Alphas first stab at the 53 as we approach first preseason game

[Alphadawg7]

11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You literally wrote him off the roster by having him as a cut. And while I point out that was extremely unlikely in the first place and that tonight points to it being even more unlikely than that - you maintain that it means nothing.

 

Hell, even when Antonio Williams was dinged up - they still opted to keep him on the bench and then put Williams back in later when he was cleared. If he were a fringe player on the roster or even in a battle to keep his job, they wouldn't have done that.

 

You can hedge your bet by saying "he might still make it". But you don't seem to want to hear the logic pointing to that already being the case and continue to point to reasons why he could/should be cut. I don't know any other way of reading it than you're personally writing him off the roster.

 

And I hate to break it to you, but McDermott never cut him. He's also not been cut multiple times in his career. He was cut once in 2017 after 6 seasons with the Raiders, most likely for cap reasons while being on the final year of a 3 year contract extension there.

 

He was a Free Agent after the 2018 season with us and chose Houston in FA because they offered him more. And after a year of subpar Special Teams, McDermott and Beane realized their mistake and brought him back for last year and this year. 

Man, you related to him or what?  Why is this such a hot button for you?  You obviously didn’t read my other comments in the thread.  I said MULTIPLE times he very well could make the roster.  

 

I simply disagree he is a lock this year and that’s it, you’re grossly over exaggerating my stance to try and validate your lock status argument.  
 

I mean don’t you think you are over reacting to what was clearly labeled a first attempt prior to preseason to predict a roster?  You’re somehow taking a first draft guess of a 53 man roster, prior to preseason mind you, as some sort of proclamation or guarantee which is mind blowing because nothing I have said in this thread is remotely close to indicating that about anyone I listed as making it or that I left off.  Hell I even made an edit like a day later after more info came out about Knox from McD that was endorsement and said the follow up comments from people swayed me to think it will be 10 at DT too.  
 

And for a guy being so untouchable for McD and Beane, they didn’t keep him during his first stint here when this roster was easier to make.  

Edited August 14, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[BillsFanForever19]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Man, you related to him or what?  Why is this such a hot button for you?  You obviously didn’t read my other comments in the thread.  I said MULTIPLE times he very well could make the roster.  

 

I simply disagree he is a lock this year and that’s it, you’re grossly over exaggerating my stance to try and validate your lock status argument.  
 

I mean don’t you think you are over reacting to what was clearly labeled a first attempt prior to preseason to predict a roster?  You’re somehow taking a first draft guess of a 53 man roster, prior to preseason mind you, as some sort of proclamation or guarantee which is mind blowing because nothing I have said in this thread is remotely close to indicating that about anyone I listed as making it or that I left off.  Hell I even made an edit like a day later after more info came out about Knox from McD that was endorsement and said the follow up comments from people swayed me to think it will be 10 at DT too.  
 

And for a guy being so untouchable for McD and Beane, they didn’t keep him during his first stint here when this roster was easier to make.  

 

Apparently, you're not reading my posts. As stated in my previous post, they have never cut him or even let him go without a contract offer. They made an offer to him after his one year deal in 2018 during the 2019 FA process. Houston offered more money and more opportunities as a RB in a less crowded backfield. So he chose to go there instead for a season. 

 

And this goes to the crux of our back and forth. You make points to argue against what I say and I simply reply back with why I don't agree with the assessment or in this case, point out the parts that are simply incorrect. That's... kinda how message boards work? 

 

This last post is a prime example of what I've been saying. You spend most of the post taking a stance of me "overreacting" and spend time defending yourself that you never said Taiwan couldn't make the team. Yet you couldn't help but end the post with a (incorrect) negative on him. 

[LyndonvilleBill]

I guess I am part of the minority here. I am with you Alpha. I don't think he's a lock either at this point. Not saying he won't make the roster but, I believe I saw, 6 tackles during regular season, 0 (zero) offensive help and 47% of special teams snaps? With roster spots being so limited, I wonder if Brieda or Kumerow could pick those snaps up and allow maybe an extra receiver to make the roster. I guess we will all find out soon enough.

[Alphadawg7]

11 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Apparently, you're not reading my posts. As stated in my previous post, they have never cut him or even let him go without a contract offer. They made an offer to him after his one year deal in 2018 during the 2019 FA process. Houston offered more money and more opportunities as a RB in a less crowded backfield. So he chose to go there instead for a season. 

