Chiefs = Paper Tigers

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

I agree that they are the best team in the conference (not much argument otherwise imo), but I don't know that I agree with this statement.  As mentioned in the OP they have had a lot of close games (like 17 one score games in the past 2 years, not all with Mahomes).  They have been damn near unstoppable for parts of a game but at this point there seem to be two trends.  They will be hot and cold during a game, and they are good in close games.  To me this further indicates the need to be able to run the ball against them.  That should hopefully cool them off when they are in one of their hot streaks, and also shorten the game if they start off cold.  

 

You have to be able to run it and you have to be able to get pressure on Mahomes on 50% of his dropbacks. Only two teams made that number last year. The Raiders and the Buccs. Both won. 

 

The book on beating the Chiefs is out. It is just not easy to actually put into practice.

[BuffaloMatt]

6 hours ago, 17islongenough said:

Yet they killed the Bills.   What does that make us?

Paper Mache 

[Talley56]

Well, if we're going to bring this up, I keep hearing how great the Browns are supposed to be, and yet some of their wins last year:

 

By 5 and then by 3 over the Bengals

By 3 over the Texans

By 5 over the Eagles

By 2 over the Jaguars

By 2 over the Steelers' 2nd/3rd stringers

[ProcessYaDigg]

3 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

No one can stop Tyreke, Kelce, or Mahomes.    
 

Delete this.  

This is unfortunately true.  All you can do is hope that they make a mistake and then capitalize off of it.

[PS 56]

It's great we are all pumped up for the season but we have 17 games to play.  I wouldn't be cocky regarding the Chiefs or a score of other teams including the fish.

[Nick the Greek]

We played them 2 times last season and I feel like it was never close.. we got whipped. 

 

Here is hoping we can correct that this season. 

[JohnNord]

7 hours ago, Dr. K said:

I don't disagree--the Chiefs beat the Bills badly in the title game. It was their best performance in the last three months of their season.

 

They went 8-0 in one-score games in 2020. So maybe they'll just blow everybody out this season, but I doubt it. They won't go 8-0 in one-score games again. 

This is actually a good point.  While I wouldn’t consider KC to a “paper Tiger,” and expect them to contend for the AFC again, I do think they played their best football game of the season against Buffalo in the AFCCG.

 

They didn’t look anywhere near as good in the other two post season games or down the stretch of the season.  Saying they were “bored” is a lazy excuse.  I can’t ever recall the Patriots being “bored” as the season wore on.  
 

Again - I’m not saying that KC is overrated but if you follow anyone of the analytics crew - they constantly preach about point differential from the previous season

 

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

7 hours ago, Dr. K said:

I get it that the Chiefs are the favorites in the AFC, and probably should be. But they also went into the Super Bowl favored to win. I said before the game that they would lose, and lose by double figures. 

 

Why? If you look at their play last season, especially in the second half of the season, they barely squeaked out eight of their wins. They lost to the Raiders and Chargers, and in other games:

 

beat the Chargers by 3 in OT

beat the Panthers by 2

beat the Raiders by 4

beat the Bucks by 3

beat the Broncos by 6

beat the Dolphins by 6

beat the Saints by 3

beat the Falcons by 3

 

A good team will win many close games, but when a team wins that many games by less than a touchdown you can expect a regression to the mean. Despite  Mahomes and Kelce and Hill, and the fact they beat the Bills twice last year, I don't see any reason the Bills should be quaking in their boots about playing them. 

I predict the Chiefs will have a fall off this season and would not be at all surprised if they fail to make the playoffs. They lived on the edge last season and when you do that, you are in danger of falling off. 

 

 

You can also argue a good team doesn't let their opponent back into games when up by double digits like the Bills did against the Rams and think it was the Raiders. Granted in the 2nd half of the season they did a better job of beating teams up pretty good, but I'm sure KC fans wouldn't be too worried about this.

 

Having said that, I will say teams typically don't have that many consecutive good years, so that's in favor of KC falling off, but could also make that argument for the Bills too.

 

Considering how easily they beat the Bills twice, makes your post is a pretty laughable argument.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

 

Again - I’m not saying that KC is overrated but if you follow anyone of the analytics crew - they constantly preach about point differential from the previous season

So looks like Ravens over the Saints in the Super Bowl.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

You can also argue a good team doesn't let their opponent back into games when up by double digits like the Bills did against the Rams and think it was the Raiders. Granted in the 2nd half of the season they did a better job of beating teams up pretty good, but I'm sure KC fans wouldn't be too worried about this.

 

Having said that, I will say teams typically don't have that many consecutive good years, so that's in favor of KC falling off, but could also make that argument for the Bills too.

 

Considering how easily they beat the Bills twice, makes your post is a pretty laughable argument.

