Chiefs = Paper Tigers

[clayboy54]

1 hour ago, beebe said:

 

I don't think Andy has a history of 'tailing off.' He endured personal tragedy at the end of an otherwise brilliant Eagles tenure and had a tough QB situation where guys like Kolb and Foles were thrown into the mix. His Chiefs tenure so far has been a winning season every season, and one of the fastest coaches in history to 100 wins with a given team, and now coming off B2B Super Bowl appearances. I do think the situation with his son last year was an unwanted distraction before the Super Bowl, and I think it continues to linger in the back of his mind even now. But I don't think we're seeing a massive erosion in quality here (KC's offense still ranks #1 in DVOA and is on an epic pace in terms of points per drive; better than any year before it.) Few teams would be above .500 against the schedule KC has played so far. Five new offensive line starters — that was always going to be a process. The defense, as bad as it has been, would undoubtedly look better if they hadn't played arguably the top four offenses in the AFC to open the year. Fact is, the Bills, Browns, Ravens and Chargers are going to make lots of defenses look stupid. Particularly one that's been missing some of its best pieces. 

 

 

Remember that last season the Bills had the schedule from hell, with the NFC West among others. We still did alright as will the Chiefs this season. But, it does make a difference. Had the Bills won the Hail Murray game at AZ, the AFCCG might have been in Buffalo. So, you just don't know. Either way, you'll be around at the end.

[416BillsFan]

3 hours ago, beebe said:

The Chiefs have had their fair share of schedule luck through the years, while the Bills essentially had to compete for one of two Wild Card spots every year for nearly two decades due to NE's dominance. So I'm not complaining. But...we've reached the point where schedule matters just as much as team ability.

 

Buffalo's schedule looked historically easy when it came out. That was when the Texans were presumed to have Watson at QB and when the Dolphins seemed competent. Now the Texans are a dumpster fire while the Dolphins are lost at sea. 

 

It is absurd that the Bills and Chiefs are competing for playoff positioning with schedules this drastically different. I thought the Chiefs were the best team in the AFC in preseason (I no longer think that, I think the Bills are the best), and yet, I never at any point gave the Chiefs a real chance of winning the #1 seed. The Bills' schedule, matched with their talent, was going to be impossible to topple. As an NFL fan, not just a Chiefs fan, I think that sucks. 

 

While 2-3 is an underachieve for the Chiefs, few teams who open with Browns, at Ravens, Chargers, at Eagles, Bills were going to start 4-1 or 5-0. As bad as the Chiefs have been this year, I am near certain they would have entered the Buffalo game at 4-0 had schedules been reversed. I think it's time for the NFL to re-think the four-team division structure. In fact, I'd scrap divisions entirely. Each AFC team should play each other once per year round robin style — alternating home and away each year — and then play three games per year vs NFC teams (18-game schedule, one fewer NFLx game, add in an extra bye week.) Isn't that better? Are Colts fans really clamoring to play two games every year vs the Jaguars? Would the Bills' playoff drought have ever reached what it was had they not been dealt two auto losses every year vs the Pats dynasty? Is it fun for a fanbase to travel to the same city four straight years as the Bills did when they played at KC in '08, '09, '10, '11? Everything about the NFL's approach to scheduling is stupid and inequitable and always has been. 

 

No idea what compelled me to go on a scheduling rant, sorry about that! 

The NFL scheduling system is mostly fine IMO but the AFCE has been a complete outlier for almost 20 years. The only close 2 division races since the 2003 season were the 2009 or 10 Jets vs Pats then the Brady injury year. 2019 was somewhat close - but not really - the Pats finished 2 games ahead and beat us both times. No other division has been as anti-competitive for that long.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, beebe said:

Chiefs fan here. Congrats on the win. I am not at all surprised Buffalo beat KC. The Bills are simply the better, more complete team right now, and are possibly a better version of the Chiefs team that won the Super Bowl two years ago. 

 

I hope you're right!

 

1 hour ago, beebe said:

"KC is too talented to stay down for long." That's what everybody keeps saying. And while I tend to agree with that, the schedule outside of this week's game at Washington and the MNF game vs the Giants is unrelenting hell. At Titans. Vs Packers. At Chargers. Vs Cowboys. Two games against the Raiders. Two games against the Broncos. The "easy" games late are a home date with the Steelers and a late-season trip to Cincinnati. The Chiefs look exhausted. They are taking every team's best shot, and every team — Buffalo included — is showing them stuff they've never seen before. Meanwhile, the Bills are likely to coast to the #1 seed in the AFC (the Ravens have the most realistic chance to compete with them for it.)

