It's Time to Mandate Vaccines

[The Frankish Reich]

2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Only way the numbers do not work is if we say the vaccine is essentially  useless after a couple of months.

Well ... no. 

Looking at those Erie County stats: they are completely consistent with the idea of the waning effectiveness of a vaccine, particularly after about 6 months. Many of the most at risk (particularly the elderly) completed their vaccinations by March. So fast forward 8 months, and what do we see? The gap between the vaccinated and unvaccinated has narrowed.

So the vaccinated should get boosters. That's what we've learned over the last several months. It's hardly astonishing that this is what we've learned. In a perfect world the vaccine would have been perfectly effective for a lifetime. You know the old saying "don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good." The vaccine is good. Really, really good.

As far as the mandate issue goes: I'm not arguing about mask mandates, etc. Most of those are arbitrary because we don't have good data on how effective they are. Outdoor mask mandates strike me as particularly silly. We would do a whole lot better upgrading ventilation systems or maybe even building office buildings where you can (weather permitting; probably not Buffalo) throw open a window.

 

Underlying all of this is a confused, ill-considered cost-benefit calculation. Vaccines are: (1) super effective, way, way, beyond any other response to COVID; (2) quite low cost, particularly to the individual. I just explained that my booster took all of 25 minutes, home-to-supermarket-back-to-home. If that's the cost to me a couple times a year, or even 3-4 times a year, it's nothing. The value to society is great. The arguments trying to chip away at this obvious hugely positive cost-benefit calculation are nonsense. They're things like the statistical illiteracy demonstrated here. So there's always the personal freedom fallback, and I will agree that this is an abstract good that we try to preserve, but not to the extent that people want to take it here. The infringement on one's liberty of getting yet another in a long list of required vaccines is minimal, particularly given that the vaccine has been proven safe. If you want to argue about this as an unwarranted infringement on personal liberty, you'll have to justify it by comparing it to other such infringements that we tolerate or even think are good.

Edited November 23, 2021 by The Frankish Reich

[plenzmd1]

43 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Well ... no. 

Looking at those Erie County stats: they are completely consistent with the idea of the waning effectiveness of a vaccine, particularly after about 6 months. Many of the most at risk (particularly the elderly) completed their vaccinations by March. So fast forward 8 months, and what do we see? The gap between the vaccinated and unvaccinated has narrowed.

So the vaccinated should get boosters. That's what we've learned over the last several months. It's hardly astonishing that this is what we've learned. In a perfect world the vaccine would have been perfectly effective for a lifetime. You know the old saying "don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good." The vaccine is good. Really, really good.

As far as the mandate issue goes: I'm not arguing about mask mandates, etc. Most of those are arbitrary because we don't have good data on how effective they are. Outdoor mask mandates strike me as particularly silly. We would do a whole lot better upgrading ventilation systems or maybe even building office buildings where you can (weather permitting; probably not Buffalo) throw open a window.

 

Underlying all of this is a confused, ill-considered cost-benefit calculation. Vaccines are: (1) super effective, way, way, beyond any other response to COVID; (2) quite low cost, particularly to the individual. I just explained that my booster took all of 25 minutes, home-to-supermarket-back-to-home. If that's the cost to me a couple times a year, or even 3-4 times a year, it's nothing. The value to society is great. The arguments trying to chip away at this obvious hugely positive cost-benefit calculation are nonsense. They're things like the statistical illiteracy demonstrated here. So there's always the personal freedom fallback, and I will agree that this is an abstract good that we try to preserve, but not to the extent that people want to take it here. The infringement on one's liberty of getting yet another in a long list of required vaccines is minimal, particularly given that the vaccine has been proven safe. If you want to argue about this as an unwarranted infringement on personal liberty, you'll have to justify it by comparing it to other such infringements that we tolerate or even think are good.

first, i do not believe my take is statistical illiteracy, unless you believe the vaccines at this time offer zero added benefit when it comes to severe illness that needs hospitalizations. The CDC itself says it "much less likely to need hospitalization"  in its November update. If you take them at face value, assign a value as to what that added protection"much less likely"  would be, and there is no other conclusion than in pure number of cases vaccinated have to be higher than unvaxed. Lets say that number was 6X...unless there was 6X more vaxed people than unvaxed, one would expect the percent of people in hospital to be much more skewed to the unvaxed....and we are no where near that. If that logic is flawed, and it may be, i am open to hearing why it is.