 

And this goes to the crux of our back and forth. You make points to argue against what I say and I simply reply back with why I don't agree with the assessment or in this case, point out the parts that are simply incorrect. That's... kinda how message boards work? 

 

This last post is a prime example of what I've been saying. You spend most of the post taking a stance of me "overreacting" and spend time defending yourself that you never said Taiwan couldn't make the team. Yet you couldn't help but end the post with a (incorrect) negative on him. 

I have no idea what you are even talking about anymore.  
 

I don’t even have anything against him.  I think he absolutely does have a chance to make the roster, but heaven forbid I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion and in my first pass I didn’t have him making it over some of our other prospects at other positions.

 

But you have for whatever reason taken some huge exception to the fact I had the audacity to leave him off my first draft of a roster despite repeatedly saying he absolutely could make the roster.  
 

And I didn’t take a jab at him, I took a jab at your over the top he’s untouchable stance by pointing out he’s clearly not if he’s changed teams so many times in his career, regardless as to why he changed teams.  

Edited August 15, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[ColoradoBills]

Well Taiwan Jones didn't play last night and the punt coverage team played extremely well.

1.8 yards a return on 4 attempts.

 

So there is that for what it's worth.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, LyndonvilleBill said:

I guess I am part of the minority here. I am with you Alpha. I don't think he's a lock either at this point. Not saying he won't make the roster but, I believe I saw, 6 tackles during regular season, 0 (zero) offensive help and 47% of special teams snaps? With roster spots being so limited, I wonder if Brieda or Kumerow could pick those snaps up and allow maybe an extra receiver to make the roster. I guess we will all find out soon enough.

 

They have looked at both in that role in camp and then decided they didn't need to risk Jones in a pre-season game. While he isn't a lock at this point it would be a surprise based on what McDermott and Beane have said and done this offseason if Jones isn't on the team.

[Doc]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Well Taiwan Jones didn't play last night and the punt coverage team played extremely well.

1.8 yards a return on 4 attempts.

 

So there is that for what it's worth.

 

I'm worried that Taiwan Jones will be looking to break Matt Haack's leg.

[ColoradoBills]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

I'm worried that Taiwan Jones will be looking to break Matt Haack's leg.

 

LOL you just may be right!

I just re-watched the game and with Haack's Haangtime there was a crowd around their PR every time.

 

[Alphadawg7]

After the first preseason game I feel like of the possible scenarios are less likely now.   Both of these were already reflected in my initial 53 projection, and I think the first preseason game may have just confirmed them.

 

1.  The odds we keep 7 WRs went way down even further.  I already didn’t think we would keep 7, but after the game and there only being 2 preseason games left, the odds of us keeping 7 got even smaller.    

 

2.  Antonio Williams making the final 53 seems even less likely now with him not doing anything significant and fumbling once.  He was a guy I didn’t have making the roster already coming out of camp because he was still stuck behind Singletary, Moss and Brieda.  But he was a guy I was intrigued by and looking forward to seeing play this preseason in hopes he would flash that potential again.  

 

But with the first game over and only 2 left, I think the path to make 53 is just to steep a hill to climb now, especially since Singletary looked great and Moss and Brieda had a strong camp too according to reports.  

[machine gun kelly]

On 8/10/2021 at 5:44 PM, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is my first attempt at the final 53 and also who I think starts come week 1 based on camp reports ahead of our first preseason game.  Obviously some of these are certain locks, and others are fluid and preseason could change some of them:  

 

Preseason is going to be quite important I think this year to the final makeup on this roster at several key positions.  And not just for backup roles, quite a few starting roles up for grabs too as we all know.  I would say RB, TE, DE, CB2, and KR (although I think McKinzie is now a pretty strong favorite for KR/PR duties) are all spots where not only is depth chart uncertain, but the starting spot is certainly in play as well.  

