Alphas Roster Stab 2.0 (after first preseason game)

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, uninja said:

Seeing that list with only 5 CB's on the active roster fills me with existential dread.

 

I feel the same, but thats what they kept last year, mostly the same ones too and 3 safeties.  

Edited August 16, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Based on how many we have kept in the past at various positions, I think Taiwan would be kept before DJ if we kept one less OL though, just dont see us keeping 7 DE's.  I think the only path for DJ is a trade or surprise cut at DE personally, even though I like DJ and would be happy keeping him.  

 

And totally agree, if Doyle shows better than Hart, they very well could roll the dice on 2 rookies as our backup OT's.  

 

And yeah, I feel the same at DB.  Originally had us keeping 10 in my 1.0 version, but I was shocked to see we only kept 8 last year in total.  So I made some cuts there.  I think Wildgoose or Lewis could still potentially make the roster, or even Josh Thomas too.  But right now, I cut down in the defensive backfield to make room at some other spots, again based on what they have done in the past in terms of how many they kept at respective positions.  Maybe they keep 5 LB's instead of 6 to add one more DB, who knows.  I just know 2 of those backup LB's are heavy ST contributors and good ones.  

 

I think an extra CB is likely without a vet behind wallace.  Maybe drop sweeney to PS - if you have knox, hollister, gilliam?  I also see butler over Phillips.

[Alphadawg7]

6 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said:

When MacKenzie gets hurt who returns punts and kick offs?

Consider Stevenson stays or Mac will never see an offensive play. Last year you had two capable returners.

 

Well if its during a game, I am sure they would have someone else designated to return kicks in that situation and then would activate Stevenson from PS for the next week if McKenzie was to miss time.  Could be a DB or another WR.  Just needs someone who wont fumble the catch really.  I severely doubt they will keep Stevenson on the active 53 and suited up for gameday as a backup KR/PR.  

 

I do expect Stevenson to be on the PS.  But this regime has never kept 7 WR's, even when our group wasn't great and was easier to make the roster.  I dont see it happening now when we are already short on roster spots for guys who would at the very least play every ST play like say Taiwan or Daryl.  Stevenson only shot at the active 53 was if he flat out won the starting KR/PR duties, but he didn't seem to do much in camp at all and fell well behind McKenzie for that role according to reports.  So that seems unlikely.  

[GunnerBill]

I still think Taiwan Jones makes it. Based on that roster I'd say at the expense of an OL.

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, dneveu said:

 

I think an extra CB is likely without a vet behind wallace.  Maybe drop sweeney to PS - if you have knox, hollister, gilliam?  I also see butler over Phillips.

 

Sweeney seems to have enough positive momentum and is certainly trending towards upwards, so I added him back in this round.  Hollister I think is a good player and should make the roster, so I think 3 TE's is slightly more plausible at this point than say 2 with Gilliam and emergency third.  But they do have tough decisions at other spots too, so its not a lock they keep 3 official TE's either.  But they have I believe kept a FB and 3 TE's the past years though.  

 

You could be right about Butler and Phillips, they are hard to predict right now for me, feels like one of them is likely going to be gone via cut or traded just on a numbers game.  I leaned Butler more just on the fact he has been hurt and I would think he would be an easier player to trade and get some value back on for Beane.  I would be a little more surprised to see Zimmer be the odd man out, I think he is a safe bet to make the final roster.

 

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I still think Taiwan Jones makes it. Based on that roster I'd say at the expense of an OL.

 

In my scenarios I listed for Taiwan to make the roster in my OP, that is the first and most plausible one.  So I would agree with you there and still think there is a good chance he makes the roster.  Right now, he and Daryl Johnson are essentially my "54th" player, so as soon as I can identify a sure fire place to shed one more player, I have him or Daryl Johnson making the team.  

 

The one caveat for me though is the only way its DJ is if they trade away a DE or make a surprise cut at DE.  I think if the roster spot comes from anywhere else, it would be to keep Taiwan as I just don't think there is anyway they would keep 7 DE's.  

Edited August 16, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

In my scenarios I listed for Taiwan to make the roster in my OP, that is the first and most plausible one.  So I would agree with you there and still think there is a good chance he makes the roster.  Right now, he and Daryl Johnson are essentially my "54th" player, so as soon as I can identify a sure fire place to shed one more player, I have him or Daryl Johnson making the team.  

 

The one caveat for me though is the only way its DJ is if they trade away a DE or make a surprise cut at DE.  I think if the roster spot comes from anywhere else, it would be to keep Taiwan as I just don't think there is anyway they would keep 7 DE's.  

