Alphas first stab at the 53 as we approach first preseason game

[EmotionallyUnstable]

34 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't think they will keep 11 on the Dline. Think one of those 11 ultimately will go. 

And maybe two of them 

[Doc]

Yeah, 1 fewer DL (they kept 10 going into last season) and 1 more TE. 

[US Egg]

2 hours ago, qwksilver said:

With the extra game this year, we could really use a few more roster spots. 53 seems light and would make those decisions easier.

Does seem logical to expand rosters by a few.

 

2 hours ago, qwksilver said:

NFLPA got screwed, what where they thinking.

More money for non-starter/lower tier players on a 53 man roster?

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

My first stab at the final 53 (starters listed in bold first, followed by backups)

 

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox

WRS Diggs and Sanders - Davis, Kumerow

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle 

 

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star & Oliver - Phillips, Butler, Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Matakevich

SLB:  Klien - Adams

LCB:  Tre - Taron

RCB:  Levi - Dane, Lewis

SS:  Poyer - Neal

FS:  Hyde - Johnson, Hamlin

 

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

 

As someone else suggested, a roster that is so lop-sided (23 offense, 27 defense) seems unlikely to me.

For reference, I think it might be useful to look at the numbers the Bills kept last year, which in part represent their perception of the numbers of bodies ready to dress at these spots. (your projection in parentheses).  I will bold the situations that seem unlikely to me.

 

QB 3 (2)  [two is a more usual number around the league]

RB 4 (3) [one was Taiwan Jones, one of our gunners]

FB 1 (1) [though Gilliam was called a TE last year]

TE 3 (2)

WR 6 (6) [one was Andre Roberts, as KR/PR]

OL 10 (9)

 

I think it's extremely unlikely we keep only 2 TE.  I also think one more OLman will be likely, though it's possible they go with 9. That would give us 24 or 25 on offense.  If we keep 9, I think Doyle is likely to develop plantar fascitis or something and go on IR to start the season, and someone like Bobby Hart or Forrest Lamp will be kept.  If we keep 10, Doyle may stay on the roster.

 

DE 5 (6)

DL 4 (5)

LB 6 (6) 

CB 5 (5)

S 3 (5) I agree that Neal will make the team, but in the past he's been counted as a CB, which means one of those you list doesn't make it.

 

I think it's extremely unlikely we keep 11 DLmen when we only kept 9 last year. We might keep 10.

 

 

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

With Hollister and Knox, the guy I want to win the job is Knox just based on the matchup problems his physical ability can create.  But he didn't have a very consistent camp, and that opens up the door for Hollister, who was pretty solid in his opportunities in Seattle.  We won't know if Hollister is a true threat to beat out Knox until we get to see some in game action, but my pick right now is more based on Knox lack of momentum coming out of camp.  This is really a toss up for me right now on who will start week 1, either one of them could or even someone not even on the roster yet...see note below

 

I'm a bit puzzled by the "didn't have a very consistent camp" when we're only on the 2nd week of it.  Seems to me there's a lot of camp left, and since Hollister has spent a good bit of the last 2 weeks out with a back injury - what has he shown you that has him beating out the incumbant? 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is my first attempt at the final 53 and also who I think starts come week 1 based on camp reports ahead of our first preseason game.  Obviously some of these are certain locks, and others are fluid and preseason could change some of them:  

 

Preseason is going to be quite important I think this year to the final makeup on this roster at several key positions.  And not just for backup roles, quite a few starting roles up for grabs too as we all know.  I would say RB, TE, DE, CB2, and KR (although I think McKinzie is now a pretty strong favorite for KR/PR duties) are all spots where not only is depth chart uncertain, but the starting spot is certainly in play as well.  

 

My first stab at the final 53 (starters listed in bold first, followed by backups)

 

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox

WRS Diggs and Sanders - Davis, Kumerow

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle 

 

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star & Oliver - Phillips, Butler, Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Matakevich

SLB:  Klien - Adams

LCB:  Tre - Taron

RCB:  Levi - Dane, Lewis

SS:  Poyer - Neal

FS:  Hyde - Johnson, Hamlin

 

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

 

NOTES ON ABOVE:

As you can see I have AJE beating out Addison, Singletary staying atop the depth chart, Levi starting, and Hollister Beating out Knox.  

