Early look at returns from first round Edge Rusher selections

[IgotBILLStopay]

26 minutes ago, Niagara Dude said:

Right that sack where the QB looked more like he fell on his own tells us this was a great pick,  i will be happy to be a more accurate assessment after he has played at least 4 regular season games and bullets are flying for real.  You guys seem to believe the more great things you post and say the better the team will be

 

 

Plenty of questions on this defense and pass rush is by far the biggest one

oh my! Exaggerating the rose tint  to make the point - what would you rather have?

 

a. A rookie edge rusher out of Miami who basically sat out the last 10 TC practices and preseason week 1 due to injury (mind you injury was a red flag for him coming into the draft)

b. A rookie edge rusher out of Miami who has received glowing reports all through minicamp and TC (going against Brown and Williams at Tackle) and actually had three pressures and a sack in 11 snaps in the preseason ( sack was after beating a top 10 pick at Tackle)

 

The first was taken at #18 and the second at #30 by two competing AFC East front offices after significant due diligence. Which front office and fan base should be more pleased? I don’t disagree that it is still early but enough with the curmudgeonly thinking already! FYI - The seventeen year playoff drought ended 4 years ago.

[TPS]

14 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I think this is a serious question - so I will attempt to clarify.

 

I am averaging information from various sources regarding performance / potential of these rookies. I have followed the TC reports (and minicamp info) of these six on a daily basis - but just summarized them in a few lines each for the post. I have also watched every preseason snap for those that played. 
 

you are right that three of the rookies did not play in the preseason. But a. I have also been following them through TC and, b. availability is the first ability and two of them could not suit up due to injury, which is a knock on them. We all remember what happened with Shaq Lawson as a rookie, no? Turner was held out deliberately despite an impressive second week of TC ( he had two sacks in just one Saints practice against Hil / Winston) and my ranking reflects that - he is not being penalized for not playing.
 

Diminishing returns is an economic concept and Gunner was disputing it by talking about sample size which is a stats issue and can’t speak to the validity of diminishing returns of information. I don’t think there is any dispute at all on the small sample size.  I already acknowledged the sample size issue in the title.
 

The ranking is no doubt a subjective opinion, can it be anything else at this point?

He was disputing your contention that the earliest information has the highest marginal contribution.  His argument (and I agree with this) is that there is much more information to be gained "incrementally" throughout a season.  That is, it's much more likely that there are "increasing returns" to information, which eventually diminishes as the season progresses (The second derivative is positive up to a point in the season, then turns negative).  

 

 

[ColoradoBills]

Personally I think all this ranking and list stuff is not worth spit but to be honest isn't that what everyone is already doing with the rookie QBs.

So why not with pass rushers? 

 

For my money the only thing important to rookies of every position is the next play not the last.

[Utah John]

I feel like the Bills bought three lottery tickets -- Epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham -- figuring at least one of them would turn into a star player.  All three have some talent and could develop, but that's true of a lot of players who never shine. 

 

I'm hoping of course that all three turn out great. 

[IgotBILLStopay]

47 minutes ago, TPS said:

He was disputing your contention that the earliest information has the highest marginal contribution.  His argument (and I agree with this) is that there is much more information to be gained "incrementally" throughout a season.  That is, it's much more likely that there are "increasing returns" to information, which eventually diminishes as the season progresses (The second derivative is positive up to a point in the season, then turns negative).  

 

 

Lol that rephrasing tells me you have understood my point. There is a relevance reliability tradeoff. The more info you get, the more reliable it is. But as we get more info, it gets incrementally staler (diminishing returns).  The earliest info is the most relevant - there is a reason we all follow rookies in the summer league or preseason - it is the freshest most relevant piece of news.

 

When you rephrase it as marginal contribution, the net effect is a function of both relevance and reliability and hence obviously unclear. I don’t think I have ever disputed that.

 

[EmotionallyUnstable]

3 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Can we do Tight Ends next?

Be careful what you sarcastically wish for! 
 