 

I dunno.  I think there are a couple of fixable factors for the Chiefs.  The question is how quick they are to address.

1) It's my impression, and correct me if I'm wrong, that the re-vamped OL hasn't quite come up to speed yet.  The general impression I have is that they're better in the middle, but that Orlando Brown hasn't always been the elite LT they hoped they traded for, and that Niang has been doing well for a 3rd round rookie but any OL with 3 rookies is bound to have growing pains.  The KC OL is well-coached and they should improve

2) Let me tie threads together and bring in this assessment from Jim Kubiak of The Buffalo News, who writes a weekly column analyzing Bills QB play:

Quote

Following Super Bowl LV – Tampa Bay’s 31-9 dismantling of the Chiefs – the Bills’ organization recognized the template and formula that frustrated and minimized Andy Reid’s explosive team. Beane saw that Tampa Bay defensive coordinator Todd Bowles’ two-safety coverage gave the Bucs the ability to show a pre-snap look and then play a post-snap defense that consistently forced the Chiefs to throw short.

This sounds obvious, and it is, but the reason why not everyone can do it is defensive linemen. The Bucs had a powerful defensive front (Ndamukong Suh, Rakeem Nunez-Roches, William Gholston, Jason Pierre-Paul), and those players controlled the run, while impeding Mahomes’ comfort and production in the pocket.

When Tom Brady and the Bucs beat the Chiefs, Beane knew immediately what he needed to do – copy the template. Build a pass rush that would allow McDermott and defensive coordinator Leslie Frazier to prevent the lifelines to success, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, from making any big plays down the field. The Bucs demonstrated that Mahomes lacked the consistency from the pocket to do enough damage to win without game-breaking plays after the catch from Hill.

Kubiak doesn't mention, but another component of that of course, is decent run defense which the Bills did not demonstrate against KC last season.

Anyway, the point is, the Bills, Ravens, Chargers, and Browns are among the top teams in the AFC and probably the league.  I don't think the Cowboys and the Packers have enough defense to shut you down, not sure about the Titans or Broncos either.  I think the Raiders are gonna be in disarray, but we'll see.  These teams may not have the defense to do what the Bills, Ravens, Chargers and Browns managed.

 

And again - a lot is in the Chiefs control, for Mahomes and other players to be more careful and disciplined with the football.

 

Good post! 

[GoBills808]

They used a first round pick to draft a mediocre running back with guys like Jaylon Johnson, Antoine Winfield Jr, and Trevon Diggs still on the board. They deserve everything that’s coming to them, it’s just a hilariously bad pick.

 

 

[JohnNord]

On 8/17/2021 at 9:18 AM, Dr. K said:

I get it that the Chiefs are the favorites in the AFC, and probably should be. But they also went into the Super Bowl favored to win. I said before the game that they would lose, and lose by double figures. 

 

Why? If you look at their play last season, especially in the second half of the season, they barely squeaked out eight of their wins. They lost to the Raiders and Chargers, and in other games:

 

beat the Chargers by 3 in OT

beat the Panthers by 2

beat the Raiders by 4

beat the Bucks by 3

beat the Broncos by 6

beat the Dolphins by 6

beat the Saints by 3

beat the Falcons by 3

 

A good team will win many close games, but when a team wins that many games by less than a touchdown you can expect a regression to the mean. Despite  Mahomes and Kelce and Hill, and the fact they beat the Bills twice last year, I don't see any reason the Bills should be quaking in their boots about playing them. 

I predict the Chiefs will have a fall off this season and would not be at all surprised if they fail to make the playoffs. They lived on the edge last season and when you do that, you are in danger of falling off. 

 

I wouldn’t say paper tigers, but I did think that their struggles toward the end of the season could be indicative of a bigger problem in the playoffs.  I never bought the fan base excuse that they were “bored.”

 

Unfortunately we had to wait until after they beat the Bills for them to play terrible but there were signs of weaknesses before then.   Unfortunately Mahomes along with Hill and Kelce, to a lesser extent, cover up a lot of issues 

58 minutes ago, Motor26 said:

The lack of a Watkins replacement is one of their biggest issues offensively. Those 3 can easily take over a game, but are having a hard time doing so because teams know they can just key on them. Their lack of a run game also hurts them. They are still a good team and will be a factor in the playoffs.