 

Yea I get that. Other than Jones for an OL I think the rest is pretty much spot on.

[Alphadawg7]

There was something interesting going on in the first preseason game where we had Obada and Boogie getting snaps at DT as well.  Frazier talked about their versatility and being able to do that potentially and seeing what it looks like.  At one point our DL was AJE, Boogie, Obada, and Rousseau on some snaps.  

 

Wonder if that means we keep even on less DT...could maybe both Phillips and Butler end up off the 53 if they feel they can get some backup support from some of the DE's?  

 

The DL situation is by far the most interesting thing still unresolved right now.  I think ultimately 10 will be kept, but the makeup of that 10 is quite interesting to figure out.  I mean we have 12 guys worthy of a roster spot along the DL where we have mostly kept 9 guys at previously.  

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

There was something interesting going on in the first preseason game where we had Obada and Boogie getting snaps at DT as well.  Frazier talked about their versatility and being able to do that potentially and seeing what it looks like.  At one point our DL was AJE, Boogie, Obada, and Rousseau on some snaps.  

 

Wonder if that means we keep even on less DT...could maybe both Phillips and Butler end up off the 53 if they feel they can get some backup support from some of the DE's?  

 

The DL situation is by far the most interesting thing still unresolved right now.  I think ultimately 10 will be kept, but the makeup of that 10 is quite interesting to figure out.  I mean we have 12 guys worthy of a roster spot along the DL where we have mostly kept 9 guys at previously.  

 

This was discussed elsewhere I suspect not. Playing ends inside on passing downs is one thing but for a team that likes to platoon its DL as much as the Bills do to go with only 3 designated interior players just feels unlikely to me. It would require a pretty big change in their approach to the DL rotation compared to the 4 years they have been here.

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

This was discussed elsewhere I suspect not. Playing ends inside on passing downs is one thing but for a team that likes to platoon its DL as much as the Bills do to go with only 3 designated interior players just feels unlikely to me. It would require a pretty big change in their approach to the DL rotation compared to the 4 years they have been here.

 

I definitely agree with you on that, and I would have a hard time seeing 7 and 3 respectively.  Personally I think its going to be 6 and 4 with DJ the odd man out.  If a trade happens at DE, then I can see DJ on the team.  

 

I still don't think we are moving anyone though.  Addison makes no financial sense, and they have had high praise for him.  Hughes is our best pass rusher and a team leader and major locker room guy.  Our 3 youngsters are locks, and Obada has arguably had one of the best camps of anyone on the team.  I just struggle to find a move here that lets us keep DJ.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

I think we see at least 2 trades, perhaps 3 w/ 2 on the DL and 1 on Offense.

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That was a typo mistake...thanks for catching that, I just fixed it as obviously Taron is the starter at NCB.  I originally didnt list a NCB specific position and just included them all under DB moniker.  Just cut and paste typo error

 

Hart isn't one I am married to, I think the 9th and 10 OL spots are very much up for grabs still to be honest.  

Hart should have been one of the first cuts......I am thinking he isnt gone yet because Dion has been out

[Niagara Bill]

45 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well if its during a game, I am sure they would have someone else designated to return kicks in that situation and then would activate Stevenson from PS for the next week if McKenzie was to miss time.  Could be a DB or another WR.  Just needs someone who wont fumble the catch really.  I severely doubt they will keep Stevenson on the active 53 and suited up for gameday as a backup KR/PR.  

 

I do expect Stevenson to be on the PS.  But this regime has never kept 7 WR's, even when our group wasn't great and was easier to make the roster.  I dont see it happening now when we are already short on roster spots for guys who would at the very least play every ST play like say Taiwan or Daryl.  Stevenson only shot at the active 53 was if he flat out won the starting KR/PR duties, but he didn't seem to do much in camp at all and fell well behind McKenzie for that role according to reports.  So that seems unlikely.  

Your first paragraph wants someone who will catch a punt.

Coach Phillips had a punt catcher named Watson. Maybe he is available. He got Bums son fired.🤣

[MJS]

59 minutes ago, Niagara Bill said:

When MacKenzie gets hurt who returns punts and kick offs?

Consider Stevenson stays or Mac will never see an offensive play. Last year you had two capable returners.

Probably Hyde. He has done it in the past. He isn't amazing, but he is sure handed.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Hart should have been one of the first cuts......I am thinking he isnt gone yet because Dion has been out

 

Very well could be a cut once Dion is back, fair point.  My main reason for him on this version is simply I am not sold they will be comfortable with 2 lower drafted rookies backing up both tackles this year, just hasn't been their style to lean on rookies that much.  Then again, Hart hasn't exactly "won" himself anything either lol.  So he is someone I can still seeing being cut if they feel good enough about Brown specifically. 