 

My real problem in all this is the absolute religion of "vax is our way out of Covid".. and it has become a religion at this point. If if was gunna lead us out of the Covid desert, we would not be coming up on a full year of vaccines and still talking about mask mandates and shutdowns like Polancarz . We were pretty close to same numbers last year as we are this year at same point in time all across the country,  much like we saw  in the southeast  in the  summers of  20 and 2021. But  Florida has 61% full vaxed, and WNY has 63%  this year.. how could they have been close to same numbers? Maybe seasonality plays a part? If its 100% Delta, and the Vax is the exact same...why we expecting different outcomes? I got Covid  4 1/2 months after my second shot...we gunna go down to a booster every 3 months? Once a month?

 

We know this thing is going to be endemic, it is coming back around seasonally as we see...and it is not because of unvaxed people. It is because its endemic, the vax is prolly like the flu shot and somewhere around 50% effective, and people are gunna die of Covid every stinking year to the end of time. 

 

We need to move on, vulnerable people need to protect themselves as best as possible and make decisions on how much risk they are willing to accept.

[The Frankish Reich]

25 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Lets say that number was 6X...unless there was 6X more vaxed people than unvaxed, one would expect the percent of people in hospital to be much more skewed to the unvaxed....and we are no where near that. If that logic is flawed, and it may be, i am open to hearing why it is.

Your logic is flawed. I really can't add anything to my long explanation above.

 

25 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

Maybe seasonality plays a part?

Yes. It is pretty well understood by now that seasonality plays a part.

 

25 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

I got Covid  4 1/2 months after my second shot...we gunna go down to a booster every 3 months? Once a month?

We'll have to see what's medically indicated. Probably 4.5 months was a little too long between shots based on the nature of the disease today? I'm not sure how it will play out in the future. I find it disappointing that a vaccine (or a two-shot vaccine regimen) doesn't seem to last longer; maybe improvements in the vaccine or the schedule by which it is administered will improve that. Disappointing, yes. Depressing, horrific? Absolutely not. It means we've got something that works, and even seems to work really well after a third/booster shot. Imagine if we had nothing that worked to suppress infection/hospitalization/death rates. THAT would be reason for depression. I'm optimistic.

Edited November 23, 2021 by The Frankish Reich

[plenzmd1]

7 minutes ago, The Frankish Reich said:

Your logic is flawed. I really can't add anything to my long explanation above.

 

Yes. It is pretty well understood by now that seasonality plays a part.

 

We'll have to see what's medically indicated. Probably 4.5 months was a little too long between shots based on the nature of the disease today? I'm not sure how it will play out in the future. I find it disappointing that a vaccine (or a two-shot vaccine regimen) doesn't seem to last longer; maybe improvements in the vaccine or the schedule by which it is administered will improve that. Disappointing, yes. Depressing, horrific? Absolutely not. It means we've got something that works, and even seems to work really well after a third/booster shot. Imagine if we had nothing that worked to suppress infection/hospitalization/death rates. THAT would be reason for depression. I'm optimistic.

I don't believe my logic is flawed, but i will admit i am using an arbitrary number as to added protection for not needing hospitalization. If we go on basis of no added benefit from vaccine in terms of hospitalizations, then I agree with your premise.

 

And i appreciate you going through it, and not only hurling insults like your boy who shall remain nameless.

 

And let me ask you this question. Here is Florida's chart with 61% vaxed...did the vaccines really work as advertised? Ny case rates appear the same.

 

 

 

New York appears to have same number of cases as last year at this time...again with vaccines

 

[The Frankish Reich]

3 minutes ago, plenzmd1 said:

I don't believe my logic is flawed, but i will admit i am using an arbitrary number as to added protection for not needing hospitalization. If we go on basis of no added benefit from vaccine in terms of hospitalizations, then I agree with your premise.