Watkins was injured half of the time in KC.  He was active last season in the Super Biwl and it didn’t make a difference.  

[billsfan_34]

On 10/13/2021 at 2:10 PM, Rochesterfan said:

 

I think the difference with KC is multi fold.

 

1) Many teams - Buffalo, Baltimore, and LA Chargers in specific have gotten young and talented QBs of their own - and that mixed with those teams improving - have reduced/eliminated any significant advantage KC had for a couple of years.

 

2.) KC has done a very poor job at acquiring talent on the offensive side of the ball.  Hill and Kelce are both elite, but they are desperate for a couple more play makers in the passing game and that is evident by the signing of Gordon.  Hardman - although not a bust - has not become anything on the offensive side and without additional targets - Teams are doubling Hill deep and trying to manhandle Kelce.

 

3.) KC’s defense has to many weak spots.  They have a boatload of talent and showed they can still make coverages work, but in trying to flood the middle depth zones 10-25 yards downfield - they allowed themselves to get beat deep and also get beat short.  The Bills lost their Bread and Butter plays, but still had more than enough other places to make plays.  
 

All of these things have become evident, but they are still a really good team - they are just in a bad place with a very tough division and then tough out of division games.  I still think they have maybe a few more loses on this schedule - so it is really going to be an uphill battle from here.  I don’t think they can afford many (or any) let down games and make the playoffs.  They have lost to 3 teams above them and that puts them in a very tough spot for tie breakers.  It might come down to does Baltimore or Cleveland win the North as a determining factor in seeding and making the playoffs.

 

 

I say your points are valid and add…going on a limb: KC wildcard at best.

[benderbender]

Good googily moogily

Edited October 15, 2021 by benderbender

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

On 10/13/2021 at 2:19 PM, GoBills808 said:

They used a first round pick to draft a mediocre running back with guys like Jaylon Johnson, Antoine Winfield Jr, and Trevon Diggs still on the board. They deserve everything that’s coming to them, it’s just a hilariously bad pick.

 

 

Yep. Another reason why Beane is a genius. Both our 3rd round RB’s are every bit as good as CEH if not bet r even. And they are both completely interchangeable and can play all 3 downs.

[Scott7975]

On 10/13/2021 at 4:37 PM, Motor26 said:

The lack of a Watkins replacement is one of their biggest issues offensively. Those 3 can easily take over a game, but are having a hard time doing so because teams know they can just key on them. Their lack of a run game also hurts them. They are still a good team and will be a factor in the playoffs.

 

That shouldn't have been that hard.  Watkins avg ~500 yards 2.5 TDs 27 first downs a season for them.  Dude was good when he wanted to be but always hurt. 5 weeks into the season for Baltimore and he is already hurt again. This is 3 years in a row that Watkins has been injured by week 5.

[Zerovoltz]

Addressing some of the last several posts.

 

1.  the O line has been pretty good...especially the interior 3.  Niang has had some growing pains...but overall, has been decent.  Orlando Brown has been OK, but he isn't elite.  There are cap reasons why Eric Fisher isn't a Chief now...but when healthy, he's a better player than Brown.  Brown hasn't been awful, he's just not great.  Overall, this line is better now, than what KC ran out last year.  Of the troubles KC has had, the line really hasn't been one.

 

2.  It's been mentioned one way or another that Clyde Edwards Helaire has been a bad draft choice.  I AGREE!.  You don't take RB that high....unless he's the next Barry Sanders...and there hasn't been one of those since....Barry Sanders.  When KC drafted CEH...the talk was that he would contribute in the passing game....that you could split him out wide and so on.  HE SUCKS in the passing game.  They don't trust him or use him...he's also a bad pass blocker.  As a runner, I don't think I've ever seen a RB with worse field vision.  He doens't understand how to play off his blockers...and if the line does a good job and makes a 7 yard hole...CEH gets exactly 7 yards out of it.  He doesn't make anyone miss and he doesn't break tackles.  He's awful in the screen game as well. Has ZERO concept of following blockers...just catches the ball and takes off, rendering the blockers useless.  CEH leaves a TON of yards on the field.  Horrible draft choice, in an era where RB's are a dime a dozen...waste of a high value pick.

