Alphas Roster Stab 2.0 (after first preseason game)

[34-78-83]

1 hour ago, Coach Tuesday said:

I think Jones finally falls off the 53 this year and gets replaced by some combination of Kumerow, Neal and maybe Brieda.

I've been thinking similarly. But then I learned this evening that Jones didn't play in the Detroit game, which leads me to conclude that Jones is in the "let's not risk injury to this valued player" group, or at least the "we already know and are satisfied with what we have in him" group. Whichever group he's in, those are guys that are usually retained on to the 53.

[3rdand12]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Can't say I ever get too excited about this kind of stuff, but I appreciate the work others put in thinking about it. 

 

I'd just say that Frazier's comments about Johnson sounded to me like he is a lock.  We know they love him on special teams - I think because he's an unusual combination of size, speed, and determination for a special teams player.   But Frazier's comments also make it sound like they want him on the defensive line.   

 

Frazier's comments were about as direct praise for a backup as we've heard from any of these coaches since they've been in Buffalo.  

Cannot argue with Alpha's logic in regard to Hart. But i disagree.
I think Basham makes the case for redshirt. and if you can keep Doyle on the Team. ho would be my guess for Offense

 

Thanks Alpha for you wording your thoughts and clarifying the why's and wherefores

[3rdand12]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Can't say I ever get too excited about this kind of stuff, but I appreciate the work others put in thinking about it. 

 

I'd just say that Frazier's comments about Johnson sounded to me like he is a lock.  We know they love him on special teams - I think because he's an unusual combination of size, speed, and determination for a special teams player.   But Frazier's comments also make it sound like they want him on the defensive line.   

 

Frazier's comments were about as direct praise for a backup as we've heard from any of these coaches since they've been in Buffalo.  

Cannot argue with Alpha's logic in regard to Hart. But i disagree.
I think Basham makes the case for redshirt. and if you can keep Doyle on the Team. ho would be my guess for Offense. both would be great call ups once those nagging "injuries" fade away  lol

 

Thanks Alpha for you wording your thoughts and clarifying the why's and wherefores

[Alphadawg7]

32 minutes ago, 34-78-83 said:

I've been thinking similarly. But then I learned this evening that Jones didn't play in the Detroit game, which leads me to conclude that Jones is in the "let's not risk injury to this valued player" group, or at least the "we already know and are satisfied with what we have in him" group. Whichever group he's in, those are guys that are usually retained on to the 53.

 

With only 3 preseason games and knowing the starters likely play 3 of the remaining 8 quarters of football this preseason, that first game was much more important to evaluate the other guys, especially deeper roster guys that would play heavy on ST.  So I dont think Jones sitting necessarily means anything as they aren't going to use him at RB, and they already know his full capability on ST.  

 

So IMHO, I think they sat Taiwan because there isn't anything they really need to evaluate on him and gave the reps to guys who need it and they need to see more of.  Taiwan isn't so valuable they need to sit him, I mean way more important players who are roster locks suited up for the game and played.  So I highly doubt it was to "protect" him more than it was to get more ST reps for guys they need to evaluate further.  

 

Just my 2 cents though

[34-78-83]

54 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

With only 3 preseason games and knowing the starters likely play 3 of the remaining 8 quarters of football this preseason, that first game was much more important to evaluate the other guys, especially deeper roster guys that would play heavy on ST.  So I dont think Jones sitting necessarily means anything as they aren't going to use him at RB, and they already know his full capability on ST.  

 

So IMHO, I think they sat Taiwan because there isn't anything they really need to evaluate on him and gave the reps to guys who need it and they need to see more of.  Taiwan isn't so valuable they need to sit him, I mean way more important players who are roster locks suited up for the game and played.  So I highly doubt it was to "protect" him more than it was to get more ST reps for guys they need to evaluate further.  

