Where are the roster battles?

[GunnerBill]

Okay so I sat down and tried to write out my 53 last night for the first time this pre-season and I thought I'd summarise where I see the remaining roster battles:

 

Offense:

I think about 19 spots on offense are pretty much settled: Allen, Trubisky, Moss, Singletary, Brieda, Knox, Hollister, Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie, Dawkins, Ford, Morse, Feliciano, Williams, Boettger and Brown. I'd be very surprised at this stage if any of those 19 do not make the team (injury permitting of course). That leaves 5 to 6 spots up for grabs. They will certainly carry at least 8 offensive linemen and I would give Ryan Bates the inside track on that next spot as he has been here, knows the system and is cheap. I think Reggie Gilliam as the only possible full back, and as a key special teamer (they love him inside on kick coverage and as a wing protector on punts) is also more likely than not to seal a spot. That takes you to 21 and leaves you with 3 or 4 spots remaining. 

 

The 22nd spot comes down to who their starting gunners are on kick off and punt coverage. Siran Neal is a pretty safe bet to retain his spot on one side (more of him to come) but the other side is interesting. Taiwan Jones is the man in possession and Beane spoke glowingly of him again last week. That said, the Bills have tried Brieda at that spot some in camp and Jake Kumerow - who did it when Jones missed time last year. If their calculation is that they can get close to Jones production from either of those two guys it would open up some options. It would certainly seal Kumerow's spot as the 6th receiver (a battle I think he is already comfortably leading) if he wins the gunner job but it might open up a 7th roster spot at receiver at the expense of the extra running back if they don't want to risk exposing Hodgins or Stevenson to waivers. If either of those two ball out in pre-season or Stevenson pops as a returner that becomes a real option. If they decide Brieda is their guy then I would expect them to still carry a 4th running back (because gunner is a high impact position liable to result in injuries) but it might make Antonio Williams a more likely bet than Taiwan Jones. So that 22nd spot comes down to Jones, Kumerow or Antonio Williams. 

 

The 23rd spot is the back end of the receiver battle. I know some people think Isaiah McKenzie is not yet safe and there are two spots to shoot at here but he is having a nice camp by all reports, is leading the returner battle by some distance and the way Brian Daboll talked about him a couple of days ago I find it almost impossible at this point to believe he wouldn't be a guy Dabes bangs the table for when the rubber hits the road. So that final place comes down in my mind to Kumerow, Hodgins and Stevenson (sorry Duke Williams fans). If Kumerow is already in as a gunner then Hodgins and Stevenson have a real shot... but if they just end up with 6 receivers I think early returns suggest Kumerow is at the head of the race. The other two need to make an impression when the games start. 

 

The 24th and 25th spot likely comes down to a 9th lineman and a 3rd tight end. The history of this regime tells us the Bills like to keep tight ends. Even though it has been a comparatively weak position since McDermott and Beane arrived here they kept 4 in 2017, 3 in 2018, 4 in 2019 and 4 (including Gilliam as a TE) in 2020. If it was me I'd just keep Knox, Hollister and Gilliam as a FB/TE but I suspect the Bills will lean towards keeping 3 plus Gilliam and so Tommy Sweeney would appear to have a path to a roster spot. That means one OL spot to fight for between Bobby Hart, Forrest Lamp, Jordan Devey, Tommy Doyle, Jack Anderson and maybe Caleb Benenoch. My gut instinct is they would go with a tackle and Bobby Hart has been getting reps on the left side in Dawkins's absence and is a vet so I'd make him slight favourite. If Jack Anderson, drafted this year, has a really good camp and pre-season and the Bills don't want to expose him to waivers them I think it would be at the expense of that final tight end spot and maybe they'd figure Sweeney - a 7th round pick three years ago with very little on tape - is easier to sneak through to the Practice Squad. Of course they could decide to save a spot on offense and only have 24 in which case the 3rd tight end and 9th lineman are battling for one spot.

 

Defense:

So same process on defense... start with the certainties. I get to 17: Star, Oliver, Hughes, Rousseau, Basham, Epenesa, Edmunds, Milano, Matakevich, White, Wallace, Jackson, T. Johnson, Neal, Hyde, Poyer and J. Johnson. 

