreaker in New England. The Bills are ahead in the 4th Quarter when they muff a punt and the Patriots take over with great field position and score through Damien Harris. Sean McDermott takes out his frustration on a sideline telephone. 12-3

 

Week 17 - Falcons 23 Bills 36 - The Bills get up early on the Falcons through Diggs and Beasley with first half touchdown grabs and while Matt Ryan does give the visitors hope early in the second half the Bills keep them at arms length throughout and two long clock killing drives that result in touchdowns sap Atlanta's spirit. The Bills go into week 18 with the chance to clinch the bye and homefield throughout the playoffs. 13-3

 

Week 18 - Jets 14 Bills 40 - The Jets have shown signs of life in Robert Saleh's first year as Head Coach but at this stage they are mentally on the beach and the Bills are laser focussed on SoFi stadium the day before Valentines. McKenzie has his annual week 17 party with two touchdowns and Greg Rousseau sacks Zach Wilson in the 3rd Quarter for his 7th of the season breaking the record for a Bills drafted rookie. 14-3

 

 

So there you have it.... I have kind of surprised myself but my official prediction for the Bills final record is 14-3 and the #1 seed.  That feels a game or two ahead of where my gut says... and I have kind of been thinking 12 or 13 wins all offseason but finding the losses is tricky. Obviously the Titans is the most likely other loss and I called that as a loss last year but I just think Tennessee and Buffalo are two pretty evenly matched teams and games between the two will go back and forth. I said before last season I thought we had the bounce of the ball against them in the previous two seasons when we won close ones and they were "due" well they got all that luck back in spades last season with the covid situation, Tre White being out and then the flukey early INT off Andre Roberts's hands. I just get the sense that the pendulum will swing back our way this year.  Other than that... I think the first two home games are really tricky - Pittsburgh and Washington - both of those are loseable but with home advantage I just give the edge to the Bills. New Orleans on Thanksgiving is a possible trap game on a short week, on the road etc and the Panthers week 15 is a real test (I think they are going to be good and Robby Anderson has always been a tough matchup for Tre White in the past) but the Bills are better than both and should win. 

 

Enjoy the season folks. 

[Giuseppe Tognarelli]

PIT: L

@MIA: W

WFT: W

HOU: W

@KC: L

@TEN: L

MIA: W

@JAC: W

@NYJ: W

IND: W

@NO: W

NE: W

@TB: W

CAR: W

@NE: W

ATL: W

NYJ: W

 

14-3, #2 seed again, win twice at home and go to KC again, but win this time. Bills over Packers in Super Bowl.

[Stank_Nasty]

Our -7 spread for week 1 is tied for the largest spread of the weekend. I really think the week one matchup is one with 2 teams heading in totally opposite directions. Living on the outskirts of “Stiller” country, I can’t think of a better way to start the season than to completely boat race them right out of the gates. 

 

I agree with you in that my gut also says 12-13 wins. But I would argue, if blessed with health, anything up to 15 wins wouldn’t totally surprise me. 

[Beast]

The statistics don't matter. How they got there doesn't matter. The end results are all that matter.

 

The Bills will be the first team to go undefeated since the 72 Dolphins.

 

20-0. Super Bowl Champions.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Beast

[GunnerBill]

10 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Our -7 spread for week 1 is tied for the largest spread of the weekend. I really think the week one matchup is one with 2 teams heading in totally opposite directions. Living on the outskirts of “Stiller” country, I can’t think of a better way to start the season than to completely boat race them right out of the gates. 

 

I agree with you in that my gut also says 12-13 wins. But I would argue, if blessed with health, anything up to 15 wins wouldn’t totally surprise me. 

 

I agree and I expect the Steelers to go under .500. I just think week 1 is the worst time to get them.

[CSBill]

I see 14 wins and a #1 seed.

[Weatherman]

25 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said:

PIT: L

@MIA: W

WFT: W

HOU: W

@KC: L

@TEN: L

MIA: W

@JAC: W

@NYJ: W

IND: W

@NO: W

NE: W

@TB: W

CAR: W

@NE: W

ATL: W

NYJ: W

 

14-3, #2 seed again, win twice at home and go to KC again, but win this time. Bills over Packers in Super Bowl.

Have you seen the Chiefs schedule?  It’s quite the gauntlet, highly unlikely they go 14-3 IMO. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Weatherman said:

Have you seen the Chiefs schedule?  It’s quite the gauntlet, highly unlikely they go 14-3 IMO. 

 

Talking of schedules go look at the first half of the Colts season.... brutal. They could end up 1-5 or something like that very easily. 

[Greg S]

I will say 12-5 or 13-4. We always have one of those losses that is "THAT LOSS". A game the Bills shouldn't lose but do. I could see losing to Miami at home as being "THAT LOSS"  or on the road at Jacksonville. That one loss that is a kick right in the nuts and has everyone pissed off. Last season it was the Cardinals game. I do think the Bills win the division. What kind of seed they end up its to early for that. Have a better idea late Nov or early Dec just waiting to see how the AFC plays out.

