Lean and Mean, or No? [thread about Bills Defense]

[Don Otreply]

On 7/22/2021 at 9:32 PM, P Riv said:

 

What changed?  The Steelers have been talking about getting back to the run game, balance, etc. all offseason.  Then they drafted Najee Harris with pick 24, 6'2' 230lbs, 4.45 sec 40. type of guy.  I'd say their planning to run it, a lot.   There's that and also the fact that they don't lack talent and were averaging over 30 points a game before injuries, etc. caught up to them after starting 11-0.  

 

A rookie running back and a big question mark on the QB and O line isn’t gonna move the needle very much for the Steelers,  on the Bills behalf, having the entire starting receiver group injured for the playoffs was a rather large part of our post season demise, yes there were other contributing issues, ie;  D line penetration, and the rather dismal run game when it was its number was called, but the receiver room being decimated with injury was easily the biggest problem, that and the overall game plan, (imo they coached scared) I would bet that the coaching staff understands that failure and has, shall we say, “grown” from the experience, we won’t be the same team we were last season, we will be better, anyway that’s my view, we shall see. 

[Eastport bills]

On 7/21/2021 at 5:41 PM, Shaw66 said:

I saw the title and thought this would be a thread about the defense - Lean and mean, or no?

 

In fact, I think that IS the question about the defense.  It's a defense, physically and in terms of style, that's designed be tough to pin down - really quick off the ball, attacking in multi-faceted ways, and quick to the ball.  To play that way, they will be short on bulk.  They aren't going have many immovable objects on the field.   

 

The question is whether they'll be mean enough.  Whether they come out every weekend with enough fight in them to over come what might be size and strength disadvantages at certain matchups.  They'll be smart and well coached.  Will they be scrappy?

They got pushed around vs KC, Indy, Tenn and LA. They're light in the pants. Star will give them something but big O-lines will have their way with them. Edmunds and Milano are fast and smart but not overly physical. Your assessment is spot on. Beane can bring in Short or someone who gets cut for cap reasons. Hopefully we bring in some girth.

 

[P Riv]

15 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

A rookie running back and a big question mark on the QB and O line isn’t gonna move the needle very much for the Steelers,  on the Bills behalf, having the entire starting receiver group injured for the playoffs was a rather large part of our post season demise, yes there were other contributing issues, ie;  D line penetration, and the rather dismal run game when it was its number was called, but the receiver room being decimated with injury was easily the biggest problem, that and the overall game plan, (imo they coached scared) I would bet that the coaching staff understands that failure and has, shall we say, “grown” from the experience, we won’t be the same team we were last season, we will be better, anyway that’s my view, we shall see. 

 

I checked 2021 O-line ranks and I didn't realize that Pittsburgh was ranked near the bottom.  No wonder Big Ben got leaner and "faster", he may be running for his life.  Maybe that 11-0 start last year was a mirage.

[Thurman#1]

On 7/23/2021 at 9:55 PM, P Riv said:

 

A sloppy game for sure, NE had 4 turnovers and were within one score early in the 4th.  Whenever they play Mahomes they are able to hold the Chiefs down better than anyone else (aside from TB obviously).  So what's the deal with that?  Its obviously scheme, so why can't we template it?

 

 

 

You say, "It's obviously scheme," but I don't think that's clear at all. There are many other things it could be. Just one obvious example is that it could be matchups.

 

It could also be that - since KC beat them the last two years - that KC feels just fine with how they do against that D as long as the Pats offense isn't doing anything.

 

And in 2018, a championship year for the Pats, the Chiefs scored 40 points and put up 446 yards of offense, though the Pats scored even more, winning 43 - 40.

Edited July 26, 2021 by Thurman#1

[P Riv]

46 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You say, "It's obviously scheme," but I don't think that's clear at all. There are many other things it could be. Just one obvious example is that it could be matchups.

 

It could also be that - since KC beat them the last two years - that KC feels just fine with how they do against that D as long as the Pats offense isn't doing anything.

 

And in 2018, a championship year for the Pats, the Chiefs scored 40 points and put up 446 yards of offense, though the Pats scored even more, winning 43 - 40.

 

Fair points, but I still thinks its scheme.  NE almost completely shut down the run, took away the deep ball in the first half, held the Chiefs to 9 pts in the 1st half and built themselves a lead.  KC stayed in it with a few big plays, otherwise NE's defense held them down pretty well.  KC got a 97 yard kick return to set up a 3 yd drive for a TD, then there was a 67yd pass/run to a RB and a 75 yard pass to Hill.  Aside from 2 big plays, KC went the whole game with 300 yards of offense.  I watched a few minutes on Youtube, it looks like the Chiefs were on the ropes most of the time against that defensive scheme.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

Hopefully we bring in some girth.

 

I expect less girth than you do.  Except when Wilfork was there, New England often played without big guys in the middle.  They played with tough, solid, smart guys who executed.   Looking at the personnel the Bills have assembled, I think they're trying to do something similar. 