Actually this is easy. Considering ALL the 1st round TEs drafted in 2021, prepare yourself for their future being told via the first week of preseason. 
 

#1 Kyle Pitts, taken 4th overall, DNP in the Falcons first preseason game. 
 

That’s it. That’s all the tight ends in round 1. 
 

good luck sorting through that 

Edited August 15, 2021 by EmotionallyUnstable

[TPS]

57 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

Lol that rephrasing tells me you have understood my point. There is a relevance reliability tradeoff. The more info you get, the more reliable it is. But as we get more info, it gets incrementally staler (diminishing returns).  The earliest info is the most relevant - there is a reason we all follow rookies in the summer league or preseason - it is the freshest most relevant piece of news.

 

When you rephrase it as marginal contribution, the net effect is a function of both relevance and reliability and hence obviously unclear. I don’t think I have ever disputed that.

 

Do You really believe preseason information is more relevant than the actual season?  If Preseason games and camp will tell us how good someone will be among his peers, then Duke Williams should be Hall of Famer!  lol

 

 

[sirebors]

14 hours ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I think this is a serious question - so I will attempt to clarify.

 

I am averaging information from various sources regarding performance / potential of these rookies. I have followed the TC reports (and minicamp info) of these six on a daily basis - but just summarized them in a few lines each for the post. I have also watched every preseason snap for those that played. 
 

you are right that three of the rookies did not play in the preseason. But a. I have also been following them through TC and, b. availability is the first ability and two of them could not suit up due to injury, which is a knock on them. We all remember what happened with Shaq Lawson as a rookie, no? Turner was held out deliberately despite an impressive second week of TC ( he had two sacks in just one Saints practice against Hil / Winston) and my ranking reflects that - he is not being penalized for not playing.
 

Diminishing returns is an economic concept and Gunner was disputing it by talking about sample size which is a stats issue and can’t speak to the validity of diminishing returns of information. I don’t think there is any dispute at all on the small sample size.  I already acknowledged the sample size issue in the title.
 

The ranking is no doubt a subjective opinion, can it be anything else at this point?

I think I got it after the first 5 times. Who cares? I like and appreciate the evaluations but don't need endless explanations on how you justify them. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

I thought we were going to look at like, previous 1st rounder edge rushers and see their impacts in 1st year. 

 

Taking out guys taken in the first 3-5 picks (players expected to start day 1)

 

Last year Chiasson - no impact on a terrible team, while playing about half the snaps.  Not sure on how he was entirely used though.

2019 - Sweat and Burns - impactful players in rotation.  Gary and Collier, no impact rookie seasons.  

2018 - Davenport - relatively impactful in rotation.  

2017 - Barnett - impactful player in rotation.  Mckinley, Charlton, Harris, no impact.  

 

I do think the impact is definitely dependant on snaps.  Epenesa flashed here and there and only played about 27% of snaps.  Hopefully with the extra length Rouss can replicate some of that athleticism that made sweat and burns dynamic rookies.

[Matt_In_NH]

what were those other teams thinking?

[CSBill]

Well, despite all the sarcasm (something new here, I must say), this make me feel good in mid-August.

[The Red King]

People don't like being wrong.  Some people have dug in on their opinions on draft picks and resent any suggestion they might be wrong.  Hell a few people still grouse about Allen.  If you say something nice about our prospects, expect blowback from people who are already commited to them being mistakes.

 

If I can make a suggestion to the OP, the only part of your post I'd say was a bit much was the suggestion that McD has to be happy, as it's been rightly pointed out that while you can evaluate, it's way too early to come to conclusions.

[sunshynman]

On 8/15/2021 at 11:30 AM, HOUSE said:

Can we do Tight Ends next?

Why did we trade for Ertz finally?

