Why Josh Allen is not a "one hit wonder"

[Thurman#1]

 

 

He's not likely to be a one hit wonder, agreed.

 

 

9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

The critics and pundits looked at Josh's rookie year stats and the Bills missing the playoffs and saw a horrible season for Josh, just like they predicted. Those of us who actually watched the games know the only reason the BIlls managed to win any games that year was because Josh put that terrible offense on his back and willed them to win.  He was the entire offense that year. 

 

 

 

This is a wild overreaction in trying to make Josh's first season look far better than it actually was. Josh did not play well that year, he just didn't. What he did was show that he had a ton of guts, that he would never quit, that he was a leader, and that he had flashes, including the ability to run far better than we had supposed he could. He was certainly NOT the only reason they won any games. And that's not an opinion, it's a stone-cold fact, unless you want to argue that our Week 10 41-10 win over the Jets was won entirely by Josh's cheering from the bench as Matt Barkley played QB the whole game.

 

"Those of us who actually watched the games know the only reason the Bills managed to win any games that year ..." is a phrase that makes absolutely zero sense that season or any other. It's a team game. There were many reasons we won a few games that year.

 

The main reason was that the defense was very good. Our six wins that year included a 13-12 win against Tennessee, a 14-13 win against the Lions, but more than that, in our 6 wins, only one time did the opposing team score more than 17 points, and in only two of those six wins did an opponent score more than 13 points. 

 

In those six games, our opponents scored a total of 79 points, an average of 13.2 PPG. That had an awful lot to do with many or most of those wins.

 

 

9 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

 

During Josh's second season those same pundits saw the BIlls lose the Houston Wild Card game and looked at Josh's season stats and walked away thinking Josh was still a bust.  He had a completion percentage below 60% and you couldn't be a franchise QB if you weren't accurate or played Hero Ball all the time. Those of us who actually watched the games saw Josh improve in every single facet of his game that season.  Not only did his numbers improve, but we discovered that Josh was clutch.  Third and longs weren't automatic punts anymore.  Down a score in the 4th Quarter?  No worries... just give the ball back to Josh and he is going to find a way to score.  He had the most game winning drives in the League that year.  We saw that Josh had that "it factor" that all the greats possess.

 

 

Like many Bills fans, you're being wildly oversensitive here.

 

After the second year, few were saying "Josh was still a bust," as you say.. A few trolls and curmudgeons here or there, sure. But most were saying that his major improvement, particularly in his accuracy, meant that he had a chance to be a good one, though he absolutely needed to continue to make serious improvement.

 

Did some still say he might be a bust? Yeah, it was still a reasonable possibility. Did some say they thought he would be a bust? Yeah, it was guessing, which is reasonable. But few were saying "Josh was still a bust," as if it was a fact. It simply didn't make much sense at that point. Yeah, there were a few ... who's that guy looks like a ferret with a hundred dollar haircut? Him, Domonique Foxworth, they were out there, but there were few of them.

 

There was still a possibility he wouldn't be the long-term franchise guy,  a decent possibility at the time, but his rate of improvement and the way he'd improved his accuracy meant there was also a very solid chance that he could be that franchise guy. That was the general opinion.

 

 

 

There may well be many fans on fan sites hoping this contract will turn out to be a bad decision for the Bills. Mostly simply because they'd rather see their team get a great QB than the Bills, that they'd rather see their team have a shot to reach SBs for a decade than the Bills. It's still possible, but that's not the way to bet. Last year was a revelation, a guy playing at an elite level.

 

The reaction around the league among the pundits has been wildly positive about this contract, and for good reason. It's a risk for both sides, but a good calculated one, for both sides. The consensus recognizes this.

 

 

 

 

Edited August 8, 2021 by Thurman#1

[HOUSE]

I will be visiting those boards after Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson sign

 

Its going to be fun

 

 

[snowbelt_subie]

josh is not a one hit wonder but the biggest problem i see  with fans are they want to project a really good season and assume it will happen again.  i seen it with mahomes 50 TD season his next season he had 26 td's.