 

3.  KC has gone with a "stars and jags" approach.  I don't have a problem with that if done right.  KC hasn't quite done it right.  KC has tried to keep everyone.  That's tough to do, and when you dole out big contracts to your guys, you need two things to happen more often than not...A) you need your big money guys to live up to their contracts.  And B) you need your jags to outplay their cheap contracts.  In KCs case, too much of the big money on D hasn't come through.  Frank Clarks contract is bad.  Chris Jones contract is ok, but he needs to be playing as an inside pass rusher...that's where he's elite...not at END where he is MEH and a waste of money and talent.  Anthony Hitchens contract is AWFUL and so poorly written that they've had to live with him at MLB for years and can finally escape this upcoming offseason. 

 

the other half of this is that KC simply hasn't drafted well enough to sustain this at present.  KC has spent too many 2nd-4th round picks on guys who can't get on the field.  That's a HUGE problem if you ***** Stars and Jags....you can't keep missing on draft picks (especially 2nd and 3rds) who don't contribute with cheap contracts and above average production.  KC simply hasn't gotten enough out of drafts recently to make this work.

 

4.  KC coaches have got to admit that the leauge is agressively working to take Hill and Kelce out of games and are playing 2 deep to limit big plays.  There is a certain amount of ego and arrogance involved here where KC thinks it can dictate the play on O and call and do what they want when they want.  Not now.  KC needs to run teams out of their light box looks instead of calling pass plays that are covered by what teams are doing.  Run until they get out of the two deep.  Run short slants etc utnil they get out of the two deep.  KC refuses....still running alot plays with deep routes even when the box is light. 

 

5.  Specific to this defense , this year...KC hasn't blitzed much....the D is getting burnt up.  Sorenson, Hitchens, and Ben Nieman are SLOW and not good at much.  Might as well blitz and at least get guys who can run on the field.  Blitzing will get them burnt too, but if they cause a TO or incompletion sometimes...it would be better than what's they've been doing. 

 

All ths said....KC is still something like 3rd on O and still have Mahomes, Kelce and Hill.  This is going to be one of those years where we just need to get to the playoffs and hopefully get hot at the right time.  The AFC isnt going through KC this year for sure.     

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 10/13/2021 at 2:18 PM, beebe said:

I don't think Andy has a history of 'tailing off.' He endured personal tragedy at the end of an otherwise brilliant Eagles tenure and had a tough QB situation where guys like Kolb and Foles were thrown into the mix. His Chiefs tenure so far has been a winning season every season, and one of the fastest coaches in history to 100 wins with a given team, and now coming off B2B Super Bowl appearances. I do think the situation with his son last year was an unwanted distraction before the Super Bowl, and I think it continues to linger in the back of his mind even now.

 

This could be a point.  It may be closer to the front of his mind at times than we know. 

His son just had a court appearance and is now scheduled to face trial on felony DUI charges in April.
https://arrowheadaddict.com/2021/09/17/britt-reid-what-is-next-drunk-driving-charges-april-trial-date-kc-chiefs/

 

Reid may have several things besides football on his mind:

1) Can his son work?  if not....support of his son's family - married with 3 kids.

2) Ensuring rehab for his son and worry will he stay clean?

3) Legal defense criminal and unless a settlement is reached, most assuredly civil

4) Does he have any concern/involvement in funding the ongoing care and rehab for the injured child?

https://www.kshb.com/news/local-news/mother-of-child-injured-in-britt-reid-crash-voices-frustration-via-facebook

5) This is his second kid to have tragedy.  It weighs on the minds of the people I know who have faced tragedy with their kids..."what could I have done differently as a parent?"  Does it weigh on Reid's mind?

 

It's mostly the tragedy of that little girl and her family, but it's Reid's family tragedy too.

[L Ron Burgundy]

On 8/17/2021 at 9:18 AM, Dr. K said:

I get it that the Chiefs are the favorites in the AFC, and probably should be. But they also went into the Super Bowl favored to win. I said before the game that they would lose, and lose by double figures. 

 

Why? If you look at their play last season, especially in the second half of the season, they barely squeaked out eight of their wins. They lost to the Raiders and Chargers, and in other games:

 

beat the Chargers by 3 in OT

beat the Panthers by 2

beat the Raiders by 4

beat the Bucks by 3

beat the Broncos by 6

beat the Dolphins by 6

beat the Saints by 3

beat the Falcons by 3

 

A good team will win many close games, but when a team wins that many games by less than a touchdown you can expect a regression to the mean. Despite  Mahomes and Kelce and Hill, and the fact they beat the Bills twice last year, I don't see any reason the Bills should be quaking in their boots about playing them. 