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Very well could be a cut once Dion is back, fair point.  My main reason for him on this version is simply I am not sold they will be comfortable with 2 lower drafted rookies backing up both tackles this year, just hasn't been their style to lean on rookies that much.  Then again, Hart hasn't exactly "won" himself anything either lol.  So he is someone I can still seeing being cut if they feel good enough about Brown specifically. 

I think Hart could literally get our 258 million dollar QB hurt......I dont even want to see him on the field with Fromm myself

[LyndonvilleBill]

I agree with Gunner and I think Jones makes it. Albeit, I cringe while saying that. But, cut Hart and add Jones (for now.😉)

 

At this point, I think your D lineup is right on. I do however think they add a CB to the roster. The question is at whose expense. Can't answer that today though.

 

Look forward to 3.0.👍

 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I am leading off with this tweet and quote of Frazier because this certainly does this put a possible wrinkle into the DE depth chart scenario.  Pretty heavy endorsement from Frazier, although he isn't making the final call, but still with 6 guys ahead of him as an actual DE essentially in Hughes, Addison, AJE, Rousseau, Obada, and Boogie...this just got a little more interesting then I was expecting in regards to DJ.  

 

I just cant fathom the idea we would keep 7 DE's, so I think his roster slot is going to ultimately depend on one of Rousseau or Boogie really making a strong case to be a significant part of the DE rotation.  And Rousseau especially is off to a good start between camp and first preseason game for sure.  However, pass rush was the focus point this offseason, and Addison (the most talked about trade candidate) has gotten a lot of praise so far, including a big endorsement of them saying he has looked great and they expect big things from him this year.  And Obada has reportedly had one of the best camps of anyone on the roster too.  

 

But this is a strong endorsement for Johnson, and our coaches and FO usually mean what they say.  Its not Fraziers final call, but this certainly peaks my curiosity on ultimately what the DE depth chart will look like week 1.  Could they cut Obada?  Seems unlikely given all the buzz around him.  Could they trade either Addison or Hughes?  Maybe, but seems like they wouldn't want to give the SB aspirations and the need to pressure Mahomes to get there.  

 

Offense:  Total 25

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Knox - Hollister, Sweeney

WR Diggs - Kumerow

WR Sanders - Davis

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Hart, Doyle

 

Defense:  Total 25

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star - Phillips

DT:  Oliver - Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Klien, Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Dodson, Matakevich

LCB:  Tre 

RCB:  Levi - Dane

NCB:  Taron - Neal

SS:  Poyer - Hamlin

FS:  Hyde - Johnson

 

Specialists:  Total 3

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

CHANGES from 1.0 - ADDITIONS 

• OT:  Hart - I had us keeping 9 in the 1.0 version, but ultimately 2 of the 4 backups were Brown and Doyle, 2 rookies.  And it just doesn't seem to be our FO style to lean so heavily on a couple developmental rookies, and I think Hart will make the roster, even if we keep only 9 (where Doyle would be the odd man out if we keep 9).  I think they are very intrigued by the sheer size of Doyle and focused on improving our size upfront, so for this version I have both Hart and Doyle making the final 53.
  • NOTE:  I have Taiwan Jones essentially as my 54th player right now, so I could see us cutting Doyle (PS candidate if so) and keeping 9 potentially to open up a roster spot for Taiwan too.  
• TE:  Sweeney - I had him in until the very end of doing my last mock, but after seeing how much praise and love the staff and team have for him, and showing well in first preseason game in limited reps, I decided he gets kept.  

 

CHANGES from 1.0 - SUBTRACTIONS

• DT:  Butler - Numbers game, and honestly it could be either Butler, Phillips or Zimmer.  I agreed with a lot of people who commented and chimed in on the first attempt that it will be hard to keep 11 DL this year.   I feel like Butler might have more potential trade value in terms of maybe a late round pick, and Beane has proven to be able to get value out of guys like him in the past.  Being dinged up, not really standing out, etc I think makes him at this stage slightly more likely to be cut or traded than the others despite him being listed as Star's current back up on the first depth chart.  This is a hard one to call, feels almost like a toss up here between him, Phillips, and Zimmer.  
• CB:  Lewis - I feel like he has flashed some upside, so I had him on my original 1.0, but at this point, I just think they can't justify keeping him over some of the other guys they seem poised to keep.  And we only kept 8 DB's last year as well, so just can't validate him on here any longer.