 

At CB, I think Dane is still in the mix, but I think Levi has got a sizable enough lead that its probable he holds down the starting job week 1.  

 

With AJE, I think they want to get some of that youth on the field and AJE has apparently been tearing up camp.  With Addison being older, rotating him in to keep him fresh makes a lot of sense even though Addison has been getting his own share of praise too and still could start come week 1.  AJE and Hughes is a nice balance of vet and youth, with a nice combo of vet and youth rotating through as well.  

 

At RB, I think all 3 of them have had good moments in camp, but Moss is dinged up again and coming off an injury.  Singletary has been looking good in camp, so I think he holds onto his starting spot to start the season with Brieda being more used as a change of pace back.  Honestly, I think our run game is going to be a lot like SF had when Brieda was there, any given week one of them can be the lead dog and have a big game.  I think we will have a good overall ground game, with no one guy dominating the season touches as they ride the hot hand or game plan each week.  

 

With Hollister and Knox, the guy I want to win the job is Knox just based on the matchup problems his physical ability can create.  But he didn't have a very consistent camp, and that opens up the door for Hollister, who was pretty solid in his opportunities in Seattle.  We won't know if Hollister is a true threat to beat out Knox until we get to see some in game action, but my pick right now is more based on Knox lack of momentum coming out of camp.  This is really a toss up for me right now on who will start week 1, either one of them could or even someone not even on the roster yet...see note below

 

• NOTE:  (Queue the eye rolls) Don't rule out a move before the end of preseason for another TE if Knox and Hollister struggle at all this preseason.  I don't think Beane will make a move until he see's them in some games to get a better feel if we even need to or not.  But Beane has proven he is not afraid to make a move at any point in a season if he thinks it makes our team better.  And if Knox and Hollister struggle at all this preseason, get ready for the daily dose of "Ertz" rumors again lol, although there are more potential options beyond just Ertz that could fit into Beane's target list.  

 

Speaking of trades, after the draft I have previously speculated, like many, that Addison (or maybe Hughes, but less likely) could be someone who gets traded if AJE, Obada, and the rookies keep impressing.  And while I won't rule it out, the more I think about it, the less likely I think it happens.  If I had to guess right now, I think we keep all 6 DE's and constantly rotate fresh legs to help wreak havoc in a year we are expected to challenge for a SB.  ESPECIALLY after how they saw the Bucs get to Mahomes and beat the Chiefs in the SB.  And right now, it appears we have 4 starting quality DE's and 2 high quality rookies for our future.  Thats a lot of pass rush fire power for us to have fresh to go after Mahomes and the Chiefs, the biggest foe in our path to a SB.

 

So you have 23 on offense and 27 on defense.  Are you Leslie Frasure's dad?  LOL

 

I agree with 6 DE, but can't see 5 DT on top of that and only 5 CB's though see you do have 5 safeties

 

I think instead of Hamlin the 5th safety is Thomson with Hamlin to the PS

 

Think too many people are reading too much into that Beane would always keep his draft picks.  With a roster as strong as it is, that may need to change this year.  Won't be surprised if all 4 of their 6th and 7th rounders get cut, but all make it to the PS

 

Considering how little the Bills use 3 LB, not sure they need a backup for Klein?  Can either Matakevich or Smith also play that position, if so go with 5 there.

 

I think somehow one of the two rookie tackles ends up on IR as they may want some more veteran backup help there.  And/or add another body for the line.

 

Likely there will be two DE lineman not making the final roster, could see both of them getting traded along with a RB like Williams and also some of the O lineman to be cut too could become trade bait.  Don't think all of them will get traded, but maybe a couple from this bunch.

 

There's usually always one surprise cut, I'll go with the D line there too between Hughes, Addison, or Butler.

[Kwai San]

4 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I have no idea who will make 53, but 23 offense and 27 defense? That seems pretty unlikely to me.

 Perhaps he is banking on a heavy load of offense on the PS???