 

even rodgers fluctuates from 45 or so to 25 tds on any given season.  its not a falure if josh goes 27 tds and 14 int next year, its just the ups and downs of being an nfl QB and teams adjusting.

 

the biggest thing i see with josh going forward is that he isnt pared with an offensive HC so he could see turnover in systems and OC's when he does well they get HC jobs.

 

i prefer the brees/payton  , reid / mahomes,  stefanski / baker model.  

[Doc]

I hope that Jets and Cheaters fans weren’t talking smack because, by that logic, their quarterbacks only looked good last year as well because of COVID… but in college.  OTOH Tua looked horrible while Jackson and Mayfield should have looked as good as Josh, but didn’t. 

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, snowbelt_subie said:

josh is not a one hit wonder but the biggest problem i see  with fans are they want to project a really good season and assume it will happen again.  i seen it with mahomes 50 TD season his next season he had 26 td's.

 

even rodgers fluctuates from 45 or so to 25 tds on any given season.  its not a falure if josh goes 27 tds and 14 int next year, its just the ups and downs of being an nfl QB and teams adjusting.

 

the biggest thing i see with josh going forward is that he isnt pared with an offensive HC so he could see turnover in systems and OC's when he does well they get HC jobs.

 

i prefer the brees/payton  , reid / mahomes,  stefanski / baker model.  

 

Yea Brady suffered from that defensive Head Coach.

[snowbelt_subie]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea Brady suffered from that defensive Head Coach.

 

brady had basically Charlie weis and josh mcdaniels for his entire time in NE.  It was Brady's offense after so long anyways just like payton manning had "his" offense.

 

if they can do that with josh it wont be a problem if they are changing systems every 2 or 3 years it could be.

[fergie's ire]

Nicely written and I agree completely.  We can see a trajectory and that trajectory has not leveled off, which is why I think it would be riskier to have Josh go into this season without the extension than it was to have him sign this extension.  Every reporter is talking about how much better he is in this training camp than in any camp before...that he is having much better practices than he had even last year.  Then would it be surprising if we see ANOTHER leap this year?  Not for those of us who have watched every game and seen what you have described.  Yes, it is possible that he has a less impressive year statistically and maybe we run the ball more, but it's also very possible that he has an even better year and wins the MVP....and if that happened without an extension that extension would get very expensive.

[PromoTheRobot]

13 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I've spent a lot of time over the last 24 hours skulking around the message boards of the Jets, Browns, Ravens, and Pats reading what they thought about the extension.  There were a few who thought it was a good signing, but the overwhelming majority believed it was a terrible decision by the Bills.  The opinion repeated over and over on those boards was that Allen only played one good season and he really isn't as good as he played last year. 

 

There are two reasons why I believe Josh Allen isn't a "one hit wonder".  I think they are probably the same reasons why the Pegulas and McBeane felt comfortable hitching the future of this franchise to Josh Allen yesterday. 

 

The first reason is that last year's "break out" season for Josh Allen, while surprising to many in the League, was not as surprising to those of us who have watched every snap of Josh Allen's career.  Josh has always suffered from what I consider lazy journalism in the national sports media.  No one really watched his games, they just looked at the box scores and focused on Josh's early Hero Ball moments and that became the Josh Allen narrative.  It's the same narrative that these other fan bases have heard repeatedly and now believe.

 

The critics and pundits looked at Josh's rookie year stats and the Bills missing the playoffs and saw a horrible season for Josh, just like they predicted. Those of us who actually watched the games know the only reason the BIlls managed to win any games that year was because Josh put that terrible offense on his back and willed them to win.  He was the entire offense that year.  

 

During Josh's second season those same pundits saw the BIlls lose the Houston Wild Card game and looked at Josh's season stats and walked away thinking Josh was still a bust.  He had a completion percentage below 60% and you couldn't be a franchise QB if you weren't accurate or played Hero Ball all the time. Those of us who actually watched the games saw Josh improve in every single facet of his game that season.  Not only did his numbers improve, but we discovered that Josh was clutch.  Third and longs weren't automatic punts anymore.  Down a score in the 4th Quarter?  No worries... just give the ball back to Josh and he is going to find a way to score.  He had the most game winning drives in the League that year.  We saw that Josh had that "it factor" that all the greats possess.

