Alphas Roster Stab 2.0 (after first preseason game)

[JoPoy88]

On 8/16/2021 at 3:45 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am leading off with this tweet and quote of Frazier because this certainly does put a possible wrinkle into the DE depth chart scenario.  Pretty heavy endorsement from Frazier, although he isn't making the final call, but still with 6 guys ahead of him as an actual DE essentially in Hughes, Addison, AJE, Rousseau, Obada, and Boogie...this just got a little more interesting then I was expecting in regards to DJ.  

 

I just cant fathom the idea we would keep 7 DE's, so I think his roster slot is going to ultimately depend on one of Rousseau or Boogie really making a strong case to be a significant part of the DE rotation.  And Rousseau especially is off to a good start between camp and first preseason game for sure.  However, pass rush was the focus point this offseason, and Addison (the most talked about trade candidate) has gotten a lot of praise so far, including a big endorsement of them saying he has looked great and they expect big things from him this year.  And Obada has reportedly had one of the best camps of anyone on the roster too.  

 

But this is a strong endorsement for Johnson, and our coaches and FO usually mean what they say.  Its not Fraziers final call, but this certainly peaks my curiosity on ultimately what the DE depth chart will look like week 1.  Could they cut Obada?  Seems unlikely given all the buzz around him.  Could they trade either Addison or Hughes?  Maybe, but seems like they wouldn't want to given the SB aspirations and the need to pressure Mahomes to get there.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Knox - Hollister, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Hart, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Phillips

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 1.0 - ADDITIONS 

• OT:  Hart - I had us keeping 9 in the 1.0 version, but ultimately 2 of the 4 backups were Brown and Doyle, 2 rookies.  And it just doesn't seem to be our FO style to lean so heavily on a couple developmental rookies, and I think Hart will make the roster, even if we keep only 9 (where Doyle would be the odd man out if we keep 9).  I think they are very intrigued by the sheer size of Doyle and focused on improving our size upfront, so for this version I have both Hart and Doyle making the final 53.
  • NOTE:  I have Taiwan Jones essentially as my 54th player right now, so I could see us cutting Doyle (PS candidate if so) and keeping 9 potentially to open up a roster spot for Taiwan too.  
• TE:  Sweeney - I had him in until the very end of doing my last mock, but after seeing how much praise and love the staff and team have for him, and showing well in first preseason game in limited reps, I decided he gets kept.  

 

CHANGES from 1.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

• DT:  Butler - Numbers game, and honestly it could be either Butler, Phillips or Zimmer.  I agreed with a lot of people who commented and chimed in on the first attempt that it will be hard to keep 11 DL this year.   I feel like Butler might have more potential trade value in terms of maybe a late round pick, and Beane has proven to be able to get value out of guys like him in the past.  Being dinged up, not really standing out, etc I think makes him at this stage slightly more likely to be cut or traded than the others despite him being listed as Star's current back up on the first depth chart.  This is a hard one to call, feels almost like a toss up here between him, Phillips, and Zimmer.  
• CB:  Lewis - I feel like he has flashed some upside, so I had him on my original 1.0, but at this point, I just think they can't justify keeping him over some of the other guys they seem poised to keep.  And we only kept 8 DB's last year as well, so just can't validate him on here any longer.

 

NOTES:

TRADES:  I think a trade is a possibility at DE still even though I do not have it here.  Main reasons I do not have a trade here is simply because all of the DE's that could be a potential trade candidate have been receiving high praise from players, coaches, and Beane.  The most important focus of the off season was blatantly stated and shown in our actions of beefing up the pass rush.  If Rousseau keeps showing up like he has done so far, then trading one of the vets (most likely Addison I would guess) becomes more plausible. 

 

But its still a bit early to start trusting Rousseau and Boogie to be capable rotational guys to lean on in a season we are expecting to challenge the Chiefs for AFC Supremacy and a SB run.  McD and Beane have both shown to not want to rush rookies into too heavy a role early if possible too.

 

Maybe Obada could be traded (or cut) too, but he has also reportedly had one fo the best camps of anyone on the team this year.  Daryl Johnson despite the praise still didn't quite make my final 53, but clearly isn't out of the equation by any means.  Just think its going to take a surprise cut or some sort of trade at DE for him to truly have a path to the 53 as I don't see anyway they could ever keep 7 at DE.  

 

ST SPECIALISTS:  We have a couple of guys who have very strong ST value, and backup, very limited, or non existent roles at their respective positions.  And this is shaping up to be one of the more interesting battles...those ST guys fighting for roster spots.