[BillsFanForever19]

Taiwan Jones and Daryl Johnson being released? That's really an assault to our Special Teams. It's all the rage for fans to release Taiwan because he doesn't offer much beyond Special Teams. But they knew that when they re-signed him. They talk him up as "maybe the best gunner in the NFL". I guarantee you, he will be on this roster. Whether fans like it or not.

[SCBills]

Was flipping around the radio this morning driving to work and came across Mad Dog Radio.. Schein had Sal Palantonio on..

 

Sal stated all teams he spoke to have 5 things that they are hyper focused on in the 17 game season (speaking of attrition)

 

3-5 were all health related, and you can only plan for health so much 

 

1 & 2 were personnel related…. 
 

Teams are loading up on DL and RB’s.  

[Kwai San]

12 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Taiwan Jones and Daryl Johnson being released? That's really an assault to our Special Teams. It's all the rage for fans to release Taiwan because he doesn't offer much beyond Special Teams. But they knew that when they re-signed him. They talk him up as "maybe the best gunner in the NFL". I guarantee you, he will be on this roster. Whether fans like it or not.

 

Well that kinda nails down the make up of this board....some will like it most will not.

[billybrew1]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is my first attempt at the final 53 and also who I think starts come week 1 based on camp reports ahead of our first preseason game.  Obviously some of these are certain locks, and others are fluid and preseason could change some of them:  

 

Preseason is going to be quite important I think this year to the final makeup on this roster at several key positions.  And not just for backup roles, quite a few starting roles up for grabs too as we all know.  I would say RB, TE, DE, CB2, and KR (although I think McKinzie is now a pretty strong favorite for KR/PR duties) are all spots where not only is depth chart uncertain, but the starting spot is certainly in play as well.  

 

My first stab at the final 53 (starters listed in bold first, followed by backups)

 

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox

WRS Diggs and Sanders - Davis, Kumerow

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle 

 

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star & Oliver - Phillips, Butler, Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Matakevich

SLB:  Klien - Adams

LCB:  Tre - Taron

RCB:  Levi - Dane, Lewis

SS:  Poyer - Neal

FS:  Hyde - Johnson, Hamlin

 

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

 

NOTES ON ABOVE:

As you can see I have AJE beating out Addison, Singletary staying atop the depth chart, Levi starting, and Hollister Beating out Knox.  

 

At CB, I think Dane is still in the mix, but I think Levi has got a sizable enough lead that its probable he holds down the starting job week 1.  

 

With AJE, I think they want to get some of that youth on the field and AJE has apparently been tearing up camp.  With Addison being older, rotating him in to keep him fresh makes a lot of sense even though Addison has been getting his own share of praise too and still could start come week 1.  AJE and Hughes is a nice balance of vet and youth, with a nice combo of vet and youth rotating through as well.  

 

At RB, I think all 3 of them have had good moments in camp, but Moss is dinged up again and coming off an injury.  Singletary has been looking good in camp, so I think he holds onto his starting spot to start the season with Brieda being more used as a change of pace back.  Honestly, I think our run game is going to be a lot like SF had when Brieda was there, any given week one of them can be the lead dog and have a big game.  I think we will have a good overall ground game, with no one guy dominating the season touches as they ride the hot hand or game plan each week.  

 

With Hollister and Knox, the guy I want to win the job is Knox just based on the matchup problems his physical ability can create.  But he didn't have a very consistent camp, and that opens up the door for Hollister, who was pretty solid in his opportunities in Seattle.  We won't know if Hollister is a true threat to beat out Knox until we get to see some in game action, but my pick right now is more based on Knox lack of momentum coming out of camp.  This is really a toss up for me right now on who will start week 1, either one of them could or even someone not even on the roster yet...see note below

 

• NOTE:  (Queue the eye rolls) Don't rule out a move before the end of preseason for another TE if Knox and Hollister struggle at all this preseason.  I don't think Beane will make a move until he see's them in some games to get a better feel if we even need to or not.  But Beane has proven he is not afraid to make a move at any point in a season if he thinks it makes our team better.  And if Knox and Hollister struggle at all this preseason, get ready for the daily dose of "Ertz" rumors again lol, although there are more potential options beyond just Ertz that could fit into Beane's target list.  