 

Fast forward to last season when Josh blew up and had his breakout season.  Those of us who watched Josh closely thought a season like that was definitely possible where most everyone else still thought that Josh Allen was a bust.   That's why even today people say that it was Stefon Diggs that made Josh last year, or that the entire season was just a fluke.  I disagree.  The 2020 season was a huge leap forward for Josh Allen, no argument from me, but it didn't come out of nowhere.  It was the culmination of the previous two seasons where Josh kept getting better and better.   The reason it caught NFL pundits by surprise is because they just weren't paying attention to Josh before.  Last season wasn't a "one hit wonder" for Josh, it was just the next step in the development of a naturally gifted QB who was determined to be the best.

 

The second reason why I don't think last year was a "one hit wonder" season for Josh is that he has the character traits a person needs to be very successful.  He has a great work ethic, he is mature, and he is mentally tough.  That's a powerful combination in someone who is determined to be the best.

 

Josh grew up a farm kid, and like most farm kids, he learned at an early age how to work hard.  He has continued to work every off season to improve his game.  Is there anyone on TBD who thinks that if Josh Allen wins the Super Bowl this year that he won't be right back to work next off season trying to improve his game even more?  He has the work ethic to become great.  I don't think he is the type of person who will ever rest on his laurels or feel like he has finally "arrived".  

 

Josh's maturity makes him incredibly even keeled.  He doesn't allow the game to get him too high or too low.  He is the same person in every post game press conference.  They can win by 20 and the first thing he talks about is that he could have played better.  They can lose by 20 and he takes all the blame on his shoulders, even is he wasn't the reason the team lost.  Have you ever seen a Baker Mayfield press conference after a loss? He sits there and sulks like a 12 year old who just got grounded.  If you're going to be an NFL franchise QB, you'd better have the maturity to roll with the punches and manage the ups and downs that are going to come your way.  I think Josh has that.

 

The last important trait Josh has is mental toughness.  We all know Josh's JUCO story by now and I'm not going to rehash it.  It's obvious that Josh has always been behind the 8 ball leading up to his NFL career.  Even when he was finally considered a top NFL QB prospect coming out of Wyoming, he endured a level of scorn and ridicule that I just don't remember any other QB prospect receiving.  It only got worse after the Draft.  The criticism from pundits and the media was nasty, unrelenting, and personal.  It was so bad that I actually felt bad for Josh's parents.  In the face of that mountain of negative pressure Josh never blinked.  He didn't crumble under the ridicule, he shut out the noise and kept grinding.  The NFL and the media weren't too big for him.  He has shown that he can manage the mental rigors of being a franchise QB.  He's not going to crumble like Wentz did.

 

That's why I think last year wasn't just a "one hit wonder".  Josh is going to continue to improve like he has each season he has played.  He isn't going to suddenly become lazy and soft and complacent.  If Josh can stay healthy and Beane continues to put a reasonable roster around him, I'd be shocked if Josh Allen and the Bills don't win a Super Bowl in the next three years.  I don't think this contract is a mistake, I think it is a harbinger of great things to come.

 

 

 

I put that lack of faith in Josh Allen to practical use last year with my Draft Kings betting app. Thanks to NH finally allowing legal sports wagering. Since betting lines are based on what bettors think, the Bills and individual Bills players were constantly undervalued, which offered some amazing no-brainer bets that paid off consistently. 

[Rochesterfan]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Anyone who didn't see progress in Josh's 2nd season didn't watch him. That said, if their argument is "yea but you don't pay the kind of money the Bills paid to someone who played Josh Allen 2019 football" then they'd be right. I just don't really see the rationale for believing 2019 was the norm and 2020 the exception. If Josh had come out let's say in 2017 and played 2017, 18 and 19 at his 2019 level then suddenly had his 2020 season I'd be more sceptical. Because then 2020 is an anomaly. The reality with Josh Allen was he was very much still improving there was no sign of a plateu. It is entirely consistent with reason and logic based what was on the field to believe that the 2020 performance was the result of a kid who was still improving. Whether the numbers are the same, a bit better or a bit worse in 2021 I have zero concern about Josh Allen regressing. I don't see any reason to expect he would.

