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Where Did NFL Coaches & Evaluators Place Josh Allen Among QB Tiers?


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9 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said:

As well as the primary reason they went 13-3 and earned the #2 seed in the conference. Which leads me to my one big gripe of which tier he is in. Tier 2 was defined as somebody that can occasionally carry their team and be the reason they win. Riding Josh Allen is primary reason the Bills were 15-4 and a game away from the Super Bowl. You don’t have to be an NFL exec or coach on this voting panel to have noticed that. It was extremely obvious. 
 

Think I saw a graph in which Allen accounted for a higher % of his teams years and TD’s than any other qb…. Sorry that’s not carrying the team occasionally. That’s your team occasionally helping you out on the way to a 13-3 romp. 

 

There is a point about performing at that level for a longer time.  But other than that, it seems like the people doing the “tiering” pre-defined the number in each tier, instead of collecting opinions and then making tier divisions according to the observed clusters.

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22 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

The D had a great showing in the AFC divisional round(the ridiculous wind gusts and the Ravens being completely one dimensional helped) but I don’t recall any other “epic” defensive games over the course of last season. Maybe the Steelers game? 
 

Either way, Bills lose the Colts game without Josh Allen(and help from Philip Rivers)putting the entire team on his back and carrying them to victory.

 

The Steelers game was good.  But my phrase was "epic stands" not "epic games".    I had the Colts game in mind.

1Q: 1st and 10 from the Buf 15, stuffed runs for 1 and 2 yds and pass for no gain

2Q: 1st and goal from the Buf 4, stuffed runs for 2 yds, 1 yds, -3 yds, INC pass

3Q: 1st and 10 from the Buf 18, 3 yds, INC pass, INC pass, FGA (No good)

 

The passes were well defended or made less accurate through pressure.

 

One can make the point that if the B'lo D had been less porous, they wouldn't have been defending their own red zone so much, but anyone fair must acknowledge they put up some tough, tough stands there.

 

So absolutely without Josh, No Way we win that game but we also don't win without key defensive contributions at key times.  Rivers didn't play a bad game, 309 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT.  He wasn't great in some key moments, but the Bills D had a lot to do with that.

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On 7/28/2021 at 8:50 AM, JohnNord said:

For those interested, the Tier 1 QB’s along with the vote count were:

 

1. Aaron Rogers (50)

2. Patrick Mahomes (50)

3. Tom Brady (41,9)

4. Russell Wilson (40,10)

5. DeShaun Watson (26,23,1)

 

 

Good.  Keep JA17 hungry and dissed.  Actually six ain't bad.  Hard to argue with the list.  Watson had a down year and has a dark cloud following his season.  Could have been 5...   

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  • 2 weeks later...


 

Little more discussion about Allen and his tier status. Personally I still think if the definition of tier 1 is carrying your team then Allen needs to be in by default. IMO there wasn’t a single team that relied on one single player like the Bills relied on Allen. 

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It's an interesting idea: get a bunch of NFL insiders to rate QBs.   But this approach has limitations.  For example, how much does the Giants OC really know about Allen?  Or the personnel guy at the Falcons who oversees college scouting? 

 

These guys don't watch every game of every team.

 

I'm sure everyone one of the coaches and execs polled know more about the NFL than I do.  But I think most of us on this board know more about Josh Allen.  

 

  

 

 

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2 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

It's an interesting idea: get a bunch of NFL insiders to rate QBs.   But this approach has limitations.  For example, how much does the Giants OC really know about Allen?  Or the personnel guy at the Falcons who oversees college scouting? 

 

These guys don't watch every game of every team.

 

I'm sure everyone one of the coaches and execs polled know more about the NFL than I do.  But I think most of us on this board know more about Josh Allen.  

 

  

 

 

I dunno if this is relevant, but something that bothers me is that no one really seems to take Josh's mental makeup into account. I'm not going to say he faced Brady level adversity in his early career, but he has that same mentality that made Brady the QB he is and still going at 44. Josh's competitive drive is possibly unmatched in the NFL. He's intelligent. He's coachable. He is one of the most physically gifted QBs of all time.

 

Tons of players break under the pressure and scrutiny Josh has had to endure, and he's simply thrived under it. Combine everything and I honestly think at the end of this season, we'll be asking whether Josh has surpassed Mahomes.

 

Might be a homer take, though. He'll never be satisfied being second best at anything.

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Professional coaches and evaluators know a lot more than we fans, but I think maybe their opinions are frequently reflective of conventional notions that adhere to the laws of averages, and that are essentially inaccurate or even lazy takes. Some of the comments reflect that to me. These people are also very busy micromanaging performance evaluations for their own teams and players. I tend to doubt that their insights are necessarily more valid than those of some fans of a particular team who mull over pretty much all of a player’s snaps over the course of a season.

I think many of us as Bills fans now know better than most just how prodigious a talent Allen is with room to grow. They can position Brady, Wilson and others ahead of him if they like but if I were putting together my dream team from scratch today the only other QB that would IMO be as desirable as Allen is Mahomes. I wouldn’t take any of those other guys before JA. One reason being that I believe Allen has more room to grow while the others have already levelled off or already are in decline (Brady) and I wonder how many years Arod has left to play at last year’s level.

Edited by starrymessenger
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I don't think most NFL coaches and talent evaluators are gamblers.  By nature, they like to play it safe whenever they can.  Josh Allen's occasional hero ball tendencies and high risk plays scare them.   I think Josh himself will become a bit more careful as he gains experience.  That will gain him the consistency to get into the top tier of that particular survey.  I think he's top three in the league in terms of actual talent, skill set and athleticism.

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On 7/28/2021 at 8:53 AM, ProcessAccepted said:

Thanks for posting. Good read even if I know these rankings do not really mean anything.

 

What I always find perplexing is how some of these guys place so much emphasis on one play for one player (JA's "30-yard sack (18 yards)") and nothing about Wilson's red zone interception against the Bills. JA is a guy who takes risks and granted some don't work out but the "wow plays" are far more plentiful.

 

 

 

True, but I think he was referencing how in all 3 games he didn't look like he did in the regular season leading up to it. There were many opportunities, but the offense as a whole (not just JA) never really clicked, and that sack risked knocking us out of the playoffs entirely... Throwing a pick or taking a sack suck, but doing it in a big game & doing it in a spectacularly bad way stand out more than a simple regular season INT. 

 

I'm not saying this to rag on Allen, if anything it just shows he's still young & despite how good he looked, he can still get even better. That's amazing. But the blatantly obvious things like that sack (or pitching the ball in the Houston playoff game after a long run) stand out more. I get it's not fun to reflect on those things, but they're not your regular run-in-the-mill mistakes. It'd be like if Mahomes tried no-look-passing into triple coverage & it lead to a pick-6. At that point, you can only blame yourself.

 

Really not trying to pile on, I just understand the skepticism that wouldn't put him in the same class as Tom Brady. He's just not there yet, but it doesn't mean I wouldn't take him over Brady 7 days a week. He's going to get better, the game is slowing down for him, and each season he's relying less & less on his running abilities & more on his passing. That's a good sign.

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On 8/10/2021 at 7:49 AM, Stank_Nasty said:


 

Little more discussion about Allen and his tier status. Personally I still think if the definition of tier 1 is carrying your team then Allen needs to be in by default. IMO there wasn’t a single team that relied on one single player like the Bills relied on Allen. 

I laugh at the way he kept talking about the 18 yard sack.

 

Not like it was a 30 yard sack ala Mahomes.

 

 

 

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