Alphas first stab at the 53 as we approach first preseason game

[Alphadawg7]

Here is my first attempt at the final 53 and also who I think starts come week 1 based on camp reports ahead of our first preseason game.  Obviously some of these are certain locks, and others are fluid and preseason could change some of them:  

 

Preseason is going to be quite important I think this year to the final makeup on this roster at several key positions.  And not just for backup roles, quite a few starting roles up for grabs too as we all know.  I would say RB, TE, DE, CB2, and KR (although I think McKinzie is now a pretty strong favorite for KR/PR duties) are all spots where not only is depth chart uncertain, but the starting spot is certainly in play as well.  

 

My first stab at the final 53 (starters listed in bold first, followed by backups)

 

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

**UPDATED** TE Knox - Hollister

WRS Diggs and Sanders - Davis, Kumerow

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle 

 

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star & Oliver - Phillips, Butler, Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Matakevich

SLB:  Klien - Adams

LCB:  Tre - Taron

RCB:  Levi - Dane, Lewis

SS:  Poyer - Neal

FS:  Hyde - Johnson, Hamlin

 

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

 

NOTES ON ABOVE:

As you can see I have AJE beating out Addison, Singletary staying atop the depth chart, Levi starting, and Knox keeping his starter status ***UPDATED***

 

At CB, I think Dane is still in the mix, but I think Levi has got a sizable enough lead that its probable he holds down the starting job week 1.  

 

With AJE, I think they want to get some of that youth on the field and AJE has apparently been tearing up camp.  With Addison being older, rotating him in to keep him fresh makes a lot of sense even though Addison has been getting his own share of praise too and still could start come week 1.  AJE and Hughes is a nice balance of vet and youth, with a nice combo of vet and youth rotating through as well.  

 

At RB, I think all 3 of them have had good moments in camp, but Moss is dinged up again and coming off an injury.  Singletary has been looking good in camp, so I think he holds onto his starting spot to start the season with Brieda being more used as a change of pace back.  Honestly, I think our run game is going to be a lot like SF had when Brieda was there, any given week one of them can be the lead dog and have a big game.  I think we will have a good overall ground game, with no one guy dominating the season touches as they ride the hot hand or game plan each week.  

 

***UPDATED*** With Hollister and Knox, the guy I want to win the job is Knox just based on the matchup problems his physical ability can create.  Originally I speculated Hollister was going to emerge as the starter just based on how critical some of the reporters covering camp had been on Knox thus far.  But with this report today 8/11, McDermott is giving Knox a lot of praise and saying he has had a strong camp overall.  So given this story today, I have updated this to be Knox winning the job based on McD's praise as I trust his opinion a lot more than others as he has shown to pretty much always mean what he says in his time here.  

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2021/08/11/sean-mcdermott-dawson-knox-really-good-training-camp-buffalo-bills/

 

Speaking of trades, after the draft I have previously speculated, like many, that Addison (or maybe Hughes, but less likely) could be someone who gets traded if AJE, Obada, and the rookies keep impressing.  And while I won't rule it out, the more I think about it, the less likely I think it happens.  If I had to guess right now, I think we keep all 6 DE's and constantly rotate fresh legs to help wreak havoc in a year we are expected to challenge for a SB.  ESPECIALLY after how they saw the Bucs get to Mahomes and beat the Chiefs in the SB.  And right now, it appears we have 4 starting quality DE's and 2 high quality rookies for our future.  Thats a lot of pass rush fire power for us to have fresh to go after Mahomes and the Chiefs, the biggest foe in our path to a SB.

Edited August 11, 2021 by Alphadawg7

[Don Otreply]

Nice, 👍

 

Preseason games will certainly be important, but they always are, even though some mistakenly feel otherwise, 

 

Go Bills!!!

[Logic]

Great post. Thanks.

The only changes I have are that I believe they'll drop either Butler or Phillips at DT and use that roster spot on a third tight end (at this point, likely Tommy Sweeney).