 

Just my 2 cents though

Yep as mentioned I figured it was one of the 2 typical reasons between player value and knowing what they have in a player. With Jones he offers little outside of teams so…

[Sherlock Holmes]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am leading off with this tweet and quote of Frazier because this certainly does put a possible wrinkle into the DE depth chart scenario.  Pretty heavy endorsement from Frazier, although he isn't making the final call, but still with 6 guys ahead of him as an actual DE essentially in Hughes, Addison, AJE, Rousseau, Obada, and Boogie...this just got a little more interesting then I was expecting in regards to DJ.  

 

I just cant fathom the idea we would keep 7 DE's, so I think his roster slot is going to ultimately depend on one of Rousseau or Boogie really making a strong case to be a significant part of the DE rotation.  And Rousseau especially is off to a good start between camp and first preseason game for sure.  However, pass rush was the focus point this offseason, and Addison (the most talked about trade candidate) has gotten a lot of praise so far, including a big endorsement of them saying he has looked great and they expect big things from him this year.  And Obada has reportedly had one of the best camps of anyone on the roster too.  

 

But this is a strong endorsement for Johnson, and our coaches and FO usually mean what they say.  Its not Fraziers final call, but this certainly peaks my curiosity on ultimately what the DE depth chart will look like week 1.  Could they cut Obada?  Seems unlikely given all the buzz around him.  Could they trade either Addison or Hughes?  Maybe, but seems like they wouldn't want to given the SB aspirations and the need to pressure Mahomes to get there.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Knox - Hollister, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Hart, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Phillips

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 1.0 - ADDITIONS 

• OT:  Hart - I had us keeping 9 in the 1.0 version, but ultimately 2 of the 4 backups were Brown and Doyle, 2 rookies.  And it just doesn't seem to be our FO style to lean so heavily on a couple developmental rookies, and I think Hart will make the roster, even if we keep only 9 (where Doyle would be the odd man out if we keep 9).  I think they are very intrigued by the sheer size of Doyle and focused on improving our size upfront, so for this version I have both Hart and Doyle making the final 53.
  • NOTE:  I have Taiwan Jones essentially as my 54th player right now, so I could see us cutting Doyle (PS candidate if so) and keeping 9 potentially to open up a roster spot for Taiwan too.  
• TE:  Sweeney - I had him in until the very end of doing my last mock, but after seeing how much praise and love the staff and team have for him, and showing well in first preseason game in limited reps, I decided he gets kept.  

 

CHANGES from 1.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

• DT:  Butler - Numbers game, and honestly it could be either Butler, Phillips or Zimmer.  I agreed with a lot of people who commented and chimed in on the first attempt that it will be hard to keep 11 DL this year.   I feel like Butler might have more potential trade value in terms of maybe a late round pick, and Beane has proven to be able to get value out of guys like him in the past.  Being dinged up, not really standing out, etc I think makes him at this stage slightly more likely to be cut or traded than the others despite him being listed as Star's current back up on the first depth chart.  This is a hard one to call, feels almost like a toss up here between him, Phillips, and Zimmer.  
• CB:  Lewis - I feel like he has flashed some upside, so I had him on my original 1.0, but at this point, I just think they can't justify keeping him over some of the other guys they seem poised to keep.  And we only kept 8 DB's last year as well, so just can't validate him on here any longer.

 

NOTES:

TRADES:  I think a trade is a possibility at DE still even though I do not have it here.  Main reasons I do not have a trade here is simply because all of the DE's that could be a potential trade candidate have been receiving high praise from players, coaches, and Beane.  The most important focus of the off season was blatantly stated and shown in our actions of beefing up the pass rush.  If Rousseau keeps showing up like he has done so far, then trading one of the vets (most likely Addison I would guess) becomes more plausible. 

 

But its still a bit early to start trusting Rousseau and Boogie to be capable rotational guys to lean on in a season we are expecting to challenge the Chiefs for AFC Supremacy and a SB run.  McD and Beane have both shown to not want to rush rookies into too heavy a role early if possible too.

 

Maybe Obada could be traded (or cut) too, but he has also reportedly had one fo the best camps of anyone on the team this year.  Daryl Johnson despite the praise still didn't quite make my final 53, but clearly isn't out of the equation by any means.  Just think its going to take a surprise cut or some sort of trade at DE for him to truly have a path to the 53 as I don't see anyway they could ever keep 7 at DE.  