[CorkScrewHill]

This post represents what is good and what is bad about this site. The good: The OP looks into all the 1st round DEs and looks at how they have done so far. A nice fact-based, to the best of their knowledge representation, of how they are doing to date. The bad: people take his words out of context and make it like they are ready to crown the guy. He basically stated that Beane has to feel good about the choice.. I am certain Beane does. Just like when you work on a project and the start looks good .. it doesn't guarantee that the project will turn out how you hoped but it is certainly better than the alternative i.e., that it is way off target. The OP @IgotBILLStopay did not say we should get a bust started in Canton, he didn't say future All-Pro, or defensive rookie of the year, or even that it is certain he will be an adequate DE in the NFL.  The OP spent time that I do not need to spend now to pull together the info. Then people say he is overreacting by overreacting to what he said .. the irony is amazing. Thank you @IgotBILLStopay .. good post!

[IgotBILLStopay]

On 8/15/2021 at 9:51 AM, TPS said:

I wonder how the 2018 QB class were ranked after their first preseason games....?

Allen had arguably the most hype. I know I was pumped to see him and was comparing him favorably to Darrold Rosen and Mayfield (I was asleep on Jackson though) even then

 

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/8/23/17772724/josh-allen-buffalo-bills-nfl-preseason-hype

[BigAl2526]

Beane does not "overthink" the draft like some GMs.  He gives a lot of weight to  college production, along with football character and athleticism.  Rousseau didn't play in 2020, but was outstanding in 2019.  A lot of people tried to second guess that production.  He got sacks while playing inside.  He cleaned up after other players did the dirty work.  Yeah, but one way or another he figured out how to get to the QB.

[BillsShredder83]

On 8/15/2021 at 10:14 AM, IgotBILLStopay said:

Kwity Paye, Jaelan Phillips, Payton Turner, Greg Rousseau, Osage Oweh and Joe Tryon we’re the six first round Edge Rushers taken.

#18 Jaelan Phillips started promisingly but then has had a very poor camp overall due to injury. I felt him missing his medical due to ‘COVID’ in April itself was a red flag. Didn’t play preseason game 1.

#21 Keith Paye started slow in TC, then reports said he improved a lot but is now out with an ankle injury (which maybe minor). Didn’t play week 1 preseason.

#28 Payton Turner was very raw when camp started but had started looking better as camp progressed. Was deliberately held out of preseason game 1 (which tells me he is doing really well).

#30 Greg Rousseau came out of the gate strong. Has not had a single negative report and several positive minicamp and TC reports. Only one (of these six) to register a sack in preseason week 1 (that too against Penei Sewell - top lineman from 2021 draft)

#31 Odafe Oweh looked overwhelmed in week 1of TC - but was the ‘star’ of week 2. DC Martindale has been singing his praises the past week. Played decently preseason week 1 but went sackless - which is important since he had notoriety as a first rounder who had zero sacks in an entire (shortened) college season.

#32 Joe Tryon like Rousseau sat out 2020. He missed rookie minicamp due to a minor knee procedure - but has been turning heads every day in camp. He shda maybe had a sack in preseason game 1 but was called for helmet to helmet. Arians raving about him. 
 

Bottomline Rankings post preseason game 1:

 

1. Rousseau

2. Tryon

3. Turner

4. Oweh

5. Paye

6. Phillips

 

Beane can feel good about what he did last April.

Good post man. I literally cant think of any reason to poo on this post.  You gave a summary that probably 95% of posters didn't know. You invested time into watching tape and keeping up on reports.

 

Nowhere did you say -based on what I saw, 5 years from now this is how this draft will be viewed.

 

A million people did the exact same thing with the rookie qbs and have a little order of who they think played better than the rest, same thing here. I def would love to see this thread get updated as the season goes on. Good work, I enjoyed it 👍 

[Mark Vader]

On 8/15/2021 at 7:26 AM, Boxcar said:

Wasn't way, way too early for people to whine about the pick as soon as it happened.

I wasn't whining.....See  

 

Edited August 17, 2021 by Mark Vader

[IgotBILLStopay]

Bump. Rankings updated after preseason week 2 (see OP).

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

I’m certain the same folks who preach “Don’t overreact to bad preseason performances” are the first to overreact to good ones