[Greg S]

7 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Remember the 2014 season opener spread vs the Bears? 
 

Bills were something like 14 point underdogs and won the game outright. 
 

I expect the Bills to win but wouldn’t be surprised if it’s close. 

 

Didn't the Steelers start last year off like 10-0 or 11-1 or something like. Ben will be at strongest in the beginning of the season before the hits and wear and tear of playing factor in. Bills should win but I agree with you this will be close.

[HOUSE]

If this team loses 1 game then I am done

[corta765]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Week 16 - Bills 20 Patriots 21 - The Bills fail to sweep the division for a second straight year losing a heartbreaker in New England. The Bills are ahead in the 4th Quarter when they muff a punt and the Patriots take over with great field position and score through Damien Harris. Sean McDermott takes out his frustration on a sideline telephone. 12-3

 

 

Ah the Bills did sweep their division last year

[No_Matter_What]

Gunner just like last year I think you are overally underestimating our ability to score points. You have us at 28,5 per game, we will go over 30.

 

I think 13-4 is most likely while 14-3 is certainly possible.

 

I do agree we lose with Chiefs again and we will look overmatched, so everybody will say that we won't be able to beat them. Until we do in PO (unless somebody like Browns do that for us).

 

I am also pretty sure we will not sweep division and loss against Pats seems most likely. Dolphins are interesting since if we sweep them once again it starts to be serious mental problem for them.

 

My guess is that we will beat Tampa and Titans. We are too good to lose to both Chiefs and Bucs imo.

 

On the other hand, we are really due for some random loss when we are (big) favourites. Maybe Jags or Jets?

 

So gun to the head I say 13-4 while losing to Chiefs, Pats, Jags and one other (WFT, Dolphins, Jets or Panthers).

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks for the in-depth prediction Gunner…love the optimism!

 

For nearly twenty years I was able to commit to a solidly mediocre 7-9 but that seventeenth game has me on the fence this season. 😉

[No_Matter_What]

31 minutes ago, Greg S said:

I will say 12-5 or 13-4. We always have one of those losses that is "THAT LOSS". A game the Bills shouldn't lose but do. I could see losing to Miami at home as being "THAT LOSS"  or on the road at Jacksonville. That one loss that is a kick right in the nuts and has everyone pissed off. Last season it was the Cardinals game. I do think the Bills win the division. What kind of seed they end up its to early for that. Have a better idea late Nov or early Dec just waiting to see how the AFC plays out.

 

Always? I didn't happen last two years imo. I don't think Cardinals game was in the shouldn't lose category, entering the game I think it was 50/50.

 

But like I said above I agree it happens this year, we are due.

[Freddie's Dead]

14-3

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Gunner just like last year I think you are overally underestimating our ability to score points. You have us at 28,5 per game, we will go over 30.

 

I think 13-4 is most likely while 14-3 is certainly possible.

 

I do agree we lose with Chiefs again and we will look overmatched, so everybody will say that we won't be able to beat them. Until we do in PO (unless somebody like Browns do that for us).

 

I am also pretty sure we will not sweep division and loss against Pats seems most likely. Dolphins are interesting since if we sweep them once again it starts to be serious mental problem for them.

 

My guess is that we will beat Tampa and Titans. We are too good to lose to both Chiefs and Bucs imo.

 

On the other hand, we are really due for some random loss when we are (big) favourites. Maybe Jags or Jets?

 

So gun to the head I say 13-4 while losing to Chiefs, Pats, Jags and one other (WFT, Dolphins, Jets or Panthers).

 

I expect scoring across the league to be slightly down on 2020 which was not just a record but smashed the previous record out of the park. Five teams averaged more than 30 points in 2020. Only one did in 2019. I expect things to settle back to more like 2019 levels with fans back in stands and the NFL remembering to call offensive holding. I think the Bills will be top 3 in points but a tick below 30 per game.

[Greg S]

5 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

Always? I didn't happen last two years imo. I don't think Cardinals game was in the shouldn't lose category, entering the game I think it was 50/50.

 

But like I said above I agree it happens this year, we are due.

 

That all changed when Allen threw that TD pass to Diggs with 30 seconds or so left. Then to lose on hail mary when 3 Bills defenders were in perfect position to make the play. That loss was "THE LOSS" for 2020 as it certainly felt like getting kicked in the nuts.

Edited August 20, 2021 by Greg S

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

 

Always? I didn't happen last two years imo. I don't think Cardinals game was in the shouldn't lose category, entering the game I think it was 50/50.

 

Agree. The Browns in 2019 and Cardinals in 2020 are the closest to surprise losses and both were tricky road games against ascending young teams. McDermott since he has been here has been very, very good at winning the games he should win and not having those shock let down games.

[BillsFanSD]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The Bills fail to sweep the division for a second straight year

Wait -- what?  We swept the division last year.