 

My first stab at the final 53 (starters listed in bold first, followed by backups)

 

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

**UPDATED** TE Knox - Hollister

WRS Diggs and Sanders - Davis, Kumerow

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle 

 

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star & Oliver - Phillips, Butler, Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Matakevich

SLB:  Klien - Adams

LCB:  Tre - Taron

RCB:  Levi - Dane, Lewis

SS:  Poyer - Neal

FS:  Hyde - Johnson, Hamlin

 

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

 

NOTES ON ABOVE:

As you can see I have AJE beating out Addison, Singletary staying atop the depth chart, Levi starting, and Knox keeping his starter status ***UPDATED***

 

At CB, I think Dane is still in the mix, but I think Levi has got a sizable enough lead that its probable he holds down the starting job week 1.  

 

With AJE, I think they want to get some of that youth on the field and AJE has apparently been tearing up camp.  With Addison being older, rotating him in to keep him fresh makes a lot of sense even though Addison has been getting his own share of praise too and still could start come week 1.  AJE and Hughes is a nice balance of vet and youth, with a nice combo of vet and youth rotating through as well.  

 

At RB, I think all 3 of them have had good moments in camp, but Moss is dinged up again and coming off an injury.  Singletary has been looking good in camp, so I think he holds onto his starting spot to start the season with Brieda being more used as a change of pace back.  Honestly, I think our run game is going to be a lot like SF had when Brieda was there, any given week one of them can be the lead dog and have a big game.  I think we will have a good overall ground game, with no one guy dominating the season touches as they ride the hot hand or game plan each week.  

 

***UPDATED*** With Hollister and Knox, the guy I want to win the job is Knox just based on the matchup problems his physical ability can create.  Originally I speculated Hollister was going to emerge as the starter just based on how critical some of the reporters covering camp had been on Knox thus far.  But with this report today 8/11, McDermott is giving Knox a lot of praise and saying he has had a strong camp overall.  So given this story today, I have updated this to be Knox winning the job based on McD's praise as I trust his opinion a lot more than others as he has shown to pretty much always mean what he says in his time here.  

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/11/sean-mcdermott-dawson-knox-really-good-training-camp-buffalo-bills/

 

Speaking of trades, after the draft I have previously speculated, like many, that Addison (or maybe Hughes, but less likely) could be someone who gets traded if AJE, Obada, and the rookies keep impressing.  And while I won't rule it out, the more I think about it, the less likely I think it happens.  If I had to guess right now, I think we keep all 6 DE's and constantly rotate fresh legs to help wreak havoc in a year we are expected to challenge for a SB.  ESPECIALLY after how they saw the Bucs get to Mahomes and beat the Chiefs in the SB.  And right now, it appears we have 4 starting quality DE's and 2 high quality rookies for our future.  Thats a lot of pass rush fire power for us to have fresh to go after Mahomes and the Chiefs, the biggest foe in our path to a SB.

Alpha, I commented the other day, but when scanning this morning you’re title, it made me think of this..

 

 

Alpha likes this.  
 

Signed,

 

The Alpha.

 

Have a good Sunday brother.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

After the first preseason game I feel like of the possible scenarios are less likely now.   Both of these were already reflected in my initial 53 projection, and I think the first preseason game may have just confirmed them.

 

1.  The odds we keep 7 WRs went way down even further.  I already didn’t think we would keep 7, but after the game and there only being 2 preseason games left, the odds of us keeping 7 got even smaller.    

 

2.  Antonio Williams making the final 53 seems even less likely  now with him not doing anything significant and fumbling once.  He was a guy I didn’t have making the roster already coming out of camp because he was still stuck behind Singletary, Moss and Brieda.  But he was a guy I was intrigued by and looking forward to seeing play this preseason in hopes he would flash that potential again.  

 

But with the first game over and only 2 left, I think the path to make 53 is just to steep a hill to climb now, especially since Singletary looked great and Moss and Brieda had a strong camp too according to reports.  

Im in agreement that they won’t roster 7 (barring some magical run from Stevenson or Hodgins) but aside from having only 2 games left to make their case, any other reason why that game solidified your belief they’ll only carry 6?

Edited August 15, 2021 by EmotionallyUnstable

[machine gun kelly]

2 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Im in agreement that they won’t roster 7 (barring some magical run from Stevenson or Hodgins) but aside from having only 2 games left to make their case, any other reason why that game solidified your belief they’ll only carry 6?

EU, I think the consideration for the 7th is only possible if they only keep 3 TE’s with Gilliam as the third even though he’s a FB.  That means Sweeney doesn’t make it, and they use that resource as a 7th.  
 