I predict the Chiefs will have a fall off this season and would not be at all surprised if they fail to make the playoffs. They lived on the edge last season and when you do that, you are in danger of falling off. 

 

No.  They got bored and sloppy.  They are very good.  That offense will adapt and they will get 11 wins.  Defense will improve a bit as well.  Without the turnovers I think our game is a lot closer.

[NewEra]

terrible usage of draft picks from 2018 til 2020

 

3 draft classes yielded two decent picks

Sneed rd 4- great pick very good player.  posterized by 17

Fenton rd 6- solid depth corner in rd 6= an ok pick 

 

2020 CEH and Gay in rd 1-2.  terrible positional value spent on two average joes.  wasted picks. Niang in rd 3 might turn out ok, but isnt just yet.  Danna in rd 5 might be ok too, but seems like a dime a dozen DE so far.  Armani Watts, Tremon Smith and Kahlil Mckenzie, meh.

 

2019 Hardman- waste of a 1st rd pick, especially when you look at the WRs that they passed on.  I'd give the Hardman pick an F grade.  poo poo.  Thornhill in rd 2 looked to be promising.....until he couldnt beat out Dan Sorenson.  Now he's considered worse than sorenson.  F.  Khalen Saunders in rd 3.  who?  I can't grade the pick because I've never watched him play.  Maybe he's a beast run stopper.... or maybe he's second coming of adolphus Washington, a waste of a 3rd rd pick.  darwin thompson and nick allegretti arent terrible picks but don't move the needle

 

2018- We had their first rd pick but they had the rest of their picks-  Breeland Speaks was their first pick.  He played in 2018, starting 4.  He never played again.  Currently on the cowboys PS. Nnadi in rd 2 and O'daniel in rd 3 have contributed next to nothing.  Armani Watts, Tremon Smith and Kahlil Mckenzie, meh.

 

Terrible drafting.  Scouting department needs to go.  GM using high picks on less valuable positions

 

 

[Behindenemylines]

I won’t say anything until they are out of the playoffs or we knock the snot out of them again in the playoffs.  
 

Can’t count them out until their out.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, NewEra said:

terrible usage of draft picks from 2018 til 2020

 

3 draft classes yielded two decent picks

Sneed rd 4- great pick very good player.  posterized by 17

Fenton rd 6- solid depth corner in rd 6= an ok pick 

 

2020 CEH and Gay in rd 1-2.  terrible positional value spent on two average joes.  wasted picks. Niang in rd 3 might turn out ok, but isnt just yet.  Danna in rd 5 might be ok too, but seems like a dime a dozen DE so far.  Armani Watts, Tremon Smith and Kahlil Mckenzie, meh.

 

2019 Hardman- waste of a 1st rd pick, especially when you look at the WRs that they passed on.  I'd give the Hardman pick an F grade.  poo poo.  Thornhill in rd 2 looked to be promising.....until he couldnt beat out Dan Sorenson.  Now he's considered worse than sorenson.  F.  Khalen Saunders in rd 3.  who?  I can't grade the pick because I've never watched him play.  Maybe he's a beast run stopper.... or maybe he's second coming of adolphus Washington, a waste of a 3rd rd pick.  darwin thompson and nick allegretti arent terrible picks but don't move the needle

 

2018- We had their first rd pick but they had the rest of their picks-  Breeland Speaks was their first pick.  He played in 2018, starting 4.  He never played again.  Currently on the cowboys PS. Nnadi in rd 2 and O'daniel in rd 3 have contributed next to nothing.  Armani Watts, Tremon Smith and Kahlil Mckenzie, meh.

 

Terrible drafting.  Scouting department needs to go.  GM using high picks on less valuable positions

 

 

 

The 2018 class was pretty much a total bust. They got one guy Derrick Nnadi who can play. He is a starting level 1 tech. Never gonna be a superstar but a steady starter. 