 

ST SPECIALISTS:  We have a couple of guys who have very strong ST value, and backup, very limited, or non existent roles at their respective positions.  And this is shaping up to be one of the more interesting battles...those ST guys fighting for roster spots.

• Making the final 53
  • LB Andre Smith - to me he has so far made a very strong case for the final 53 given he has shown quite well at LB and is a core ST contributor and currently have him making it.
  • WR Jake Kumerow - Camp darling coming into preseason full of buzz with a strong trend towards the final 53.  First preseason didn't present him a chance to show anything as a receiver per se, but my guess is his roster spot is going to be heavily evaluated by how he did on ST more than anything.   From all accounts I have seen, he has had as strong ST camp as well, which is why I think right now he is on the final 53 given potential value at his position as a WR.
  •  
• Not making the 53 currently:
  • RB Taiwan Jones - He is my next man up once a clear roster spot opens, he very much could be on the final 53, but right now, I think Kumerow ST ability is the main reason I don't yet have a spot for him.  But there are still multiple ways I can see him having a spot still despite not in my final 53 in version 2.0:
    • One:  They decide to keep him over a 10th OL (likely odd man out would be Doyle in that case)...I think this may be the most plausible road to the final 53 for Taiwan.
    • Two:  We move one of our DE's and keep only 5 at DE.  Although Daryl Johnson would also still be in the mix if that was the case too and will come down to who they prefer between the two of them.  
    • We keep only 5 LBs instead of 6.  We kept 6 last year, and two of them are also very good ST players as well, so I still have us keeping 6 LB's.
    • Three:  In a bit more of a surprise move, we keep only 5 WR's and Kumerow was the odd man out.  Just feel like Kumerow overall brings more right now than Taiwan who has no positional value at RB and only is a ST player.  So I still think keeping a 6th in Kumerow is more plausible.  
  • DE Daryrl Jonson - Already covered him earlier...he wont likely sniff many snaps this year at DE regardless of the depth chart, and he is definitely currently 7th on that depth chart, and 4th at his side of the ball.  So I have a hard time adding him into a final 53 without first seeing some sort of a trade or just flat out surprise cut at DE.  But ultimately, I think only ONE of Johnson or Taiwan (below) will be kept, and I think Taiwan has an easier path to the final roster given there are more roads for him to get there.  Daryl to me has only one shot, and that is moving on from one of the other DE's.

Your roster is about perfect, just instead of Dodson, Kuechly will be taking the roster spot.

[Kwai San]

14 hours ago, Niagara Bill said:

When MacKenzie gets hurt who returns punts and kick offs?

Consider Stevenson stays or Mac will never see an offensive play. Last year you had two capable returners.

 

Punts would be Poyer in an emergency no?  I remember him back there a few times over the years....

[Sherlock Holmes]

4 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 

Punts would be Poyer in an emergency no?  I remember him back there a few times over the years....

Should bring Ryan Switzer in for return duty.

[Coach Tuesday]

5 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 

Punts would be Poyer in an emergency no?  I remember him back there a few times over the years....

Hyde

[GunnerBill]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

With only 3 preseason games and knowing the starters likely play 3 of the remaining 8 quarters of football this preseason, that first game was much more important to evaluate the other guys, especially deeper roster guys that would play heavy on ST.  So I dont think Jones sitting necessarily means anything as they aren't going to use him at RB, and they already know his full capability on ST.  

 

So IMHO, I think they sat Taiwan because there isn't anything they really need to evaluate on him and gave the reps to guys who need it and they need to see more of.  Taiwan isn't so valuable they need to sit him, I mean way more important players who are roster locks suited up for the game and played.  So I highly doubt it was to "protect" him more than it was to get more ST reps for guys they need to evaluate further.  

