Chiefs = Paper Tigers

[Boxcar]

11 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

The Titans are a team on the rise and I'll go out on a limb that it will be them and the Bills fighting for the number 1 spot. The NFL is an unpredictable beast and I just don't see the Chiefs as front runner anymore. They were exposed badly by Tampa. Not only that, they have to break in 2 new tackles and you better believe that Frazier w/ an upgraded D-Line is going to send the house. After 2 Superbowl appearances, the odds are stacked against them to make a 3rd one. In fact, only 3 teams have made 3 or more in a row (Bills, Patriots, Dolphins.) 

 

1) Bills

2) Titans

3) Chiefs

4) Browns

5) Ravens

 

 

 

 

 

 

Titans' defense still sucks. I'll take the Chiefs and Browns, maybe even the Ravens, over them easily.

[Greg S]

6 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

Titans' defense still sucks. I'll take the Chiefs and Browns, maybe even the Ravens, over them easily.

 

Unless something like injuries crippling a team it will be between the Chiefs, Bills, Browns, Ravens, Titans, Colts who will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. My dark horse pick would be the Chargers.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Greg S said:

 

Unless something like injuries crippling a team it will be between the Chiefs, Bills, Browns, Ravens, Titans, Colts who will represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. My dark horse pick would be the Chargers.

 

Personally I think it is from the first 4 on that list. Last year I thought it was Chiefs, Bills or Ravens and said that before the start of the season. This year I'd add the Browns.

 

I could see the Titans or possibly the Colts (I have zero faith in their QB situation even when Wentz is healthy) making the AFCCG with a nice run maybe getting one of those top 4 at home in the Divisional Round as a division winner and progressing but I expect either would have to go into Buffalo, KC, Cleveland or Baltimore and win an AFCCG and I just don't see it. 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

23 hours ago, Dr. K said:

I get it that the Chiefs are the favorites in the AFC, and probably should be. But they also went into the Super Bowl favored to win. I said before the game that they would lose, and lose by double figures. 

 

Why? If you look at their play last season, especially in the second half of the season, they barely squeaked out eight of their wins. They lost to the Raiders and Chargers, and in other games:

 

beat the Chargers by 3 in OT

beat the Panthers by 2

beat the Raiders by 4

beat the Bucks by 3

beat the Broncos by 6

beat the Dolphins by 6

beat the Saints by 3

beat the Falcons by 3

 

A good team will win many close games, but when a team wins that many games by less than a touchdown you can expect a regression to the mean. Despite  Mahomes and Kelce and Hill, and the fact they beat the Bills twice last year, I don't see any reason the Bills should be quaking in their boots about playing them. 

I predict the Chiefs will have a fall off this season and would not be at all surprised if they fail to make the playoffs. They lived on the edge last season and when you do that, you are in danger of falling off. 

 

And yet I’d guess that if the Bills won games by those margins, you’d be squarely in the “a win is a win” camp

[Greg S]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Personally I think it is from the first 4 on that list. Last year I thought it was Chiefs, Bills or Ravens and said that before the start of the season. This year I'd add the Browns.

 

I could see the Titans or possibly the Colts (I have zero faith in their QB situation even when Wentz is healthy) making the AFCCG with a nice run maybe getting one of those top 4 at home in the Divisional Round as a division winner and progressing but I expect either would have to go into Buffalo, KC, Cleveland or Baltimore and win an AFCCG and I just don't see it. 

 

Ravens have a solid team but I am not sold on LJ. Yes I know he has done a lot of winning since being in the league but it seems like the league has figured him out a little bit. To me he is a glorified RB playing QB. Force him to play in the pocket and I don't think he can take the Ravens to the Super Bowl. The Ravens do belong on the list since their roster is solid. 

[GunnerBill]

16 minutes ago, Boxcar said:

Titans' defense still sucks. I'll take the Chiefs and Browns, maybe even the Ravens, over them easily.

 

Agree the question mark in Tennessee remains their defense and in particular their secondary for me. Kristian Fulton barely played last year as a rookie due to Covid and injury and I did like him some coming out and Caleb Farley has now practiced for the past week or so which is a positive, but they are to all extents and purposes two rookie corners who I expect to take their bumps somewhat in 2021. Up front a lot depends on Bud Dupree and how he looks when he doesn't have TJ Watt opposite him for defenses to key in on. 

1 minute ago, Greg S said:

 

Ravens have a solid team but I am not sold on LJ. Yes I know he has done a lot of winning since being in the league but it seems like the league has figured him out a little bit. To me he is a glorified RB playing QB. Force him to play in the pocket and I don't think he can take the Ravens to the Super Bowl. The Ravens do belong on the list since their roster is solid. 

 

See I think with Greg Roman there is a route for the Ravens QB'd by Jackson to make a Superbowl. Don't think there is a route for them to be a perennial Superbowl team... but he got Kaepernick there who was not a dissimilar player. The Ravens route is narrower than the Chiefs and the Bills and possible even the Browns but I think they are in that group still. I give them a shot at making the Superbowl from the AFC but they are 4th of 4 if that makes sense. 

[Greg S]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Agree the question mark in Tennessee remains their defense and in particular their secondary for me. Kristian Fulton barely played last year as a rookie due to Covid and injury and I did like him some coming out and Caleb Farley has now practiced for the past week or so which is a positive, but they are to all extents and purposes two rookie corners who I expect to take their bumps somewhat in 2021. Up front a lot depends on Bud Dupree and how he looks when he doesn't have TJ Watt opposite him for defenses to key in on. 