 

I'll start at the back end of the defense to work out where the battles are. The 18th spot on defense will certainly go to a defensive back and almost certainly to a safety. They have categorised Siran Neal as a safety in the past but in recent years they have very much counted him as a nickel corner as well as his role as primary gunner so I am including him as a corner meaning I have only three safeties on my certainty list. There are currently only two other safeties on the roster - Josh Thomas a second year player who was an UDFA and spent last season on the practice squad and Damar Hamlin who the Bills spent a draft pick on so I give Hamlin and advantage there. 

 

Then for the 19th and 20th spots you look at linebacker. I only have 3 certainties and they will keep 5 minimum. AJ Klein remains the clubhouse leader for the 19th spot as the primary back up. He is by far the most experienced of the backup options, his game improved down the stretch last year once they had worked out how to use this significantly less athletic version of AJ Klein than the one they remembered in Carolina but he isn't a certainty because his special teams snaps generally trended down last year (and not totally consistently with his defensive snaps increasing either) an he would save them $1.2m on the cap if they cut him. He is a sneaky possibility for the surprise cut, but for now I'll give him the 19th spot. His biggest competition is Tyrell Adams, who is a solid vet who has had some success in the league in Houston. He was a core special teamer for the Texans as a backup linebacker before winning a starting job mid-way through last season and I suspect that combination of ST ace, experience as a starter and vet minimum salary makes him the 20th guy. That would mean Andre Smith - another former Panther - who made the roster for special teams contributions last year likely misses out. 

 

The 21st and 22nd spots are almost certainly defensive tackles. I'd be shocked if the Bills keep less than four given how much they like to rotate their line. Vernon Butler actually costs them money to release at this point after the pay cut and so unless he really struggles in camp and pre-season he likely makes the team. Harrison Phillips was on the bubble for much of last season after being benched for a couple of games and struggling to find any consistency in his performances. However, he bounced back nicely at the end of the year and I am told has looked decent and in better physical shape in camp. I give those two the clear edge over Justin Zimmer who played about as well as the Bills could have expected last year but is a marginal talent at the NFL level. 

 

That leaves them three spots on defense to fill and it basically comes down to who do you want to keep. The contenders are three defensive ends: Mario Addison, Efe Obada and Daryl Johnson; three linbackers: Andre Smith, Tyrel Dodson and Joe Giles-Harris; and two defensive backs: Rachad Wildgoose and Cam Lewis. I think most people still expect Addison to make it. They like his vet leadership, he knows the scheme and he took a pay cut to be here. But he still saves them $2.2m on the cap this year if they cut him, his play has definitely been on the decline for two years and the Bills have great depth at that spot. Efe Obada was less of a "name" free agent but he gives the Bills a real speed off the edge that beyond Hughes is a bit lacking in their group and, critically, he plays special teams which might be vital if (as many expect) Daryl Johnson who has een a core special teamer the past two years misses out. If the Bills go with two defensive ends I suspect that means all three linebackers miss the cut as I think Rachad Wildgoose will make this roster if healthy. I suspect the Bills are looking ahead to next spring when Taron Johnson will likely get one of the richer nickel corner contracts in the league as a free agent and starting to look at replacement options. Their current backup is Siran Neal (also a FA after the season) so look for Wildgoose to stick as a guy they daren't expose to waivers for future planning reasons. If the Bills take the tough call to cut either Addison or Obada (I suspect it would be Addison but let's see) then the question becomes do the Bills retain Tyrel Dodson who they have generally invested some faith in or does Daryl Johnson's likely cut make them feel they need Andre Smith as an additional special teams contributor?

 

 

[Kwai San]

Excellent write up and very well thought out.  TFS!

[DJB]

I'm thinking starting QB 

[snafu]

They’re going to leave some good talent behind. 
What a nice problem to have. 
 

[Rochesterfan]

I love the breakdown and think you have it exactly right.  The only few things I will add is if the reports of the expanded practice squad are correct along with the added veteran spaces - I wonder if that has some impact to decisions.  We saw last year - the Bills were not afraid to have some veteran “name” players on the PS as protection and they were not afraid to use the call-ups to get some guys into the lineup as needed.  
 

The Bills have CAP space and I wonder if a couple of veterans like Addison and Butler might accept a cut and resign to the PS as a way to stay with the team, but allow the young guys a place on the roster.  That allows a few call ups to make sure you have the experience, but protects the youth.

 

Same thing may go for Hollister if his back takes a bit to get on the field - maybe stick around as a safety net and we will work with you.  
 