 

In 2019 Hardman was not a 1st round pick just to clarify. He was their first pick in that draft but he was a 2nd rounder. Three of the next four receivers take - DK Metcalf, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin. Maybe DK was less of a scheme fit for them I can see that... but Johnson and McLaurin would both of been capable of doing more than Hardman. If they were looking for speed McLaurin in particular was the pick. I had a 5th rounder on Hardman I was shocked he went that high. What is happening with Thornhill is a mystery to me. He was excellent as a rookie, had a great game when they came to Buffalo a year ago, but then did have some struggles down the stretch last year and they appear to have completely gone away from him. I think he is talented but they are sticking with Sorenson who is terrible. That night be on coaching rather than scouting. They also got Rashad Fenton and Nick Allegretti from that 2019 class in the 6th and 7th rounds and have got good value from both. Fenton has played a fair number of snaps as a low end starting corner and Allegretti started in two Superbowls for them albeit has lost his job to Thuney. 

 

In 2020 Michael Danna (another one of my Shrine Game boys) as a rotational D end in the 5th is not bad but the star of that class is L'Jarius Sneed who was one of the best nickel corners in the NFL as a rookie. They have tried to move him around this year and use him outside some, and as I predicted when talking to our other regular Chiefs contributor on this board in the summer he has struggled. File this in the same drawer as "put Chris Jones back to 3 tech", Sneed should go back to playing purely in the nickel. Moving your good players to positions where they are less good to try and patch holes is a bad strategy. I think Willie Gay if he stays healthy can play but question positional value (more to come). 

 

In 2021 they drafted for need. I actually think both Nick Bolton and Creed Humphrey were both end of round 2, early 3 type prospects. No issue with them as players as such, but how can a team with needs at receiver, corner and edge end up picking a running back, two linebackers and a center in its last four 1st and 2nd round picks? You can justify Bolton's position value if you say look he is going to be our Mike and call our defense. Great. So what is Willie Gay who you took the year before doing? Is he playing the Will? The Bills found their Will linebacker in round 5. The Chiefs best pick of this draft is Trey Smith who without the medical question would have gone at the latest in round 3. 

 

Their drafting in the early rounds is a strange mix of splashy unnecessary offensive weapons "Hardman is so fast", "CEH can do it all" and then too many meat and potatoes positions early. I wouldn't characterise their drafting as awful... Smith and Sneed on day 3 were excellent choices. Just a bit confused. But I don't think it is all on drafting. Coaching has not been great either and they have, as Hapless alluded to, played a really tough schedule through 5 weeks. It lightens up somewhat from here. The Chiefs are still a playoff team. But I think they are more flawed than they have been.

 

 

Edit: just quickly on Orlando Brown, I am a big fan. I had a 1st round grade on him coming out and I was not surprised by his success in Baltimore. He is still adjusting to what Kansas City do. He didn't have to wide protect on deep drops much in Baltimore where most of their passing was from pistol and Mahomes with his 7 and 9 step drops is a different beast. But he will figure it out. Too talented not to.

Edited October 16, 2021 by GunnerBill

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

14 hours ago, NewEra said:

2019 Hardman- waste of a 1st rd pick, especially when you look at the WRs that they passed on.  I'd give the Hardman pick an F grade.  poo poo.  

 

LOL. Hardman was a first round pick? I honestly would have guessed street free agent signing post draft over a 1st round pick. The CEH pick has to be the worst though. I mean contrast it with Beane who is taking RB's just as good if not better than CEH and taking them two rounds later. And Beane gets talent at one of the five most crucial positions on a team in the first two rounds, DE and interior D-line.

14 hours ago, Behindenemylines said:

I won’t say anything until they are out of the playoffs or we knock the snot out of them again in the playoffs.  
 

Can’t count them out until their out.  

 

 

I'm going to be nauseous and nervous as ever going into the Bills first play off game no matter who they play. Especially if they have the #1 seed and are coming off not playing meaningful football for two or three weeks.

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

15 hours ago, Zerovoltz said:

4.  KC coaches have got to admit that the leauge is agressively working to take Hill and Kelce out of games and are playing 2 deep to limit big plays.  There is a certain amount of ego and arrogance involved here where KC thinks it can dictate the play on O and call and do what they want when they want.  Not now.  KC needs to run teams out of their light box looks instead of calling pass plays that are covered by what teams are doing.  Run until they get out of the two deep.  Run short slants etc utnil they get out of the two deep.  KC refuses....still running alot plays with deep routes even when the box is light. 

 

Problem with that is opponents will gladly give up 200+ on the ground and increase the number of plays the Chiefs have to use to put the ball in the end zone. Every additional play is a chance for a holding penalty, fumble etc. And the two Bills games last year I think proved which method keeps a game closer. The Chiefs dominated both games but the scoreboard showed a one score game late in the fourth quarter in the first match up where the Chiefs ran for 250 yards.

