Why Josh Allen is not a "one hit wonder"

[Inigo Montoya]

I've spent a lot of time over the last 24 hours skulking around the message boards of the Jets, Browns, Ravens, and Pats reading what they thought about the extension.  There were a few who thought it was a good signing, but the overwhelming majority believed it was a terrible decision by the Bills.  The opinion repeated over and over on those boards was that Allen only played one good season and he really isn't as good as he played last year. 

 

There are two reasons why I believe Josh Allen isn't a "one hit wonder".  I think they are probably the same reasons why the Pegulas and McBeane felt comfortable hitching the future of this franchise to Josh Allen yesterday. 

 

The first reason is that last year's "break out" season for Josh Allen, while surprising to many in the League, was not as surprising to those of us who have watched every snap of Josh Allen's career.  Josh has always suffered from what I consider lazy journalism in the national sports media.  No one really watched his games, they just looked at the box scores and focused on Josh's early Hero Ball moments and that became the Josh Allen narrative.  It's the same narrative that these other fan bases have heard repeatedly and now believe.

 

The critics and pundits looked at Josh's rookie year stats and the Bills missing the playoffs and saw a horrible season for Josh, just like they predicted. Those of us who actually watched the games know the only reason the BIlls managed to win any games that year was because Josh put that terrible offense on his back and willed them to win.  He was the entire offense that year.  

 

During Josh's second season those same pundits saw the BIlls lose the Houston Wild Card game and looked at Josh's season stats and walked away thinking Josh was still a bust.  He had a completion percentage below 60% and you couldn't be a franchise QB if you weren't accurate or played Hero Ball all the time. Those of us who actually watched the games saw Josh improve in every single facet of his game that season.  Not only did his numbers improve, but we discovered that Josh was clutch.  Third and longs weren't automatic punts anymore.  Down a score in the 4th Quarter?  No worries... just give the ball back to Josh and he is going to find a way to score.  He had the most game winning drives in the League that year.  We saw that Josh had that "it factor" that all the greats possess.

 

Fast forward to last season when Josh blew up and had his breakout season.  Those of us who watched Josh closely thought a season like that was definitely possible where most everyone else still thought that Josh Allen was a bust.   That's why even today people say that it was Stefon Diggs that made Josh last year, or that the entire season was just a fluke.  I disagree.  The 2020 season was a huge leap forward for Josh Allen, no argument from me, but it didn't come out of nowhere.  It was the culmination of the previous two seasons where Josh kept getting better and better.   The reason it caught NFL pundits by surprise is because they just weren't paying attention to Josh before.  Last season wasn't a "one hit wonder" for Josh, it was just the next step in the development of a naturally gifted QB who was determined to be the best.

 

The second reason why I don't think last year was a "one hit wonder" season for Josh is that he has the character traits a person needs to be very successful.  He has a great work ethic, he is mature, and he is mentally tough.  That's a powerful combination in someone who is determined to be the best.

 

Josh grew up a farm kid, and like most farm kids, he learned at an early age how to work hard.  He has continued to work every off season to improve his game.  Is there anyone on TBD who thinks that if Josh Allen wins the Super Bowl this year that he won't be right back to work next off season trying to improve his game even more?  He has the work ethic to become great.  I don't think he is the type of person who will ever rest on his laurels or feel like he has finally "arrived".  

 

Josh's maturity makes him incredibly even keeled.  He doesn't allow the game to get him too high or too low.  He is the same person in every post game press conference.  They can win by 20 and the first thing he talks about is that he could have played better.  They can lose by 20 and he takes all the blame on his shoulders, even is he wasn't the reason the team lost.  Have you ever seen a Baker Mayfield press conference after a loss? He sits there and sulks like a 12 year old who just got grounded.  If you're going to be an NFL franchise QB, you'd better have the maturity to roll with the punches and manage the ups and downs that are going to come your way.  I think Josh has that.

 

The last important trait Josh has is mental toughness.  We all know Josh's JUCO story by now and I'm not going to rehash it.  It's obvious that Josh has always been behind the 8 ball leading up to his NFL career.  Even when he was finally considered a top NFL QB prospect coming out of Wyoming, he endured a level of scorn and ridicule that I just don't remember any other QB prospect receiving.  It only got worse after the Draft.  The criticism from pundits and the media was nasty, unrelenting, and personal.  It was so bad that I actually felt bad for Josh's parents.  In the face of that mountain of negative pressure Josh never blinked.  He didn't crumble under the ridicule, he shut out the noise and kept grinding.  The NFL and the media weren't too big for him.  He has shown that he can manage the mental rigors of being a franchise QB.  He's not going to crumble like Wentz did.