The final spot I could see getting some PS love from a veteran would be OL - maybe a Bobby Hart works with the Bills on a cut and resign to the PS as a safety net to allow the team to keep a younger guy, but provide veteran  protections.  
 

It depends upon how much better/how close some of these battles are, but I could definitely see a few veterans decide that sticking with a potential SB team as a PS player this year could be a helpful move instead of being outright cut.

Edited August 5, 2021 by Rochesterfan

[John from Riverside]

Couldn’t sleep gunner?

[machine gun kelly]

I’ll take a look tonight GB,  but knowing you it’s as thoughtful and thorough as a rock pile review, or in no particular order posts.  Thanks in advance for you’re prep.

[Virgil]

I’m going to be honest, I’m too tired to read all of that.  I think we are finally in a a position to make trades and acquire picks for some of the talent we will shed.  
 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we traded/cut some “names” on offensive line.  With the way they are bringing people in, I think Beane is debating value vs cap.  

[machine gun kelly]

4 minutes ago, Virgil said:

I’m going to be honest, I’m too tired to read all of that.  I think we are finally in a a position to make trades and acquire picks for some of the talent we will shed.  
 

I wouldn’t be surprised if we traded/cut some “names” on offensive line.  With the way they are bringing people in, I think Beane is debating value vs cap.  

Slacker! 😇🤪😜🏋️‍♂️🦬

[IgotBILLStopay]

54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay so I sat down and tried to write out my 53 last night for the first time this pre-season and I thought I'd summarise where I see the remaining roster battles:

 

Offense:

I think about 19 spots on offense are pretty much settled: Allen, Trubisky, Moss, Singletary, Brieda, Knox, Hollister, Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis, McKenzie, Dawkins, Ford, Morse, Feliciano, Williams, Boettger and Brown. I'd be very surprised at this stage if any of those 19 do not make the team (injury permitting of course). That leaves 5 to 6 spots up for grabs. They will certainly carry at least 8 offensive linemen and I would give Ryan Bates the inside track on that next spot as he has been here, knows the system and is cheap. I think Reggie Gilliam as the only possible full back, and as a key special teamer (they love him inside on kick coverage and as a wing protector on punts) is also more likely than not to seal a spot. That takes you to 21 and leaves you with 3 or 4 spots remaining. 

 

The 22nd spot comes down to who their starting gunners are on kick off and punt coverage. Siran Neal is a pretty safe bet to retain his spot on one side (more of him to come) but the other side is interesting. Taiwan Jones is the man in possession and Beane spoke glowingly of him again last week. That said, the Bills have tried Brieda at that spot some in camp and Jake Kumerow - who did it when Jones missed time last year. If their calculation is that they can get close to Jones production from either of those two guys it would open up some options. It would certainly seal Kumerow's spot as the 6th receiver (a battle I think he is already comfortably leading) if he wins the gunner job but it might open up a 7th roster spot at receiver at the expense of the extra running back if they don't want to risk exposing Hodgins or Stevenson to waivers. If either of those two ball out in pre-season or Stevenson pops as a returner that becomes a real option. If they decide Brieda is their guy then I would expect them to still carry a 4th running back (because gunner is a high impact position liable to result in injuries) but it might make Antonio Williams a more likely bet than Taiwan Jones. So that 22nd spot comes down to Jones, Kumerow or Antonio Williams. 

 

The 23rd spot is the back end of the receiver battle. I know some people think Isaiah McKenzie is not yet safe and there are two spots to shoot at here but he is having a nice camp by all reports, is leading the returner battle by some distance and the way Brian Daboll talked about him a couple of days ago I find it almost impossible at this point to believe he wouldn't be a guy Dabes bangs the table for when the rubber hits the road. So that final place comes down in my mind to Kumerow, Hodgins and Stevenson (sorry Duke Williams fans). If Kumerow is already in as a gunner then Hodgins and Stevenson have a real shot... but if they just end up with 6 receivers I think early returns suggest Kumerow is at the head of the race. The other two need to make an impression when the games start. 