[NewEra]

2 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

LOL. Hardman was a first round pick? I honestly would have guessed street free agent signing post draft over a 1st round pick. The CEH pick has to be the worst though. I mean contrast it with Beane who is taking RB's just as good if not better than CEH and taking them two rounds later. And Beane gets talent at one of the five most crucial positions on a team in the first two rounds, DE and interior D-line.

I'm going to be nauseous and nervous as ever going into the Bills first play off game no matter who they play. Especially if they have the #1 seed and are coming off not playing meaningful football for two or three weeks.

I was wrong, my bad.  Hardman was a 2nd rd pick.  He was their first pick in the draft. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

18 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

No.  They got bored and sloppy.  They are very good.  That offense will adapt and they will get 11 wins.  Defense will improve a bit as well.  Without the turnovers I think our game is a lot closer.

What is bored lol a player is always playing for their next contract and has absolutely every reason to have a great game every week.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 10/13/2021 at 3:37 PM, Motor26 said:

The lack of a Watkins replacement is one of their biggest issues offensively. Those 3 can easily take over a game, but are having a hard time doing so because teams know they can just key on them. Their lack of a run game also hurts them. They are still a good team and will be a factor in the playoffs.

 

I dunno if I agree that Watkins was such a big loss for them.  He was their 5th receiver last season in terms of yards? The Chiefs ran a (1,1) set even more than we did last season (74%)  and when they didn't, were 17% (1,2). So they seldom have more than 3 WR on the field and sometimes only 2 WR.  I think Hardman is a good receiver - pro bowl his rookie year might mean something? ; given Watkins saw more snaps (almost 50%) and had less production (42 y/g), it wasn't illogical to think Hardman (38% snaps, 32 y/g) could take a bigger slice of the pie and maybe Robinson too (65% of the snaps last season)

 

I dunno, maybe our resident chiefs fans here @Zerovoltz or @beebe can give us the lo-down on Hardman and Robinson - are they used differently enough that they telegraph to other teams what's coming, when they're on the field?

 

It seems to me that the biggest issue for the Chiefs offensively, is their offensive line.  Their use of 3 WR (1,1) is down 10% and  2 TE (1,2) is up 6%, 2 backs and even 3 TE also up.  I don't know enough about the pass catching/ run blocking chops of their TE behind Kelce or or their RB, but often when one sees that, it's because the team is trying to back-fill for tenuous play at OT by bringing in another OLman or TE to block.  They're starting 3 rookies on OL.  As I told @Zerovoltz before the season pump the brakes on annointing the OL based on great preseason play.  Any time you're starting 3 rookies (and especially one entire side of the line), it may be great eventually but there are going to be problems over the short-term.  Marv Levy used to say only half tongue-in-cheek  "I hate rookies, they ALL make mistakes".

 

I frankly suspect that one reason the Bills put Williams at RG when they decided to start Brown at RT was to put a vet next to the rookie to "coach him up" and steady him.  I wonder a bit if the Chiefs would benefit by starting Duvernay-Tardiff between Humphries and Niang for the same reason - Trey Smith may be by far the better athlete and long term the better player, but maybe the inexperience on the R side of their line is an issue?  I don't know.  Then there's Orlando Brown, who seems to be struggling a bit with the transition from the kind of OL play he was expected to produce in Baltimore, vs the kind of OL play he's expected to produce in KC.

As a result, Mahomes seems jumpy to me.  He doesn't have the time he's used to having, or the help from the OL he's used to having when he extends the play.

 

As far as Edwards-Helaire - the guy gave them 62 ypg last season.  I "get it" people think drafting an RB at the very BOTTOM of the first round is overpaying, but he bumped them up from #20 to #12 in YPA and made teams respect that KC could run the ball.    He's had two 100 yd rush games this season, and he stepped up when asked last season (2 games well over 100 yds).  He's a good player,  I say it with regard to the Bills all the time, there's something like 50% odds of drafting a good NFL player even in the 1st round - not an all-star or all-world, just a good solid player.

 

The overarching problem for KC right now though is D.  They need to get Jones and Clark on the field at the same time and keep them there.

KC wagered that their big problem was OL, and went "all in" on upgrading the OL with perhaps not enough attention to D.