The interesting thing is that all of the SB contenders (Bills, Chiefs, Bucs, Packers) are returning with a ton of continuity.  As far as I know, the majority of their coaching staff and most of their rosters will be back.  KC will have a different OL but that is likely to their benefit

 

I think we’ll get to see how important continuity will be for those teams this year 

[BillsPride12]

You can't be a Paper Tiger when you are two years removed from taking home the hardware

[cle23]

8 hours ago, Rico said:

They beat the Texans, Titans, and a Kyle Shanahan team to win their Super Bowl. 
 

They were exposed as frauds in the second Super Bowl.

 

This is the most tryhard trolling I've ever seen.

[Zerovoltz]

8 hours ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

I watched a few of those Chiefs games, and have to say, even if the final score was close they completely dominated. 

 

The Bucs game (regular season) Tyreek Hill had 200+ yards and 3 TDs....by halftime. They had a 17 point lead going into the 4th and took their foot off the gas. 

 

The Dolphins game they scored 30 unanswered points including 21 points in < 3 minutes of game time. They had a 20 point lead going into the 4th before taking their foot off the gas. 

 

They are so talented they can beat quality teams when they only bring their "A game" for 1-2 quarters and sleep walk through the 4th. 

 

They might miss the playoffs....if Mahomes gets injured. Other than that they are overwhelming favorites to make the playoffs, and well deserved favorites to win the SB. 

 

This is correct.  KC was awful VS the spread last year....got out to big leads and then took foot off gas....other times when could have put the hammer down, but couldn't convert 3rd and short etc.  SEE MORE BELOW.  

 

6 hours ago, Dr. K said:

You're right--I should not have used the term "paper tigers." Maybe it should have been "Chiefs = Vulnerable" 

 

But my point is that the Chiefs are not the invincible machine that so many people here and in the press say they are. They are vulnerable, and they showed it repeatedly in the run-up to the Super Bowl, where the best game they played from the beginning of November to the Super Bowl was the one they played against the Bills, aided by refs who put away their whistles on holding by the Chiefs secondary. 

 

The Chiefs have more than earned their respect from the rest of the league. But they aren't the 1942 Bears. 

 

Vulnerable isn't a bad way to put it in the sense that KC was absolutely awful on 3rd and short and goal to go with the bad O line.  KC was also not a good red zone team.  When KC should have and could have put the death blow on teams...they simply couldn't do it most times.  Allowed teams to hang in and get late scores or prevented KC from getting that last nail into the coffin.  SEE MORE BELOW

 

5 hours ago, BTB said:

The OP is just trying to lure 0.0 volts into a prolonged and heated argument. 😂

 

It worked.

 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You have to be able to run it and you have to be able to get pressure on Mahomes on 50% of his dropbacks. Only two teams made that number last year. The Raiders and the Buccs. Both won. 

 

The book on beating the Chiefs is out. It is just not easy to actually put into practice.

 

I can't deny this stat as it is a fact, but I would say that the Raiders win didn't have anything to do with 50% pressures on MAhomes...KC put up 32 points in that loss.  Las Vegas had 40.  The Raiders have been a bad matchup for KC for a while....as they throw a TON of passes to the TE and backs out of backfield....KC's weakest aspects of defense.  

 

 

in 2018, KC had a starting O line of:

 

LT Eric Fisher

LG Cameron Erving

C Mitch Morse (pre concussions)

RG Andrew Wylie and later Laurant Duvernay-Tardiff

RT Mitch Schwartz

 

That was the best line Mahomes had been with since his time starting in KC.  That team was good in the red zone, and decent and short yardage conversions.

 

That offseason, KC lost Morse to the Bills.  Also in 2019 Eric Fisher missed 8 games due to injury.  KC also had to rotate in guys at LG for injury, and also, Mahomes got injured and missed a few games, as well as playing hurt.  KC's offensive metrics dropped across the board...especially games where Fisher was out.

KC got healthy toward the end of that season, including having Fisher healthy at the end.  KC put up 51, 35, and 31 points in the playoffs.

 

In 2020, KC lost Laurant Duvarnay Tardiff to covid opt out.  A couple games in they lost the starting LG, a game or 2 later, they lost RT Mitch Schwartz for the season.  KC's red zone and short yardage metrics were HORRIBLE as a result.  ...and then KC lost Fisher at the end of the AFCCG... resulting in KC rolling with only C Ausin Reiter the Center and worst player on the line when healthy....as the lone starter remaining.  2nd and 3rd stringers started at the G and OT spot in the SB.  ...against a team that has a great 4 man rush.  We lost..I'm not whining about it....TB won.  My hats off to them.  They are the champions.

 

.....KC is the Vegas favorite for a reason.

 

Let me address what KC lost in the offseason first...because it's been brought up that KC lost 8 starters.

 

Guys KC lost who started.

C Austin Reiter.  Remains unsigned as of this post.  He sucks.  