It also would not surprise me if they only carried two backup linebackers on the 53 and used the extra roster spot on a young WR, either Hodgins or Stevenson -- I don't think they want to subject both to waivers.

Otherwise, I agree with your list. 

[Patrick Duffy]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

Can see just about all of your prediction having a good chance to be right. Only part I would mention is RB. I think they keep 4 RB's instead of 3. A lot of the 53 are obvious, or at least to me anyways. There's like.....only a few positions that I would consider up in the air. Can't wait to see how plays out. 

[No_Matter_What]

I have no idea who will make 53, but 23 offense and 27 defense? That seems pretty unlikely to me.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Nice, 👍

 

Preseason games will certainly be important, but they always are, even though some mistakenly feel otherwise, 

 

Go Bills!!!

 

Agreed, its always important.  This year the key battles are pretty well known in terms of starting positions...CB2, TE, DE, and RB are the most unsettled.  

 

One big wildcard for me is a popular player discussed around here, and that is Antonio Williams.  He put on a show in a regular season game and has been flashing in camp too.  The problem is for him, the other 3 RB's have also flashed.  So be fun to see if AW gets some good playing time in preseason and what he does with it, because if he has a great preseason, he could make the RB decisions very hard for Beane.  If he goes on to have a great preseason coupled with impressive performance in a regular season game last year will make him nearly impossible to stash on the PS without someone snagging him up.  

 

[Rc2catch]

I can live with that roster, definitely can see some possible vets traded like Addison or yes even Hughes to an NFC team that maybe gets hit with injuries and has playoff hopes. 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I have no idea who will make 53, but 23 offense and 27 defense? That seems pretty unlikely to me.

 

I took that into consideration, but end of the day, there is just more developmental depth on the defensive side of the ball than on the offensive side.  We are pretty set on offense, so I don't think we will run as deep on the offense as the defense this year, which the defense was clearly the weaker group last year.  

[Shaw66]

Outstanding review!  Thanks.

 

Sounds like a team preparing to be better than 2020.

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, Logic said:

Great post. Thanks.

The only changes I have are that I believe they'll drop either Butler or Phillips at DT and use that roster spot on a third tight end (at this point, likely Tommy Sweeney).

It also would not surprise me if they only carried two backup linebackers on the 53 and used the extra roster spot on a young WR, either Hodgins or Stevenson -- I don't think they want to subject both to waivers.

Otherwise, I agree with your list. 

 

I do think Sweeney has a shot to make the roster, so that wouldn't surprise me either and I had him on there until I realized I had not added in the kickers yet. 

 

While I like the upside of the young WR's, I just don't think they will keep 7 WR's.  They haven't kept that many before, even when it made more sense with less top end talent on the WR depth chart.  

[Dont Stop Billeiving]

Great write up, thanks @Alphadawg7. Clear you've put a lot of thought into it.

 

Two things I noticed and have also been thinking about previously:

 

1) I know the Bills usually keep six WRs at most, but I'd really like to see them find a path to keeping 7 WRs this year. Our WR depth is really strong and with our offense being so dependent on the position, I think we need that seventh guy. Based on the reports from camp, I want Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie, Kumerow, and Hodgins on the 53. I was excited when we drafted Stevenson, but it sounds like he has struggled a bit so far. Hopefully, we can stash his on the PS because he has that elite speed we could use in the future.

 

2) Only other one that jumped out to me is cutting Darryl Johnson. Again, DE is a tough spot to keep more than six, but with Hughes and Addison possibly on their last years and Johnson being such a difference maker on ST who still has some room to grow as a pass rusher, maybe we could squeeze him on. 