 

That's why I think last year wasn't just a "one hit wonder".  Josh is going to continue to improve like he has each season he has played.  He isn't going to suddenly become lazy and soft and complacent.  If Josh can stay healthy and Beane continues to put a reasonable roster around him, I'd be shocked if Josh Allen and the Bills don't win a Super Bowl in the next three years.  I don't think this contract is a mistake, I think it is a harbinger of great things to come.

 

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Inigo Montoya

[Malazan]

He's been good and improved 2 seasons in a row which kind of defeats the one hit wonder tag

Edited August 7, 2021 by jeremy2020

[MJS]

If any team should think Allen is the real deal, it's the Dolphins. Allen has owned them his entire career.

[Kwai San]

Great well thought out, well reasoned post Inigo.  I have to agree with all your thoughts.

 

I do not know how but I knew when the Bills picked him I KNEW he was gonna be good.  I was ridden like a 2 dollar pony after people saw me on a local TV station praising the pick when I was interviewed at my local watering hole in Rochester NY.  For some reason I just had the feeling he was it.

 

And?  He IS it!

 

Go Bills!!! 

[Virgil]

Every fan board you just mentioned would give their left and right nut for Allen.  Don’t confuse jealousy with rational thought.  
 

The Ravens and Browns are possibly about to pay their QBs similar money and that will be the same background and way less of a sure thing. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

Every fan board you just mentioned would give their left and right nut for Allen.  Don’t confuse jealousy with rational thought.  
The Ravens and Browns are possibly about to pay their QBs similar money and that will be the same background and way less of a sure thing. 

 

The Jets absolutely would

 

I'm honestly not sure about the Ravens and the Browns.  I think they still believe in the guys they've got, though of course I agree with you.  And it may just reinforce your point about rational thought.

[RobbRiddick]

The reason they think that is because they have this perception that Allen was hot garbage (this is a term I've heard a lot when people talk about him) his first 2 years.

 

The idea is that he was terrible for 2 seasons, then came out of nowhere with a great year and will therefore regress. Most Bills fans know different because we actually watch the games.

 

Earlier today I watched the highlights from his rookie year and was reminded about all the things I was thinking back then. Lots of lowlights as well, but the guy had a swagger and intensity from day one that the stat sheet couldn't show. He also improved consistently, then continued that trajectory during his second season, then obviously his third. 

 

And as I've said many times, people need to see who he was playing with on offense during his rookie year. Zay Jones, Benjamin, Deonte Thompson. Robert Foster, Vlad Ducasse, Russell Bodine, John Miller, Jordan Mills.

 

That line, with the exception of Dawkins, was horrific and yet the guy showed enough poise and potential that you could see he was going to be a really good one once he got more experience and a better supporting cast.

[wjag]

I honestly think JA17 became a national media reality when all these day time talking heads, night time fantasy football players (pundits playing in leagues) started noticing they were losing to him each week last year.  That’s when his profile starting coming up. He lead many fantasy leagues in points.  That’s what gets noticed by the rank and file. And it didn’t hurt that he was pretty  dang good on a four week stretch of national broadcast games last year. 

[machine gun kelly]

Grasshoppa, you’re problem is you went to those boards.  Jets, Fins, Pats boards baaad.  Bills board good.

 

Inigo my friend, you’re thread was so eloquently written, and honestly, I could care less what Jets, Pats, and Fins fans think as they will be looking up for the next decade, and they know it.   Delusional Pats fans are living in The past.

 

We have one of the best run teams in the NFL and much thanks to the Pegulas for getting it right the second time, and staying out of the way.  As long as we have McBeane and now Allen, the rest will take care of itself.

 

These foolish threads about any possible negative about this contract that have arisen the last 24 hours makes me consider the source.  What’s really the motivation?  They left enough $ that can later be converted if necessary, and that they locked him up for basically eight years as it’s not like the fourth and fifth year went away.  Allen is incredibly wealthy, but worked welll with Beane to maintain his flexibility over the next several years to deal with other contracts.

 

There are just a lot of shortsighted people who aren’t considering the explosion of tv revenue over the next 10 years.  As always Inigo, thank you for such a thoughtful thread.

 

Edited August 7, 2021 by machine gun kelly

[Shaw66]

Inigo -

 

Excellent!

 

Exactly!

 

Especially the first point.  It was obvious to me after year 2 what we had.  Actually, year 1, but needed year 2 to be sure.  

[TBBills]

You don't want those other fans to be happy for the contract... It would mean he is a bad player. They cheered when Fitz was awarded a contract with the Bills.

[Doc]

They think he's a 1-year wonder because there were no fans last year.  Ignoring the fact that no other non-established QB had nearly as good a season. 

[The Wiz]

On my phone and don't want to work to find out but it reminds me of after his first season during the 2019 draft when they were talking about who was going to be the qb in the afc east that everyone was talking about. 