 

Speaking of trades, after the draft I have previously speculated, like many, that Addison (or maybe Hughes, but less likely) could be someone who gets traded if AJE, Obada, and the rookies keep impressing.  And while I won't rule it out, the more I think about it, the less likely I think it happens.  If I had to guess right now, I think we keep all 6 DE's and constantly rotate fresh legs to help wreak havoc in a year we are expected to challenge for a SB.  ESPECIALLY after how they saw the Bucs get to Mahomes and beat the Chiefs in the SB.  And right now, it appears we have 4 starting quality DE's and 2 high quality rookies for our future.  Thats a lot of pass rush fire power for us to have fresh to go after Mahomes and the Chiefs, the biggest foe in our path to a SB.

Super Bowl!    Honestly, though, I think you described the TE situation very well. Beane has got his finger on the pulse of the Bills and the rest of the NFL. If not TE, then a replacement for Cam Lewis who I think does belong on a roster of a team with Super Bowl  aspirations. Then of course, we still might do a big upgrade at DT. Someone that could be a difference maker vs. the chefs. These are the three areas where we could maybe use an upgrade if we are to beat the chefs. Maybe we're OK at DT IDK? Star had a year off Is he rejuvenated? Phillips says he had a great offseason building strength and not having to worry about rehab; is he going to blossom this year? What about Ed? What's he going to do this year? How is this defense going to put him in a place where he can make an impact? I wonder? Then Zimmer, Butler provide solid depth but a Super Bowl team often has a dominant player at DT.

Knox worked extremely hard this whole offseason. He absolutely gets an A for effort. He also has the Body of a great TE. Is he ever going to develop hands? Is he ever going to develop a passing relationship with JA? (It often seems the two are on different pages and Dawson admits he has troubles here plus JA has no problems finding his others guys so it's Knox that is the one that has to clean up his routes I think, can he? How about blocking? Again, Knox gets an A for effort, and I admit his blocking assignments are crazy hard, but he needs to be better here too. The good news is that TEs often take three years to develop and here we are entering year three. He has the tools and the effort, let's us hope he can put it all together and he gives Beane a headache trying to sign him long term. If he answers the bell, do we keep him for year four or trade him while we own his rights? Good problem and I hope it becomes a reality. 

There is just no way Cam Lewis belongs on this roster. He sticks out like a sore thumb and the Bills have to upgrade here. Not sure why they're acting like everything is fine here? The Bills need to go BPA in the draft but if there is a corner next year, CB could be the ticket with our #1 pick. I feel positive the Bills are going to find somebody and bring him in before week one.

Really nice crack at 53, thanks.

 

Go Bills!

[Big Blitz]

Love it.  

[Saxum]

Quote

LCB:  Tre - Taron

RCB:  Levi - Dane, Lewis

 

Taron will not play LCB unless no one else is available.  He plays 3rd (MCB) in three CB sets.  In role he is closer to Siran Neal than Tre.

 

For those younger players who Bills are choosing between and are at this point capable of being extended should talk to players agents and see if extensions can be negotiated.  Different players and agents have different priorities - some want the most possible in next contract and others have other priorities and for guarantees in future years. 

[ganesh]

7 hours ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Great write up, thanks @Alphadawg7. Clear you've put a lot of thought into it.

 

Completely agree on everyone else and wow, look at that roster. Hard to believe how far this team has come in a few short years, it's awesome. I do not envy the coaches making these roster decisions because we'll have to cut some talented guys. Go Bills!

And yet people are going to tear it apart when we play the Chiefs and the Titans back to back.

[Lothar]

7 hours ago, vincec said:

If Addison doesn’t start then I can’t see them keeping him instead of Johnson.

Addison will be critical to the rotation this year. You gain almost no cap space by cutting him. If you want to cut one of the vets, I think it has to be Butler. That brings back about 3 million, even with the renegotiated contact.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Lothar

[vincec]

57 minutes ago, Lothar said:

Addison will be critical to the rotation this year. You gain almost no cap space by cutting him. If you want to cut one of the vets, I think it has to be Butler. That brings back about 3 million, even with the renegotiated contact.