 

I totally agree and think you can take it a step further.  He has not just improved season over season - if you break down the seasons into two 8 game stretches - he has improved each stretch within a season.

 

Year 1 before the injury - he made some plays, but was wildly inconsistent - which is exactly what you expect for a super raw rookie on a crap team.

 

Year 1 after the injury - suddenly he comes back and looks different - things slowed down for him - he was still inconsistent, but now he was more calculated in his approach and where he was going.  He improved because he suddenly started to understand and translate film and concepts into game play.

 

Year 2 early season - he worked hard in the off season and came back and was better than down the stretch year 1 - more consistent plays - hitting guys all over the field - making throws before breaks - anticipation throws.  The talent was much better and he had grown into a more polished passer.

 

Year 2 late season - you saw what 2020 became the last 8 games of 2019 - he started having answers.  He was making reads quickly and making good decisions and he was letting the talent make plays.  He still got amped at times, but he started making touch throws, and weird arm angle throws - just anything he needed to keep moving and his accuracy was climbing as he adjusted.

 

Year 3 early - you could see the change starting game 1 with a 300 yard performance and complete control and it rolled week after week.  There were still a few mistakes with the ball - like the Rams game, but his control was better.

 

Year 3 late - you saw a guy in complete control - he had guys open and knew what read and where to go.  After Arizona - he literally put this team up and made the offense unstoppable.  He was - to me - the best QB in the NFL in the second half of the season.

 

Now you see him in practice - nothing went away and he has added more off angle throws to his arsenal - there is no reason to think he will regress - he hasn’t yet and although I can’t expect significant improvement on his numbers - I think he will continue to become a better QB this season.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

13 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I've spent a lot of time over the last 24 hours skulking around the message boards of the Jets, Browns, Ravens, and Pats reading what they thought about the extension.  There were a few who thought it was a good signing, but the overwhelming majority believed it was a terrible decision by the Bills.  The opinion repeated over and over on those boards was that Allen only played one good season and he really isn't as good as he played last year. 

skulking?   
(get a real hobby  )

 

I am usually wary of huge contracts 

 

Jimmy G’s huge contract that guaranteed huge $ LMAO 😂 

 

Mahomes 10 year contract 

Allens 8 year contract 

 

Josh can and will get a new contract before Pat

 

As to one hit wonder?  
year 1 leading WR Zay Jones 

year 2 improvement in passing and game management 

year 3 nearly if not a record jump in QB % stats.
Breaking NFL records as yr 3 progressed. 

Edited August 8, 2021 by SlimShady'sSpaceForce

[HOUSE]

From what I am reading some fans are jealous of the ease of signing

 

They love a big fight, this gives them the chance to debate value.

 

Never deny opposing team fans the right to trash your QB 

 

Brandon Beane screwed them all with a fast deal

 

 

 

.

Edited August 8, 2021 by HOUSE

[Rock'em Sock'em]

13 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

even today people say that it was Stefon Diggs that made Josh last year

Cool post.

In 2018 Josh Allen was making the playoffs throwing to Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin.  Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins was throwing to Diggs AND Thielen.  Diggs is great, but I didn't see him "make" Cousins into an MVP candidate.  In reality, most teams have name-brand WRs.  So sure, let's keep surrounding Josh with name-brand WRs and let them "make" Josh into a perennial league and SuperBowl MVP.

Edited August 8, 2021 by Rock'em Sock'em

[GunnerBill]

33 minutes ago, snowbelt_subie said:

 

brady had basically Charlie weis and josh mcdaniels for his entire time in NE.  It was Brady's offense after so long anyways just like payton manning had "his" offense.

 

if they can do that with josh it wont be a problem if they are changing systems every 2 or 3 years it could be.

