Why Josh Allen is not a "one hit wonder"

[machine gun kelly]

27 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

On my phone and don't want to work to find out but it reminds me of after his first season during the 2019 draft when they were talking about who was going to be the qb in the afc east that everyone was talking about. 

 

Mcshay said Darnold and Kiper said allen. 

 

Mcshay continued to belittle allen and kiper through the whole segment only to end with "that's fair, but it's not josh allen".

 

 

Found a crap version. 

 

 

 

And then this nice rant. 

 

 

The people that paid attention saw/see the potential. 

Thanks Wiz, but whenever I see these clips of Kiper it reminds me of this one..

 

 

Todd, Todd, Todd, Todd…

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Anytime I read or listen to an “I was wrong about Josh Allen speech”, whoever is giving said speech tries to justify their initial feelings based off year 1 and, more annoyingly, year 2…. It always chaps my a** when people bring up year 2 like Allen was awful. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more hate for a 2nd year qb that went for 10 wins, 3500 total yards and 29 total tds in 15 games. The guy had just 13 total turnovers and people acted like he was a turnover machine. It made absolutely no freaking sense. 

 

I’m sorry but if you just recite the normal “nobody could see it coming the first 2 seasons” bull crap I instantly wanna see you ran over by a semi. Laziest sporting take of the last couple years. When people still bring up Allen’s year 2 as justification for their initial feelings on him I basically still file them away into the idiot category, no matter if they changed their tune or not. 

 

Anyone who didn't see progress in Josh's 2nd season didn't watch him. That said, if their argument is "yea but you don't pay the kind of money the Bills paid to someone who played Josh Allen 2019 football" then they'd be right. I just don't really see the rationale for believing 2019 was the norm and 2020 the exception. If Josh had come out let's say in 2017 and played 2017, 18 and 19 at his 2019 level then suddenly had his 2020 season I'd be more sceptical. Because then 2020 is an anomaly. The reality with Josh Allen was he was very much still improving there was no sign of a plateu. It is entirely consistent with reason and logic based what was on the field to believe that the 2020 performance was the result of a kid who was still improving. Whether the numbers are the same, a bit better or a bit worse in 2021 I have zero concern about Josh Allen regressing. I don't see any reason to expect he would.

[NoHuddleKelly12]

Thanks OP, this should be required reading for all of the national media types you referenced—it would be a helpful cheat sheet for their hot takes! 

[Malazan]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

The Jets absolutely would

 

I'm honestly not sure about the Ravens and the Browns.  I think they still believe in the guys they've got, though of course I agree with you.  And it may just reinforce your point about rational thought.

 

The sentiment I've seen on the Browns boards was "yea, Baker's great despite his middle of the pack stats, but why don't wait and he see how he does this season even if it costs more?" which seems to be that they're not sure Baker's really a driving force on the team or a beneficiary of a stacked roster and 2 elite running backs running behind a really good line. 

 

Ravens just seemed to talk about how Allen wasn't worth it and that Lamar was gonna get more because of his mom. They didn't seem to really discuss whether Jackson was worthy of the contract. They seem to know he's going to get paid regardless. Also seems to be a secondary sentiment that they would love to wait and 'pay more' as well.

 

Seems like two teams (from a fan's perspective) that aren't sure they have a franchise QB for the next several years. 

 

The Jets are in that stage of utter fear that they could have another Darnold on their hands. They have serious conversations about Wilson being in the same tier as Rodgers, Allen, Mahomes. Literally, everything Zach does is the "best" or "That incompletion is so different than the ones Darnold threw". It's a "the lady doth protest too much" situation over there right now. 

Edited August 8, 2021 by jeremy2020

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The Jets absolutely would

 

I'm honestly not sure about the Ravens and the Browns.  I think they still believe in the guys they've got, though of course I agree with you.  And it may just reinforce your point about rational thought.

They'd both take Josh in a heartbeat.  Maybe not their fans, but no front office is confusing Mayfield for Allen.  They're going to pay them like Allen, though.  Enjoy being on the right side of the catch 22.