 

To make room for Hodgins and Johnson in the situation I've described above, I'd cut Vernon Butler and Cam Lewis. I realize Butler restructured his deal and got more guaranteed money, but I'd rather take the dead cap hit and use his spot for someone else. The reports on him from training camp have been underwhelming and in my opinion, we don't need a 5th DT when Basham, Obada, and Rousseau can kick inside. Butler just isn't really good vs the run or the pass, it just hasn't worked out. Cam Lewis is a decent young player and I think we can sneak him onto the PS fairly comfortably, we can call him back up if/when needed. Neal can essentially be the 5th CB and 5th safety rolled into one.

 

Completely agree on everyone else and wow, look at that roster. Hard to believe how far this team has come in a few short years, it's awesome. I do not envy the coaches making these roster decisions because we'll have to cut some talented guys. Go Bills!

[NewEra]

Great job alpha.  That’s pretty much where I’m at minus addison.  I HOPE that we cut him, but I don’t see it happening.  Keeping 5  DTs is another question mark.  Tough to predict but I don’t see us cutting Zimmer or butler…..same goes for the other 3. Still wish we could somehow upgrade cb2.  

[John from Riverside]

33 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Here is my first attempt at the final 53 and also who I think starts come week 1 based on camp reports ahead of our first preseason game.  Obviously some of these are certain locks, and others are fluid and preseason could change some of them:  

 

Preseason is going to be quite important I think this year to the final makeup on this roster at several key positions.  And not just for backup roles, quite a few starting roles up for grabs too as we all know.  I would say RB, TE, DE, CB2, and KR (although I think McKinzie is now a pretty strong favorite for KR/PR duties) are all spots where not only is depth chart uncertain, but the starting spot is certainly in play as well.  

 

My first stab at the final 53 (starters listed in bold first, followed by backups)

 

QB Allen - Trubisky

RB Singletary - Moss, Brieda

FB - Gilliam (not in bold because we wont ever "start" a FB in this offense, but Gilliam will be the only FB on the roster)

TE Hollister - Knox

WRS Diggs and Sanders - Davis, Kumerow

Slot WR Cole - McKenzie

OL:  Dion, Jon, Mitch, Cody, Daryl - Ike, Bates, Brown, Doyle 

 

LDE:  Hughes - Obada, Boogie

RDE:  AJE - Addison, Rousseau

DT:  Star & Oliver - Phillips, Butler, Zimmer

WLB:  Milano - Smith

MLB:  Edmunds - Matakevich

SLB:  Klien - Adams

LCB:  Tre - Taron

RCB:  Levi - Dane, Lewis

SS:  Poyer - Neal

FS:  Hyde - Johnson, Hamlin

 

PR/KR:  Mckenzie (already counted above to the 53 total)

K:  Bass

P:  Haack

LS:  Ferguson

 

 

NOTES ON ABOVE:

As you can see I have AJE beating out Addison, Singletary staying atop the depth chart, Levi starting, and Hollister Beating out Knox.  

 

At CB, I think Dane is still in the mix, but I think Levi has got a sizable enough lead that its probable he holds down the starting job week 1.  

 

With AJE, I think they want to get some of that youth on the field and AJE has apparently been tearing up camp.  With Addison being older, rotating him in to keep him fresh makes a lot of sense even though Addison has been getting his own share of praise too and still could start come week 1.  AJE and Hughes is a nice balance of vet and youth, with a nice combo of vet and youth rotating through as well.  

 

At RB, I think all 3 of them have had good moments in camp, but Moss is dinged up again and coming off an injury.  Singletary has been looking good in camp, so I think he holds onto his starting spot to start the season with Brieda being more used as a change of pace back.  Honestly, I think our run game is going to be a lot like SF had when Brieda was there, any given week one of them can be the lead dog and have a big game.  I think we will have a good overall ground game, with no one guy dominating the season touches as they ride the hot hand or game plan each week.  