 

Mcshay said Darnold and Kiper said allen. 

 

Mcshay continued to belittle allen and kiper through the whole segment only to end with "that's fair, but it's not josh allen".

 

 

Found a crap version. 

 

 

 

And then this nice rant. 

 

 

The people that paid attention saw/see the potential. 

[Stank_Nasty]

34 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Inigo -

 

Excellent!

 

Exactly!

 

Especially the first point.  It was obvious to me after year 2 what we had.  Actually, year 1, but needed year 2 to be sure.  

Anytime I read or listen to an “I was wrong about Josh Allen speech”, whoever is giving said speech tries to justify their initial feelings based off year 1 and, more annoyingly, year 2…. It always chaps my a** when people bring up year 2 like Allen was awful. I don’t think I’ve ever seen more hate for a 2nd year qb that went for 10 wins, 3500 total yards and 29 total tds in 15 games. The guy had just 13 total turnovers and people acted like he was a turnover machine. It made absolutely no freaking sense. 

 

I’m sorry but if you just recite the normal “nobody could see it coming the first 2 seasons” bull crap I instantly wanna see you ran over by a semi. Laziest sporting take of the last couple years. When people still bring up Allen’s year 2 as justification for their initial feelings on him I basically still file them away into the idiot category, no matter if they changed their tune or not. 

Edited August 7, 2021 by Stank_Nasty

[Ramza86]

Ill do it with bulletpoints

 

-Chip on his shoulder since college

-Smart

-Will do anything to win

-Very critical of himself (Wants to correct every wrong)

 

Ive seen Josh on interviews/podcasts telling the hosts that he would curse himself out for doing something wrong on the field. He absolutely hates playing poorly.

 

Hes gonna always try and be better than he was before.

 

 

[GoBills808]

One hit wonders don’t put up 4500 37/10. 

[LeGOATski]

Because the Firebaugh Kid is a DAWG.

 

He will fight everyone on that field.

 

Josh Allen coming into the NFL was Cool Hand Luke coming into the prison farm. If you don't respect him yet, you will soon enough. 

Edited August 8, 2021 by LeGOATski

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, machine gun kelly said:

Grasshoppa, you’re problem is you went to those boards.  Jets, Fins, Pats boards baaad.  Bills board good.

 

Inigo my friend, you’re thread was so eloquently written, and honestly, I could care less what Jets, Pats, and Fins fans think as they will be looking up for the next decade, and they know it.   Delusional Pats fans are living in The past.

 

We have one of the best run teams in the NFL and much thanks to the Pegulas for getting it right the second time, and staying out of the way.  As long as we have McBeane and now Allen, the rest will take care of itself.

 

These foolish threads about any possible negative about this contract that have arisen the last 24 hours makes me consider the source.  What’s really the motivation?  They left enough $ that can later be converted if necessary, and that they locked him up for basically eight years as it’s not like the fourth and fifth year went away.  Allen is incredibly wealthy, but worked welll with Beane to maintain his flexibility over the next several years to deal with other contracts.

 

There are just a lot of shortsighted people who aren’t considering the explosion of tv revenue over the next 10 years.  As always Inigo, thank you for such a thoughtful thread.

 

well done 

5 minutes ago, LeGOATski said:

Because the Firebaugh Kid is a DAWG.

 

He will fight everyone on that field.

 

Josh Allen coming into the NFL was Cool Hand Luke coming into the prison farm. If you don't respect him yet, you will soon enough. 

He makes a baller salad dressing 

[ghostwriter]

Very few of his TDS and big plays were flukey kind of plays, they were hard earned. He made very difficult throws routinely. 
 

This isn’t Lamar Jackson throwing 1 yd RPO plays on the goal line, this is Josh Allen threading the needle between sometimes 1, 2 or 3 defenders. 
 

Also the Erhardt Perkins Offense seems to be predicated on passing QBs. He seems to have full control, if not mastery over matchups in the secondary and by using the correct verbiage to audible his receivers into the right routes and positions.

 

Do I expect Josh Allen to throw for 5,000 yds and 50 TDS next year? No. It doesn’t work like that, pump the breaks. I do think every year for him moving forward will be very good in the eyes of players and coaches and fans in the NFL, but he is human. I am convinced that he will be considered one of the great ones when it’s all said and done and I do think he will get us a few Super Bowls by the time his career is over. Mahomes vs Allen will be the new Brady vs Manning. Kansas City ultimately is the only team that stands in our way.

[GunnerBill]

I don't have any fear that Josh is a one hit wonder. I do, however, hate the farm boy narrative. That is as lazy in the other direction as the box score watchers who say QBs below 60% are never accurate.