[ProcessTruster]

we'll know soon enough... 

 

go bills

[The Wiz]

20 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

Thanks Wiz, but whenever I see these clips of Kiper it reminds me of this one..

 

 

Todd, Todd, Todd, Todd…

It's still always good to have one of the blowhards on our side though. 

[Doc]

They'd all take Allen over their team's QB.  They just won't admit it.

[Warcodered]

24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I don't have any fear that Josh is a one hit wonder. I do, however, hate the farm boy narrative. That is as lazy in the other direction as the box score watchers who say QBs below 60% are never accurate.

 

Better lens to look at him is how he went from high-school to the NFL, kid was relentless in his belief in himself and drive to be great.

[Freddie's Dead]

2 hours ago, Inigo Montoya said:

I've spent a lot of time over the last 24 hours skulking around the message boards of the Jets, Browns, Ravens, and Pats reading what they thought about the extension.  There were a few who thought it was a good signing, but the overwhelming majority believed it was a terrible decision by the Bills.  The opinion repeated over and over on those boards was that Allen only played one good season and he really isn't as good as he played last year. 

 

There are two reasons why I believe Josh Allen isn't a "one hit wonder".  I think they are probably the same reasons why the Pegulas and McBeane felt comfortable hitching the future of this franchise to Josh Allen yesterday. 

 

The first reason is that last year's "break out" season for Josh Allen, while surprising to many in the League, was not as surprising to those of us who have watched every snap of Josh Allen's career.  Josh has always suffered from what I consider lazy journalism in the national sports media.  No one really watched his games, they just looked at the box scores and focused on Josh's early Hero Ball moments and that became the Josh Allen narrative.  It's the same narrative that these other fan bases have heard repeatedly and now believe.

 

The critics and pundits looked at Josh's rookie year stats and the Bills missing the playoffs and saw a horrible season for Josh, just like they predicted. Those of us who actually watched the games know the only reason the BIlls managed to win any games that year was because Josh put that terrible offense on his back and willed them to win.  He was the entire offense that year.  

 

During Josh's second season those same pundits saw the BIlls lose the Houston Wild Card game and looked at Josh's season stats and walked away thinking Josh was still a bust.  He had a completion percentage below 60% and you couldn't be a franchise QB if you weren't accurate or played Hero Ball all the time. Those of us who actually watched the games saw Josh improve in every single facet of his game that season.  Not only did his numbers improve, but we discovered that Josh was clutch.  Third and longs weren't automatic punts anymore.  Down a score in the 4th Quarter?  No worries... just give the ball back to Josh and he is going to find a way to score.  He had the most game winning drives in the League that year.  We saw that Josh had that "it factor" that all the greats possess.

 

Fast forward to last season when Josh blew up and had his breakout season.  Those of us who watched Josh closely thought a season like that was definitely possible where most everyone else still thought that Josh Allen was a bust.   That's why even today people say that it was Stefon Diggs that made Josh last year, or that the entire season was just a fluke.  I disagree.  The 2020 season was a huge leap forward for Josh Allen, no argument from me, but it didn't come out of nowhere.  It was the culmination of the previous two seasons where Josh kept getting better and better.   The reason it caught NFL pundits by surprise is because they just weren't paying attention to Josh before.  Last season wasn't a "one hit wonder" for Josh, it was just the next step in the development of a naturally gifted QB who was determined to be the best.

 

The second reason why I don't think last year was a "one hit wonder" season for Josh is that he has the character traits a person needs to be very successful.  He has a great work ethic, he is mature, and he is mentally tough.  That's a powerful combination in someone who is determined to be the best.

 

Josh grew up a farm kid, and like most farm kids, he learned at an early age how to work hard.  He has continued to work every off season to improve his game.  Is there anyone on TBD who thinks that if Josh Allen wins the Super Bowl this year that he won't be right back to work next off season trying to improve his game even more?  He has the work ethic to become great.  I don't think he is the type of person who will ever rest on his laurels or feel like he has finally "arrived".  