It’s more likely they keep Sweeney as the 4th, and 6 for WR’s as that is what McD has done historically.  If not,  where are you stealing from in the position groups as it has to come from somewhere. It’s more likely Stephenson and Hodgins go to the PS.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

Im in agreement that they won’t roster 7 (barring some magical run from Stevenson or Hodgins) but aside from having only 2 games left to make their case, any other reason why that game solidified your belief they’ll only carry 6?

Well I already had them carrying 6 only on simply a numbers game across the roster.  But for me, the only one IMO who had a chance to maybe make them consider 7 was Hodgins.  But he was going to really need an impactful preseason to make that a real consideration. 
 

But 1 catch and getting hurt again did him no favors.  After missing the season last year with a shoulder injury, the last thing he needed was to get hurt again.  Hopefully it’s not serious, but missing anymore time I think will seal his fate for the PS given the difficulty to make roster already at his position and the lack of time to make an impact with only 2 preseason games left, and one of those the first half will be used a lot as a dress rehearsal for the starters.  
 

I mean realistically there are about 5 to 6 quarters at most of preseason football left for the non starters as the starters likely play a quarter next week and close to a half the week after I would expect.  That’s not much time for anyone battling for a spot on the 53 at this point.  

4 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

EU, I think the consideration for the 7th is only possible if they only keep 3 TE’s with Gilliam as the third even though he’s a FB.  That means Sweeney doesn’t make it, and they use that resource as a 7th.  
 

It’s more likely they keep Sweeney as the 4th, and 6 for WR’s as that is what McD has done historically.  If not,  where are you stealing from in the position groups as it has to come from somewhere. It’s more likely Stephenson and Hodgins go to the PS.

I honestly am starting to believe Sweeney is going to make the 53.  I originally had him making the 53, but made a last second change.  But the more I hear McD and them talk about him, and seeing him make some plays against the Lions, I think it’s a real possibility he is going to make the roster.  And when I do my updated version 2 I am going to include him I think.  

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Well I already had them carrying 6 only on simply a numbers game across the roster.  But for me, the only one IMO who had a chance to maybe make them consider 7 was Hodgins.  But he was going to really need an impactful preseason to make that a real consideration. 
 

But 1 catch and getting hurt again did him no favors.  After missing the season last year with a shoulder injury, the last thing he needed was to get hurt again.  Hopefully it’s not serious, but missing anymore time I think will seal his fate for the PS given the difficulty to make roster already at his position and the lack of time to make an impact with only 2 preseason games left, and one of those the first half will be used a lot as a dress rehearsal for the starters.  
 

I mean realistically there are about 5 to 6 quarters at most of preseason football left for the non starters as the starters likely play a quarter next week and close to a half the week after I would expect.  That’s not much time for anyone battling for a spot on the 53 at this point.  

I honestly am starting to believe Sweeney is going to make the 53.  I originally had him making the 53, but made a last second change.  But the more I hear McD and them talk about him, and seeing him make some plays against the Lions, I think it’s a real possibility he is going to make the roster.  And when I do my updated version 2 I am going to include him I think.  

 

Yea positionally I think Sweeney in for your 11th lineman. Working out who that 11th lineman is will be more difficult.

[LabattBlue]

I like the OJ reference in the thread title. 

[MasterStrategist]

My take:

 

In: Sweeney, Stevenson, and Dodson

 

Out: Lewis, Obada or Addison (I think it's tough to keep 11 DL, will likely try trading someone), and Smith

 

Reasons:

1. Stevenson might be too difficult to stash, and his speed is something we are lacking

2. Sweeney is our best blocking TE, and some potential to keep developing

3. Dodson looked very solid, it will be a tough call who they like at the #4 and #5 spots (Makatevich ST play makes him a lock)

4. Neal is more a nickle corner than safety and is our backup to Taron.  I don't think we have luxury of keeping Lewis (he is more replaceable than Stevenson)

 

Josh Thomas also impressed me, him vs Hamlin for that 4th safety spot should be good competition.  I'm a big Hamlin fan, being in the Pitt area, got to see him and Dane play alot. 

 

Going to be tough cuts again.  Hopefully sneak Thomas, Smith, Hodgins, and Lewis onto the PS