 

I very much doubt the Bills are going to change system every 2 or 3 years and isn't it the whole point that when you have an elite Quarterback it is their offense. If Daboll leaves and Dorsey takes over you better believe Josh is having a big say in anything that comes or goes playbook wise. The time you really need system continuity is early. If we had lost Daboll after year 2 and then Josh is learning a new system year 3 maybe he wouldn't have made that jump quite so fast. But once you gey your guy to this point I honestly don't think it matters. 

16 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:

 

I totally agree and think you can take it a step further.  He has not just improved season over season - if you break down the seasons into two 8 game stretches - he has improved each stretch within a season.

 

Year 1 before the injury - he made some plays, but was wildly inconsistent - which is exactly what you expect for a super raw rookie on a crap team.

 

Year 1 after the injury - suddenly he comes back and looks different - things slowed down for him - he was still inconsistent, but now he was more calculated in his approach and where he was going.  He improved because he suddenly started to understand and translate film and concepts into game play.

 

Year 2 early season - he worked hard in the off season and came back and was better than down the stretch year 1 - more consistent plays - hitting guys all over the field - making throws before breaks - anticipation throws.  The talent was much better and he had grown into a more polished passer.

 

Year 2 late season - you saw what 2020 became the last 8 games of 2019 - he started having answers.  He was making reads quickly and making good decisions and he was letting the talent make plays.  He still got amped at times, but he started making touch throws, and weird arm angle throws - just anything he needed to keep moving and his accuracy was climbing as he adjusted.

 

Year 3 early - you could see the change starting game 1 with a 300 yard performance and complete control and it rolled week after week.  There were still a few mistakes with the ball - like the Rams game, but his control was better.

 

Year 3 late - you saw a guy in complete control - he had guys open and knew what read and where to go.  After Arizona - he literally put this team up and made the offense unstoppable.  He was - to me - the best QB in the NFL in the second half of the season.

 

Now you see him in practice - nothing went away and he has added more off angle throws to his arsenal - there is no reason to think he will regress - he hasn’t yet and although I can’t expect significant improvement on his numbers - I think he will continue to become a better QB this season.

 

I have said it before but year 2 I thought he started really well despite turning it over too much then had a struggle after that New England game where he played too safe through and including the loss at Cleveland. From that point on however his numbers sky rocketed. It was like he finally found the balance where he takes risks but only the right amount of risks. McDermott had a long chat with him after that Cleveland week and told him to play fearless and that was the final piece clicking into place. The numbers might be a tad down in 2021... offense was at an all time high in empty stadiums in 2020... but I don't have any concern that Josh will somehow fall off. He is here at this elite level to stay.

[Doc]

33 minutes ago, SlimShady'sSpaceForce said:

skulking?   
(get a real hobby  )

 

I am usually wary of huge contracts 

 

Jimmy G’s huge contract that guaranteed huge $ LMAO 😂 

 

Mahomes 10 year contract 

Allens 8 year contract 

 

Josh can and will get a new contract before Pat

 

As to one hit wonder?  
year 1 leading WR Zay Jones 

year 2 improvement in passing and game management 

year 3 nearly if not a record jump in QB % stats.
Breaking NFL records as yr 3 progressed. 

 

Not necessarily.  If Mahomes continues being good, he'll want more money as the cap keeps increasing and other QBs start making more.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, ganesh said:

I believe our guys (the ones who matter and take football decisions) believe 110% in Josh Allen

 

Clearly, or they wouldn't have just offered the contract Allen just signed.

 

But the question to which I was responding was whether the Ravens and Browns fans would "trade their left and right nut" for Josh Allen.

 

I think a lot of their fans still believe in their guys and see Allen as a "1 Hit Wonder".  Do you disagree?

[HappyDays]

5 hours ago, snowbelt_subie said:

josh is not a one hit wonder but the biggest problem i see  with fans are they want to project a really good season and assume it will happen again.  i seen it with mahomes 50 TD season his next season he had 26 td's.

 

You're conflating good QB play with statistics. Mahomes was still an elite QB that 2nd season. I don't see any Bills fans definitively predicting that Allen's stats will be the same, just that his level of play will not drop off. I am actually hoping his per-game production drops a little bit because that means our defense and/or our running game took a step forward.