 

Just my 2 cents though

 

I agree with this logic but that still leads one to the conclusion that it is as of now Jones's job. He isn't competing for it. They are evaluating others to see if one of them is capable of taking it from him but he is very much the man in possession. When you take that along with comments McDermott and Beane have both made about Jones in pressers I think it is very much more likely than not that he makes the roster. 

[DCbillsfan]

I understand the reasoning to keep Jones but really dislike the idea.  The roster is really flush and would hate to see a young guy with potential get cut.

 

I checked some stats from last year.  The Bills kicked off 101 times resulting in 71 touchbacks.  They punted 41 times with 18 inside the 20  (stats didn't indicate fair catches). 

 

Haacke appears to have better hang time than Bojo imo.  

 

The number of returns by opponents ( punts and kickoffs) per game doesn't justify a gunner only player imo.

 

Give me Siran Neal, Kumerow, and maybe another guy or two as gunners.  Better roster utilization imo.

Edited August 17, 2021 by DCbillsfan

[GunnerBill]

Joe B's Athletic piece again yesterday claimed the Bills save $3.3m releasing Butler. Spotrac has the saving at $0 and Overthecap has it at $1.3m. 

 

Does anyone know the truth??

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks for doing this! As I said in the previous version it all comes down to where you think the coaches will elect to sprinkle a few roster spots with three deep depth. This most recent version has them making that investment at RB, TE, DE and LB. Every other position is two deep. Again….very reasonable. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree with this logic but that still leads one to the conclusion that it is as of now Jones's job. He isn't competing for it. They are evaluating others to see if one of them is capable of taking it from him but he is very much the man in possession. When you take that along with comments McDermott and Beane have both made about Jones in pressers I think it is very much more likely than not that he makes the roster. 

I agree for the most part with that too, it’s his to lose.  I’m just projecting a final 53 in which he narrowly loses, but by no means guaranteeing it or anything.  Just really depends on the back end Depth chart battles at a couple other positions.  They have been as much, or even more, complimentary on Daryl Johnson too, but it’s gonna be hard to keep both without a surprise cut or some sort of trade IMO unless they want to run thin at another position to make it happen.

 

Main reason I don’t have him making it is because I think someone like Kumerow will fill his role and we just have too much youth at DE and OL making us maybe keep an extra guy or two there.

 

But like I said, Taiwan is essentially right there with Daryl Johnson as essentially the 54th guy in my roster projection, meaning if they keep one less anywhere I projected I think it would be to go to one of them.  

[ghostwriter]

I hope they keep Davis Webb. I see great value in him as our potential long term backup QB. Trubisky is a guy I was high on coming out of the draft and he is a guy I wanted us to sign this past offseason. I haven’t given up on him, but Webb looked better. It may not be a bad idea to keep three QBs. Webb is decent. In many ways he’s a poor man’s Josh Allen. I do suspect that Trubisky will rebound though. If not, at this point, Webb looks better.

 

As far as DL, I think you did a pretty good job, but I would like to see us keep Daryl Johnson. Physically he’s built a lot like Groot. Will he ever be a good starting lineman? No, but I do think he can be a 4-5 sack per year kind of rotational lineman and he is also a key contributor on STs. I think fans overlook that. Put Mario Addison on IR to start the year, maybe we can game the rules a bit and hang onto as many of our guys as we can.

 

I would also like to point out that there may be some surprise cuts. There’s no doubt in my mind that Buffalo may be eyeing cuts from around the league, mainly at RB, WR, TE and CB. I don’t think we’re done yet.

 

Maybe a few trades happen?

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

17 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Sweeney seems to have enough positive momentum and is certainly trending towards upwards, so I added him back in this round.  Hollister I think is a good player and should make the roster, so I think 3 TE's is slightly more plausible at this point than say 2 with Gilliam and emergency third.  But they do have tough decisions at other spots too, so its not a lock they keep 3 official TE's either.  But they have I believe kept a FB and 3 TE's the past years though.  