• Making the final 53
  • LB Andre Smith - to me he has so far made a very strong case for the final 53 given he has shown quite well at LB and is a core ST contributor and currently have him making it.
  • WR Jake Kumerow - Camp darling coming into preseason full of buzz with a strong trend towards the final 53.  First preseason didn't present him a chance to show anything as a receiver per se, but my guess is his roster spot is going to be heavily evaluated by how he did on ST more than anything.   From all accounts I have seen, he has had as strong ST camp as well, which is why I think right now he is on the final 53 given potential value at his position as a WR.
  •  
• Not making the 53 currently:
  • RB Taiwan Jones - He is my next man up once a clear roster spot opens, he very much could be on the final 53, but right now, I think Kumerow ST ability is the main reason I don't yet have a spot for him.  But there are still multiple ways I can see him having a spot still despite not in my final 53 in version 2.0:
    • One:  They decide to keep him over a 10th OL (likely odd man out would be Doyle in that case)...I think this may be the most plausible road to the final 53 for Taiwan.
    • Two:  We move one of our DE's and keep only 5 at DE.  Although Daryl Johnson would also still be in the mix if that was the case too and will come down to who they prefer between the two of them.  
    • We keep only 5 LBs instead of 6.  We kept 6 last year, and two of them are also very good ST players as well, so I still have us keeping 6 LB's.
    • Three:  In a bit more of a surprise move, we keep only 5 WR's and Kumerow was the odd man out.  Just feel like Kumerow overall brings more right now than Taiwan who has no positional value at RB and only is a ST player.  So I still think keeping a 6th in Kumerow is more plausible.  
  • DE Daryrl Jonson - Already covered him earlier...he wont likely sniff many snaps this year at DE regardless of the depth chart, and he is definitely currently 7th on that depth chart, and 4th at his side of the ball.  So I have a hard time adding him into a final 53 without first seeing some sort of a trade or just flat out surprise cut at DE.  But ultimately, I think only ONE of Johnson or Taiwan (below) will be kept, and I think Taiwan has an easier path to the final roster given there are more roads for him to get there.  Daryl to me has only one shot, and that is moving on from one of the other DE's.

great stuff Alpha I like this one a lot. I do think they keep Taiwan guy seems untouchable given his ST skills. 

[colin]

good stuff alpha.  i think we drop an OL to keep jouhnson

[MasterStrategist]

On 8/16/2021 at 9:32 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

With only 3 preseason games and knowing the starters likely play 3 of the remaining 8 quarters of football this preseason, that first game was much more important to evaluate the other guys, especially deeper roster guys that would play heavy on ST.  So I dont think Jones sitting necessarily means anything as they aren't going to use him at RB, and they already know his full capability on ST.  

 

So IMHO, I think they sat Taiwan because there isn't anything they really need to evaluate on him and gave the reps to guys who need it and they need to see more of.  Taiwan isn't so valuable they need to sit him, I mean way more important players who are roster locks suited up for the game and played.  So I highly doubt it was to "protect" him more than it was to get more ST reps for guys they need to evaluate further.  

 

Just my 2 cents though

Great analysis Alpha.

 

Nothing against Jones, but I'm hoping they find another gunner/core ST guy who can contribute elsewhere on GameDay.

 

For those poster advocating for Jones, let me ask this question: Do you think we dress 4 RBs (5 if you count Gilliam as a FB) on Game Day?  

 

Because last year we didn't do that at all, and I'd prefer Motor, Moss, Brenda, and Gilliam be the active backs.

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said:

Great analysis Alpha.

 

Nothing against Jones, but I'm hoping they find another gunner/core ST guy who can contribute elsewhere on GameDay.

 

For those poster advocating for Jones, let me ask this question: Do you think we dress 4 RBs (5 if you count Gilliam as a FB) on Game Day?  

 

Because last year we didn't do that at all, and I'd prefer Motor, Moss, Brenda, and Gilliam be the active backs.

 

I would consider myself advocating for Jones I guess, although I more think I am just reflecting what I think the Bills will do - which is keep him on the roster. 

 

No I think they would not dress Brieda every game the same way they didn't always dress Yeldon.

[Coach Tuesday]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I would consider myself advocating for Jones I guess, although I more think I am just reflecting what I think the Bills will do - which is keep him on the roster. 

 

No I think they would not dress Brieda every game the same way they didn't always dress Yeldon.

Can’t Brieda return kicks?

[section122]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I would consider myself advocating for Jones I guess, although I more think I am just reflecting what I think the Bills will do - which is keep him on the roster. 

 

No I think they would not dress Brieda every game the same way they didn't always dress Yeldon.

 

Brieda is my nominee for the most over rated player on the Bills right now.  For some reason the board loves him and I just don't see it.  I agree he fills the Yeldon role and will be cut at the end of camp before being placed on the ps.