 

And i appreciate you going through it, and not only hurling insults like your boy who shall remain nameless.

 

And let me ask you this question. Here is Florida's chart with 61% vaxed...did the vaccines really work as advertised? Ny case rates appear the same.

 

 

 

New York appears to have same number of cases as last year at this time...again with vaccines

 

I'd need to see the months on this graph. So with the disclaimer that it's a guess:

My scientific explanation can be summed up with "Florida is weird." It is weird demographically (very high 65+ population), it is weird seasonally for the United States in general, and it is weird in that the composition of the population probably changes more dramatically season-to-season than any other state given the snowbird migrations (Arizona is most similar).

So I'm not sure what we can say about Florida when comparing it to other states.

[Big Blitz]

I feel so sorry and embarrassed for people that believe let alone defend any mask or vaccine mandate and anything coming from the "Maybe we should double mask" State.   

 

You're a coward and deserve to be ruled.  

 

 

The goal posts have shifted to "till a cure."  

 

 

Yes....the mandates absolutely "upend" life.  

 

Kids in masks in schools for life.  Masks whenever cases are "too high."  This is not what a free society does its what a moronic "govern me more please" society does.  It's impacted supply chains and its used to justify everything they want to do to increase power and Control.  

 

 

 

 

Ridiculous and illogical. 

Edited November 23, 2021 by Big Blitz

[JaCrispy]

42 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

I feel so sorry and embarrassed for people that believe let alone defend any mask or vaccine mandate and anything coming from the "Maybe we should double mask" State.   

 

You're a coward and deserve to be ruled.  

 

 

The goal posts have shifted to "till a cure."  

 

 

Yes....the mandates absolutely "upend" life.  

 

Kids in masks in schools for life.  Masks whenever cases are "too high."  This is not what a free society does its what a moronic "govern me more please" society does.  It's impacted supply chains and its used to justify everything they want to do to increase power and Control.  

 

 

 

 

Ridiculous and illogical. 

Some people fear freedom, because they don’t trust themselves to be responsible for their own lives...They actually feel better having someone else telling them what to do because it gives them a false sense of security...👍

[Sundancer]

13 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

Hey @Sundancer, have a question for you. If the whole point of the vaccine is it prevents hospitalization and severe illness, and yet 43% of those hospitalized in Erie county are fully vaxed, what is wrong with the following statement. 

 

A high percentage of those vaxed who get Covid do not go to hospital, so if hospitalization rate  are roughly 55-45, the vast majority of Covid cases Has To be in vaxed people.   Just has to be. 
 

what am I missing?

 

pandemic of the yet to be infected way more than of the unvaccinated. 
 

 

 

 

Not sure why you tagged me. What is your point? Vaccines don’t work? There are about 100 links to actual science, not whatever you’re peddling, to the contrary in this thread. 

[716er]

On 11/22/2021 at 3:25 PM, RiotAct said:

Hmmmmmmmmmmm

 

@716er, any thoughts?

 

More and more places will require vaccination so you don't need to wear a mask. It's happening all over the country, and in Erie County already.

 

Forever is also a long time.

[Big Blitz]

2 hours ago, 716er said:

 

More and more places will require vaccination so you don't need to wear a mask. It's happening all over the country, and in Erie County already.

 

 

Is this a joke?  You post this after the Commie Executive puts masks back on you?

 

 

Lol keep your head in the sand.  

 

 

They're already canceling New Year's. 

Edited November 24, 2021 by Big Blitz

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Is this a joke?  You post this after the Commie Executive puts masks back on you?

 

 

Lol keep your head in the sand.  

Yep, lamebrains like Poloncarz will insist on both. Seriously, if even the vaccine isn’t going to stop Covid a mask surely won’t. Going back to masking at almost year 3 is about the dumbest move by the County exec ever. 