 

There is no evidence at all to think Allen is going to suddenly regress for the first time in his NFL career. I think there is actually some evidence that he will be an even better player this year.

Edited August 8, 2021 by HappyDays

[Shaw66]

10 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

He's not likely to be a one hit wonder, agreed.

 

 

 

This is a wild overreaction in trying to make Josh's first season look far better than it actually was. Josh did not play well that year, he just didn't. What he did was show that he had a ton of guts, that he would never quit, that he was a leader, and that he had flashes, including the ability to run far better than we had supposed he could. He was certainly NOT the only reason they won any games. And that's not an opinion, it's a stone-cold fact, unless you want to argue that our Week 10 41-10 win over the Jets was won entirely by Josh's cheering from the bench as Matt Barkley played QB the whole game.

 

"Those of us who actually watched the games know the only reason the Bills managed to win any games that year ..." is a phrase that makes absolutely zero sense that season or any other. It's a team game. There were many reasons we won a few games that year.

 

The main reason was that the defense was very good. Our six wins that year included a 13-12 win against Tennessee, a 14-13 win against the Lions, but more than that, in our 6 wins, only one time did the opposing team score more than 17 points, and in only two of those six wins did an opponent score more than 13 points. 

 

In those six games, our opponents scored a total of 79 points, an average of 13.2 PPG. That had an awful lot to do with many or most of those wins.

 

 

 

Like many Bills fans, you're being wildly oversensitive here.

 

After the second year, few were saying "Josh was still a bust," as you say.. A few trolls and curmudgeons here or there, sure. But most were saying that his major improvement, particularly in his accuracy, meant that he had a chance to be a good one, though he absolutely needed to continue to make serious improvement.

 

Did some still say he might be a bust? Yeah, it was still a reasonable possibility. Did some say they thought he would be a bust? Yeah, it was guessing, which is reasonable. But few were saying "Josh was still a bust," as if it was a fact. It simply didn't make much sense at that point. Yeah, there were a few ... who's that guy looks like a ferret with a hundred dollar haircut? Him, Domonique Foxworth, they were out there, but there were few of them.

 

There was still a possibility he wouldn't be the long-term franchise guy,  a decent possibility at the time, but his rate of improvement and the way he'd improved his accuracy meant there was also a very solid chance that he could be that franchise guy. That was the general opinion.

 

 

 

There may well be many fans on fan sites hoping this contract will turn out to be a bad decision for the Bills. Mostly simply because they'd rather see their team get a great QB than the Bills, that they'd rather see their team have a shot to reach SBs for a decade than the Bills. It's still possible, but that's not the way to bet. Last year was a revelation, a guy playing at an elite level.

 

The reaction around the league among the pundits has been wildly positive about this contract, and for good reason. It's a risk for both sides, but a good calculated one, for both sides. The consensus recognizes this.

 

 

 

 

This is good stuff, Thurm.   I don't agree completely - I'd say after year two the national media were more negative than they should have been.   Good football people, if they were watching, could see that Allen was on his way.   Too many were stuck in their negative first impression.   

 

But be that as it may, the positive reaction around the league means that most everyone around the league agrees that you have to pay that kind of money to get a QB who looks to be as good as Mahomes.   The only stupid thing the Bills could have done is let the season start without having a contract in place; people recognize that, and they're saying it's a good deal for the Bills because it locks up Allen.  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

They’re right, he did only have one good season.

 

Then he followed it up with an elite season. 

[ganesh]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Clearly, or they wouldn't have just offered the contract Allen just signed.

 

But the question to which I was responding was whether the Ravens and Browns fans would "trade their left and right nut" for Josh Allen.

 

I think a lot of their fans still believe in their guys and see Allen as a "1 Hit Wonder".  Do you disagree?

100% agree that those fans will always say that Allen is a  1-hit wonder.    They will always believe that their QB was the best from that draft.   I have seen many people (including myself) who has said that we (Bills) should never trade for Mahomes for Allen....we are fickle fans who wil support their QB to death