 

NOTES:

TRADES:  I think a trade is a possibility at DE still even though I do not have it here.  Main reasons I do not have a trade here is simply because all of the DE's that could be a potential trade candidate have been receiving high praise from players, coaches, and Beane.  The most important focus of the off season was blatantly stated and shown in our actions of beefing up the pass rush.  If Rousseau keeps showing up like he has done so far, then trading one of the vets (most likely Addison I would guess) becomes more plausible. 

 

But its still a bit early to start trusting Rousseau and Boogie to be capable rotational guys to lean on in a season we are expecting to challenge the Chiefs for AFC Supremacy and a SB run.  McD and Beane have both shown to not want to rush rookies into too heavy a role early if possible too.

 

Maybe Obada could be traded (or cut) too, but he has also reportedly had one fo the best camps of anyone on the team this year.  Daryl Johnson despite the praise still didn't quite make my final 53, but clearly isn't out of the equation by any means.  Just think its going to take a surprise cut or some sort of trade at DE for him to truly have a path to the 53 as I don't see anyway they could ever keep 7 at DE.  

 

ST SPECIALISTS:  We have a couple of guys who have very strong ST value, and backup, very limited, or non existent roles at their respective positions.  And this is shaping up to be one of the more interesting battles...those ST guys fighting for roster spots.

• Making the final 53
  • LB Andre Smith - to me he has so far made a very strong case for the final 53 given he has shown quite well at LB and is a core ST contributor and currently have him making it.
  • WR Jake Kumerow - Camp darling coming into preseason full of buzz with a strong trend towards the final 53.  First preseason didn't present him a chance to show anything as a receiver per se, but my guess is his roster spot is going to be heavily evaluated by how he did on ST more than anything.   From all accounts I have seen, he has had as strong ST camp as well, which is why I think right now he is on the final 53 given potential value at his position as a WR.
  •  
• Not making the 53 currently:
  • RB Taiwan Jones - He is my next man up once a clear roster spot opens, he very much could be on the final 53, but right now, I think Kumerow ST ability is the main reason I don't yet have a spot for him.  But there are still multiple ways I can see him having a spot still despite not in my final 53 in version 2.0:
    • One:  They decide to keep him over a 10th OL (likely odd man out would be Doyle in that case)...I think this may be the most plausible road to the final 53 for Taiwan.
    • Two:  We move one of our DE's and keep only 5 at DE.  Although Daryl Johnson would also still be in the mix if that was the case too and will come down to who they prefer between the two of them.  
    • We keep only 5 LBs instead of 6.  We kept 6 last year, and two of them are also very good ST players as well, so I still have us keeping 6 LB's.
    • Three:  In a bit more of a surprise move, we keep only 5 WR's and Kumerow was the odd man out.  Just feel like Kumerow overall brings more right now than Taiwan who has no positional value at RB and only is a ST player.  So I still think keeping a 6th in Kumerow is more plausible.  
  • DE Daryrl Jonson - Already covered him earlier...he wont likely sniff many snaps this year at DE regardless of the depth chart, and he is definitely currently 7th on that depth chart, and 4th at his side of the ball.  So I have a hard time adding him into a final 53 without first seeing some sort of a trade or just flat out surprise cut at DE.  But ultimately, I think only ONE of Johnson or Taiwan (below) will be kept, and I think Taiwan has an easier path to the final roster given there are more roads for him to get there.  Daryl to me has only one shot, and that is moving on from one of the other DE's.

 

I tend to agree with most of your comments  I think Jones and Zimmer are heading down the wrong side of the roster bubble, in Jones case there are others that can fill his role, but also provide other playing time opportunities too.

 

For the O line, I think in the next 2 to 3 weeks Doyle will somehow get hurt and end up on IR.  (As we speak Beane has a call into Tonya Harding to discuss.)  At that point a combination of spare DL and WR are traded for good backup tackle and Hart is then also gone.  Completely agree with concept that Beane isn't going to want to rookies as the only backup tackles on the team

 

Take away the tenth O lineman, could bring Jones, another WR back instead.

 

Think with 10 DL, not sure six LB's are needed.

 

Not sold on Hamlin making the roster either, think it's the other guy, can't recall his name makes the roster instead.

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

Not sold on Hamlin making the roster either, think it's the other guy, can't recall his name makes the roster instead.

 

I think you are referring to Josh Thomas maybe?  They said some nice things about them too, so he seems to be in the mix as well.

[Coach Tuesday]

I think Jones finally falls off the 53 this year and gets replaced by some combination of Kumerow, Neal and maybe Brieda.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think you are referring to Josh Thomas maybe?  They said some nice things about them too, so he seems to be in the mix as well.

 

Yes! that was the name I was trying to recall