DE Tanoh Kpasagnon.  Very much a JAG...no impact player.  his production (next to nothing) is easily replacable for less money

WR Sammy Watkins. .......  do I need to make an explanation for him?

LT Eric Fisher  .....  Injured

RT Mitch Schwartz.  Injured and remains unsiged and has infact been hanging around KC and helping coach up the new line guys....rumored to be retired but not officially.

LB  Damien Wilson  ....another JAG whose replacement is better and cheaper

CB Bashaud Breeland .....this is the one that matters most....good CB that fit will in the system.

S  Juan Thornhill.....recovering from injury....not sure he'll be the same player, he hasn't been with the 1s much.

 

If you are losing 8 starters...those are the 8 you don't mind losing (except Breeland)  

 

The important part of this is O line.

 

Traded for LT Orlando Brown

Signed LG Joe Thuney

drafted C Creed Humphrey

drafted RG Trey Smith

drafted RT Lucas Niang
 

This will 99.9 percent be by far the best line Mahomes has had since he joined the Chiefs.  The early returns are good.  If KC is a threat to run on short yardage and in goal to go situations, that means the full playbook is available and defenses can't drop 7-8 and rush 3-4 all the time.  

 

On defense, Willie Gay is looking like the speedy, coverage LB we've been missing, and rookie LB Bolton reports are good on so far too (very early on that yet though)

 

Add to that, KC signed Jarron Reed, and Last year rookie impact UDFA Tershawn Wharton has given KC the depth to move Chris Jones to DE.....that has looked really good so far too.  

 

It is not lost on me that I am a biased KC fan. so take this all with a small grain of salt...but I'm not at all beyond being critical of my own team.  

 

Vegas has KC as front runners for a reason...they know those close games last year were not KC struggling to win...but struggling to put teams away late and letting them back in.  They know the line being better will improve the metrics that kept KC from closing out teams.......

 

I am predicting KC gets the 1 seed, is in the SB again, and will win it all.  (bla bla bla bias...but Vegas sees it as I do)  

 

Buffalo is the main threat.  CLEVELAND is the actual paper tiger.  Bunch of close 1 score games.   they rely on turnovers and game management to win..that leaves room for lucky bounces etc.

[Rico]

21 minutes ago, cle23 said:

 

This is the most tryhard trolling I've ever seen.

Yeah, I’m trolling Chiefs lovers on a Bills message board. 

 

No, as always, I’m just keeping it real.

[Ya Digg?]

7 hours ago, Dr. K said:

Only undefeated NFL season ever.

 

I'm very old. 😀

Wait am I missing something? The dolphins went undefeated in 1972

 

22 minutes ago, Rico said:

Yeah, I’m trolling Chiefs lovers on a Bills message board. 

 

No, as always, I’m just keeping it real.

You kept nothing real-you can’t possibly believe that the Chiefs are frauds. You went for the troll comment, got called out, then doubled down. Love the enthusiasm, but I find it hard to believe you actually believe what you’re saying 

[Locomark]

Last year in the 2 games against us Mahomes had 78% completions, Josh < 60%. So it looks like whatever they write on their paper tiger works. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

11 hours ago, 17islongenough said:

Yet they killed the Bills.   What does that make us?

 

Well, the Baltimore Ravens beat the Tennessee Titans who beat us and we beat the Baltimore Ravens so how exactly does that work? It's strictly about matchups, my friend. Unfortunately, KC is not a good one for us, but that doesn't deter me from agreeing w/ OP on them taking a SLIGHT dip next year. 👌

 

They aren't "paper tigers," but I think they are overrated af. Brady and the BUCS defense laid a vicious beating on them that I don't think they will forget anytime soon + the tape is out. Pressure Mahomes (like most quarterbacks) and you'll see him fall apart. This is precisely what Beane & McDermott had in my mind during the draft & free agency. Shame we couldn't land JJ Watt. 

[Dr. K]

13 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Wait am I missing something? The dolphins went undefeated in 1972

 

You kept nothing real-you can’t possibly believe that the Chiefs are frauds. You went for the troll comment, got called out, then doubled down. Love the enthusiasm, but I find it hard to believe you actually believe what you’re saying 

You're right. Even if I've always thought that season was a mirage.

[Rico]

4 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Wait am I missing something? The dolphins went undefeated in 1972

 

You kept nothing real-you can’t possibly believe that the Chiefs are frauds. You went for the troll comment, got called out, then doubled down. Love the enthusiasm, but I find it hard to believe you actually believe what you’re saying 

Chiefs are a BS franchise, always have been, always will be. I’ll give them props for getting a ring, but I’m not impressed at all by that 2019 team or the ‘Murderer’s Row’ they faced in the playoffs & SB. Their fat ***** of a HC has made a career out of choking in big games, he got lucky once, good for him, but vintage Andy Reid returned in last year’s SB. It is what it is.