 

The 24th and 25th spot likely comes down to a 9th lineman and a 3rd tight end. The history of this regime tells us the Bills like to keep tight ends. Even though it has been a comparatively weak position since McDermott and Beane arrived here they kept 4 in 2017, 3 in 2018, 4 in 2019 and 4 (including Gilliam as a TE) in 2020. If it was me I'd just keep Knox, Hollister and Gilliam as a FB/TE but I suspect the Bills will lean towards keeping 3 plus Gilliam and so Tommy Sweeney would appear to have a path to a roster spot. That means one OL spot to fight for between Bobby Hart, Forrest Lamp, Jordan Devey, Tommy Doyle, Jack Anderson and maybe Caleb Benenoch. My gut instinct is they would go with a tackle and Bobby Hart has been getting reps on the left side in Dawkins's absence and is a vet so I'd make him slight favourite. If Jack Anderson, drafted this year, has a really good camp and pre-season and the Bills don't want to expose him to waivers them I think it would be at the expense of that final tight end spot and maybe they'd figure Sweeney - a 7th round pick three years ago with very little on tape - is easier to sneak through to the Practice Squad. Of course they could decide to save a spot on offense and only have 24 in which case the 3rd tight end and 9th lineman are battling for one spot.

 

Defense:

So same process on defense... start with the certainties. I get to 17: Star, Oliver, Hughes, Rousseau, Basham, Epenesa, Edmunds, Milano, Matakevich, White, Wallace, Jackson, T. Johnson, Neal, Hyde, Poyer and J. Johnson. 

 

I'll start at the back end of the defense to work out where the battles are. The 18th spot on defense will certainly go to a defensive back and almost certainly to a safety. They have categorised Siran Neal as a safety in the past but in recent years they have very much counted him as a nickel corner as well as his role as primary gunner so I am including him as a corner meaning I have only three safeties on my certainty list. There are currently only two other safeties on the roster - Josh Thomas a second year player who was an UDFA and spent last season on the practice squad and Damar Hamlin who the Bills spent a draft pick on so I give Hamlin and advantage there. 

 

Then for the 19th and 20th spots you look at linebacker. I only have 3 certainties and they will keep 5 minimum. AJ Klein remains the clubhouse leader for the 19th spot as the primary back up. He is by far the most experienced of the backup options, his game improved down the stretch last year once they had worked out how to use this significantly less athletic version of AJ Klein than the one they remembered in Carolina but he isn't a certainty because his special teams snaps generally trended down last year (and not totally consistently with his defensive snaps increasing either) an he would save them $1.2m on the cap if they cut him. He is a sneaky possibility for the surprise cut, but for now I'll give him the 19th spot. His biggest competition is Tyrell Adams, who is a solid vet who has had some success in the league in Houston. He was a core special teamer for the Texans as a backup linebacker before winning a starting job mid-way through last season and I suspect that combination of ST ace, experience as a starter and vet minimum salary makes him the 20th guy. That would mean Andre Smith - another former Panther - who made the roster for special teams contributions last year likely misses out. 

 

The 21st and 22nd spots are almost certainly defensive tackles. I'd be shocked if the Bills keep less than four given how much they like to rotate their line. Vernon Butler actually costs them money to release at this point after the pay cut and so unless he really struggles in camp and pre-season he likely makes the team. Harrison Phillips was on the bubble for much of last season after being benched for a couple of games and struggling to find any consistency in his performances. However, he bounced back nicely at the end of the year and I am told has looked decent and in better physical shape in camp. I give those two the clear edge over Justin Zimmer who played about as well as the Bills could have expected last year but is a marginal talent at the NFL level. 

 

That leaves them three spots on defense to fill and it basically comes down to who do you want to keep. The contenders are three defensive ends: Mario Addison, Efe Obada and Daryl Johnson; three linbackers: Andre Smith, Tyrel Dodson and Joe Giles-Harris; and two defensive backs: Rachad Wildgoose and Cam Lewis. I think most people still expect Addison to make it. They like his vet leadership, he knows the scheme and he took a pay cut to be here. But he still saves them $2.2m on the cap this year if they cut him, his play has definitely been on the decline for two years and the Bills have great depth at that spot. Efe Obada was less of a "name" free agent but he gives the Bills a real speed off the edge that beyond Hughes is a bit lacking in their group and, critically, he plays special teams which might be vital if (as many expect) Daryl Johnson who has een a core special teamer the past two years misses out. If the Bills go with two defensive ends I suspect that means all three linebackers miss the cut as I think Rachad Wildgoose will make this roster if healthy. I suspect the Bills are looking ahead to next spring when Taron Johnson will likely get one of the richer nickel corner contracts in the league as a free agent and starting to look at replacement options. Their current backup is Siran Neal (also a FA after the season) so look for Wildgoose to stick as a guy they daren't expose to waivers for future planning reasons. If the Bills take the tough call to cut either Addison or Obada (I suspect it would be Addison but let's see) then the question becomes do the Bills retain Tyrel Dodson who they have generally invested some faith in or does Daryl Johnson's likely cut make them feel they need Andre Smith as an additional special teams contributor?