 

He is no threat to get poached and can be elevated if either of Moss/Motor get injured.

17 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Can’t Brieda return kicks?

 

He has 5 kr in his career all when he was a rookie.  He averaged 16.6 yards per return.  Only 1 return was longer than 20 yards and it went 28.  It appears he can, just not great at it.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

34 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

Brieda is my nominee for the most over rated player on the Bills right now.  For some reason the board loves him and I just don't see it.  I agree he fills the Yeldon role and will be cut at the end of camp before being placed on the ps.

 

He is no threat to get poached and can be elevated if either of Moss/Motor get injured.

 

He has 5 kr in his career all when he was a rookie.  He averaged 16.6 yards per return.  Only 1 return was longer than 20 yards and it went 28.  It appears he can, just not great at it.

 

If he doesn't make the practice squad, williams probably does.  Buffalo's starters are among the worst in the league by most pundits opinions, so why are teams jumping to steal their 3rd and 4th backs?  Yeldon is also available as well if they desperately needed a guy.  

Edited August 18, 2021 by dneveu

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Can’t Brieda return kicks?

 

He did a bit of return work early in his time in San Fran but I expect McKenzie to the returner here. 

34 minutes ago, section122 said:

 

Brieda is my nominee for the most over rated player on the Bills right now.  For some reason the board loves him and I just don't see it.  I agree he fills the Yeldon role and will be cut at the end of camp before being placed on the ps.

 

He is no threat to get poached and can be elevated if either of Moss/Motor get injured.

 

I think I agree with the overrated thing. I think he makes the team though. Yeldon always did. They like that vet 3rd back that they don't have to dress. Think it is a like for like. I do think he is an upgrade on Yeldon though. Man, Yeldon sucked.

[maddenboy]

On 8/16/2021 at 1:55 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Taiwan is true specialist adding very little offensively, but we have kept 4 RB's every year under this regime (well 5 if you count the 1 FB we seem to always keep too). 

Isnt Hollister supposed to be able to play from the backfield?  I mean, as long as we arent using FB much, and we dont seem to be using a FB to blow up a linebacker in the hole, then jettison the FB, cut Taiwan, and keep Doyle /Obada /any-breathing-CB

[Sherlock Holmes]

5 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Great analysis Alpha.

 

Nothing against Jones, but I'm hoping they find another gunner/core ST guy who can contribute elsewhere on GameDay.

 

For those poster advocating for Jones, let me ask this question: Do you think we dress 4 RBs (5 if you count Gilliam as a FB) on Game Day?  

 

Because last year we didn't do that at all, and I'd prefer Motor, Moss, Brenda, and Gilliam be the active backs.

Already have him... Kumerow

[CSBill]

17 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

great stuff Alpha I like this one a lot. I do think they keep Taiwan guy seems untouchable given his ST skills. 

I’m really hoping they let Jones walk. He is not worth losing a good young prospect over. His gunner role is limited and not hard to replace. 

[FilthyBeast]

Regarding Vernon Butler...deep down I also think he's going to make this roster despite being hurt and/or not doing much this preseason and camp so far.

 

And if that's the case it likely pushes one of the DE's off the team unless we can swing a decent trade.

 

However in a perfect world we trade Butler and can get some potential OL or DB depth in return.

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, section122 said:

 

Brieda is my nominee for the most over rated player on the Bills right now.  For some reason the board loves him and I just don't see it.  I agree he fills the Yeldon role and will be cut at the end of camp before being placed on the ps.

 

He is no threat to get poached and can be elevated if either of Moss/Motor get injured.

 

He has 5 kr in his career all when he was a rookie.  He averaged 16.6 yards per return.  Only 1 return was longer than 20 yards and it went 28.  It appears he can, just not great at it.

He certainly is over rated by some around here, but Beane and McD were very vocal about having someone who has that break away speed, so I expect him to make the final 53 mostly on that even though he had a pretty meh first preseason game.  His spot is by no means secured yet though, he certainly is someone who could get cut if he doesn’t show well the next two outings.

[JoPoy88]

6 hours ago, CSBill said:

I’m really hoping they let Jones walk. He is not worth losing a good young prospect over. His gunner role is limited and not hard to replace. 

pretty sure the coaching staff disagrees with you but hey, maybe you’re right. What “good young prospect” were you thinking of keeping over him?

23 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

great stuff Alpha I like this one a lot. I do think they keep Taiwan guy seems untouchable given his ST skills. 

really working out that new reaction emote huh @Sherlock Holmes? I swear i’ve never seen a contributor to this board more useless and mindless as you. Fire up the vomit.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

pretty sure the coaching staff disagrees with you but hey, maybe you’re right. What “good young prospect” were you thinking of keeping over him?