[plenzmd1]

11 hours ago, Sundancer said:

 

Not sure why you tagged me. What is your point? Vaccines don’t work? There are about 100 links to actual science, not whatever you’re peddling, to the contrary in this thread. 

as i was discussing with @The Frankish Reich, if you believe they work, especially as a therapeutic and prevent hospitalization as advertised( we know they dont stop transmission)...lets say a factor of 6x more protection against hospitalization(CDC said 29X in August)...if those in hospital in Erie county  are 55-45 unvaxxed to vaxxeded...it means the vast majority of cases have to be in vaccinated people.

 

It means this is a pandemic of the not yet infected, not a pandemic of the un Vaxed.

 

Explain these numbers...same day last year and this year in NY.  A 25% increase in cases this year  in New York State with one of the highest vax rates in the country.

 

So, we gunna rely on scientific papers or real world numbers....tell me again how Vaccines prevent transmission of Covid? And please use empirical proof

 

cases November 24 2020...5478

 

 Cases November 22 2021...7214..

 

a 25% increase in cases year over year...with 

 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

Edited November 24, 2021 by plenzmd1

[SoCal Deek]

12 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

Some people fear freedom, because they don’t trust themselves to be responsible for their own lives...They actually feel better having someone else telling them what to do because it gives them a false sense of security...👍

Close, but not quite. This is what you happens when you raise up a citizenry that no longer aspires to anything. If you don’t think you’re going anywhere or have been told you can’t, won’t, or didn’t achieve anything on your own then you’re easily convinced to sit in the back seat and let others drive for you.  

[716er]

9 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

 

Is this a joke?  You post this after the Commie Executive puts masks back on you?

 

 

Lol keep your head in the sand.  

 

 

They're already canceling New Year's. 

 

The "Commie Executive" isn't requiring masks in places that require vax, so yes. That's the reason it was posted.

 

 

[SCBills]

Trash. 
 

The only redeeming part of this tweet is the ratio that this rep is receiving.  
 

 

Edited November 24, 2021 by SCBills

[Sundancer]

2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

as i was discussing with @The Frankish Reich, if you believe they work, especially as a therapeutic and prevent hospitalization as advertised( we know they dont stop transmission)

 

Vaccines appear to slow transmission (especially in the short term post injection) as compared to no-vax infection but I know that's not your point. 

 

2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

...lets say a factor of 6x more protection against hospitalization(CDC said 29X in August)...if those in hospital in Erie county  are 55-45 unvaxxed to vaxxeded...it means the vast majority of cases have to be in vaccinated people.

 

Oy vey. 

 

First, you're not talking science, you're talking a single statistic. If most of the people in EC in the hospital are vaccinated, it could be for any number of reasons, the most likely being...wait for it... that the most vulnerable people are hopefully mostly vaccinated! So of course they would be overrepresented in the hospital. 

 

2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

 

It means this is a pandemic of the not yet infected, not a pandemic of the un Vaxed.

 

Negative. 

 

2 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

 

Explain these numbers...same day last year and this year in NY.  A 25% increase in cases this year  in New York State with one of the highest vax rates in the country.

 

So, we gunna rely on scientific papers or real world numbers....tell me again how Vaccines prevent transmission of Covid? And please use empirical proof

 

cases November 24 2020...5478

 

 Cases November 22 2021...7214..

 

a 25% increase in cases year over year...with 

 

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/new-york/

 

The empirical proof is in many studies already cited. 

 

Did your Worldometers-based study take into account tests done, ages, seasonality, and perhaps...I don't know, the Delta variant transmissibility being twice previous variants? 

 

This isn't science talk. This is just shooting the ***** because you already have an opinion in hand. 

13 hours ago, 716er said:

 

More and more places will require vaccination so you don't need to wear a mask. It's happening all over the country, and in Erie County already.

 

Forever is also a long time.

 

It's actually kind of funny because some liberal places are starting to realize that going the opposite direction is the right way to go. Erie County almost elected a commie as mayor though, so I guess this should not surprise. 