[Eastport bills]

41 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I expect less girth than you do.  Except when Wilfork was there, New England often played without big guys in the middle.  They played with tough, solid, smart guys who executed.   Looking at the personnel the Bills have assembled, I think they're trying to do something similar. 

You guys that think the same personnel and scheme that got dominated by KC, Tenn, Indy and LA will miraculously be better are just exuberant fans. Now if you said Star and a breakout year from Epenesa will be the difference makers, we can have that conversation. NE had awesome LBS and better DBs in their glory years. I'm as big a fan as anybody but I won't delude myself by saying this front 7, as constituted,will stop good running attacks. 

[Thurman#1]

47 minutes ago, P Riv said:

 

Fair points, but I still thinks its scheme.  NE almost completely shut down the run, took away the deep ball in the first half, held the Chiefs to 9 pts in the 1st half and built themselves a lead.  KC stayed in it with a few big plays, otherwise NE's defense held them down pretty well.  KC got a 97 yard kick return to set up a 3 yd drive for a TD, then there was a 67yd pass/run to a RB and a 75 yard pass to Hill.  Aside from 2 big plays, KC went the whole game with 300 yards of offense.  I watched a few minutes on Youtube, it looks like the Chiefs were on the ropes most of the time against that defensive scheme.

 

 

You're completely ignoring my point, most likely because it just makes sense.

 

You say that the Pats did well, so it must be scheme. I say, yeah, they did pretty well, but that doesn't mean it's scheme, there are other things it could be. Then you say, no, they did quite well, so it must be scheme.

 

Sorry, dude, ignore the argument or not, there are plenty of reasons besides scheme that some teams do well against certain others. Matchups being the very very common one, but there are plenty of others. There is no particular reason to think this is scheme beyond the fact that you simply appear to want to think so.

 

In KC's case, they are a team that consistently has games where they often appear to be sleep-walking through things until they get in trouble and wake up and do what they have to do. Against the Pats the past two years, they simply didn't need to wake up.

 

You're talking about the 2018 game when you say the Chiefs held them down pretty well except for big plays? Please. That's how it works with the Chiefs. They get a few big plays nearly every week. That's part of the reason they are good. You can't take away their big plays and argue that the rest of the way they weren't special, not unless you're willing to point out the obvious, that if you take away their big plays, their offense often doesn't look that good. That's not because they're not good. It's because they're an offense built to have big plays, and taking the big plays out is missing the point and distorting reality for no reason.

 

 And yeah, they got a long return, but again, even if you disregard that, they put up a ton of yards with just the offense and scored 33 even if you take away that TD, which you shouldn't. That was a very good game for KC's offense, with Mahomes seeing his first year of action. 

 

 

[Prospector]

On 7/22/2021 at 7:59 AM, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

'Mean' meant to imply wretched, spiteful and straight razor toting?

*
Or 'mean' meant to imply average? (Cue the analytics nerds!)

My wife said I was average looking, and I told that's just mean.

[Shaw66]

20 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

I'm as big a fan as anybody but I won't delude myself by saying this front 7, as constituted,will stop good running attacks. 

I dont know if they will be good enough to stop the run.  What I said is that McBeane tgunk this is the way to go to build an effective line.  You may disagree, but you aren't getting your wish. Bulls will be undersized this year, and we will see how that works. 

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

You guys that think the same personnel and scheme that got dominated by KC, Tenn, Indy and LA will miraculously be better are just exuberant fans. Now if you said Star and a breakout year from Epenesa will be the difference makers, we can have that conversation. NE had awesome LBS and better DBs in their glory years. I'm as big a fan as anybody but I won't delude myself by saying this front 7, as constituted,will stop good running attacks. 

 

 

Please. They didn't get dominated by Indy. They played pretty well, held them to 24 points, well below their scoring average, and won the game by stopping them on their last drive. The Colts got the ball left with 2:30 left needing only a field goal to tie, and the Bills D absolutely strangled them.

 

They put up a big turnover on the INT against the Rams, and stopped them on a crucial 4th down in the 3rd quarter, and both of those led to Buffalo TDs. And against Tennessee, the offense's three turnovers was a huge part of that awful showing. They also did OK against the Chiefs the first time around. 

 

And again, this is NOT the defense that played badly early in the year. At that point they were suffering from injuries and the lack of an off-season to allow them to figure out a way to get by without Star. They got much better late in the year with Milano back and Edmunds healthy and Oliver not having to play 1-tech anymore.

 

They weren't as good as they had been the past two years, but the last half of the year they were pretty solid.

[P Riv]

42 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You're completely ignoring my point, most likely because it just makes sense.