 

With Hollister and Knox, the guy I want to win the job is Knox just based on the matchup problems his physical ability can create.  But he didn't have a very consistent camp, and that opens up the door for Hollister, who was pretty solid in his opportunities in Seattle.  We won't know if Hollister is a true threat to beat out Knox until we get to see some in game action, but my pick right now is more based on Knox lack of momentum coming out of camp.  This is really a toss up for me right now on who will start week 1, either one of them could or even someone not even on the roster yet...see note below

 

• NOTE:  (Queue the eye rolls) Don't rule out a move before the end of preseason for another TE if Knox and Hollister struggle at all this preseason.  I don't think Beane will make a move until he see's them in some games to get a better feel if we even need to or not.  But Beane has proven he is not afraid to make a move at any point in a season if he thinks it makes our team better.  And if Knox and Hollister struggle at all this preseason, get ready for the daily dose of "Ertz" rumors again lol, although there are more potential options beyond just Ertz that could fit into Beane's target list.  

 

Speaking of trades, after the draft I have previously speculated, like many, that Addison (or maybe Hughes, but less likely) could be someone who gets traded if AJE, Obada, and the rookies keep impressing.  And while I won't rule it out, the more I think about it, the less likely I think it happens.  If I had to guess right now, I think we keep all 6 DE's and constantly rotate fresh legs to help wreak havoc in a year we are expected to challenge for a SB.  ESPECIALLY after how they saw the Bucs get to Mahomes and beat the Chiefs in the SB.  And right now, it appears we have 4 starting quality DE's and 2 high quality rookies for our future.  Thats a lot of pass rush fire power for us to have fresh to go after Mahomes and the Chiefs, the biggest foe in our path to a SB.

Solid choices....I do hope we find a way to keep Hodgins up

[No_Matter_What]

31 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I took that into consideration, but end of the day, there is just more developmental depth on the defensive side of the ball than on the offensive side.  We are pretty set on offense, so I don't think we will run as deep on the offense as the defense this year, which the defense was clearly the weaker group last year.  

While I do agree in general, 23/27 seems too much. 24/26 is more likely imo. I'd say add TE/RB maybe WR at the expense of DL.

 

DL will be brutal anyway since you kept 11 which is more than expected and you still had to cut Johnson, who they like, is still young and apparently plays important role in ST. 

 

Anyway still great post, I always love reading your input.

Edited August 10, 2021 by No_Matter_What

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, Dont Stop Billeiving said:

Great write up, thanks @Alphadawg7. Clear you've put a lot of thought into it.

 

Two things I noticed and have also been thinking about previously:

 

1) I know the Bills usually keep six WRs at most, but I'd really like to see them find a path to keeping 7 WRs this year. Our WR depth is really strong and with our offense being so dependent on the position, I think we need that seventh guy. Based on the reports from camp, I want Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie, Kumerow, and Hodgins on the 53. I was excited when we drafted Stevenson, but it sounds like he has struggled a bit so far. Hopefully, we can stash his on the PS because he has that elite speed we could use in the future.

 

2) Only other one that jumped out to me is cutting Darryl Johnson. Again, DE is a tough spot to keep more than six, but with Hughes and Addison possibly on their last years and Johnson being such a difference maker on ST who still has some room to grow as a pass rusher, maybe we could squeeze him on. 

 

To make room for Hodgins and Johnson in the situation I've described above, I'd cut Vernon Butler and Cam Lewis. I realize Butler restructured his deal and got more guaranteed money, but I'd rather take the dead cap hit and use his spot for someone else. The reports on him from training camp have been underwhelming and in my opinion, we don't need a 5th DT when Basham, Obada, and Rousseau can kick inside. Butler just isn't really good vs the run or the pass, it just hasn't worked out. Cam Lewis is a decent young player and I think we can sneak him onto the PS fairly comfortably, we can call him back up if/when needed. Neal can essentially be the 5th CB and 5th safety rolled into one.

 

Completely agree on everyone else and wow, look at that roster. Hard to believe how far this team has come in a few short years, it's awesome. I do not envy the coaches making these roster decisions because we'll have to cut some talented guys. Go Bills!