[All_Pro_Bills]

2 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

First, you're not talking science, you're talking a single statistic. If most of the people in EC in the hospital are vaccinated, it could be for any number of reasons, the most likely being...wait for it... that the most vulnerable people are hopefully mostly vaccinated! So of course they would be overrepresented in the hospital.

Would you agree that, vaccinated or not, very rarely is anyone hospitalized (or dies) without some other condition or co-morbidity?  Such as obesity, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, high cholesterol, autoimmune deficiencies?  And these hospitalizations should be diagnosed and reported as primary diagnosis is  "x diagnosis w/COVID" rather than primary diagnosis is "COVID"?       

[plenzmd1]

26 minutes ago, Sundancer said:

 

Vaccines appear to slow transmission (especially in the short term post injection) as compared to no-vax infection but I know that's not your point. 

 

 

Oy vey. 

 

First, you're not talking science, you're talking a single statistic. If most of the people in EC in the hospital are vaccinated, it could be for any number of reasons, the most likely being...wait for it... that the most vulnerable people are hopefully mostly vaccinated! So of course they would be overrepresented in the hospital. 

 

 

Negative. 

 

 

The empirical proof is in many studies already cited. 

 

Did your Worldometers-based study take into account tests done, ages, seasonality, and perhaps...I don't know, the Delta variant transmissibility being twice previous variants? 

 

This isn't science talk. This is just shooting the ***** because you already have an opinion in hand. 

 

It's actually kind of funny because some liberal places are starting to realize that going the opposite direction is the right way to go. Erie County almost elected a commie as mayor though, so I guess this should not surprise. 

Uhmmm, Worldometers is NOT one of your beloved studies, it is REAL WORKD NUMBERS !!! 

 

So let me get this straight, in your world a study with 40k participants is more statically relevant than real world numbers with 39 million participants? Is that what you are arguing?
 

And seasonality? NYS cases are 25% higher than what they were last year on same date? Seasonality?

 

and if the Delta is twice as contagious even with the vax, and we giving same exact vax as before Delta.. why should we expect a different outcome. 
 

oh I know, cause the Fauci’s of the world say it’s just a booster needed. Same people who said no mask needed, same people who said vaxed folks  do not get or spread the virus, same people who said vax was 29 times more likely to keep you out of hospital. Same people who said masks will give 80% better chance not getting Covid just a few weeks ago… even better protection than the vax!  

Like I said, we all wanted to believe 12 months ago vax was all we needed to zero Covid. That’s never happening, this is now an endemic of the not previously infected, not the unvaxed. 
 

again, show me effectiveness sing empirical, real world numbers and not studies. I just have. 
 

 

[GaryPinC]

18 hours ago, plenzmd1 said:

I don't believe my logic is flawed, but i will admit i am using an arbitrary number as to added protection for not needing hospitalization. If we go on basis of no added benefit from vaccine in terms of hospitalizations, then I agree with your premise.

 

And i appreciate you going through it, and not only hurling insults like your boy who shall remain nameless.

 

And let me ask you this question. Here is Florida's chart with 61% vaxed...did the vaccines really work as advertised? Ny case rates appear the same.

 

 

 

New York appears to have same number of cases as last year at this time...again with vaccines

 

 

If you want to claim any intellectual honesty, why don't you do apples to apples and compare the death rates of New York to Florida and to NY surge in 2020?  Because that makes a strong pro-vaccination case while at the same time contrasting DeSantis's hands-off approach with New York's strict lockdown measures.  Biased much?

[Sundancer]

1 hour ago, All_Pro_Bills said:

Would you agree that, vaccinated or not, very rarely is anyone hospitalized (or dies) without some other condition or co-morbidity?  Such as obesity, hypertension, diabetes, heart disease, high cholesterol, autoimmune deficiencies?  And these hospitalizations should be diagnosed and reported as primary diagnosis is  "x diagnosis w/COVID" rather than primary diagnosis is "COVID"?       

Not sure what you quantify as "very rarely" exactly but yes. I think there's some region now reporting in this way. I just saw this come up...but I don't remember where. 

 

This doesn't mean Covid is less of a killer. Again, deaths are WAY up for a reason.