 

See I think with Greg Roman there is a route for the Ravens QB'd by Jackson to make a Superbowl. Don't think there is a route for them to be a perennial Superbowl team... but he got Kaepernick there who was not a dissimilar player. The Ravens route is narrower than the Chiefs and the Bills and possible even the Browns but I think they are in that group still. I give them a shot at making the Superbowl from the AFC but they are 4th of 4 if that makes sense. 

 

I agree they are definitely behind the Chiefs, Bills and Browns. I also like the Colts as well. Reich has done a nice job with them. 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Greg S said:

 

I agree they are definitely behind the Chiefs, Bills and Browns. I also like the Colts as well. Reich has done a nice job with them. 

 

If the Colts had a Quarterback they'd be in that top group for me. But their presumed starter was the worst Quarterback in football last year and he is hurt....

[Patrick Duffy]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

See I think with Greg Roman there is a route for the Ravens QB'd by Jackson to make a Superbowl. Don't think there is a route for them to be a perennial Superbowl team... but he got Kaepernick there who was not a dissimilar player

Will be interesting to see how he does whenever that time comes that Roman is no longer there. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

2 hours ago, snowbelt_subie said:

 

 

idk you can put the chiefs below 2 teams but it seems more Hope than anything.   they are the front runner until proven otherwise they lost one game.

 

As I wrote in an earlier post, by putting the Chiefs at #1 means you put them in the Superbowl. The odds are against them making 3 in a row as only 3 teams have done it ever. I guess it is hope, but there's some decent evidence behind it also.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Sheneneh Jenkins said:

Will be interesting to see how he does whenever that time comes that Roman is no longer there. 

 

Yep. And indeed when he extends and the big $$ years of his contract hit the cap. Those two things make the Ravens "window" less certain that the Bills and the Chiefs for sure.

2 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

As I wrote in an earlier post, by putting the Chiefs at #1 means you put them in the Superbowl. The odds are against them making 3 in a row as only 3 teams have done it ever. I guess it is hope, but there's some decent evidence behind it also.

 

I don't think it does mean that. I think it just means going into the season they remain the team to beat. The best team in the league does not always win or even make the Superbowl. You have one off day in the post season where you don't quite play your best and boom, it's over. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep. And indeed when he extends and the big $$ years of his contract hit the cap. Those two things make the Ravens "window" less certain that the Bills and the Chiefs for sure.

 

I don't think it does mean that. I think it just means going into the season they remain the team to beat. The best team in the league does not always win or even make the Superbowl. You have one off day in the post season where you don't quite play your best and boom, it's over. 

 

I never thought of it that way, but it makes sense. Kind of like the 18-1 Pats were easily the best team of that whole decade until Eli crushed their dreams.

[whorlnut]

On 8/17/2021 at 9:20 AM, 17islongenough said:

Yet they killed the Bills.   What does that make us?

Exactly. Haha. The OP conveniently left that out…ugh

[GunnerBill]

Just now, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

 

I never thought of it that way, but it makes sense. Kind of like the 18-1 Pats were easily the best team of that whole decade until Eli crushed their dreams.

 

Yea, exactly. Or like when the Rex Ryan Jets knocked Manning's Colts out of the playoffs and I think the Steelers ended up in the dance. A lot of times the best team triumphs, don't get me wrong, but it is not always the case. The Chiefs could be the class of the AFC again and get tripped up in the playoffs. 

[eball]

Hear me now and believe me later, but the Chefs are at the beginning of the end of their run.

[Greg S]

6 minutes ago, eball said:

Hear me now and believe me later, but the Chefs are at the beginning of the end of their run.

 

Salary cap will eventually see to that when they can't pay everyone. I know our divisional/rivalry games are usually the most important on the schedule but those B2B games at the Chiefs, Titans are the most important. Win those and get the head to head tiebreaker over them and its a good chance the Bills are the #1 seed assuming they handle business with the rest of their schedule which they should do.

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, eball said:

Hear me now and believe me later, but the Chefs are at the beginning of the end of their run.

 

What is your basis for this?

 

EDIT: it's a genuine question by the way, interested to understand your thinking. Wasn't intended to come of as passive aggressive. 

Edited August 18, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Simon]

21 minutes ago, eball said:

Hear me now and believe me later, but the Chefs are at the beginning of the end of their run.

As long as Mahomes is healthy, they're going to be a problem.

Though I do wonder for how long he is going to be healthy.

[Patrick Duffy]

1 hour ago, eball said:

Hear me now and believe me later, but the Chefs are at the beginning of the end of their run.

Disagree, not as long as PM is there. Would have to be a really crappy team around him. Like Josh had his rookie year

Edited August 18, 2021 by Sheneneh Jenkins

[eball]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

What is your basis for this?

 

EDIT: it's a genuine question by the way, interested to understand your thinking. Wasn't intended to come of as passive aggressive. 

 

Probably just wishful thinking, but I do think Mahomes has reached his apex.  It's a great apex, but he's starting to get dinged up more frequently and health is a concern.  As long as he is healthy KC will be a threat, but I don't expect them to continue to dominate the AFC as they have the past three seasons.