-snip

 

 

 

Not ignoring your point, its just that I went and watched a lot of the games in question on Youtube last night just for fun.  I'm going with what my eyes told me and not empty stats from some guy on a forum.  NE shut down the run, tried mostly successfully to take away the deep ball and appeared to double Kelce.  The last 5 out of 6 times they played KC they've shut them down in the first half like no other team, that's called a trend.  It was pointed out during one of the games by Jim Nantz actually.  An article that lays it out nicely: https://www.kansascity.com/sports/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/article246149130.html

 

Linked the wrong article: "

Luckily for the Chiefs, that was enough to get the victory, but that doesn’t change the fact that New England’s defense played about as well as anybody previously had against Mahomes.

Only five times with Mahomes as starting quarterback, the Chiefs have gone an entire half without scoring a touchdown. After Monday night, three of those instances have come against the Patriots. That makes it fair to ask how exactly New England was able to play that well against the Chiefs offense. The answer is really a mixture of talent and scheme, as well as Bill Belichick’s familiarity with Andy Reid."

https://slantroute.substack.com/p/how-new-england-slowed-down-patrick

Edited July 26, 2021 by P Riv

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, P Riv said:

 

I checked 2021 O-line ranks and I didn't realize that Pittsburgh was ranked near the bottom.  No wonder Big Ben got leaner and "faster", he may be running for his life.  Maybe that 11-0 start last year was a mirage.

Of those 11 wins only 4 were against teams that would have a winning record and only one was by a more than one score margin (a blowout against the Browns). And 5 out of the 7 wins they got against bad teams were by one score margins. 
 

I wouldn’t say it was a mirage as the Steelers defense was a legit good defense until they got hit hard by injuries and their offense was able to be decent enough working around their limitations.

 

I wouldn’t say 11-0 was a complete mirage as the defense before they got badly hurt was good but it certainly was slightly inflated and their 1-4 end to the season speaks to how they got hit hard by injuries and the inflated nature of their record.

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Please. They didn't get dominated by Indy. They played pretty well, held them to 24 points, well below their scoring average, and won the game by stopping them on their last drive. The Colts got the ball left with 2:30 left needing only a field goal to tie, and the Bills D absolutely strangled them.

 

They put up a big turnover on the INT against the Rams, and stopped them on a crucial 4th down in the 3rd quarter, and both of those led to Buffalo TDs. And against Tennessee, the offense's three turnovers was a huge part of that awful showing. They also did OK against the Chiefs the first time around. 

 

And again, this is NOT the defense that played badly early in the year. At that point they were suffering from injuries and the lack of an off-season to allow them to figure out a way to get by without Star. They got much better late in the year with Milano back and Edmunds healthy and Oliver not having to play 1-tech anymore.

 

They weren't as good as they had been the past two years, but the last half of the year they were pretty solid.

Solid.  I agree.  Not dominant, which we'd all like, but solid. 

 

I don't know, but I'd guess that McDermott is designing a defense that stops the pass effectively and stops the run well enough to get by.  I think McDermott believes that if he acquires and commits the kind of resources necessary to be a top-three run-stopping defense, then he's not going to be able to stop the pass the way he wants. 

 

The Bills gave up 120 yards a game rushing last season.   Top 20.  They had three bad games.   McD probably would be happy if he could shave 10 yards off that by bringing those three bad games down into the 150s or so.   And McDermott probably thinks he can do that with scheme and matchups.   He is not willing to bulk up the defensive line, because the bulk will hurt the pass rush he's trying to build.  

[Eastport bills]

26 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Please. They didn't get dominated by Indy. They played pretty well, held them to 24 points, well below their scoring average, and won the game by stopping them on their last drive. The Colts got the ball left with 2:30 left needing only a field goal to tie, and the Bills D absolutely strangled them.

 

They put up a big turnover on the INT against the Rams, and stopped them on a crucial 4th down in the 3rd quarter, and both of those led to Buffalo TDs. And against Tennessee, the offense's three turnovers was a huge part of that awful showing. They also did OK against the Chiefs the first time around. 

 

And again, this is NOT the defense that played badly early in the year. At that point they were suffering from injuries and the lack of an off-season to allow them to figure out a way to get by without Star. They got much better late in the year with Milano back and Edmunds healthy and Oliver not having to play 1-tech anymore.

 

They weren't as good as they had been the past two years, but the last half of the year they were pretty 

Most objective observers would say Josh put the team on his back and won the Indy game singlehandedly. Rivers inexplicably played like he was out of gas on the last drive but your right, the defense was gutty and resilient on the last drive. My final point is that if Star can improve the run defense and the LBs play better against some athletic TEs , we might be better. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 hours ago, P Riv said:

 

I checked 2021 O-line ranks and I didn't realize that Pittsburgh was ranked near the bottom.  No wonder Big Ben got leaner and "faster", he may be running for his life.  Maybe that 11-0 start last year was a mirage.

 

I think the 11-0 start last year was a function of the Steelers kind of playing some bad teams to start, but also playing a game no one expected - a very passing focused offense with an effective short passing game.  Steelers were near the bottom, 29 or 30, in YPA.  Once they played a couple of good teams (Ravens, Tenn) who could smother that, it became more clear they had nothing else.