I think Butler may go as well. Given how deep they are at DE I could see them only keeping 4 true DTs. That probably means that either Phillips, Zimmer or Butler are cut.

[machine gun kelly]

9 hours ago, qwksilver said:

With the extra game this year, we could really use a few more roster spots. 53 seems light and would make those decisions easier.

 

NFLPA got screwed, what where they thinking.

I was thinking the same in that instead of 53 and 46 dress, it would be 55 and 50 dress.  They get paid whether they dress or not.  Those two spots would help, and the PS is always vulnerable to be poached.  Several of the young guys mentioned above that would be cut, will more likely be offered the PS.

 

One thing I didn’t know that Sal mentioned yesterday morning was they changed again this year in the cuts.  Remember a couple of year ago when they went to just one cut from 90 to 53, and now Sal mentions there will be cuts after each preseason game.  He only knew off the top of his head we go from 90 to 85 next Tuesday.  Then the following Tuesday’s after each game will be additional cuts to the final 53 I think it was the Saturday after the last preseason game, but don’t quite me.  I’m sure one of you guys know the exact numbers.  I didn’t read about this change until he mentioned on the morning show yesterday.

 

Lastly, very well written Alpha.  You put some hw. Into it so

 

Soup For You!

Edited August 11, 2021 by machine gun kelly

[Rock'em Sock'em]

12 hours ago, qwksilver said:

NFLPA got screwed, what where they thinking.

$$$$ - increased cap, but being spread around to the same number of guys.

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

5 hours ago, ganesh said:

And yet people are going to tear it apart when we play the Chiefs and the Titans back to back.

Haha true but that's always the way...I'm more hopeful about our chances against Tennessee this season. Having Star back and a hopefully improved and larger front seven should help us against Derrick Henry plus the Titans lost a lot of talent on both sides of the ball in FA. I don't think Julio Jones and Bud Dupree make up for their other losses and while talented, can either guy be trusted to stay healthy? I'd expect Allen to shred their defense this season as well, he's seen them plenty of times by now.

 

The Chiefs, on the other hand, are still the gold standard in terms of talented rosters. I think we've closed the gap and I think the defense we're trying to build should be a tougher test for Mahomes and Co., but they still worry me more than any other team in the league. I still cannot believe that Baltimore traded Orlando Brown Jr. to KC...was really hoping their O-line would fall apart, but they did a great job rebuilding it. 

[SoCal Deek]

I’ve always simplified the roster makeup game down to this: with 53 roster spots minus 3 or 4 for the Kicking Game (K, P, LS, PR/KR) you have essentially 49 slots to fill out your entire Offense and Defense. If you assume you’ve got at least one backup for every starting position that puts you at 44 players. So you have 5 players left to invest on going three deep at a few key positions…that’s it. The strategic side of football would tell you those ‘extra’ guys have to be sprinklered between RB, WR on offense and DB on defense…and you may be able to bank an extra player by going one light on the OL with a swing tackle or guard.
 

So in short, who are those ‘extra’ 5 players?  (RB, WR, DB….maybe TE)

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I’ve always simplified the roster makeup game down to this: with 53 roster spots minus 3 or 4 for the Kicking Game (K, P, LS, PR/KR) you have essentially 49 slots to fill out your entire Offense and Defense. If you assume you’ve got at least one backup for every starting position that puts you at 44 players. So you have 5 players left to invest on going three deep at a few key positions…that’s it. The strategic side of football would tell you those ‘extra’ guys have to be sprinklered between RB, WR on offense and DB on defense…and you may be able to bank an extra player by going one light on the OL with a swing tackle or guard.
 

So in short, who are those ‘extra’ 5 players?  (RB, WR, DB….maybe TE)

 

Where that gets tricky is on defense... because are you saying your 11 spots include the 3rd linebacker or the nickel corner? Then how do you backfill those spots? The Bills actually went with 6 linebackers and 5 corners last year but played nickel way more than base.