 

It is a change in mindset this fanbase needs to get used to IMO. For so many years we always wanted to prioritise tomorrow because tomorrow was hope. Draft picks, cap space, comp formula.... the hope of being better in the future. They need to get used to the fact that the future is here. The Bills are now in the window. They are in win now mode. When you get there cutting a top end gunner to keep a 5th or 6th round draft pick who isn't ready to help you win in 2021 is not a good move. The good news is after Friday shouldn't be too hard to sneak Doyle and Wildgoose onto the PS if they want to.

[JoPoy88]

11 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a change in mindset this fanbase needs to get used to IMO. For so many years we always wanted to prioritise tomorrow because tomorrow was hope. Draft picks, cap space, comp formula.... the hope of being better in the future. They need to get used to the fact that the future is here. The Bills are now in the window. They are in win now mode. When you get there cutting a top end gunner to keep a 5th or 6th round draft pick who isn't ready to help you win in 2021 is not a good move. The good news is after Friday shouldn't be too hard to sneak Doyle and Wildgoose onto the PS if they want to.

exactly. I get it, being a gunner isn’t sexy. But people banging the table for a guy that may get 2-4 snaps a game? Come on. I’d rather have the gunner

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, JoPoy88 said:

exactly. I get it, being a gunner isn’t sexy. But people banging the table for a guy that may get 2-4 snaps a game? Come on. I’d rather have the gunner

 

Hell the 10th OL and 6th corner they might be lucky to get 2-4 snaps a season. The question is basically do we want to keep guys who won't play and can't help us this year on the 53 at the expense of someone who can, or are we going to risk losing the chance to develop those guys given there is (albeit low) a chance a team picks them up when cut. I just think the risk / reward is in favour of keeping the gunner. 

 

In terms of Doyle he might make the 53 anyway because while I have thought throughout that the Bills top brass would want to keep a vet tackle rather than have two rookies for depth (especially with Dawkins's situation) I don't see any way they can keep Bobby Hart on the roster after his performance on Friday. Unless he is much better in game 2 and (if he makes it) 3 then I suspect he is a goner. 

[Coach Tuesday]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is a change in mindset this fanbase needs to get used to IMO. For so many years we always wanted to prioritise tomorrow because tomorrow was hope. Draft picks, cap space, comp formula.... the hope of being better in the future. They need to get used to the fact that the future is here. The Bills are now in the window. They are in win now mode. When you get there cutting a top end gunner to keep a 5th or 6th round draft pick who isn't ready to help you win in 2021 is not a good move. The good news is after Friday shouldn't be too hard to sneak Doyle and Wildgoose onto the PS if they want to.

Agree the future is now.  Disagree about the roster decision.  Trust your coaches to make Neal and Kumerow “top end gunners” and don’t ever cut bait on a premium position young prospect like DJ who’s still ascending.  You cannot cut Darryl Johnson to keep Taiwan Jones no matter what your 2021 goals are - it’s a mistake.  Don’t forget this team will have to start finding gems ASAP to balance out Allen’s impending cap hit.

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Agree the future is now.  Disagree about the roster decision.  Trust your coaches to make Neal and Kumerow “top end gunners” and don’t ever cut bait on a premium position young prospect like DJ who’s still ascending.  You cannot cut Darryl Johnson to keep Taiwan Jones no matter what your 2021 goals are - it’s a mistake.  Don’t forget this team will have to start finding gems ASAP to balance out Allen’s impending cap hit.

 

I like DJ, I'd like to find a roster spot for him but to me if you do it has to come from the defensive end room. You can't keep 7 defensive ends on the roster for my money. I think you can probably guess who I'd cut. 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

Lol at anyone who is seriously questioning who our backup return specialist would be in the event of a McKenzie injury.

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Agree the future is now.  Disagree about the roster decision.  Trust your coaches to make Neal and Kumerow “top end gunners” and don’t ever cut bait on a premium position young prospect like DJ who’s still ascending.  You cannot cut Darryl Johnson to keep Taiwan Jones no matter what your 2021 goals are - it’s a mistake.  Don’t forget this team will have to start finding gems ASAP to balance out Allen’s impending cap hit.

Amen!!!

3 hours ago, JoPoy88 said:

exactly. I get it, being a gunner isn’t sexy. But people banging the table for a guy that may get 2-4 snaps a game? Come on. I’d rather have the gunner

A good punter nullifies the need to have elite cover units, IMO. If Haack can directionally place his ball with purpose, I’d rather the up-and-coming pass rusher make the team.