 

 

I dont think Breida, Hollister, Johnson and Matakevich are locks yet. I agree about the other locks. I too thought it was a near certainty that Addison would be cut - but vibes outa OBD appear to indicate he may be safe - it is still early though - and there will likely be an injury or two before the roster cut down.

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

I dont think Breida, Hollister, Johnson and Matakevich are locks yet. I agree about the other locks. I too thought it was a near certainty that Addison would be cut - but vibes outa OBD appear to indicate he may be safe - it is still early though - and there will likely be an injury or two before the roster cut down.

 

Matakevich is absolutely a lock. He is the lockiest lock. He is their special teams ace and they extended him in the spring. He is going nowhere. I have moved Brieda into that category the last few days as a result of listening to Beane and Daboll. I very strongly got the sense from both that they have a specific role in mind for him. Hollister and J.Johnson I do get a bit, but the point there is the lack of alternatives. They are all but certain because there is not the same competition at those spots. Of course they could bring people in from outside but even if they do I think there are other people whose roles would be more immediately under threat.  

[Gugny]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay so I sat down and tried to write out my 53 last night for the first time this pre-season and I thought I'd summarise where I see the remaining roster battles:

 

Can you please re-write your original post in a more bulleted format?  It would be a lot easier on my eyes.  Thanks!

[Malazan]

1 hour ago, DJB said:

I'm thinking starting QB 

 

Finally moving Josh to his natural position at RB

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

Can you please re-write your original post in a more bulleted format?  It would be a lot easier on my eyes.  Thanks!

 

I think your eyes rather than my beautiful prose is the problem. 

[Bray Wyatt]

I would hope they keep Dodson for LB depth. Esp with Milano's injury history. 

[The Wiz]

1 hour ago, snafu said:

They’re going to leave some good talent behind. 
What a nice problem to have. 
 

Gonna miss those Da'Rick and Duke Williams threads

[IgotBILLStopay]

56 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Matakevich is absolutely a lock. He is the lockiest lock. He is their special teams ace and they extended him in the spring. He is going nowhere. I have moved Brieda into that category the last few days as a result of listening to Beane and Daboll. I very strongly got the sense from both that they have a specific role in mind for him. Hollister and J.Johnson I do get a bit, but the point there is the lack of alternatives. They are all but certain because there is not the same competition at those spots. Of course they could bring people in from outside but even if they do I think there are other people whose roles would be more immediately under threat.  

You are totally right about Matakevich. I forgot about the Bills extending him. He is a lock. Based on Farwell comments today, Gilliam and Bam Johnson may also be locks for the roster based on ST prowess.

[MWK]

1 minute ago, IgotBILLStopay said:

You are totally right about Matakevich. I forgot about the Bills extending him. He is a lock. Based on Farwell comments today, Gilliam and Bam Johnson may also be locks for the roster based on ST prowess.

How many special teams only players do we need? Including the 3 specialists (obviously) and Matakevich, if we keep those two we will have 6 special teams only players on the team. And that doesn't even consider Taiwan Jones and Andre Smith, who are also likely to make the roster, putting us at 8. We don't need 5 guys who can't actually play their listed positions. Johnson making the roster over someone like Obada or Zimmer would be a big mistake. Johnson has shown next to nothing as a defensive end. 

[No_Matter_What]

I'd say that bolding something (probably numbers) would help your text to be more readable Gunner.

 

To the point: after reading camp reports, I'd say Obada is almost a lock and Daryll Johnson won't make 53. There just isn't any way how to sneak him in.

 

I wonder how it is really with Addison, i.e. if there is a chance for him to be cut after he took paycut. I mean I know its business but I still wonder if Beane can cut him from personal point of view.

[Don Otreply]

Gunner, nice write up, I would agree with your thoughts, very realistic, imo, if it came down to Effe or Addison, Addison will get the axe as it were, even with his taking a pay cut, business is business when your goal is a championship.  There may be a coupe of trades for late draft picks, but a lot of reasonable talent is going to be cut this year,