 

You could be right about Butler and Phillips, they are hard to predict right now for me, feels like one of them is likely going to be gone via cut or traded just on a numbers game.  I leaned Butler more just on the fact he has been hurt and I would think he would be an easier player to trade and get some value back on for Beane.  I would be a little more surprised to see Zimmer be the odd man out, I think he is a safe bet to make the final roster.

 

 

In my scenarios I listed for Taiwan to make the roster in my OP, that is the first and most plausible one.  So I would agree with you there and still think there is a good chance he makes the roster.  Right now, he and Daryl Johnson are essentially my "54th" player, so as soon as I can identify a sure fire place to shed one more player, I have him or Daryl Johnson making the team.  

 

The one caveat for me though is the only way its DJ is if they trade away a DE or make a surprise cut at DE.  I think if the roster spot comes from anywhere else, it would be to keep Taiwan as I just don't think there is anyway they would keep 7 DE's.  

 

The cap difference between butler and phillips is fairly negligible.  Phillips probably has more value with a cap hit of like a million, but while butler is listed as a 1T on the depth chart, he plays 3T as well, so position flex there is important if they're only carrying 4 DTs.  Obada also has flexed inside a bit in passing situations, so if he can play well on ST's i think that flexibility (as well as being a more productive pass rusher) would push DJ off the roster.  

 

I think Gilliam will likely be more active as a special teamer than Sweeney, who I think can probably hit the PS.  

[Coach Tuesday]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I agree for the most part with that too, it’s his to lose.  I’m just projecting a final 53 in which he narrowly loses, but by no means guaranteeing it or anything.  Just really depends on the back end Depth chart battles at a couple other positions.  They have been as much, or even more, complimentary on Daryl Johnson too, but it’s gonna be hard to keep both without a surprise cut or some sort of trade IMO unless they want to run thin at another position to make it happen.

 

Main reason I don’t have him making it is because I think someone like Kumerow will fill his role and we just have too much youth at DE and OL making us maybe keep an extra guy or two there.

 

But like I said, Taiwan is essentially right there with Daryl Johnson as essentially the 54th guy in my roster projection, meaning if they keep one less anywhere I projected I think it would be to go to one of them.  

 

You may well be right.  And it's hard to find fault overall with McBeane's approach.  But cutting a promising young pass rusher like DJ - whom they've invested in and developed - in order to keep Taiwan Jones, one of the most replaceable players at one of the most replaceable positions - would be a highly frustrating event.

[TroutDog]

Great job. I’m struggling with both lines and the WR’s. I can’t see them keeping only six of the latter: they are a passing team. 
 

I’m thinking Hodgin’s knee will land him on IR but also suspect another will be kept. As others have stated, I suspect at the cost of the OL. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

Assuming Dawkins makes it back and healthy for week 1, it wouldn't shock me to see Hart cut and brought back to the PS. I'm having Vlad Ducasse flashbacks with this guy. 

 

I think Jones makes it. For me that final RB spot comes down to Williams vs Breida..and Williams winning it wouldn't shock me.

 

Thinking back a few years when the Bills liked to use Shaq Lawson inside on passing downs...wonder if they see someone with that skill set to fill that role and keep fewer DTs on the active roster due to flexibility.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

30 minutes ago, TroutDog said:

Great job. I’m struggling with both lines and the WR’s. I can’t see them keeping only six of the latter: they are a passing team. 
 

I’m thinking Hodgin’s knee will land him on IR but also suspect another will be kept. As others have stated, I suspect at the cost of the OL. 

 

You can put 1 or 2 WRs on PS though and elevate if anyone is banged up.  They carried Duke and Kumerow last year.  Some combination of Stevenson, Hodgins, and Duke Williams.  Looking at depth charts across the league, there aren't a ton of depth spots that aren't already taken up by players drafted by those teams (https://www.ourlads.com/nfldepthcharts/depthchartpos/WR).  There were 36 WRs drafted in 2021, and another 35 in 2020 - not to mention UDFA's from the same timeframe. 

 

I'd be surprised if people are targeting all 3 of those players listed above, and if so, there will be others available.  If your 7th or 8th WR is playing significant snaps, thats a serious problem.