 

Josh's maturity makes him incredibly even keeled.  He doesn't allow the game to get him too high or too low.  He is the same person in every post game press conference.  They can win by 20 and the first thing he talks about is that he could have played better.  They can lose by 20 and he takes all the blame on his shoulders, even is he wasn't the reason the team lost.  Have you ever seen a Baker Mayfield press conference after a loss? He sits there and sulks like a 12 year old who just got grounded.  If you're going to be an NFL franchise QB, you'd better have the maturity to roll with the punches and manage the ups and downs that are going to come your way.  I think Josh has that.

 

The last important trait Josh has is mental toughness.  We all know Josh's JUCO story by now and I'm not going to rehash it.  It's obvious that Josh has always been behind the 8 ball leading up to his NFL career.  Even when he was finally considered a top NFL QB prospect coming out of Wyoming, he endured a level of scorn and ridicule that I just don't remember any other QB prospect receiving.  It only got worse after the Draft.  The criticism from pundits and the media was nasty, unrelenting, and personal.  It was so bad that I actually felt bad for Josh's parents.  In the face of that mountain of negative pressure Josh never blinked.  He didn't crumble under the ridicule, he shut out the noise and kept grinding.  The NFL and the media weren't too big for him.  He has shown that he can manage the mental rigors of being a franchise QB.  He's not going to crumble like Wentz did.

 

That's why I think last year wasn't just a "one hit wonder".  Josh is going to continue to improve like he has each season he has played.  He isn't going to suddenly become lazy and soft and complacent.  If Josh can stay healthy and Beane continues to put a reasonable roster around him, I'd be shocked if Josh Allen and the Bills don't win a Super Bowl in the next three years.  I don't think this contract is a mistake, I think it is a harbinger of great things to come.

 

 

 

Hello.  My name is Inigo Montoya.  You insulted Josh Allen.  Prepare to die.

 

All kidding aside, a superb polemic.  We have the best QB in the NFL, and they can't stand it.  They have to validate their ignorance by trashing the deal, while we know that we stole it.

[Warcodered]

58 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

On my phone and don't want to work to find out but it reminds me of after his first season during the 2019 draft when they were talking about who was going to be the qb in the afc east that everyone was talking about. 

 

Mcshay said Darnold and Kiper said allen. 

 

Mcshay continued to belittle allen and kiper through the whole segment only to end with "that's fair, but it's not josh allen".

 

 

Found a crap version. 

 

 

 

And then this nice rant. 

 

 

The people that paid attention saw/see the potential. 

Those guys talking about the situation around Lamar compared to Josh Allen annoy the crap out of me, he easily went into the best situation of any in that class except maybe Baker though he did have a better vet QB in the room ahead of him.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Warcodered said:

Better lens to look at him is how he went from high-school to the NFL, kid was relentless in his belief in himself and drive to be great.

 

Agree. Does his upbringing play a part in his drive? Yea I am sure it plays a part but Tom Brady was a middle class kid whose dad worked in insurance and he has more drive and determination than any player in history. Josh's drive is about more than the single factor of living on a farm.

[wjag]

This contract scaled according to the $$$s at the time in the Kelly era, would be pretty darn risky.  Why?  QBs used to get the snot beat out of them.  Hits to the head, hits to the knees, full blown blow ups by the DEs, body slams.  Not no more.  QBs are playing flag football these days while everyone else is playing tackle.  If Josh got hit like Kelly got hit, I doubt he would be in the league long based on his style of play.  But with the QB force protection rules enacted, we see QBs playing into their mid forties.  The fact that Buffalo structured it for maximum flexibility shows me, and soon the league, why Josh and the Bills are doing it right.  And in four years when the Jets QB comes up for his 5th year option and renewal, and the Jets are looking down the barrell of a 325+M contract, they'll look back on this contract and realize what a good contract it was for the team and the player.  If I am the Jets, I would be more worried about the contracts Lance, Burrows, Fields, Jones and Lawrence may get/will get and worry much more about their impact on Wilson's contract than what Josh Allen and Buffalo have done. 