 

As I replied to someone else already, I just cant see us keeping 7 at WR given the depth of this roster right now.  I agree, I would love to keep Hodgins, but the reality is he wouldn't really play or even be active on game days without injuries ahead of him.  I think they are going to need that roster spot elsewhere.  And agree about Stevenson, his struggles in camp have sealed his fate to PS at best right now.  

 

Johsnon is a talented guy I could see Beane trading for a late pick in preseason, but I just don't see him making the roster unless Beane trades one of the other DE's like say Addison or someone gets hurt.  He isn't beating out Addison, Hughes, AJE or Obada.  And the 2 rookies are locks for the roster.  So its a numbers game for him, and its not in his favor right now.  So injuries or trades need to happen for him to have a shot at being on this roster week 1.  

 

Cam Lewis is a guy I have making the roster now based on camp, but he is no lock for sure.  I can see him being cut to keep someone else, like say Sweeney for instance.  But right now, I have him narrowly holding a roster spot.  

[qwksilver]

Kind of a long post for a backdoor Ertz thread 😁

 

All kidding aside, Beane, McDermott and staff will have some tough decisions. Hopefully we get a few picks for some of them. Nice work.

 

I too would like to see Sweeney make this team.

[HappyDays]

I can't figure out the d-line for the life of me. Oliver, Hughes, Epenesa, Rousseau, Basham, and Lotulelei are locks. Starting to feel like Obada is a lock too. They kept 9 last year so that leaves 2 spots left. If they just keep the vets Addison and Butler that leaves room for no one else. But I can't see Zimmer and Phillips and Darryl Johnson all failing to make the team.

 

So I think you could be right that they keep 11 d-linemen. Keep 1 of Zimmer/Phillips (or both with Butler getting cut) and Johnson for his special teams. Last year they kept 3 TEs and 6 LBs, if they keep 2 and 5 respectively that makes up the difference.

[MasterStrategist]

Great analysis.  

 

Agree with most, including all starters.

 

I think biggest decision comes down to the Dline.  11 guys worth keeping, do we keep them all?  10 is safe, 11th guy needs to stand out in camp_preseason.  If we keep 11 DL, then I'd only keep 5 LBS.  Use the extra roster spot for a young standout, my guess would be Hodgins.

[qwksilver]

With the extra game this year, we could really use a few more roster spots. 53 seems light and would make those decisions easier.

 

NFLPA got screwed, what where they thinking.

[MasterStrategist]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

As I replied to someone else already, I just cant see us keeping 7 at WR given the depth of this roster right now.  I agree, I would love to keep Hodgins, but the reality is he wouldn't really play or even be active on game days without injuries ahead of him.  I think they are going to need that roster spot elsewhere.  And agree about Stevenson, his struggles in camp have sealed his fate to PS at best right now.  

 

Johsnon is a talented guy I could see Beane trading for a late pick in preseason, but I just don't see him making the roster unless Beane trades one of the other DE's like say Addison or someone gets hurt.  He isn't beating out Addison, Hughes, AJE or Obada.  And the 2 rookies are locks for the roster.  So its a numbers game for him, and its not in his favor right now.  So injuries or trades need to happen for him to have a shot at being on this roster week 1.  

 

Cam Lewis is a guy I have making the roster now based on camp, but he is no lock for sure.  I can see him being cut to keep someone else, like say Sweeney for instance.  But right now, I have him narrowly holding a roster spot.  

If we keep Hodgins, it's protecting for a Sanders/Beasley injury.  If we want insurance policies, it better be at WR bc our offense is predicated off the passing game.   

 

It would also be thinking a year ahead, when Sanders and possibly even Beasley/McKenzie may be gone.  

 

All based on Hodgins having a great preseason.  Hoping he or Stevenson shines in preseason, make for a nice problem