 

I'd also say kudos to the Bills for getting this done before the season started.  Sure everyone says it didn't matter, but I think we all know it does and would.  It removes a potential distraction for the players and team and allows them to focus on the task at hand.  It does not surprise me it got done.  This FO just seems to do things right.  What an astonishing change after wandering the coaching, QB-ing, and GM-ing desert for what seems like most of my adult life.

Edited August 8, 2021 by wjag

[Jumpsuit Jim]

The “Make him prove it for one more year” is just the newest lazy narrative. However, it implies laziness amongst the coaches, like they can’t know what they have in Josh yet. 
 

However, the coaching staff has seen every snap Josh has taken in his professional career. The staff even called the plays. They knew how the play was designed and they knew whether or not Josh made a smart decision.

 

They have also seen (and designed) every practice Josh has been a part of as a professional footballer. They have watched him in every team meeting and film break down. They have watched him interact with his teammates in numerous situations. They have interacted closely with the trainers and coaches Josh works with during the off-season. 
 

What the heck can 17 more regular season games tell them one way or the other? And that is why I consider “one more year to make sure it wasn’t a fluke” to be oh so lazy. 

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

The Jets absolutely would

 

I'm honestly not sure about the Ravens and the Browns.  I think they still believe in the guys they've got, though of course I agree with you.  And it may just reinforce your point about rational thought.

I believe our guys (the ones who matter and take football decisions) believe 110% in Josh Allen

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

Better lens to look at him is how he went from high-school to the NFL, kid was relentless in his belief in himself and drive to be great.

Josh has been backed in the corner at every stage of his football career and he has delivered.  He is going through the same in the NFL and will do the same...succeed against the odds.  People betted against Tom Brady ever since he was a backup in Michigan.....He kept proving them wrong and continues to do this day.    Allen has the same mindset -  to go and be the best among the best....Go Bills

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said:

Anytime I read or listen to an “I was wrong about Josh Allen speech”, whoever is giving said speech tries to justify their initial feelings based off year 1 and, more annoyingly, year 2…. It always chaps my a** when people bring up year 2 like Allen was awful. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more hate for a 2nd year qb that went for 10 wins, 3500 total yards and 29 total tds in 15 games. The guy had just 13 total turnovers and people acted like he was a turnover machine. It made absolutely no freaking sense. 

 

I’m sorry but if you just recite the normal “nobody could see it coming the first 2 seasons” bull crap I instantly wanna see you ran over by a semi. Laziest sporting take of the last couple years. When people still bring up Allen’s year 2 as justification for their initial feelings on him I basically still file them away into the idiot category, no matter if they changed their tune or not. 

I agree with this.  You couldn't watch year one without seeing the potential. It was obvious.  And you couldn't watch year two without knowing that he was on his way.   If you watched and didn't see it, you were letting your own preconceptions get in the way.  He was really good in year two. 

 

The fact is that we may be biased but we know what we are seeing.  That's not a mirage we are seeing; that's a real human being doing things no on has seen before.  

Edited August 8, 2021 by Shaw66

[Putin]

4 hours ago, MJS said:

If any team should think Allen is the real deal, it's the Dolphins. Allen has owned them his entire career.

You could add Jets to that list as well 

[HappyDays]

You can break Allen's NFL career into 6 equal parts and every single part is better than the last. Reports out of training camp so far are that he's looking even more efficient than he did last year. It's been a constant ascension since he entered the league. Mayfield and Jackson have been up and down. There's really no comparison there at all.

 

Allen might have the most competitive drive and work ethic of any QB since Brady entered the league. It's arguably his most elite trait, even beyond the arm strength. The reason the Bills are comfortable betting on him now is because of Allen the person, not just Allen the player. We've heard all the stories. We've seen the work materialize on the field. That's something outside fans don't understand.

[MJS]

34 minutes ago, Putin said:

You could add Jets to that list as well 

The Jets have had some closer games and forced more turnovers vs Allen, though.

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, MJS said:

The Jets have had some closer games and forced more turnovers vs Allen, though.

He was under that witch's curse for the first half of the first game in 2019.